- President Xi Jinping’s absence from the upcoming G20 summit in India indicates potential turmoil in Chinese domestic politics
- A group of retired party elders attacked Xi Jinping’s leadership at this year’s Beidaihe meeting, worried about political, economic, and social instability in China that could undermine the party’s public support and authority
- Xi Jinping expressed frustration to his close aides and assigned them the task of resolving the issues left unresolved by his three predecessors
- Xi’s decision to skip the G20 summit is likely influenced by concerns about China’s economy, deteriorating relations with the outside world, and the absence of breakthroughs in U.S.-China relations
The eighteenth G20 Summit is set to begin in a couple of days in New Delhi, India. As leaders of the top 20 economies gather on one platform, two notable figures will be missing.
The Russian President, Vladimir Putin, facing backlash mainly from the West and with an arrest warrant to his name for the invasion of Ukraine, has unsurprisingly opted to skip the summit. However, news that the Chinese President, Xi Jinping, will not attend has raised many eyebrows.
Speculation is rife about why President Xi has opted not to travel to New Delhi. The Indian foreign ministry quickly pointed out that the leaders have sometimes missed attending the summit for various reasons and that this instance had “nothing to do with India.” The official statement is downplaying the “snub” and effectively mitigating border clashes between the two nations and the recent map row as reasons for the no-show.
Beijing’s increasingly touchy relations with Washington and many other countries may be another reason for President Xi’s absence. China’s close relations with Russia and its refusal to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its trade dispute with Australia, and security threats to Japan, to name a few, could make for very awkward interactions.
But, besides “avoidance” and “snubs,” could there be a more momentous reason for the sudden change of President Xi’s plans?
According to a report by Nikkei Asia, the authoritarian ruler who has steadily strengthened his grip over the ruling Communist Party of China (CCP) was recently “reprimanded…in ways they had not until now” by his party elders at the Beidaihe meeting.
Held in early August, the annual Beidaihe meeting, or “summer summit,” brings together current leaders and elders from earlier generations in an informal setting for closed-door discussions to arrive at a policy consensus that will set the tone for major domestic issues. As with much of CCP’s affairs, there are no official statements or press releases about or after the meeting. But, details of the latest round are slowly emerging.
President Xi was in for a surprise despite purging the party of veteran, popular leaders and surrounding himself with his supporters. It is believed that the dismal state of the economy, the alarming unemployment rates, the sacking of senior ministers and generals, and other serious issues have prompted the elders to deliver a stern message to the President.
The elders are said to have warned that the country could not afford to “have more turmoil,” and on the current course, “the party could lose public support, posing a threat to its rule.”
A frustrated President, reeling from the unexpectedly harsh criticism, is said to have vented to his close aides:
All the issues that were left by the previous three leaders are on my shoulders. I’ve spent the last decade tackling them, but they remain unresolved. Am I to blame?
Many of President Xi’s policies have few fans within or outside China’s borders. His draconian Zero Covid policy led to public street protests – an unusual occurrence in the single-party state. Faced with a shrinking economy, joblessness, and a bust real estate bubble, many Chinese youth are dejected and unwilling to strive to change the tide of their future.
On the international front, trade with America, its biggest customer, has been severely affected. Government interference has prompted many multinationals to shut down operations in China. President Xi’s belligerent claims on the South China Sea and insistence on “re-uniting” Taiwan have led to uneasy relations with many neighbors. China’s close links with authoritarian regimes like Russia and Iran have distanced itself from the rest of the world.
With few friends to name and an ambitious agenda at the forefront of his third term, President Xi must maintain his party’s support. The reprimand may have been unexpected; what remains to be seen is whether the Chinese President will do what is expected of him – steer China toward a more peaceful and prosperous course.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. NATO Has No Indication Of Intentional Russian Attack On Romania – Reuters
NATO does not have any indication that drone debris found on Romanian territory was caused by a deliberate Russian attack on Romania, its chief said on Thursday.
On Monday, Ukraine said that drones detonated in Romania during an overnight Russian air strike on a Ukrainian port across the Danube River. Attacks have increased on the site since July, when Moscow abandoned a deal that lifted a de facto Russian blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports.
2. Russia Blasts ‘Inhumanity’ Of U.S. Sending Depleted Uranium Shells To Ukraine – Al Jazeera
The Pentagon said that depleted uranium ammunition for U.S.-made Abrams tanks would be part of a new military package worth up to $175m.
This would be out of more than $1bn in civilian and defense support that Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced in the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv.
“The administration’s decision to supply weapons with depleted uranium is an indicator of inhumanity,” Russia’s embassy in Washington said on the Telegram messaging app.
3. Russia: Turkey To Handle 1 Million Tonnes Of Grain For Africa -WION
Russia announced that Turkey had made a preliminary agreement to handle the one million metric tonnes of grain that Russia intends to ship at a reduced cost to Africa with assistance from Qatar.
After pulling out of the Black Sea grain deal, Moscow put forth the plan.
Russia has offered free or heavily discounted grain to African nations, some of which have been experiencing food shortages.
4. Saudi Crown Prince, Russia’s Putin Agree On Efforts For Energy Markets’ Stability – Al Arabiya
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke on the phone and agreed to continue their efforts towards the stability of energy markets.
The global leaders in oil production, Saudi Arabia and Russia, announced the extension of voluntary oil supply cuts to the end of the year despite a rally in the oil market and analyst expectations of tight supply in the fourth quarter.
5. China’s Belt And Road At Crossroads As More Loans Turn Sour – Nikkei Asia
A decade since China first proposed the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s aggressive investments worldwide have helped expand both trade and its international influence.
Yet the infrastructure-focused initiative is losing steam amid a domestic economic slowdown and a surge in defaults triggered by factors including COVID-19. The country now appears to be rethinking how it invests overseas, with President Xi Jinping pushing to boost the profitability of Belt and Road projects.
6. China Wants To Ban Clothes That ‘Hurt Nation’s Feelings’ – BBC
A draft law banning speech and dressing “detrimental to the spirit of Chinese people” has sparked debate in China.
If the law comes into force, people found guilty could be fined or jailed, but the proposal does not yet spell out what constitutes a violation. Social media users and legal experts have called for clarity to avoid excessive enforcement.
7. Australian PM To Visit China This Year After ‘Progress’ On Ties – Reuters
“I look forward to visiting China later this year to mark the 50th anniversary of Prime Minister Whitlam’s historic visit,” Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.
He referred to the first visit to communist China by an Australian leader, then-Prime Minister Gough Whitlam, in 1973.
Tension has eased since Australia elected a Labor government in 2022, and China recently lifted tariffs on Australian barley exports. However, Australia wants to lift curbs on other exports, including wine and lobster.
8. Solomon Islands Bans Visits By Foreign Diplomats Vying For Influence – Reuters
In a letter addressed to “all development partners,” without naming them, the Pacific nation said the two-month visit ban would start on September 15, during “a crucial time for government.”
After signing a security pact with China last year, the Solomon Islands has seen an uptick in visits by senior diplomats from Australia, the United States, Britain, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and China.
9. Japan’s Kishida Urges China Premier To End Import Ban Over Fukushima Water – Kyodo News
Amid growing tensions, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Chinese Premier Li Qiang held a brief conversation in Jakarta, where they attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meetings.
According to the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Kishida told Li that Japan and China need to build “constructive and stable” relations while explaining Japan’s position on the water release that began late last month.
10. Israel: Former Mossad Chief Says His Country Is Enforcing Apartheid In The West Bank – Middle East Eye
In an interview, Tamir Pardo, who was in charge of Mossad from 2011 to 2016, said the treatment of Palestinians is similar to the racial separation implemented in South Africa in a system that ended in the early 1990s.
In April 2021, Human Rights Watch found that Israeli authorities were committing crimes against humanity, apartheid, and persecution based on government policies that maintained the domination of Jewish Israelis over Palestinians.
11. North Korean Leader May Choose Unexpected Route For Upcoming Meeting With Putin: NIS – Yonhap
“There is a possibility of Kim Jong-un making a surprise move by choosing a different route than what is expected,” an official from South Korea’s spy agency reported during a parliamentary intelligence committee meeting.
The New York Times had reported earlier that Kim plans to travel to Russia’s Vladivostok, possibly by armored train, for talks with Putin.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
