With the world’s attention still riveted by Hamas’ terrorist attacks against Israel, the death and destruction of the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its 21st month, goes on. During the conflict, President Joe Biden has put the U.S. forward as a potential peace broker. Do average Americans believe his plan is working?
To find the answer, the October I&I/TIPP Poll asked voters: “How satisfied are you with the Biden administration’s efforts to find a settlement to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?”
The response, after more than $113 billion in U.S. military and humanitarian aid, is not much. Among those responding to the I&I/TIPP Poll, conducted from Sept. 27-29 among 1,378 adults, just 34% said they were either “very satisfied” (11%) or “somewhat satisfied” (23%).
More than half of respondents — 53% — described themselves as either “not very satisfied” (22%) or “not at all satisfied” (31%). Another 12% said they were “not sure.” The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points.
As is usually the case in these days of highly partisan politics, the major parties and independents show sharp differences over Biden’s efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Democrats (61% “satisfied,” 27% “not satisfied”) strongly support Biden, while Republicans (12% “satisfied,” 83% “not satisfied) overwhelmingly reject Biden’s efforts so far.
Independents again represented a kind of middle ground between the two parties, with 29% “satisfied,” but 53% calling themselves “not satisfied.”
Indeed, among all possible responses, “not at all satisfied” was No. 1 at 31%.
Biden’s support among voters appears to be very thin. Just two groups showed a majority or plurality backing his Russia-Ukraine efforts: Blacks, at 47% “satisfied” and 38% “unsatisfied,” along with self-described liberals, at 62% “satisfied” vs. 24% “unsatisfied.” All other groups had more “dissatisfied” responses than “satisfied” ones.
Hispanics, in general, are a bit more “satisfied” at 38% than the overall average of 34%, but are still mostly “not satisfied” at 42%.
There are regional differences, as well. In the blue states of the West (37% “satisfied,” 51% “not satisfied”) and Northeast (41% “satisfied,” 48% “not satisfied”), voters on the whole consider Biden’s policies as positive. In the Midwest (29% “satisfied,” 57% “not satisfied”) and South (32% “satisfied,” 57% “not satisfied”), doubts about Biden’s policies in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are higher.
As far back as May 2021, Biden and his advisers offered to talk to Russian leader Vladimir Putin about preventing an all-out war, vowing “unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity in the face of Russia’s ongoing aggression.”
So far, Biden’s efforts haven’t worked. In a few months, the conflict will enter its third year, with Russia just launching yet another offensive in a war that has already claimed an estimated half a million dead or wounded, according to U.S. officials.
It’s important to note that in Congress, Biden has so far enjoyed bipartisan support, with Republicans backing most of the president’s initiatives in Ukraine.
Since Russia’s invasion in February 2022, “Ukraine has become far and away the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid. It’s the first time that a European country has held the top spot since the Harry S. Truman administration directed vast sums into rebuilding the continent through the Marshall Plan after World War II,” according to the Council on Foreign Relations.
But there are major concerns with this. While many Americans are sympathetic with Ukraine, issues of endemic corruption in President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government have been raised both here and abroad.
Former European Commission President Claude Juncker recently said Ukraine couldn’t possibly join the European Union because it is, in his words, “corrupt at all levels of society.” That is a sentiment shared by many.
A leaked memo from the Biden administration echoes that concern.
“Perceptions of high-level corruption,” according to the memo, which Politico obtained, could “undermine the Ukrainian public’s and foreign leaders’ confidence in the war-time government.”
It’s also undermining U.S. support. TIPP Insights polling data show that support for financial aid to Ukraine has fallen from 56% in March to 45% in October, while backing for military support has dropped from 62% in April to 49% this month.
Even so, Biden has been steadfast this year. Last February, while visiting Poland, the president had this to say: “Our support for Ukraine will not waver. NATO will not be divided, and we will not tire.”
But a top-secret memo that leaked not long after Biden’s comments showed far less internal optimism within the administration, predicting only “modest territorial gains” against the Russians this year. So far, despite some ground gains, that pessimistic outlook appears to be holding up.
