fbpx
The Daily BS • Bo Snerdley Cuts Through It!

Get my Daily BS twice-a-day news stack directly to your email.


Bidenflation hits 15.3% as prices stay high

by

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released by the government on Wednesday showed a 4.9% year-over-year increase in prices from April 2022 to April 2023, declining from a rate of 5.0% in March, 6.0% in February, and 6.4% in January. The CPI has declined steadily from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June to 4.9% in April. However, the CPI rose 0.4% last month after adjusting for seasonality and 0.5% on an unadjusted basis.

The media headlines read:

Annual inflation cooled last month to the lowest level since April 2021

Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations

But few media outlets provided context, partly because doing so would shed the Biden administration in a terrible light and does not fit the narrative. But numbers do not lie, so, we are happy to oblige and fill in the gaps.

Our conclusion: The Biden economy continues to be the worst-performing going back to President Carter. From February 2021, the first full month that President Biden served in office, the price of every commodity, from food, to gasoline, to used cars, and air tickets, continues to rise. The rate of rise has slowed, but prices are still increasing month over month.

As we have noted numerous times, President Biden is extremely irresponsible for standing his ground and not negotiating with the GOP to lower spending. His reckless spending has resulted in inflation levels not seen for 40 years.

America’s debt burden is higher as the cost of servicing America’s deficits goes up, with inflation being so high. Each time the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to contain inflation, the U.S. government must also pay higher interest rates to service its ballooning debt.

The CPI inflation rate measures how much more expensive things are getting over time. The government calculates the increase in the CPI rate over 12 months, so the base for April 2023 is April 2022, and for March 2023 is March 2022.

In April 2023, the CPI index was 303.363, 4.9% higher than its base of 289.109 for April 2022. And in March 2023, the CPI index was 301.836, 5.0% higher than its base of 287.504 for March 2022.

Between March 2022 and April 2022, the base increased sharply by 1.605 points or 0.56%. Even though the CPI index increased by 0.5% between March and April 2023, the headline CPI rate dropped from 5.0% to 4.9% because of the “base effect.”

In other words, the rate seemed lower than it actually was because the base was higher in April 2022. Things were getting more expensive but more expensive at a slower rate than the previous year. Only in Washington is this good news.

TIPP CPI

We developed the TIPP CPI, a metric that uses February 2021, the month after President Biden’s inauguration, as its base. We measure the rate of change in the economy from this base. All TIPP CPI measures are anchored to the base month of February 2021, making it exclusive to the economy under President Biden’s watch.

We use the relevant Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) underlying data but recalibrate it to arrive at the TIPP CPI. CPIs are index numbers that give Americans a sense of how prices impact their lives, much like the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a bellwether of the stock market.

But we convert index numbers to percent changes when we refer to TIPP CPI and BLS CPI.

Bidenflation, measured by TIPP CPI using the same underlying data, stood at 15.3% in April. It was 14.8% in March, 14.4% in February, and 13.7% in January.

Significant inflation had already set in by the middle of 2021. In April 2022, CPI inflation was 8.3 percent. The official CPI year-over-year increases will compare prices to inflated bases in the coming months. The year-over-year calculation may moderate the statistics, but you will still feel the pinch of inflation.

TIPP CPI vs. BLS CPI

The following four charts present details about the new metric.

The annual CPI increase reported by BLS is 4.9% for April 2023. Compare this to the TIPP CPI of 15.3%, a 10.4-point difference. Prices have increased by 15.3% since President Biden took office. On an annualized basis, TIPP CPI is 6.7%.

Food prices increased by 18.5% under President Biden’s watch compared to only 7.7% as per BLS CPI, a difference of 10.8 points.

TIPP CPI data show that energy prices increased by 32.9%. But, according to the BLS CPI, energy prices declined by 5.1%. The difference between the two is a whopping 37.9 points.

The Core CPI is the price increase for all items, excluding food and energy. The Core TIPP CPI was 13.4% compared to 5.5% BLS CPI in the year-over-year measure, a 7.9-point difference.

Further, gasoline prices have increased by 43.7% since President Biden took office, whereas the BLS CPI shows that gasoline price has improved by 12.2%, a difference of 55.9 points.

Used car prices have risen by 28.7% during President Biden’s term. The BLS CPI shows that the prices have dropped by 6.6%, a difference of 35.3 points.

Inflation for air tickets under President Biden is 49.4% compared to the BLS CPI finding of improvement of 0.9%, a difference of 50.2 points.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

Americans’ Concerns

The latest Investor’s Business Daily/TIPP Poll, completed earlier this month, shows that nine in ten (91%; 89% in April) survey respondents are concerned about inflation. Throughout the past year, inflation concerns have stayed above 85%. The share of “very concerned” has been over 50% for twelve consecutive months.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Inflation concerns
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Inflation concerns (longitudinal)

Over half (52%, 45% in April) say their wages have not kept up with inflation. Only 23% (28% in April) say their income has kept pace with inflation.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Have your earnings kept pace with inflation?

