Biden’s report card – a liability for reelection

• President Biden’s job approval rating and grades for core issues are poor
• While Biden’s support among Democrats remains relatively strong, it is weak among others
• Biden faces challenges in both domestic and foreign affairs
• The prospects of President Biden’s reelection appear grim
• RELATED: One In Four Americans Now Believe Biden’s Election In 2020 Wasn’t ‘Legitimate’: I&I/TIPP Poll

President Biden’s job approval ratings improved from a 35-month low of 33% in December to 36% in early January. That is the key finding of a nationwide TIPP Poll conducted among 1,401 adults and completed on Friday. The poll has a credibility interval of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

Among Democrats, more than two-thirds (72%) approve of the job he is doing as president. In contrast, a majority of Republicans (87%) and a significant portion of independents (60%) disapprove. Six out of ten (62%) liberals approve, while only 22% of conservatives and a third of moderates express approval.

TIPP developed the Presidential Leadership Index to facilitate easy tracking, an innovative metric considering favorability, job approval, and Presidential Leadership.

The Presidential Leadership Index is calculated as the average of these three components. Readings above 50.0 signify optimism, while readings below 50.0 indicate pessimism.

Overall, the index gained 2.4 points to record 39.6 from 37.2 in December, the lowest reading since Biden took office. Among the 36 demographic groups we track, only eight posted readings above 50.

Breaking it down by party, Democrats showed a 3.2-point gain, increasing from 73.1 in December to 76.3 in January. Republicans, on the other hand, saw a 0.1-point decline to 11.4, while independents improved 3.5 points to 29.5.

Why are President Biden’s approval ratings taking a hit?

Under Biden’s leadership, most Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction. The survey reveals that only 13% are very satisfied with the country’s direction, and an additional 20% are somewhat satisfied. Meanwhile, two-thirds (65%) are dissatisfied, with 29% not very satisfied and another 36% not at all satisfied.

Our Direction of Country Index converts these responses to facilitate easy tracking and ranges from 0 to 100, where scores above 50 are considered positive, below 50 are negative, and 50 represents a neutral standpoint.

The overall index has been in the pessimistic region since August 2021. In January, Republicans (20.3) and independents (28.0) are pessimistic, while Democrats (57.5) are somewhat upbeat.

Let us dig deeper and look at a few issues important to Americans.

Handling Of The Economy

The economy is the #1 issue for Americans, and Biden fails miserably on that front. His economic policies, collectively branded as “Bidenomics,” have not favored Americans. Bidenflation, the price increase for goods and services under Biden’s watch, runs at 17%.

Americans’ wages have stagnated, and many have taken up second jobs or rely on credit cards to make ends meet. Also, squeezed by high Bidenflation, Americans are racking up credit card debt.

In a recent TIPP Poll, 58% said they weren’t better off than they were four years ago, before the COVID-19 pandemic, while only 34% said they were.

Overall, one-half (52%) give Biden a “D” or “F” for his handling of the economy. Only 28% give him good grades.

56% of Democrats give him good grades. Meanwhile, most Republicans (80%) and independents (57%) give him failing grades.

Last week, the national debt crossed the $34 trillion mark. On average, the government has borrowed $250,000 for each American household. The government is paying upwards of $1 trillion annually in interest—more than it spends on the nation’s defense!

Most Americans believe the debt situation is unsustainable and want to rein in government spending. Recently, President Biden’s proposal to spend $100 billion on Ukraine, Israel, and border security was blocked by the Republican-controlled House.

Overall, one-half (51%) give Biden a “D” or “F” for his handling of spending and taxes. Only 26% give him good grades.

While 52% of Democrats give him good grades, Republicans (82%) and independents (56%) give him failing grades.

Immigration

Biden has neglected the influx of migrants through the southern border. Estimates say as many as seven million people have crossed the border under the President’s watch. It is not an exaggeration to state that there is an invasion at the southern border, and the crisis results from the Biden administration’s weak immigration policies.

