How’s Ukraine counter-offensive going? It depends

For the most consequential conflict in the first quarter of the 21st century, the world is hopelessly uninformed about the Ukraine war. Every media outlet has its own ideas about events in the theater.

No single factor in the war has been more critical than Kyiv’s supposed counter-offensive, a move designed to retake territory from Russia. Various Western governments have promoted the flow of billions of dollars in military aid, and controversial decisions, such as sending Ukraine cluster ammunition, as essential to the counter-offensive. Yet, no American knows precisely what is happening on the battlefield.

We examined 15 headlines about the counter-offensive, and the breadth of coverage illustrates the confusion the average reader is left with.

Pro-Ukraine Coverage

1. Putin Has ‘Already Lost’ Ukraine War, Says Biden – Kyivpost, July 14.
2. Russian positions abandoned in Ukraine counter-offensive – CBS News, July 14.
3. Don’t Believe Russia About Ukraine’s Counter-offensive – Business Insider, June 27.
4. Ukraine Counter-offensive Failure Reports Are ‘Nonsense.’ – Newsweek, June 23.
5. Ukraine says ‘biggest blow’ yet to come in counter-offensive – Al Jazeera, June 20.
6. Ukraine’s Counter-offensive Making Progress, Stoltenberg – Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty

Pro-Russian Coverage

1. Putin: Ukraine has failed to break through Russian defenses – Jerusalem Post, July 16.
2. Ukraine’s much-touted counter-offensive appears to be tumbling largely due to the Russian military’s excellent military tactics and cutting-edge weapons – The Eurasian Times, June 28.
3. Ukraine’s counter-offensive stalls against Russian forces – LeMonde, June 22.
4. Ukraine’s losses are vast in so far failed counter-offensive – Arabiya.net, June 13.
5. Kyiv accepts counter-offensive not advancing quickly – The Guardian, July 14.

Grudging Acceptance But Explaining It Away

1. Why Ukraine Is Struggling to Puncture Russia’s Formidable Defenses – Wall Street Journal video, July 10.
2. Why Ukraine’s Counter-offensive Is Off to a Slow, Bloody Start – New York Times, June 26.
3. Ukraine’s counter-offensive: Why progress has been slow – CNN, July 4.
4. ‘Time is ticking’ on Ukraine counter-offensive — so why doesn’t it appear to be working? – Daily Express, July 12.

TIPP Conclusion

While we are not military experts, we can conclude that the Ukrainian counter-offensive is unlikely to meet President Zelenskyy’s ambitious goals of evicting all Russians and returning Ukraine to pre-2014 borders. Here’s a partial list of factual snippets upon which we reach our conclusion.

In his interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, justifying his authorization to send cluster weapons, President Biden admitted that Ukraine was running out of 155 mm ammunition. We already know that Russia has at least a 5-1 advantage in artillery, the most critical battle element.

Battlefield maps produced by think tanks, such as the Institute for the Study of War, show that Russia continues to occupy vast tracts of Ukrainian territory.

According to Wikipedia, before 2022, Russia occupied 42,000 sq. km of Ukraine (Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk). After its full-scale invasion, Russia acquired an additional 119,000 sq. km or nearly 27% of Ukrainian territory. By November 11, ISW calculated that Ukrainian forces had liberated an area of 74,443 sq. km from the Russians, leaving Russia still with about 86,500 sq. km, 18% of Ukraine’s territory.

In the last six months, both sides have made little progress. According to the BBC, Ukraine may have reclaimed about 245 sq. km of territory since the counter-offensive was launched, about the same area Russia newly acquired – amounting to a wash.

It is easier for a warring party to defend territory than acquire new land. Russia has invested heavily in fortifying its defenses in the vast open fields of southern and eastern Ukraine that it has taken. In an excellent analysis of how the Russians have tactically deployed mines, trip wires, booby traps, and improvised explosive devices, the New York Times quoted a Ukrainian private named Serhiy, part of a unit that rescued the soldiers wounded by the explosions. “I couldn’t imagine something like this. I thought mines would be lain in lines. But whole fields are filled with them, everywhere.” The result: Ukrainian forces are bogged down only a few miles from where they started.

Western leaders have poured financial and military assistance into Ukraine and note ruefully that one commodity is in real short supply: Time. Political headwinds in their home countries – as they fight inflation and weakening economies – could handicap continued, limitless support for the war.

Tensions ran high during the recent Vilnius NATO summit when Zelenskyy’s demands for admission to the bloc immediately after the war were rejected. In the most high-profile disagreement, British defense secretary Ben Wallace warned that Ukraine must show “gratitude” to its allies. While this amounted to a major crack in Western unity, the fire was quickly put out.

Media coverage on the Russian side of the conflict is even more confusing. Big Tech companies such as YouTube and Facebook have banned Russian media outlets from publishing content. Western reporting is mainly based on hearsay and adds to inaccurate speculation, most of which ends up being wrong.

For instance, during the Wagner mutiny, Western leaders and media outlets made outlandish predictions about how the command and control of Russia’s armed forces were at risk. Media analysts openly wondered what would happen if Putin were deposed. But Putin’s position was never under any threat.