This statistic hovered in the low twenties for most of the last year. The positive change in the recent three months petered out this month.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Have your earnings kept pace with inflation? (longitudinal)

As a result of inflation, Americans are cutting back on household spending.

Most Americans are spending less. They are cutting back on eating out (79%), entertainment (78%), purchasing big-ticket items (78%), holiday/vacation travel (75%), and memberships/subscriptions (66%).

Many (63%) are cutting back on even good causes such as charity giving. Nearly three out of every five (57%) households spend less on groceries. The high gasoline prices forced 56% to cut back on local driving.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Which of the following activities have you reduced?

Inflation Direction

The chart below compares the 12-month average of monthly changes against the 6-month and the 3-month averages. We also show the reading for April 2023.

The 12-month average considers 12 data points and presents a long-term reference, while the six-month and three-month averages consider recent data points.

To better understand, compare the three-month average to April 2023 data. For “All items,” the three-month average was 0.30% vs. 0.4% in April 2023. The reading this month was higher than the three-month average showing a pick-up. Hence it is good.

The April reading for Food (0.00%) is lower than the 3-month average of 0.13%, lower than the 6-month average of 0.32%, and the 12-month average of 0.63%. The downward trend shows improvement.

The Energy situation became worse in April with a spike of 0.6%. The increase in April 2023 (0.60%) exceeded the three-month moving average of -1.17%, indicating deterioration.

All items less food and energy” is called “core inflation,” i.e., after removing volatile food and energy components. The core inflation reading of 0.40% in April is lesser than the three-month average of 0.43%, indicating improvement relative to the past three months. However, the 3-month average of 0.43% is greater than the 6-month average of 0.40% showing inflation pickup. We interpret this as a mixed situation.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Inflation direction

With an inverted yield curve, short-term U.S. treasuries pay higher interest rates than long-term U.S. treasuries. The closing yields on Wednesday were:

  • 5.218% for the 3-month Treasury bill
  • 5.149% for the 6-month Treasury bill
  • 4.846% for the 1-year Treasury bill
  • 4.029% for the 2-year Treasury
  • 3.842% for the 30-year

The inverted yield curve is a leading indicator of lower inflation but also a leading indicator of recession.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Yield – U.S. Treasurys

In a recent IBD/TIPP Poll, over one-half (55%) believe the economy is in a recession, and another 62% (56% in April) think the economy is not improving.

To access the TIPP CPI readings each month, you can visit tippinsights.com. We’ll publish the TIPP CPI and our analysis in the days following the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The upcoming release of TIPP CPI is on June 13, 2023. We’ll also post a spreadsheet in our store for download.

Hey, want to dig deeper? Download data from our store and pay what you can afford!

Want to understand better? We recently wrote an explainer that sixth graders could understand.  Everyone can benefit from it. Milton Friedman’s Priceless Lessons On Inflation

TIPP Picks

Must Watch/Read – Selected by tippinsights Editorial Board

Biden Unleashes The Regulatory Kraken — And There’s No Land In Sight
In the span of a few weeks, the Biden administration has proposed regulations that would effectively ban gas stoves, force a massive shift to electric cars, sharply raise the cost of dishwashers, increase loan costs for frugal borrowers, regulate puddles as “navigable waters,” and limit hunting and…
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

 

Kudlow: McCarthy Achieves Major Victory Over Biden in Debt Ceiling Talks
Now, I want to turn briefly to the debt ceiling talks. However the mainstream media plays it, or the White House for that matter, the fact is that Speaker McCarthy has knocked President Biden off his clean debt ceiling perch, and has already achieved a major victory in the battle
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

 

How Much Wind Killing Do We Want?
By David Wojick for CFACT | May 10th, 2023 That rapidly growing wind power development kills birds in ever increasing numbers is clear. That it also kills whales and other marine mammals is becoming clear. So the policy question is how much killing is enough, before we stop killing more? This
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

 

Whatever Happened To The Healing Power Of Positive Thinking?
By Seth Smith, the Brownstone Institute | May 10, 2023 In March of 2015, I suffered a severe concussion in a cycling accident which left me incapacitated for months, with dizziness, nausea and cognitive deficiencies of all kinds. Amidst rounds of testing and occupational therapy, my brilliant neur…
Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

 

TIPP Takes

Geopolitics And Geoeconomics

1. Zelensky Says Ukraine Needs More Time For Counter-Offensive – BBC

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said his country needs more time to launch a much-anticipated counter-offensive against Russian forces as its military awaits the delivery of promised military aid.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

The expected attack could be decisive in the war, redrawing frontlines that, for months, have remained unchanged. It will also be a crucial test for Ukraine, eager to prove that the weapons and equipment it has received from the West can result in significant battlefield gains.


2. Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Plant Warns Of ‘Catastrophic Lack’ Of Workers Amid Russian Evacuation Plans – RFEe/RL

Enerhoatom, the operator of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant, warned that Russia plans to forcibly “evacuate” about 3,100 employees of Europe’s largest nuclear station, which already faces a “catastrophic lack of qualified personnel.”

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

3. French Parliament Calls On EU To List Wagner As A ‘Terrorist Group’ – Rfi

The French parliament adopted a resolution calling the European Union to formally label the Russian mercenary force Wagner a “terrorist group.”

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

The resolution, non-binding and symbolic, passed with unanimous support across the political spectrum.


4. Moscow Hosts Landmark Turkey-Syria Rapprochement Talks – AP

Russia’s foreign minister is hosting his counterparts from Turkey, Syria, and Iran for talks to normalize Turkish-Syrian relations.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

In his opening speech, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov expressed hope that the meeting would pave the way to drafting a road map for normalizing Turkish-Syrian relations. Lavrov said he sees Moscow’s task as “not only in consolidating politically the progress that has been made but also in determining general guidelines for further movement.”


5. China’s Cash-Strapped Local Governments Can’t Pay Workers On Time – Al-Jazeera

In 2022, each of China’s 31 provinces and municipalities, except for Shanghai, reported fiscal deficits, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

Excessive spending on “zero-Covid”-related policies and the downturn in the real estate market have contributed significantly to local government’s financial woes.


6. United States Opens Tonga Embassy As It Pushes For Pacific Influence – Radio Free Asia

The U.S. opened an embassy in Tonga on Wednesday as it continued efforts to bolster its diplomatic presence in Pacific island countries vying for influence with China.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

The opening of the U.S. embassy in the Tongan capital Nuku’alofa follows the reopening of the U.S. embassy in the Solomon Islands in February after a three-decade absence. The United States also has said it wants embassies in Vanuatu and Kiribati in addition to its existing missions in countries such as Fiji and Papua New Guinea.


7. Protesters Disrupt Volkswagen Shareholder Meeting Over Alleged Uyghur Forced Labor – Radio Free Asia

Throwing cake and impersonating Chinese President Xi Jinping, activists staged protests inside and outside Volkswagen’s shareholder meeting on Wednesday over the German carmaker’s alleged use of Uyghur forced labor in Xinjiang, where it has a joint venture plant.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

Outside the hall, activists wore a big-headed mask of Xi and a flat paper mask of Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume, who stood arm-in-arm. The Xi figure held a metal ring attached to a chain leading to two handcuffed people representing Uyghur workers in blue laborer uniforms.


8. Jimmy Lai: Son Of Jailed Hong Kong Tycoon Condemns UK ‘Hypocrisy’ – BBC

The British son of a jailed Hong Kong media tycoon has denounced the “hypocrisy” of the UK government.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High
Jimmy Lai

Sebastien Lai said Britain had failed to condemn the ongoing crackdown on dissent in Hong Kong sufficiently. Last year Jimmy Lai was jailed for almost six years for fraud.


9. Germany Mulls New Border Controls As The Number Of Migrants Crossing The Border Soars – Rfi

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the heads of Germany’s 16 states are considering tighter border controls and new deportation rules as they hold crunch talks to address soaring migration.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

In the first four months of 2023, some 101,981 asylum applications were filed in Germany, an increase of 78 percent compared to the same period in 2022.


The Farda Briefing: Poor Iranians Sell Their Organs Amid Deepening Economic Crisis

An Iranian newspaper has reported that many poverty-stricken Iranians are selling their organs to make ends meet.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

The daily Jahan-e Sanat said in a May 4 report that kidneys, bone marrow, parts of livers, and “anything else that can be transplanted are being bought and sold on the black market” in Iran.

The newspaper said many organ sellers are men and women aged between 18 and 45. Some of them, the report said, have attempted to sell their organs in neighboring countries, including Turkey, for up to $15,000.


10. Pakistan Arrests Hundreds As Imran Khan Charged With Corruption – Infographics – tippinsights

Pakistan’s former prime minister Imran Khan has pleaded not guilty to corruption charges a day after his arrest sparked violent protests around the country.

Bidenflation Hits 15.3% As Prices Stay High

Nearly 1,000 people have been arrested, police say, and eight people have died nationwide in the protests. Tuesday’s arrest of the former cricket hero and Pakistan’s most popular politician, according to opinion polls, came at a precarious time for the country facing a foreign exchange shortage and a months-long delay of an IMF bailout.


📧
We welcome readers’ letters via email. If your letter is published, you get to ask a question in the TIPP Poll for free.
Please email [email protected]

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *