- Disagreements over funding requests have created a political deadlock
- Speaker Mike Johnson’s surprise move fully funded Israel but left out Ukraine, border funding and redirected unspent IRS expansion money
- Senate leader Schumer plans to pass a comprehensive bill, challenging Johnson’s approach
- Johnson’s strategy involves tying Ukraine funding to border security measures, setting the stage for a political battle with uncertain outcomes
In our years watching the wily GOP leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, we know that much like a magician, he always has a trick up his sleeve. Counting him and his clever tactics out – he is the master of senate parliamentary procedures – is a chess game we will likely lose.
With that caveat, it appears that Biden, the Democrats in the Senate, and the Neocon Senate GOP, including McConnell, Lindsey Graham, Susan Collins, and other ardent supporters of Ukraine funding, are hopelessly boxed in; unless, of course, the House leadership under Speaker Johnson caves before the pressure of a government shutdown. (The government only has funding through November 17.)
There are several rapidly moving parts to this story.
The opening salvo. After visiting Israel, President Biden delivered an address to Americans requesting $106 billion for national emergencies. The breakdown was $61.4 billion for Ukraine, $14.3 billion for Israel’s air and missile defenses, $9 billion for humanitarian assistance in Israel, Gaza, and Ukraine, $7 billion for Taiwan, and $14 billion for America’s southern border. At the time, the House was leaderless, having vacated former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.
Move 1. During the next few weeks, the House went through multiple speaker votes, trying out various candidates – Jim Jordan, Steve Calise, and Tom Emmer – and finally settled on Mike Johnson. The Louisiana Republican was largely unknown to the pro-Ukraine lobby, having served as a relative backbencher. But Johnson has a staunch Christian conservative voting record, strongly supports Israel, hates omnibus bills where numerous unrelated items are packed into one, and cares about the growing deficit. He also has a history of voting against money for Ukraine. The pro-Ukraine and soft-on-border groups felt uneasy but hoped that time and Beltway pressures would tame the new speaker. That was the Uniparty’s first mistake.
Move 2. In a classic move, Speaker Johnson led a House bill that passed 226-196 on Wednesday. The bill only contained money for Israel’s military defense – the $14.3 billion that Biden requested. But, it fully funded the request, so if Biden wanted to make a statement to the world that America fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself, the People’s House had spoken.
But there were two significant problems for the Uniparty. There was no money for Ukraine or Biden’s other priorities, including the border. Also, Johnson paid for the bill by using unspent money set aside for the massive expansion of the IRS. This $80 billion boondoggle, all borrowed, hiring 87,000 new IRS agents, received Pelosi’s blessing on her way out as speaker last December.
The corporate media and the Uniparty pounced on Johnson, saying he was fiscally irresponsible because a CBO study showed that fewer IRS agents would lead to lower tax revenue and higher deficits. Senate leader Schumer promised not even to take it up. “Speaker Johnson and House Republicans released a totally unserious and woefully inadequate package that omitted aid to Ukraine, omitted humanitarian assistance to Gaza, no funding for the Indo-Pacific, and made funding for Israel conditional on hard-right, never-going-to-pass proposals,” Schumer said on the Senate floor Wednesday. “What a joke. It’s not going anywhere. As I said, it’s dead almost before it’s born.”
In classic fashion, Schumer vowed to pass his version in the Senate (the full $106 billion, plus perhaps more money for the border to attract GOP votes) and send it to the House.
Move 3. But Speaker Johnson was up to Schumer’s challenge. Appearing on Larry Kudlow’s Fox Business show, Johnson said that his next move would be to tie Ukraine funding to border funding. Employing a classic poison-pill strategy, Johnson said that he would include money for Ukraine (how much, he didn’t say), but that would be conditional on five border security things that must happen:
- Finish the wall
- End catch and release
- End abuse of parole authority
- Reform the broken asylum system and
- Restart ‘Remain in Mexico.’
Johnson’s move is brilliant because, unlike on Ukraine, he has substantial support from GOP senators on his approach to beefing up border security. As we noted this week, the Democrats only want money to spend on sanctuary cities but not prevent more illegal migration.
ABC News said that Steve Daines, R-Mont, is one such senator.
That supplemental the Biden administration proposed is a joke. It is not about throwing more money at the border, we’ve got to slow the flow, it’s about changing policies. They don’t need a lot more money at the border; they’ve got to change the policies to remove the incentives to come across the border.
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, R-W.Va. said:
This needs to be deterrence, needs to be a change in policy, it needs to be made sure that what we’re going to do is see these (migration) numbers come down not just a little bit but very very measurably.
Schumer is vehemently opposed to ANY policy changes on the border, saying:
We are not for policy changes
The Uniparty’s move is awaited. If the Senate sends to the House a massive $106+ billion request without offsets to pay for the spending, the bill will be dead on arrival. It could pass with Democratic and a few moderate Republican votes, of course, but Speaker Johnson has the power to not even bring it up for a vote, the privilege of being the chamber’s leader.
The media will cry foul and blame it all on the GOP House. But the blame game is typical in Washington. Meanwhile, nothing will get done on either the border or Ukraine. Illegal migration will continue unabated. Sanctuary cities will continue to struggle. Ukraine (and Europe) will suffer without a promise of funding.
In our system, both the House and Senate have to agree to each word in any legislation. Every word. Only then can it go to President Biden’s desk for signature. That moment looks distant – so no checkmate for either party, but a draw.
But, for the House GOP and the average American taxpayer determined to neutralize the out-of-control Beltway deficit-loving crowd, a draw may well be a win.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
1. Pentagon Acknowledges Flying Unarmed Drones Over Gaza – BBC
Pentagon spokesman Brig Gen Pat Ryder said the drones were operating in “support of hostage recovery efforts.” The acknowledgment comes after reporters spotted unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) on flight-tracking websites.
Unnamed U.S. military officials told the New York Times that the drones were not helping coordinate Israeli military action in and around Gaza.
2. Israel’s Netanyahu Rejects Calls For Halt In Fighting Until Hostages Released – UPI
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement came after discussions regarding a possible ceasefire from the U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who arrived in Israel Friday.
Blinken addressed numerous issues in connection with the conflict, expressing a concern that the fighting could spread because of Iran-supported groups such as Hezbollah.
Blinken said he addressed the civilian deaths of Palestinians directly to Netanyahu and echoed President Joe Biden’s call for a humanitarian pause.
3. Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Warns Wider Mideast Conflict Is ‘Realistic Possibility’ – Reuters
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, speaking for the first time since the Israel-Hamas war erupted, warned that a wider conflict in the Middle East was a realistic possibility.
Hezbollah has been escalating day by day, forcing Israel to keep its forces near the Lebanese border instead of the Gaza Strip and the occupied West Bank, Nasrallah said in a televised address, speaking for the first time since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on October 7.
4. U.S. Doesn’t Want To See Israel-Hamas War Expand To Lebanon: White House – ANI
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Hezbollah and other actors, including state and non-state, should not take advantage of the ongoing conflict.
Karine Jean-Pierre said that she is aware of the Hezbollah leader’s speech and added that the U.S. will not engage in a war of words. She said that the U.S. does not seek escalation of the conflict that Hamas has brought on Israel.
5. Israeli Military Confirms It Targeted Ambulance Outside Gaza’s Largest Hospital – Reuters
Israel’s military said it had identified and hit an ambulance “being used by a Hamas terrorist cell” in the battle zone.
Health authorities in the Hamas-controlled enclave said they were evacuating wounded people from the besieged north to the south of the territory.
6. “USA Will Collapse Just Like The USSR,” Claims Hamas’s New Warning: Report – ANI
Senior Hamas official Ali Baraka warned that one day, the United States of America would be a “thing of the past” and “collapse like the USSR,” the Jerusalem Post reported.
“Today, Russia contacts us daily. The Chinese sent envoys to Doha, and China and Russia met with the leaders of Hamas. A Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow, and soon, a delegation will travel to Beijing,” Jerusalem Post quoted Baraka as saying.
7. Israel’s Fight With Iran Proxies In Syria Poisons Russia Ties – Bloomberg
The development comes with a key shift in Israeli policy – it no longer always tells Syria’s patron, Russia, in advance about attacks on Syrian territory.
“As a general rule,” Israel isn’t informing Russia before its strikes in Syria, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov said, according to the Interfax news service. “We find out after they happen.” The change is worsening already troubled relations between Israel and Russia.
8. U.S., European Officials Broach Topic Of Peace Negotiations With Ukraine, Sources Say – NBC News
U.S. and European officials have begun quietly talking to the Ukrainian government about what possible peace negotiations with Russia might entail to end the war, according to one current senior U.S. official and one former senior U.S. official familiar with the discussions.