Americans consider immigration the country’s second-most important issue after the economy. Even Democratic politicians in several states have declared states of emergency due to the border crisis.

A majority (57%) are dissatisfied with his handling of immigration and border security. Only one in five (20%) are satisfied. While 40% of Democrats are satisfied, 84% of Republicans are dissatisfied. Meanwhile, nearly two-thirds (63%) of independents are dissatisfied.

Handling Crime

Weak immigration policies contribute to an increase in crime. Americans are experiencing increased crime in their neighborhoods.

This month, over half (51%) give Biden failing grades for his handling of crime. Only 23% give him an A or B.

Nearly half (45%) of Democrats give him an A or B. A large share (28%) gives him only a C. Another 22% give him a D or F.

Most Republicans (55%) give him an F, with another 25% giving him a D. Meanwhile, most independents grade him poorly: 35% give him a F, and 21% give him a D.

Anti-Semitism

The outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has brought attention to antisemitism in America. Three-fourths (76%) of respondents in a recent I&I/TIPP Poll called antisemitism and anti-Jewish prejudice either a very serious (43%) or a somewhat serious (33%) problem.

Many feel that Biden has not addressed the problem forcefully. Only one-fourth (25%) give him good grades.

Foreign Policy

While Biden is not doing well on domestic issues, he is also not doing well with foreign affairs. The TIPP Standing In The World Index measures how Americans feel about the nation’s standing in the world, a proxy measure of the effectiveness of the president’s foreign policy.

The index ranges from 0 to 100, where scores above 50 are considered positive, scores below 50 are negative, and 50 represents a neutral standpoint.

The overall index has been in the pessimistic region since August 2021. In January, Republicans (22.6) and independents (30.8) are pessimistic, while Democrats are barely optimistic at 57.2.

Handling The Israel-Hamas Conflict

Nearly half (47%) of the poll participants are unhappy with his handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Just a quarter (23%) give him good grades.

While nearly half (45%) of Democrats give him positive grades, a quarter (24%) give him a C, and another 24% give him failing grades of D or F.

Two-thirds (68%) of Republicans and half of independents (51%) give him failing grades.

Handling Iran

A segment of Americans thinks that the $6 billion Biden gave to Iran has helped fund Hamas’s terrorist activities. Biden’s efforts to slow Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear bomb have not been effective.

Nearly one-half (46%) give him failing grades, while one-fifth (22%) give him favorable grades.

Russia-Ukraine War

The U.S. is fighting a proxy war with Russia, and President Biden has yet to develop a strategy to end the war. ‘As long as it takes’ is his strategy. Most Americans think Biden has not done enough to end the war. He has already committed over $100 billion, and the U.S. is on tap to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, estimated at $750 billion.

The data echoes the dissatisfaction, with 45% giving him a D or F for handling the war. Only 28% see Biden in a positive light on this issue.

Dissatisfaction runs high among Republicans (74%) and independents (50%), while 54% of Democrats are satisfied.

Handling China

Americans don’t think President Biden is tough against China, the country’s biggest competitor.

Only one in five (24%) gives him good grades on the issue. Only Democrats (46%) are satisfied. Most Republicans (75%) and independents (49%) are unhappy.

Handling North Korea

In recent days, North Korea has fired missiles toward South Korea on three separate occasions.

Only one in five (23%) gives him good grades on his handling of the country. Nearly one-half of Democrats (46%) are satisfied. However, most Republicans (71%) and many independents (46%) are dissatisfied.

Overall Performance

When asked to grade Biden’s overall performance as president so far, only 28% give him an A or B, eight points less than his job approval of 36%.

Over one-half of Democrats (54%) give him good grades. Most Republicans (82%) and independents (58%) give failing grades.

The chart below summarizes how Americans see Biden’s handling of issues. Notice that Biden gets favorable ratings from fewer than 30% of people on all issues.

Further, a majority gives him a D or F for four issues and pegs him in the 40% to 50% range on six issues.

