If being repeatedly indicted for alleged felonies is fatal to one’s political career, you couldn’t tell by former President Donald Trump. He’s still riding a wave of popularity within his party, and continues to maintain a comfortable lead over potential rivals for the Republican Party nomination in 2024, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
In recent months, I&I/TIPP has polled members of both major political parties and independents on their nominee preferences. What is surprising is not only has Trump held on to his lead among likely Republican voters, he has expanded it.
Our latest national online poll, taken from Aug. 2-4 before the latest GA indictment on Monday, included a total 1,253 registered voters. Among those polled were 529 Republicans or independents who lean Republican. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentages points.
Among that group, 57% said they would support Trump for president. That compares to 53% in July and 55% in June. So, if anything, Trump’s party support is strengthening, not weakening.
Moreover, Trump’s main rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, appears to be losing steam. Some 12% of GOP voters in August said they would vote for DeSantis, down from 14% in July and 19% in June.
Only one potential rival seems to be rising in the polls: Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, who garners 8% support in August, up from 7% in July and just 2% in June, when he was a new face. He now stands in third place, just behind DeSantis.
Following the three leaders are former Vice President Mike Pence at 5%, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley at 4%, and current South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 2%. After that comes a long line of candidates at 1% or less, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, radio host and commentator Larry Elder, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchison.
Among all GOP respondents, 1% answered “someone else,” while 9% responded “not sure.”
How could Trump hold on and even enlarge his lead under a personally damaging, virtually continual legal onslaught?
American voters seem to be highly skeptical of the charges, to say the least. In our own July I&I/TIPP Poll, 39% of all voters described the charges against Trump as either “exaggerated” or “harassment.”
Even openly Trump-hostile news outlet CNN noted that the charges made against Trump appeared to be “personal” for President Joe Biden, who has accused Trump of “sedition,” a charge so serious that it can potentially carry the death penalty.
Moreover, Biden himself seems to have his hands full when it comes to legal matters and ethics.
A congressional investigation found evidence of at least $20 million from companies and officials tied to foreign governments — including China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Romania — ending up in bank accounts of Biden family members and business associates during the time Joe Biden was vice president.
Meanwhile, as public outrage has grown, Attorney General Merrick Garland named U.S. Attorney David Weiss as Special Counsel to look into allegations of misconduct by Biden’s son, Hunter, that potentially could lead to Joe Biden himself.
The DailyMail.Com/TIPP Poll found that two-thirds of Americans believe that Biden broke “foreign agent” rules by aiding son Hunter’s business deals. And a recent Gallup Poll found only 42% of U.S. adults view the ethical standards of Biden officials as “excellent” or “good,” while 55% saw them as “not good” or “poor.”
If that’s true, it’s clearly an impeachable offense. Which could go a long way for President Biden’s struggling in the polls, even within his own party.
The second part of the I&I/TIPP Poll asked 615 Democratic voters or independent voters who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, who they would support in the upcoming primaries. Unlike Trump, who has a solid majority, Biden is lagging.
Despite making the supposed successes of “Bidenomics” an emphasis in recent weeks, the needle hasn’t moved much for Biden. In August, he received 37% support among Democrats, virtually identical to his support in July (36%) and June (37%).
The good news for Biden and his supporters is that no one is emerging from the Democratic pack to challenge him. He maintains a solid but not indelible 27-point lead on his nearest challenger, former First Lady Michelle Obama, who stands at 10% support, virtually the same as in July (9%) and June (10%).
After Obama come Vice President Kamala Harris and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, both at 6%, followed by environmental lawyer and author Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. (5%), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, all at 3%.
Trailing at 2% are Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. No one else gets more than 1%. Those answering “someone else” also totaled 2%, while “not sure” was the second-largest response at 12%, greater than any of the candidates other than Biden.
So uncertainty reigns. In such a political environment, could a third-party candidate make some noise or even win? We discussed that possibility in a poll story last month.
This month we asked Americans: “How would you describe your feelings about voting for a third party?”
Overall, among four possible responses, “I would consider voting for a Third Party” won 30% support, while “I’m deeply dissatisfied with the established parties, and will only vote for a third party” garnered just 3%.
“I would never vote for a third party” got 20%, while “I will vote for a specific candidate, not a party” received the biggest support at 31%. “Not sure” took in 17% of those answering.
So, in short, about 32% of those responding would consider voting for a third-party candidate, enough to do serious damage to a leading candidate.
But with the political breakdown, things get a bit more interesting. Among Democrats, 32% say they might vote for a third-party candidate, while for independents, the support is not surprisingly higher at 41%. Among Republicans, support is 27%.
Recall that fiscal conservative billionaire H. Ross Perot ran a third-party campaign for president in 1992 and took 19% of the vote. While not enough to win, Perot did serious damage to President George H.W. Bush, who lost to Clinton 43% to 37.4% on Election Day.
With nearly a third of all major political affiliations saying they might support a third-party candidate, candidates with a tenuous lead over the pursuing pack should take heed. That’s especially true of Joe Biden, whose support even within his own party remains weak.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. U.S. Approves Sending F-16 Jets To Ukraine From Denmark And Netherlands – WION
The U.S. will accelerate clearance of F-16 transfer requests for the war-torn nation after the pilots are trained, Secretary of State Antony Blinken assured his Danish and Dutch counterparts.
