If you are tired of war fatigue, brace yourself for more war. Eighteen more months of conflict, to be precise.
No one knows if our prediction is accurate, but the truth is that even people in the Biden administration don’t have a clue. Every war to date in which the United States has been involved has had a specific objective, many times, breached because of scope creep. But the goal has always been established, often with a vote in Congress to secure funding. The idea is to get the American people behind the war effort.
President Biden has cleverly avoided identifying a defined objective other than to have his senior cabinet officials talk in broad terms. Speaking at the U.N. Security Council, Secretary Antony Blinken said: “We cannot – we will not – allow President Putin to get away with it. Defending Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity is about much more than standing up for one nation’s right to choose its own path, fundamental as that right is. It’s also about protecting an international order where no nation can redraw the borders of another by force.”
The above declaration does nothing to clarify when the war will end. If anything, President Biden frequently says that America will support Ukraine for “as long as it takes.” So, we have a war for which Congress has never voted (other than to provide emergency funds), the objective of which has been outsourced to a foreign leader, and the timeline is entirely open-ended. If anyone needs proof that President Biden is an irresponsible steward of taxpayer funds, this is it.
How can we predict that the war will continue through Jan 2025? For the Biden administration, it is all politics all the time.
The worst move Biden could make is to end the war before the 2024 election. If he did, he would open himself to negative news stories about what the war accomplished – short of a complete rout of the Russian army and Ukraine returning to the pre-2014 borders before Russia took Crimea. President Zelenskyy has trapped himself into a corner by repeatedly stating this as his objective when the world knows Russia would never compromise here. If Zelenskyy threatens Crimea, Putin is more likely to deploy nuclear weapons, as Putin has repeatedly stated that he would not hesitate to defend any existential threats to Russia. The world would never support an escalation of that kind.
Biden will also take flak from Republicans on the campaign trail, who will insist that Biden has ruined America’s standing in the world by committing the United States to another failed effort (Afghanistan, Vietnam). Biden’s main selling point is that he championed America’s return to lead the international world order – a point that he can’t make if the war ended before the election and Ukraine did not accomplish total victory.
So, the war will go on past November 2024.
If either Trump or DeSantis wins the election, the war funding will stop on the first day of their presidency in 2025. Both candidates have been cynical about America’s involvement from the start. History is behind them too. In Vietnam (Nixon), Iraq (Obama), and Afghanistan (Biden), it took a president from the opposing party to stop a war. While “bringing the troops home” is a rallying cry and does not apply to Ukraine, not funding an endless war can be an equally potent political point.
The GOP winner also reads tea leaves and knows that angling for peace will elevate their stature worldwide.
Turkish president Erdoğan resoundingly won reelection in a runoff, much to the ire of the entire Western coalition. Erdoğan, who helped engineer the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine and Russia, has championed peace and ending hostilities since the conflict started.
Last week, an African delegation of leaders from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda visited Moscow to argue for a 10-point peace deal.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is being wined and dined at a state visit in Washington, including being offered a chance to address a joint session of Congress. Modi, a clever politician facing reelection challenges back home after his party faced a rout in a recent state election, is unlikely to budge from his neutral stance in arguing for peace, a stance that has given hungry Indian motorists affordable Russian oil at huge discounts.
China, too, has argued for peace, and the GOP winner’s move would be opening for Beijing to begin normalizing a challenging relationship.
If President Biden wins reelection – and depending upon how close the results are – he could either double down, arguing that he received a mandate for more war, or seek a peace deal given that Washington will have to assume the lion’s share of any reconstruction. We predict the latter, as he can use the elections as a pivot to change direction to build bi-partisan support in Congress. Second-term presidents are always thinking about their legacy, and Biden would rather be remembered for peace than for a war that goes on forever.
Until Jan 2025, however, expect the needless and senseless war to continue.
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Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Russia: US And UK ‘Fully Dragged Into Conflict’ If Crimea Bombed – Al Jazeera
Moscow alleges Kyiv plans to strike the annexed Crimean Peninsula with US-supplied HIMARS long-range rocket systems and British-supplied Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
“The use of these missiles outside the zone of our special military operation would mean that the United States and Britain would be fully dragged into the conflict and would entail immediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine,” Russian Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu said.
