China has tried to portray itself as “neutral” in the Ukraine war, which has been under siege since Russia attacked the country. As Ukraine fought to protect its territory and sovereignty over the past year, Beijing has maintained its friendship with Russia and repeatedly stated that the “friendship between the two states has no limits; there are no ‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation.”
From such a vaunted “neutral” position, Beijing put forth, what was supposed to be a “peace plan,” a political settlement to the conflict. Despite skepticism regarding Beijing’s neutrality, given its close ties with Moscow, the promise of a peace plan elicited a degree of hope in many.
But the “plan,” made public, on the first anniversary of the war, after much hype, turned out to be a 12-point statement. Worse, it offers no actionable pathway toward peace. Instead, it is a “position paper” based on Beijing’s “principles.” For a government that prides itself as guided by “thought,” China’s statement hardly reflects a deeper understanding of the conflict.
In brief, the points read:
- Respecting all countries’ sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity and observing universally recognized international law, including the United Nations Charter.
- Abandoning the Cold War mentality and avoiding pursuing one nation’s security at the expense of others.
- Ceasing hostilities and supporting Russia and Ukraine in resuming direct dialogue to de-escalate the situation and reach a comprehensive ceasefire.
- Resuming peace talks and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis.
- Resolving the humanitarian crisis by increasing humanitarian assistance to relevant areas, protecting civilians, and providing safe and unimpeded humanitarian access.
- Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs) and supporting the exchange of POWs between Russia and Ukraine.
- Keeping nuclear power plants safe by avoiding armed attacks against them.
- Reducing strategic risks, preventing nuclear proliferation, and opposing chemical and biological weapons’ research, development, and use.
- Facilitating grain exports and supporting the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the cooperation initiative on global food security proposed by China.
- Stopping unilateral sanctions and avoiding the abuse of unilateral sanctions and “long-arm jurisdiction” against other countries.
- Keeping industrial and supply chains stable and opposing using the world economy as a tool or weapon for political purposes.
- Promoting post-conflict reconstruction of Ukraine and providing assistance to conflict zones.
While the document concedes that “There is no simple solution to a complex issue,” it also states, “Conflict and war benefit no one.” Even as the world agrees with those sentiments, mentioning sanctions as “unilateral” points to Beijing’s continued support of Moscow. Considering that Russia and China are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council with veto powers, it is doubtful whether the UNSC would have gotten around to “authorizing” any sanctions against the aggressor.
The fact that China resorted to terming the Ukraine War, which has killed or injured nearly 200000 people, as a “crisis” cannot be ignored. The vague and unimaginative peace plan, proposed after a year of fighting, is welcome only to the extent that a country is willing to present “peace” as a possibility instead of prolonging the conflict at any cost. Reports that Beijing is preparing to send weapons to the Russian war front add ambiguity to the proceedings.
Some points of Beijing’s peace plan reflect the one put forward by President Zelenskky. His proposal had also called for radiation and nuclear safety, food security, energy security, releasing prisoners and deportees, and restoring territorial integrity. The Ukrainian President had further demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops, stopping hostilities, and establishing justice for war crimes.
Kyiv has not rejected the Chinese overture toward peace. Before the “plan” was made public, Ukrainian officials had expressed cautious optimism and considered Beijing’s initiative a “good sign.” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said they intend to “carefully study it and draw conclusions.”
An interesting yet little-known fact is that the power to accept or reject a peace deal lies with the people of Ukraine. The country’s constitution requires that any peace deal be ratified by its people. It is too early to gauge Ukrainians’ reaction to China’s overture.
Bringing the two nations to the negotiation table will take much tact and diplomacy. Brokering a cessation of hostilities and lasting peace will require willingness on the part of not just Ukraine and Russia but neighboring states too. A year into the war, the prospect of peace talks, however vague, must give the world leaders the impetus to explore the possibility.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
#1. Putin Says Russia Has To Take Into Account NATO Nuclear Capability – Reuters
President Vladimir Putin said that Russia had no choice but to consider the nuclear capabilities of NATO as the U.S.-led military alliance was seeking the defeat of Russia.
“In today’s conditions, when all the leading NATO countries have declared their main goal as inflicting a strategic defeat on us so that our people suffer as they say, how can we ignore their nuclear capabilities in these conditions?” Putin told Rossiya 1 state television, according to TASS.
The West, Putin said, wanted to liquidate Russia.
#2. Ukraine’s Banksy Stamps Feature Art Of Putin In Judo Match – BBC
Ukraine has issued postage stamps featuring a mural by UK graffiti artist Banksy to mark the first anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion. The mural depicts a man resembling Russian President Vladimir Putin being flipped during a judo match with a young boy.
The original art is on a house that was devastated by Russian shelling in the town of Borodyanka, near the capital Kyiv.
A phrase with an abbreviated expletive addressing the Russian leader has been added to the bottom left corner of the stamps.
Banksy has produced artwork on buildings in several Ukrainian towns that have been among the worst hit during the ongoing war.
#3. German Leader Seeks Indian Support For Russia’s Isolation – A.P.
Indian PM Narendra Modi maintained said India wanted to end the conflict through dialogue and diplomacy. “India is ready to contribute to any peace initiative,” he added.
