Fox News is building a frenzy with non-stop promotions of Wednesday’s first GOP 2024 presidential debate in Milwaukee. But unlike the 2015 GOP primary debate season that propelled Donald Trump to the presidency, the Milwaukee event will likely be a dud.
Eight candidates will be on stage: Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, former Trump VP Mike Pence, former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, former Gov. Asa Hutchinson of Arkansas, South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, former two-term South Carolina governor and former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, and Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota.
Debates are exciting events because they often mark a candidate’s political rise or demise. It is anyone’s bet who may falter on Wednesday, but Chris Christie and Ron DeSantis are the most at risk.
In 2011, Rick Perry arrived late to the nominating season with high expectations from his term as a successful Texas governor. But at a debate in Rochester, Michigan, he could not remember the third agency he would get rid of if he won the presidency. “It’s three agencies of government when I get there that are gone – Commerce, Education and the um, what’s the third one there? Let’s see. Oh five – Commerce, Education and the um, um,” Perry said.
Mitt Romney prompted him with the name of the EPA. “There you go,” Perry said but quickly retracted. “The third agency of government I would do away with – the education, the uh, the commerce, and let’s see. I can’t do the third one. I can’t. Sorry Oops!” Fifteen minutes later, Perry, in response to another question, tried to make amends. “By the way, it was the Department of Energy I was talking about.”
It was too late. Perry never recovered from the lapse. Ironically, Trump appointed Perry to head the Department of Energy, where he was extraordinarily successful. Under Perry’s watch, the United States became a net energy exporter in 2018, the first time in over 75 years.
Much of the Wednesday evening will be about who will not be on stage: former President Donald Trump, who enjoys a formidable 40-point lead over his rivals. Fox has made it clear that Trump will get his due air time by playing his video and audio clips and inviting his opponents to comment.
Given his miserable standing in the polls (at only 3.4% in the RCP average for Iowa), Chris Christie has the most to gain from the debate; but he will likely lose the most if he is not careful. An experienced public speaker who brought down Marco Rubio in a 2016 New Hampshire debate, Christie has the experience appearing on national TV for over two years as a guest on ABC’s Sunday morning news show, This Week. A close confidant of Trump’s and a member of Trump’s transition team in 2016, Christie has taken the Liz Cheney route, becoming a strong Trump critic and antagonist. Desperate to seek clicks and pre-debate media attention, Christie tweeted yesterday that Trump was riding out the debate because he was a “coward.” GOP voters may disagree about Trump’s qualities, but one characteristic that universally defines Trump is that he is anything but a coward. Most other politicians would have wilted facing 700 years in prison and over 91 legal charges.
Christie’s Trump problem afflicts Mike Pence even more. We cataloged Pence’s difficult position – of being a Trump loyalist and attaining international stature as the second-most powerful elected officer in the United States, only to turn on him during the last few weeks of Trump’s presidency – in our editorial two weeks ago. Pence’s task is to project a sense of purity, righteousness, and principled-nature goodness that forced him to abandon his boss, without being boring. But with nearly 70% of GOP voters in a CNN poll convinced that the 2020 election was illegitimate, Pence will have difficulty pitching this position. Besides, Pence can’t meaningfully claim to have led Trump’s policy priorities – and if he exaggerates his role, he will be doing so at his peril. Trump will be watching with his phone, ready to post on Truth Social.
One should expect everyone to go after rising star Vivek Ramaswamy whom we profiled on these pages in May. He has taken our advice regarding Ukraine, being more forceful in criticizing Washington’s thinking about needlessly funding a hopeless war. He has cleverly usurped Columbia Prof. Jeffrey Sachs’ view that Washington’s support for Ukraine is driving Russia and China to team up, significantly endangering United States interests. Russia has the world’s largest nuclear arsenal and some of the world’s most advanced weapons systems; China has the world’s largest standing defense forces and is angling for a fight about Taiwan.
It is a brilliant tactic to counter Beltway Neocons in both parties and Christie, Pence, and Haley, who argue that America’s support for Ukraine is required for American national security reasons. But for Ramaswamy’s sake, we recommend that he credit Prof. Sachs or he could face charges of plagiarism as Biden did in 1987 during his first presidential run. [Biden’s speech was found to be remarkably similar to one given by British Leader of the Opposition and Labour Party Leader Neil Kinnock.]
No matter what happens during the debate and in the spin room afterward, the world will be fixated on Trump, who will appear at a Fulton County jail to be arrested on the 24th, just hours after the curtains close in Milwaukee. GOP debates come and go, but a former President of the United States is not often detained and released on bail.