Denmark and the Netherlands had recently asked for those assurances.
Last month, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Moscow would regard Western F-16 fighter jets sent to Ukraine as a “nuclear” threat because of their capacity to carry atomic weapons.
2. Ukraine Says Will Not Be Able To Operate U.S.-Built F-16 Fighter Jets This Year – Reuters
“It’s already obvious we won’t be able to defend Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets during this autumn and winter,” air force spokesperson Yuriy Ihnat told Ukrainian television.
President Joe Biden endorsed training programs for Ukrainian pilots on F-16s in May, but no timing for the supply of warplanes has been given so far.
3. Turkey ‘Warned’ Russia After Black Sea Ship Attack: Ankara – AFP
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s office said that Turkey warned Moscow to avoid further escalations after a Turkish-owned cargo vessel was attacked by the Russian navy last weekend.
The Sukru Okan vessel was flying the flag of Palau when it was fired on by the Russian navy last Sunday.
Palau is a Pacific archipelago whose flag is often used by shipping companies to freely access international ports.
4. Putin Not Pushing Belarus To Join Ukraine War, Lukashenko Says – Al Jazeera
In an online interview, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said that he believed Putin had already achieved his goals in Ukraine and that Kyiv and Moscow should sit down to negotiate.
“We need to sit down at the negotiating table and discuss everything. And Crimea, and Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. Everything there needs to be discussed,” he said.
Lukashenko warned he would use “everything we have” if faced with aggression from nearby NATO members.
5. Evergrande: China Property Giant Files For U.S. Bankruptcy Protection – BBC
Property giant Evergrande has filed for bankruptcy protection in the U.S., allowing the heavily-indebted company to protect its assets in the U.S. as it works on a multi-billion dollar deal with creditors.
Evergrande defaulted on its huge debts in 2021, which sent shockwaves through global financial markets. The move comes as problems in China’s property market add to concerns about the world’s second-largest economy.
6. China’s Xi Jinping To Attend BRICS Summit In South Africa During State Visit – AFP
Chinese leader Xi Jinping will pay a state visit to South Africa next week, the foreign ministry said, while confirming the president will attend the BRICS summit in Johannesburg.
Africa has emerged as a renewed diplomatic battleground, with the West, Russia, and China vying for influence amid heightened competition for minerals and international divisions fostered by the war in Ukraine.
7. China Directs Its State Banks To Intensify Yuan Intervention – WION
High-ranking Chinese authorities are considering the possibility of reducing foreign exchange reserve requirements for banks to mitigate currency depreciation.
This move follows the yuan’s decline to approximately 7.35 per dollar. Despite Beijing’s attempts to boost market sentiment, the onshore yuan is edging closer to its lowest point since 2007.
8. U.S. Nuclear Boss Says China’s Arms Program Not Slowing Down – Nikkei Asia
U.S. Strategic Command, the department responsible for America’s nuclear weapons program, monitors China’s nuclear development “day in and day out,” its chief said.
They observe from the command’s headquarters at Offutt Air Force Base, Nebraska, Beijing’s determination to establish a full-fledged nuclear triad of land-, sea- and air-based delivery platforms.
Beijing’s land, air, and sea capabilities are ‘bona fide’: Gen. Anthony Cotton, head of the U.S. Strategic Command, said.
9. Biden Trying To Meet North Korean Leader Without Preconditions: Official – Kyodo News
“They have not responded positively to that offer, but it’s still on the table. We are willing to sit down and negotiate without preconditions,” WH national security spokesman John Kirby said.
The offer of a top-level meeting, disclosed by Kirby without specifying when the offer was made, suggests the Biden administration is stepping up efforts to reach out to North Korea.
10. UN Says N Korea Expanding Military Programmes While People Suffer – Al Jazeera
Abuses including forced labor and child labor, “stem directly from, or support, the increasing militarization” of North Korea, UN human rights chief told the UN Security Council.
The Security Council session, requested by the United States, Albania, and Japan, was the first in the Security Council on the issue for six years.
12. Most Of West Africa Ready To Join Standby Force In Niger: ECOWAS – Al Jazeera
All member states except those under military rule and Cape Verde are ready to participate in the standby force, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) commissioner said.
The meeting of defense chiefs from the 15-member regional bloc is part of the latest efforts to overturn the removal of Mohamed Bazoum, Niger’s president, who was deposed in a July 26 coup.
13. India Aims To Allocate $12 Billion To Address Inflationary Pressures: Report – WION
Indian officials are contemplating reallocating as much as $12 billion (1 trillion rupees) from ministry budgets to curb food and fuel prices without compromising the government deficit objective.
These steps come as a response to the persistent challenge of inflation, which hit a 15-month high last month.
14. Saudi Aramco Ranked World’s Most Profitable Company Over Last 12 Months – Al Arabiya
Saudi Aramco has once again been ranked as the most profitable company in the world despite a 38 percent year-on-year decline during the second quarter of this year, according to Forbes.
Based on financial data from the last 12 months, as of May 5, 2023, the Saudi oil company had a profit of $156.36 billion. Second-placed Apple had a profit of $94.32 billion.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