2. UN Chief Calls For Acceleration Of Black Sea Grain Deal Exports – Reuters
UN Chief Antonio Guterres was disappointed by a slowing pace of ship inspections and the exclusion of Pivdennyi (Yuzhny) port – one of three Ukrainian ports covered by the Black Sea export deal.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said last week that Russia was considering withdrawing from the Black Sea grain deal.
3. Russia Moves To Legalize Prisoners Fighting In Ukraine War – Al Jazeera
The Russian parliament’s lower house, the State Duma, has approved legislation to pardon criminal convicts who volunteer to join Russian forces fighting in Ukraine.
The move aimed at boosting troop numbers during the first stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
The Wagner mercenary force first adopted the practice of recruiting prisoners and criminal suspects for the war last year before Russia’s Ministry of Defence took over prison recruitment in early 2023.
4. Russian Report Says Israel Denied Plans To Transfer Merkava Tanks To Ukraine – Al Arabiya
Reports of the possibility of Israel supplying Merkava tanks from IDF surpluses to Ukraine are false, Russian state news agency TASS reported citing the Israeli Ministry of Defense.
Last week, an Israeli defense official said Tel Aviv was in talks to sell used Merkava tanks to two countries, including one in Europe, in what would be the first such export of the tanks.
5. U.S. Prepared To Raise Russian Oil, Arms Purchases Even While Feting Modi During State Visit – RFE/RL
WH spokesman John Kirby said there would be “deliverables” on the defense cooperation front when Indian PM Narendra Modi visits Washington later this week but declined to provide details.
Kirby acknowledged at a briefing that India would be pressed regarding its Russian oil and arms purchases during the state visit, adding that Ukraine is “without question” going to be a topic of discussion.
6. Evidence Suggests Russia Blew Up Kakhovka Dam – Infographics – tippinsights
Evidence suggests that Russia blew up a Ukrainian dam that collapsed earlier this month while under Russian control.
Citing engineers and explosive experts, the newspaper said on Friday that its investigation found evidence suggesting an explosive charge in a passageway running through the dam’s concrete base detonated, destroying the structure on June 6.
7. Biden Calls China’s Xi Jinping A ‘Dictator’ – Reuters
President Joe Biden called Xi Jinping a dictator a day after top diplomat Antony Blinken visited Beijing to stabilize bilateral relations.
Xi, who met with Blinken on Monday, has not publicly responded to Biden’s comments, but they are unlikely to go down well in Beijing. They could jeopardize efforts by both countries to bring their relationship back to a more stable footing after the balloon incident.
8. China Extends New Energy Vehicle Tax Break Through 2027 – Reuters
China announced an extension of a purchase tax break on new energy vehicles (NEVs), a new pillar of the economy whose muted recovery has seen market watchers calling for more stimulus.
The incentives put NEVs on the front burner of a broad-based push to rekindle growth in the world’s second-largest economy, which is losing momentum after a brisk start to the year.
9. Chinese Scientists Simulate Black Hole Using Quantum Computing, Test Hawking’s Theory – WION
A team of researchers led by Chinese scientists has managed to stimulate the physics of black holes using quantum computing.
They said the test was an attempt to create systems with properties ‘analogous to black holes.’ They also tested a theory devised by renowned physicist Stephen Hawking’s hypothesis on ‘Hawking radiation.’
10. EU Unveils Strategy To Prevent Sensitive Technologies Falling Into Hands Of China, Russia – UPI
The EU unveiled plans to secure both the export and overseas production of quantum computers, AI, advanced microchips, and other dual-use technologies critical to economic security.
The European Economic Security Strategy doesn’t specify any country or company by name, referring only to the Ukraine war as an example of how over-dependence on a single country for resources critical to economic security posed a significant risk.
11. North Korea Calls Blinken’s Visit To China ‘Disgraceful Begging Trip’ – Yonhap
North Korea called U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s latest visit to China a “disgraceful begging trip,” claiming it demonstrated the U.S. failure in its policy of putting pressure on Beijing.
“It is the height of the double-dealing and impudence peculiar to the U.S. to provoke first and then talk about the so-called ‘responsible control over divergence of opinion,'” Jong Yong-hak, an analyst on international affairs, said.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