He has refrained from overt criticism of Russia as Moscow is a major supplier of arms, oil, and India’s other economic needs.
Following talks with the Indian Prime Minister, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stressed that developing countries were negatively impacted by the war’s energy and food shortages and hoped that India would help secure critical supplies to Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
#4. Biden Says He Doesn’t Expect China To Supply Arms To Russia – UPI
Contradicting others from within his administration, President Joe Biden says he does not expect China will send weapons to Russia to aid in its year-long invasion of Ukraine.
In an interview with ABC News, Biden asserted that he “doesn’t anticipate” Beijing will help arm Moscow as it wages war on Ukraine but added there would be a U.S. response if it did.
The remarks contradicted assertions made by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier this week, who warned Beijing is actively considering providing weapons and ammunition to aid Moscow in its war against Ukraine.
#5. China Refuses To Condemn Russia’s Ukraine Invasion During G20 Deadlock – BBC
Finance ministers of the world’s largest economies have failed to agree on a closing statement following a summit in India after China refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Beijing declined to accept parts of a G20 statement that deplored Russia’s aggression “in the strongest terms.” Moscow said “anti-Russian” Western countries had “destabilized” the G20.
It comes after China this week published a plan to end the conflict that was viewed by some as pro-Russian.
India, which hosted this week’s G20 talks in Bengaluru, issued a wide-ranging “chair’s summary” from the meeting, noting “different assessments of the situation” in Ukraine and on sanctions imposed on Russia.
#6. Macron To Visit China, Seek Xi’s Help To End Russia-Ukraine War – Al Jazeera
French President Emmanuel Macron will visit China in April to seek the Chinese government’s help ending Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The announcement came after China published a 12-point position paper that called for a ceasefire and a “political settlement” to end the year-long conflict.
Beijing has sought to position itself as a neutral party on the conflict, even as it has maintained close ties with Russia and helped scuttle a joint statement condemning the war at a G20 gathering in India.
#7. ‘Fab 4’ Chip Group’s Senior Officials Discussed Supply Chain Resilience At First Meeting: Taiwan – WION
Taiwan’s foreign ministry said that the United States-led “Fab 4” or “Chip 4” semiconductor alliance held its first meeting of senior officials last week.
The officials from four countries, Taiwan, the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, took part in the conversation centered around maintaining the resilience of the semiconductor supply chain.
The “Fab” in the name refers to a shorthand of an industry term for the fabrication plants where chips are made and used for virtually everything from fridges to fighter jets.
#8. Jordan To Host Israel-Palestine Talks As Violence Escalates – Al Jazeera
Jordan is set to host a meeting between top Israeli and Palestinian officials to halt a surge in deadly violence in the occupied West Bank that has stoked fears of a wider escalation.
The meeting on Sunday will be held in the Red Sea port of Aqaba and will be attended by representatives from the United States and Egypt.
The planned talks came days after Israeli forces raided in the occupied West Bank city of Nablus, killing 11 Palestinians. The death toll in Wednesday’s raid was the highest since the second Intifada of 2000-2005.
#9. U.S. Nuclear-Powered Submarine Arrives In Busan – Yonhap
The Los Angeles-class fast attack submarine USS Springfield docked at the naval base in Busan for a “scheduled port visit” in an apparent show of force and a warning to North Korea against provocations.
The rare disclosure of the submarine’s deployment to the South appears intended to send a stern warning to North Korea following repeated missile provocations.
North Korea has strongly protested the U.S. deployment of its strategic assets to the Korean Peninsula and the allies’ combined drills.
#10. North Korean Food Shortage Worsens – A.P.
Speculation about the East Asian country’s chronic food insecurity has flared as its top leaders prepare to discuss the “very important and urgent task” of formulating a correct agricultural policy.
Unconfirmed reports say an unspecified number of North Koreans have been dying of hunger, but experts say there is no sign of mass deaths or famine.
“Kim Jong Un can’t advance his nuclear program stably if he fails to resolve the food problem fundamentally because public support would be shaken,” said Lim Eul-chul, a professor at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in South Korea’s capital Seoul.
#11. EU Sanctions Russian Wagner Group For African Operations – D.W.
Among the EU’s latest package of Russian sanctions, the Wagner Group mercenary company members were included for alleged crimes committed in Africa. The group’s exact African footprint is disputed, but it’s growing.
The Wagner Group was already placed under EU sanctions in 2021, and the U.S. recently labeled it a “transnational criminal organization.”
The additional sanctions announced against Russia’s Wagner Group mercenary and economic organization were for “human rights abuses” committed in the Central African Republic, Mali, Sudan, and Ukraine.
#12. Brazil Moves On Illegal Mines In Indigenous Yanomami Territory – AFP
Brazilian authorities this week intensified their fight against illegal mining on the land of the Indigenous Yanomami people, sending helicopters over the Amazon jungle in search of clandestine dig sites.
Yanomami leaders say some 20,000 clandestine miners have invaded their territory, killing Indigenous people, sexually abusing women and adolescents, and contaminating rivers with the mercury they use to separate gold from sediment.
Illegal mining rose sharply during the 2019-2022 presidency of Jair Bolsonaro, who favored opening Indigenous lands to such activity.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