Yet no one has authoritatively explained what happened during and after the Wagner drama. Why did the fast-moving convoy towards Moscow suddenly stop? Did the mercenaries go to Belarus? What percentage? Did Wagner’s military head meet President Putin? Are the Wagner soldiers regrouping to fight offensives against Ukraine in August?

It is all a blur – the way Western leaders like it, as it makes it easier to funnel even more funds and military support to Kyiv in what appears to be a failing cause.

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1. Air Attacks On Ukraine: Russia Possibly Using Ballistic Missiles, Says Kyiv – WION

Ukrainian Air Force said Russia launched overnight air attacks on Ukraine’s south and east using drones and possibly ballistic missiles.

On the Telegram messaging app, the Air Force said that the southern port of Odesa and the Mykolaiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipropetrovsk regions were threatened by Russian drone attacks.

2. Vladimir Putin Vows “Response” After Ukraine Attack On Crimea Bridge – AFP

President Vladimir Putin vowed to retaliate after a Ukrainian attack on a bridge linking Moscow-annexed Crimea to Russia killed two civilians and left their child wounded.

“Another terrorist attack was committed on the bridge last night,” Vladimir Putin said in televised remarks. “Of course, there will be a response from Russia. The defense ministry is preparing relevant proposals,” he added.

3. Russia Suspends Black Sea Grain Deal With Ukraine – UPI

Announcing the cancellation, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov held out the prospect that the agreement could be revived.

“Unfortunately, the part of the Black Sea agreement that concerns Russia has not yet been fulfilled. As a result, it has been terminated,” Peskov said.

“As soon as the Russian part [of the deal] is fulfilled, the Russian side will immediately return to implementing this deal.”

4. Ukraine’s Zelenskky Says Russia Blackmails World With Food Access – Al Jazeera

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that no one has the right to destroy the food security of any nation, and the world has an opportunity to show Russia that it does not allow blackmail.

Describing the need to be protected from “Russian madness” following Moscow’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain deal on Monday, Zelenskyy said the export of grain from Ukraine’s seaports should continue – with or without Russia’s participation.

5. Baerbock Says Germany Has A Duty To End Russian War Crimes – D.W.

Germany must prevent future wars and crimes due to its historical responsibility for “the most severe crimes in the world,” German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock told DW.

She attended a ceremony at the United Nations, marking the 25th anniversary of the creation of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

6. U.S. Envoy Kerry Says Climate Cooperation Could Redefine U.S.-China Ties – Reuters

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry’s three-day visit to China to revive climate cooperation between the world’s top greenhouse gas emitters has coincided with waves of extreme weather across the planet.

“We hope that this can be the beginning of a new definition of cooperation and capacity to resolve differences between us,” Kerry told top diplomat Wang Yi in a meeting.

7. China Rebukes Planned August Stopover Of Taiwanese VP Lai Ching-Te – UPI

China warned the United States ahead of a planned stopover next month by Taiwanese Vice President Lai Ching-te.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that Beijing would “closely follow the situation and take strong measures to safeguard our sovereignty and territorial integrity” when asked about the trip.

Lai is a leading candidate in Taiwan’s upcoming January presidential election.

8. China Vows To Roll Out Consumption Support Policies Without Delay – Reuters

China’s top economic planner pledged to roll out policies to “restore and expand” consumption without delay as consumers’ purchasing power remained weak, suggesting an urgency to revive domestic demand.

The world’s second-largest economy grew frail in the second quarter, official data showed. Gross domestic product expanded 6.3% in the second quarter from a year earlier, well below the forecast for growth of 7.3%.

9. How China Beat Everyone To Be World Leader In Electric Vehicles – Bloomberg

In the race to reduce carbon emissions, countries from the U.S. to New Zealand are doling out incentives to spur electric-vehicle sales – tactics China used for years as it became the biggest EV market.

Beijing’s success is breathtaking. EVs accounted for a quarter of all passenger cars sold in China last year, far ahead of roughly one in seven in the U.S. and one in eight in Europe.

HSBC expects the EV penetration rate in the world’s second-largest economy to reach 90% by 2030.

10. Israel Acknowledges Moroccan Sovereignty Over Western Sahara – D.W.

The Western Sahara is a stretch of land south of Morocco, mostly bordering Mauritania, with a small part sharing the Algerian border.

The Algerian-backed Polisario Front also claims the disputed region. Morocco established diplomatic ties with Israel in late 2020 with several other Arab countries.

A statement from the Israeli prime minister’s office said the country was considering opening a consulate in Western Sahara’s Dakhla.

11. Rich-Poor Divide Could Wedge Apart Global Economy Fully: World Bank Chief – AFP

Ajay Banga, the new head of the World Bank, said he feared a lack of progress was in danger of splitting the global economy to the detriment of the world’s poorest. He was speaking at a meeting of G20 finance ministers in India.

The World Bank said it is working to increase its financial capability to spur growth and jobs but said the future economy could not rely on expansion at the cost of the environment.

12. Commonwealth Games: 2026 Event In Doubt After Victoria Cancels – BBC

The 2026 Commonwealth Games are in doubt after the Australian state of Victoria canceled its plans to host due to budget blowouts.

The Commonwealth Games Federation (CGF) struggled to find a host before Victoria volunteered in April 2022.

But the premier said the projected cost had now tripled and became “well and truly too much” for the state to bear.

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights