As Congress considers President Biden’s emergency funding request to send $24 billion in additional aid to Ukraine, Americans are generally supportive. To two questions regarding direct support – one military and another financial – Americans, by a slim margin, want to continue funding the war-torn country, revealed a TIPP Poll conducted last week.
We asked 1,351 respondents this question: “Do you approve or disapprove of continued military support for the Ukraine war?”
Only 27% answered “Approve strongly.” But taken with those who said they ‘approve somewhat,’ we recorded that nearly 56% of Americans are not opposed to providing continuing military support. This reading of voter sentiment should provide some cover for our legislators when they take up the Ukraine funding bill.
The response was similar, although slightly less supportive, to a similar question on financial aid: “Given the current U.S. economic condition, do you approve or disapprove of continued financial support to Ukraine?”
One-half of voters want to provide funding for Ukraine, evidently moved by grizzly images of thousands of dead and wounded soldiers bravely putting up a fight and attempting to retake territory. But it is telling that 41% do not want to support Ukraine, given how hard it has been for American families to make ends meet back at home, thanks to Bidenflation of nearly 16%. Consistent charges by conservative Republicans, including Vivek Ramaswamy, who attacked former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie as someone more interested in Ukraine’s welfare than those on the south side of Chicago, are having an effect.
The good news for warmonger policymakers ends as voters show substantial concern about the future. Nearly 61% are concerned that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to the use of nuclear weapons.
About the same number, 60%, are concerned that the U.S. and Russia will fight a war over Ukraine. Notice that the concern is shared by 61% of Democrats, 63% of Republicans, and 59% of independents.
Meanwhile, in a telling rebuke to Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy, who voiced hope that America will continue lending a helping hand to Ukraine as Washington does to Israel (the so-called Israel model), voters don’t want America to support Ukraine forever.
We asked: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement? With a national debt of $33 trillion, the U.S. can’t afford to engage in a long-term commitment to Ukraine, which includes military aid, defense and intelligence cooperation, as well as rebuilding efforts.” 65% of respondents agreed, with only 25% disagreeing.
We conclude that most Americans did not want to see a war in Ukraine, but once it started, they were persuaded by Western officials and the media that Russia’s atrocious actions merited a strong response in both military and financial aid to Kyiv. The support is waning but is still strong enough for politicians to pass one or two more aid bills. Once more stories break out about how America had a significant hand in helping trigger Russia’s actions or deliberately missed opportunities to seek peace, the support will likely drop further.
But, Americans are significantly concerned about the West’s leadership in the conduct of the war. Despite hundreds of billions in committed funds, Ukraine’s famed counteroffensive is barely progressing. Winter is approaching in about four weeks, when battlefield progress will likely stop. If Ukraine is forced to give up territory in return for a cease-fire agreement, what did the last 19 months achieve anyway? Would this mean President Putin will be strengthened to hold out for more concessions from Ukraine? Should the West have pursued peace talks earlier?
Worse, Americans are terrified that as both sides dig in, tensions could substantially escalate to either bring America directly into combat with Russia or that Russia, exasperated by constant Western support to Ukraine, will deploy tactical nuclear weapons. With Ukraine’s future in significant limbo – no one knows if it will be granted NATO membership or when – Americans resoundingly reject the idea that America should set aside a line item in its foreign aid budget to provide security guarantees forever.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Putin Says Russia “Will Consider Reviving Ukraine Grain Deal If…” – AFP
President Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to revive the Black Sea grain export deal “as soon” as restrictions on its exports were lifted.
“We will be ready to consider the possibility of reviving the grain deal… and we will do it as soon as all the agreements on lifting restrictions on Russian agricultural exports are fully implemented,” Putin said at a press conference with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
2. New Brigade Bears Heavy Brunt Of Russia’s Onslaught In Kharkiv Oblast – Kyiv Independent
Soldiers of the newly-formed 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade were tasked with defending against a Russian offensive in Kharkiv Oblast in July and August.
While it’s doing its duty defending Russia’s push in Kharkiv Oblast, lack of experience and the limits of training and equipment made for a harrowing first two months in the field.
3. The U.S. Is Growing Increasingly Frustrated With Ukraine’s Tactics – Business Insider
Half a dozen U.S. officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told The New York Times and other outlets that they are starting to question some of Ukraine’s military tactics, including where on the frontline they are placing their combat units.
The officials said Ukrainian commanders are dividing their forces equally between the east and the south when they should consolidate them more in the south.
4. Cuba Uncovers Network Trafficking Cubans To Fight For Russia In Ukraine – Al Jazeera
Cuba has uncovered a human trafficking ring that has coerced Cuban citizens to fight for Russia in the war in Ukraine. Cuban authorities were working to “neutralize and dismantle” the network.
The statement from Cuba’s foreign ministry gave few details but noted the trafficking ring was operating both in the Caribbean island nation and within Russia.
5. Russia Proposed Three-Way Naval Exercise With N. Korea, China: NIS – Yonhap
Russia proposed conducting three-way naval exercises with North Korea and China when Moscow’s defense minister held a meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in late July, South Korea’s intelligence agency was quoted as saying.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed when he visited the North from July 25-27.
6. Pope Francis Accepts His Russia Comments Were ‘Badly Phrased,’ ‘Faulty’ – WION
Pope Francis accepted that his recent comments on Russia, which were perceived as praise for imperialism by Ukraine, were severely phrased.
In a video conference on August 25, Pope Francis talked about tsars Peter I and Catherine II, who had expanded Russian territory, and told the young Russian Catholics that they were the heirs of the “great Russian empire.”
The pope stated that he intended to remind Russia’s cultural heritage and not political one to its young citizens.
7. China Tries To Defuse Local Debt Risk With $200bn Refinancing Tool – Nikkei Asia
China plans to let some local governments tap a new bond issuance scheme to help them roll over debts held by struggling infrastructure developers.
The move represents China’s latest effort to defuse the risks associated with local governments’ off-balance-sheet debt. Much of this hidden debt stems from so-called local government financing vehicles (LGFVs) set up to pay for roads and other projects.
8. China’s Country Garden Narrowly Avoids Default: Bloomberg – AFP
Reports said that struggling Chinese developer Country Garden has made multi-million-dollar interest payments on two outstanding loans, narrowly avoiding what would have been its first default.
One of China’s biggest builders, Country Garden, had racked up debts estimated at 1.43 trillion yuan ($196 billion) by the end of 2022 and last week reported a 48.9 billion yuan loss for the first six months of the year.
9. British Sharply Divided Over Support For Monarchy, Poll Says – UPI
Only 30% of those between 18 and 24 years old – often called Gen Z – believe the monarchy is “good for Britain.”
That is a 50% drop in a decade and starkly contrasts with a 77% monarchy approval rating for those over 65. Queen Elizabeth, the longest-serving monarch in British history, died one year ago this Friday at 96.
10. North Korean Leader Kim May Visit Russia For Talks With Putin On Arms Deal: Report – Yonhap
The North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may travel to Vladivostok next week to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a possible arms deal, The New York Times reported.
When asked, the White House National Security Council (NSC) declined to confirm the report but said Kim may be expecting high-level dialogue in Russia.
11. Iran Slows Uranium Enrichment – IAEA – A.P.
The confidential report comes as Iran and the United States are negotiating a prisoner swap and the release of billions of dollars in Iranian assets frozen in South Korea.
Slowing its enrichment of uranium could serve as another sign that Tehran seeks to lower tensions between it and America after years of tensions since the collapse of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.
12. Saudi Arabia’s MBS Announces Establishment Of Global Water Organization – Al Arabiya
Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has established a Global Water Organization.
The newly formed organization will have its headquarters in Riyadh and is set to play a pivotal role in consolidating and enhancing global efforts to secure sustainable water resources, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.
The initiative underscores Saudi Arabia’s commitment to addressing the challenges associated with global water supply, SPA noted.
13. Israeli Embassy Opens In Bahrain, A Milestone In Diplomatic Relations – Al Arabiya
Israel officially opened its embassy in Bahrain three years after both sides normalized ties and as Washington pressed Riyadh for a similar deal that would be Israel’s biggest diplomatic win in the region.
The normalization deal between Bahrain and Israel was part of a series of agreements known as the Abraham Accords, also signed with the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, and Sudan.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