For Trump, all the cameras will be on him, which is the way he likes it. It is why the GOP debate on Wednesday won’t matter very much to most Republicans.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. U.S. Intelligence Says Ukraine’s Offensive A Failure – Asia Times
The U.S. intelligence community says Ukraine’s offensive has failed by not reaching its stated objective, to take the city of Melitopol.
Using Western equipment, the objective was to break through Russian defenses and race to Melitopol. While the Ukrainians made some temporary gains, these attacks have been extremely costly in men and material.
2. Ukraine War Not A Stalemate, Says U.S. National Security Advisor – AFP
National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that the war in Ukraine has not bogged down into a stalemate amid increasing concerns about the slow territorial gains of Kyiv’s counteroffensive.
He described Ukraine’s counteroffensive as methodical and adapting to challenges and said Kyiv’s generals also need to fight “sustainably” to pressure Russian forces over the longer run.
3. Russia’s General Surovikin Dismissed As Head Of Aerospace Forces: Reports – Al Jazeera
Russian General Sergei Surovikin, who at one time was commander of Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, has been dismissed as head of the country’s aerospace forces.
Surovikin has not been seen publicly since the short-lived mutiny in June by the Wagner mercenary group and its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, against Russia’s defense establishment. Surovikin was considered one of Prigozhin’s most important allies in the regular Russian army.
4. Erdogan To Visit Russia To Meet Putin In September: Reports – Middle East Eye
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan plans to visit Russia to meet his counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the Black Sea grain deal, which Moscow withdrew from.
Earlier this month, Erdogan told journalists he expects to host Putin in Turkey. Putin’s security concerns during a visit to a NATO ally might have played a role in avoiding Turkey.
5. At BRICS Summit, Xi Jinping Says China’s Economy Is Resilient – Reuters
Xi, who is in South Africa for a summit of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS), made the remarks in a statement read by Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao at a business forum.
“The Chinese economy has strong resilience, tremendous potential, and great vitality,” Xi said through Wang. Xi said his country enjoyed economic advantages, including a “super-sized market,” a full-fledged industrial system, and an abundant high-caliber labor force.
6. U.S. Commerce Secretary To Visit Beijing Next Week – RFA
Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo’s trip comes as the Biden administration rolls out a framework to ban certain U.S. investments in China.
“While in [China], Secretary Raimondo looks forward to constructive discussions on issues relating to the U.S.-China commercial relationship, challenges faced by U.S. businesses, and areas for potential cooperation,” according to a Commerce Department statement.
7. U.S. Hits Chinese Officials With Entry Bans Over Forced Assimilation Of Tibetan Children – UPI
Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced the imposition of visa resections against an undisclosed number of Chinese officials in a brief statement.
In February, a panel of United Nations experts in minority issues, education, and cultural rights produced a report stating some 1 million Tibetan minority children were forcibly separated from their parents and put into a residential school system to assimilate them culturally, religiously, and linguistically into Chinese society.
8. ‘Hegemonism Not In China’s DNA’: Xi Calls For BRICS Expansion – Al Jazeera
In a speech delivered on his behalf at the start of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, South Africa, Xi said China had no wish to engage in great power competition or create “bloc confrontation.”
Xi said BRICS would continue to grow “whatever resistance there may be.” It was not clear why Xi did not participate in the event.
9. Peace Between Saudi Arabia And Israel Would Be A ‘Big Deal’: U.S. Official – Al Arabiya
A flurry of diplomatic efforts has been underway as Washington seeks to broker a normalization deal between the two countries in the Middle East.
Despite U.S. attempts, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said there was a lot of work to be done. In return for any deal, Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed its demand for an independent Palestinian state and other Israeli concessions to the Palestinians.
10. South Korea Says It Is Monitoring Full-Fledged Border Reopening By N. Korea – Yonhap
South Korea’s unification ministry said it is monitoring when North Korea will reopen its border with China in a full-fledged manner, as it has partially opened it following a yearslong closure over COVID-19.
After more than three years of stringent COVID-19 restrictions, North Korea recently permitted its athletes to cross the border to participate in a taekwondo tournament in Kazakhstan and resumed commercial flights with China.
11. India’s Moon Lander Vikram Aims For Historic Lunar South Pole Landing – BBC
If Chandrayaan-3 is successful, India will be only the fourth country to have achieved a soft landing on the Moon. India’s attempt comes just days after Russia’s Luna-25 crashed while trying to touch down in the same region.
The south pole of the Moon holds special promise in the search for water ice. The surface area that remains in permanent shadow there is huge, and scientists say it means there is a possibility of water in these areas.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