Americans have hoped that the David vs. Goliath story of a smaller country beating a much bigger one would become a reality. But right now, Russia is in the middle of yet another offensive in Donbas, Ukraine, marked by “very heated” fighting between the two sides.
Meanwhile, tensions between the U.S. and Russia are growing, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying late last month: “You can call this whatever you want to call this, but they (the U.S. and NATO) are directly at war with us. We can call this a hybrid war, but that doesn’t change the reality.”
He added, “They are effectively engaged in hostilities with us, using the Ukrainians as fodder.”
Americans are clearly uneasy about the conflict, when it will end, and who will come out on top, as this month’s I&I/TIPP Poll demonstrates. While U.S. voters remain angry over Russia’s invasion of a neighboring country, they also remain concerned about instability in Eastern Europe as the war goes on, not to mention the ongoing cost of the war to U.S. taxpayers, which continues to grow.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Hundreds Feared Dead In Gaza Hospital Blast As Biden Heads To Israel – BBC
Hundreds of Palestinians are feared dead after a huge blast at a hospital in Gaza City, blamed by Hamas on an Israeli air strike.
But Israel says the blast was caused by rockets misfired by another group, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and both sides deny blame.
2. Jordan Cancels Biden’s Trip To Amman After Gaza Hospital Attack: FM – Al Arabiya
Jordanian FM Ayman Safadi said that the four-way summit between President Biden and the leaders of Jordan, Egypt, and Palestine had been scrapped after the reported Israeli airstrike on a Gaza hospital.
Safadi was quoted as telling Al Jazeera that there was no use in talking “now about anything except stopping the war.”
According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, the strike on Al-Ahli Baptist Hospital in the Gaza Strip has killed at least 500 people.
3. Hamas Holding 250 Hostages, Including IDF Officers – Infographics – tippinsights
Hamas claims to hold 200-250 hostages, including high-ranking IDF officers and is demanding the release of about 6,000 Palestinians held in Israeli jails in return.
Ronen Bar, director of Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet, has taken responsibility for the failures that enabled the Hamas attacks that killed more than 1,400 people on October 7 but has said, “There will be time for investigations. Now we fight”.
Israeli Towns Evacuated Under Threat From Second Front – Infographics – tippinsights
Israel is evacuating 28 towns along the Lebanon border for greater “operational freedom” to tackle escalating attacks by Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and Syria.
5. North Korean Weapons Linked To Hamas Attack On Israel – Infographics – tippinsights
South Korea’s military has said that attacks on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas may have used weapons supplied by North Korea.
The weapons include F-7s, a high-explosive fragmentation rocket produced in North Korea, and 122mm artillery shells with markings similar to North Korean ones.
Pyongyang has denied allegations that its weapons were used by Hamas in the attack against Israel as “a groundless and false rumor,” saying the claim was part of Washington’s bid to divert the blame for the conflict from itself.
6. Hamas’s $700 Million Network Of Support – Infographics -tippinsights
Hamas is one of the wealthiest terrorist groups in the world, with an annual turnover estimated at $700 million, flowing in from taxes, financial aid, and donations from regional powers.
Following Hamas’s deadly attack on Israel on October 7, countries and organizations that support the Palestinian Islamist movement are under scrutiny.
Economic, military, and ideological support for Hamas comes from regional powers Qatar, Iran, and Turkey. Qatar’s financial support of more than $350 million supports infrastructure and families in extreme poverty in the Gaza Strip, which has a 45.3% jobless rate.
7. MI5 Fears Israel-Gaza War Could Fuel Radicalization – BBC
England’s security service MI5 is monitoring for increased risks to the UK as the Israel-Gaza war continues, its head has told the BBC.
He also warned there was a risk that events in the Middle East could radicalize people towards violence. He was speaking at an unprecedented public appearance of the Five Eyes alliance security chiefs in California.
8. Russia’s Medvedev: Strike On Gaza Hospital Constitutes ‘War Crime,’ U.S. Responsible – Al Arabiya
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and the deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council said the deadly strike on a hospital in the Gaza Strip was a “heinous military crime.” They accused the U.S. of bearing the ultimate responsibility.