The conversations have included very broad outlines of what Ukraine might need to give up to reach a deal, the officials said. Some of the talks, which officials described as delicate, took place last month during a meeting of representatives known as the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, the officials said.
9. U.S. Announces $425-M Military Aid Package For Ukraine – AFP
The United States announced a new $425-million military assistance package for Ukraine that features air defense and artillery munitions and anti-tank weapons.
That equipment, along with small arms ammunition, demolition munitions, and other items, is part of $125 million in gear drawn from existing American military stocks.
The U.S. is by far the biggest donor of security assistance to Ukraine, committing more than $44.2 billion since Moscow’s forces invaded Ukraine.
10. Waves Of Russian Attack Drones Strike Infrastructure Targets Across Ukraine – UPI
Up to 48 attack UAVs were launched from Russia’s Kursk and Primorsko-Akhtarsk regions in a wave of attacks against cities and regions from Lviv in the west to Odessa in the south and Kharkiv in the northeast, the Ukraine Air Force reported.
Critical infrastructure facilities in the Lviv region suffered five hits from drones, setting at least one ablaze, according to the Lviv Regional Military Administration Head. No casualties have been reported.
11. Ukraine’s Commander-In-Chief On The Breakthrough He Needs To Beat Russia – The Economist
Sharing his first comprehensive assessment of the campaign in an interview this week, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Valery Zaluzhny, says the battlefield reminds him of the great conflict of a century ago.
“Just like in the First World War, we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate,” he says. The general concludes that it would take a massive technological leap to break the deadlock. “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough.”
12. Xi And Scholz Talk Economy, Deepening Global Crises In Video Call – Al Jazeera
Chinese President Xi Jinping and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have held talks over video at a time when the European Union is trying to reduce its dependence on the world’s second-largest economy.
“China regards Europe as a comprehensive strategic partner and an important pole in a multipolar world,” state broadcaster CCTV reported Xi as telling Scholz.
Tensions between China and the EU are growing over issues, including Beijing’s growing relationship with Russia and some of its unfair trade practices.
13. What China Wants From Israel-Hamas War – BBC
As the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies, an unlikely development has emerged – China playing the part of peace broker. But why?
One reason is its economic interests in the Middle East, which would be endangered if the conflict widens. Beijing is now heavily dependent on imports for oil, and analysts estimate about half of that comes from the Gulf. Another reason is the conflict presents a golden opportunity for Beijing to burnish its reputation.
14. Canada Slams China Over Second ‘Unsafe’ Aircraft Intercept – AFP
Canada’s Defense Minister Bill Blair slammed Chinese fighter jets’ second “significantly unsafe” intercept in two weeks of Canadian aircraft patrolling the Pacific.
Blair said that a Chinese fighter jet on October 29, on its second flyby, fired flares “directly in front” of the Canadian helicopter.
The helicopter and HMCS Ottawa were in the South China Sea as part of the United States and allied “freedom of navigation” crossings to reinforce the body’s status as an international waterway.
15. UN Says ‘Horrible Suffering’ In Sudan Growing As More People Displaced – RFI
“Six months and six million people forced to move, that’s an average of one million per month; it’s horrible suffering,” said Mamadou Dian Balde, the top regional official for the UN’s refugee agency (UNHCR).
The war between troops loyal to Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of General Mohamed Hamdan Daglo has left more than 9,000 dead since April, according to a UN report.
16. Anti-Mercury Pollution Treaty Eyes Ban On Fluorescent Tubes By 2027 – Kyodo News
The members of an international convention against mercury pollution agreed to ban the production and trade of fluorescent tubes by 2027, citing the human health risks posed by the equipment’s use of the substance.
As the Minamata Convention on Mercury already prohibits the production, export, and import of fluorescent bulbs, the manufacturing of all types of products for general purposes will be suspended within four years.
17. Europe Bans Use Of Personal Data For Targeted Ads On Facebook, Instagram – RFI
The EU’s data regulator has banned Facebook and Instagram from using personal data for targeted advertising without explicit consent from users.
The European Data Protection Board (EDPB) chair Anu Talus said the decision was taken after Meta, which has struggled to comply with the strict rules of the EU’s 2018 General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), failed to comply with orders issued at the end of last year.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
