President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gotten almost everything he asked for from the West in the past fifteen months to defend his nation. In his words, Ukraine is fighting not just for its territorial sovereignty but for the world’s democracies.
He recently took his demands to the second summit of the European Political Community in Moldova. But, here, for the first time since Russian tanks rolled into Ukrainian land in February of 2022, President Zelenskyy may find his demands and requests denied.
The organization, which provides a platform for Europe’s democratic nations to come together and discuss common challenges, heard another request for more arms to defeat Russia. While the West, led by the United States, has pledged to continue to support Ukraine for “as long as it takes,” his demands for a “clear invitation” to NATO and a “clear positive decision” on Ukrainian EU membership may be put on hold again.
Kyiv has been waiting to be admitted into the security fold for the past fourteen years, a move Russia perceived as a direct threat at its border. Before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Moscow had stated that it would back down if NATO guaranteed that Kyiv would not be allowed to become a NATO member. The U.S. and, by default, NATO failed to reassure President Putin, and the rest, is history.
It is well accepted that the troop built-up along the Russia-Ukraine border was a countermove to the security pact between the U.S. and Ukraine that the Biden administration pushed through the year before.
The fourth point of the Preamble of the U.S.-Ukraine Charter on Strategic Partnership, signed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on November 10, 2021, reads: Emphasize unwavering commitment to Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea and extending to its territorial waters in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, which threatens regional peace and stability and undermines the global rules-based order. Russia saw Kyiv’s burgeoning closeness to America and the increasing defense cooperation as an existential threat. Moscow reacted.
Now fighting for survival, Kyiv is expanding its demands to become part of NATO and be assured of Article 5 protections. Enshrined in the article is the principle of “collective defense,” wherein an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all.” If Article 5 kicks in, the war will involve many European nations and America. In effect, Ukraine is making the very demands that drove it to the current crisis.
It is unlikely that what was denied to Kyiv for the past dozen or more years will now be offered pronto. President Biden has ruled out a direct confrontation between the U.S. and Russia (the only saving grace in his dismal handling of the war). Should Ukraine become a NATO member, American troops will be forced to hit the ground to defend Ukrainian land, expending American blood and treasure, an escalation for which Americans are not ready. Indeed, the core strategy of America has been to weaken Russia by outsourcing the actual fighting to Ukrainians, by showering Ukraine with arms, money, and tactical support for as long as it takes.
Although NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg told reporters, “Moscow does not have a veto against NATO enlargement,” with the mid-July summit in Vilnius looming ahead, some NATO members are apprehensive about inviting Kyiv into the fold now.
Hungary has already let it be known that Ukraine’s membership cannot be on the agenda at the upcoming summit. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock also expressed reservations saying, “NATO’s open door policy remains in place, but at the same time, it is clear that we cannot talk about accepting new members [who are] in the midst of a war.”
The paradox cannot be lost on many. Ukraine’s NATO ambitions are largely responsible for the current war. Now, the war will most probably keep the country out of the military alliance.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Ukraine: Zelenskyy ‘Ready’ To Stage Counteroffensive – D.W.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said his army is ready to stage a much-awaited counteroffensive against Russia but warned of mass casualties unless Western allies can provide more military aid.
In particular, Zelenskyy called for more deliveries of the U.S.-made Patriot air defense system, which he said was the only weapon to defend Ukraine’s skies.
2. Ukraine Says Inspections Found Nearly A Quarter Of Its Air-Raid Shelters Locked Or Unusable – A.P.
Concerns around civilian safety spiked in Ukraine as officials announced that an inspection had found nearly a quarter of the country’s air-raid shelters locked or unusable.
The inspection came just days after a woman in Kyiv allegedly died waiting outside a shuttered shelter during a Russian missile barrage.
The Ukrainian interior ministry said that of the “over 4,800” shelters it had inspected, 252 were locked and a further 893 “unfit for use.”
3. China Says It Seeks Dialogue With U.S. But Warns Over Taiwan – D.W.
China’s defense minister, Li Shangfu, said Beijing is open to a military dialogue with the U.S. But he stressed that China will not tolerate any provocations regarding Taiwan.
Li’s comments at Shangri-La Dialogue came a day after U.S. Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin criticized China for declining an official invitation for a meeting with his Chinese counterpart on the summit’s sidelines.
4. U.S. Slams China’s Navy For ‘Unsafe’ Actions In Taiwan Strait – Al Jazeera
The United States has accused the Chinese navy of executing “unsafe” maneuvers near an American destroyer that transited through the sensitive Taiwan Strait.
The incident on Saturday was the second close encounter between the American and Chinese militaries in the Asia Pacific region in less than ten days.
5. Chinese Dissidents Open Tiananmen Museum In New York – AFP
Chinese dissidents who took part in the 1989 Tiananmen Square protests unveiled in New York City a museum dedicated to remembering the “democratic dreams of the Chinese people” two days before the 34th anniversary of the uprising’s “brutal suppression.”
“The events of 1989 had an impact on China but also on the entire world,” said Wang Dan, founder of the tiny museum and a leading figure in the Tiananmen Square student movement.
6. World’s Spy Chiefs Meet In Secret Conclave In Singapore: Report – Reuters
Senior officials from about two dozen major intelligence agencies held a secret meeting on the fringes of the Shangri-La Dialogue security meeting in Singapore this weekend.
The Singapore government organizes such meetings and have been discreetly held at a separate venue alongside the security summit for several years, sources said.
7. U.S., EU Officials Urge Kosovo, Serbia To De-Escalate Ethnic Tensions – UPI
American and European officials are calling on the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia to de-escalate tensions in northern Kosovo, where dozens of citizens and UN peacekeepers have been hurt during protests.
Tensions have been high since late May when several northern Kosovo towns elected ethnic Albanian mayors in majority Serbian populations.
8. Rishi Sunak Considers Global AI Watchdog To Oversee Threats: Report – PTI
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is considering a London-based global artificial intelligence (AI) watchdog to oversee any threats posed by the fast-growing technology.
Among the ideas under consideration in Downing Street is setting up a global AI authority in London, modeled on the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
9. Israelis Rally Against Netanyahu’s Judicial Plan For 22nd Week – Al Jazeera
The protests, now in their 22nd week, continued despite Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s announcement in March that the contentious legal proposals were being put on hold.
“We will keep demonstrating to show them that even if they have paused in the reform plan, we will stay mobilized – they will not be able to pass laws on the sly,” said a protestor.
10. U.S., Europe Resume Discussions Over Ways To Deal With Iran’s Growing Nuclear Program – WION
The U.S. and European countries have renewed discussions on ways to confront Iran over its nuclear movements amid fears that the country’s extension of its program would trigger a regional war.
The move underlines concerns about the growing crisis as Tehran has augmented uranium to such levels that United States officials have cautioned that it could beget adequate material for a nuclear weapon in less than two weeks.
11. North Korean Leader’s Sister Slams UNSC Meeting On Space Rocket Launch – Yonhap
The sister of Kim Jong-un lambasted last week’s meeting of the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) on the country’s failed space rocket launch as “the most unfair and biased act of interfering in internal affairs.”
Kim Yo-jong expressed displeasure over Friday’s open UNSC briefing, stressing the North will continue to exercise “all the lawful rights” as a sovereign state, including one to launch satellites.
12. Global Employment Gap Grows As Poor Countries Struggle To Recover Like Rich Ones – RFI
Some 191 million people around the world will be unemployed this year, according to the ILO’s annual employment report.
That’s 5.3 percent of the global workforce compared to 5.4 percent in 2022.
Most of the recovery, however, is limited to high-income countries that have recovered more quickly than expected from the economic impacts of the Covid pandemic.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