He added that Washington is “allocating enormous sums for arms contracts, giving work to its defense sector” and “making deceitful proclamations about its global quest to defend democratic values,” as state news agency TASS cited.
9. Ukraine Attacks Russian Targets With Missile System Secretly Given By The U.S. – WION
Ukraine’s armed forces used recently acquired American long-range missiles against Russia for the first time on Tuesday.
Ukraine reportedly deployed the Army Tactical Missile System (ATAMS) to strike two air bases in territory now overtaken by Russia.
President Biden, who was previously hesitant to provide these weapons to Ukraine, ultimately authorized the covert delivery by the Pentagon in response to what they said was Ukraine’s urgent needs on the field against the Russian offensive.
10. Putin Praises ‘Dear Friend’ Xi In Beijing Summit, Invites World To Invest In Northern Sea Route – WION
Russian President Vladimir Putin of Russia praised Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) summit in Beijing.
On his second visit outside the former Soviet Union since the Ukraine war, Putin took the opportunity to market Russia’s much-touted Northern Sea Route (NSR) and invited global investments in the project he claims would deepen trade ties between East and West.
The NSR runs eastwards from Murmansk, near Russia’s border with Norway, to the Bering Strait near Alaska.
11. Xi Hails Belt And Road’s Growth From ‘Sketch’ To Reality – Nikkei Asia
Chinese President Xi Jinping said future Belt and Road Initiative projects will be “small yet smart” and market-oriented, signaling a shift in the decade-old initiative often criticized for contributing to debt distress in developing countries.
In a keynote address to foreign leaders and businesspeople in Beijing, Xi proposed to enhance connectivity by integrating ports and maritime and land routes between Asia and Europe.
12. China GDP Beats Forecast As Stimulus Measures Kick In – Nikkei Asia
China’s economic growth slowed to 4.9% on the year in the July-September period, down from 6.3% the quarter before, the National Bureau of Statistics said.
The result beat an average market forecast of 4.4%, as the world’s second-largest economy looked to be finding a somewhat firmer footing after policy interventions by authorities.
13. MI5 Head Warns Of ‘Epic Scale’ Of Chinese Espionage – BBC
More than 20,000 people in the UK have been approached covertly online by Chinese spies, the head of MI5 said. It comes amid a new warning to tens of thousands of British businesses of the risk of having their innovation stolen.
U.S., UK, Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand security agency heads appeared together. They did so for the first time to warn of commercial secrets being obtained by China.
14. U.S.-China Chip War: Nvidia Hit As China Cut Off From More Advanced Chips – BBC
The Biden administration has announced new restrictions on exports of advanced chips to China, including two made-for-China chips from Nvidia.
The curbs aim to close loopholes that became apparent after the U.S. announced export curbs on chips last October. They are designed to prevent China’s military from importing advanced semiconductors or equipment.
Analysts believe Nvidia will be hit the hardest because China accounts for up to 25% of its data center chip sales revenues.
15. Top U.S. Nuke Envoy Says ‘Deeply Concerned’ About What N.K. Would Get In Return For Arms Supply To Russia – Yonhap
Sung Kim, the U.S. special representative for North Korea, made the remarks during a trilateral meeting with its South Korean and Japanese counterparts.
“We are deeply concerned about what Russia is providing the DPRK in return … This expansive military cooperation undermines the global nonproliferation regime and threatens stability and security,” Kim said.
16. Sudan Conflict: Ethnic Cleansing Committed In Darfur, UK Says – BBC
Analysis of satellite and social media data reveals at least 68 villages in Darfur have been set on fire by armed militias since the civil war began.
Andrew Mitchell, the UK Minister for Africa, said this bore “all the hallmarks of ethnic cleansing.“ It is the British government’s first use of the term to describe what is happening in Sudan.
17. India Aims To Send Astronaut To The Moon By 2040 – BBC
The country’s space goals also include plans for a space station by 2035.
The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) is also working on the Gaganyaan project, which aims to send a human crew to an orbit of 248 miles and bring them back safely to land in Indian waters.
In August, India became the first country to land a spacecraft on the Moon’s south pole, and in September, it launched a rocket to study the Sun.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