In summary, Biden’s approval rating of 36% is worrisome in the context of the coming elections. Despite the advantages of incumbency, Biden may have reached a point of no return, and his chances of reelection appear grim.

TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

1. Blinken To Meet PM Netanyahu As Israel Says War Against Hamas To Continue All Year – Al Arabiya

Secretary of State Antony Blinken was due to meet Israeli leaders on Tuesday in his quest to prevent the Gaza conflict from growing into a regional conflagration, as the Israeli military said its fight against Hamas would continue all year.

He said he would press Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government “on the absolute imperative to do more to protect civilians and to do more to ensure that humanitarian assistance is getting into the hands of those who need it.”

2. Israeli Strike On Lebanon Kills Senior Commander In Hezbollah’s Radwan Force: Sources – Reuters

An Israeli strike killed a commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in south Lebanon, security sources familiar with the group’s operations in Lebanon said.

Wissam al-Tawil, the deputy head of a Radwan unit, and another Hezbollah fighter were killed when the car they were in was struck in the village of Majdal Selm. The strike is one of the most high-profile attacks on its senior officers in three months of hostilities with Israel.

3. South Korea’s Spy Agency: Hamas Used North Korean Weapons Against Israel – VOA

South Korea’s spy agency confirmed that Palestinian militant group Hamas has been using North Korean-made weapons in its conflict with Israel, amid a report of new photos showing weapons etched with Korean characters retrieved in the conflict.

The National Intelligence Service (NIS) said its “assessment is the same as the VOA report” and that it is “collecting and accumulating” information about how much and when North Korea’s weapons were transferred to Hamas.

4. Sri Lanka To Join US-Led Naval Operations Against Houthi Rebels In Red Sea – ABC

Debt-ridden Sri Lanka’s navy is preparing to join a U.S.-led operation to protect merchant vessels sailing in the Red Sea against attacks by Houthi rebels, a Sri Lankan navy spokesman said on Tuesday.

5. A Communist Candidate Gets Approval To Run In The Russian Presidential Election – AP

Russia’s national elections commission has registered the Communist Party’s candidate to compete with President Vladimir Putin in the March election that Putin is all but certain to win.

Nikolai Kharitonov joins two other candidates approved for the ballot last week. Kharitonov, a member of the lower house of parliament, has opposed some of Putin’s domestic policies but not Russia’s military operation in Ukraine. As the party’s candidate in the 2004 election, he tallied just 13.8%.

6. Next NATO Member Commits Troops to Russia Border After 200-Year Neutrality – Newsweek

Sweden—sat in the NATO waiting room until Hungary and Turkey drop their opposition to Stockholm’s accession—has committed to sending “ground combat units” to participate in alliance operations along the Russian border.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said on Monday that Stockholm would not wait for ratification of its membership bid by the two rogue alliance parliaments in Ankara and Budapest and would send Swedish troops to Latvia on NATO’s eastern frontier.

7. Ukraine Says It Exported 15M Tons of Cargo Via Black Sea – Reuters

Ukraine has exported 15 million metric tons of cargo through its Black Sea shipping corridor, including 10 million tons of agricultural goods, Deputy Prime Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said.

Ukraine launched the corridor hugging the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria in August, shortly after Russia withdrew from a 2022 U.N.-brokered Black Sea grain export deal and threatened to treat all vessels as potential military targets.

8. White House Pushes Defense Industries on Tech Help for Ukraine – VOA

According to National Security Council aides, White House officials met with leaders from the technology and defense industry sectors to discuss how to give Ukraine cutting-edge U.S. equipment such as unmanned aerial systems or demining gear and support its bid to defend itself from Russia.

The meeting between industry experts and government officials on new technological capabilities comes as President Joe Biden’s more than $100 billion supplemental aid package, which includes support for Ukraine, languishes in Congress.

9. Germany’s Scholz Urges Fellow EU Members To Increase Weapons Deliveries To Ukraine – RFE/RL

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has called on fellow European Union members to provide more military support this year to Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Scholz called at a joint press conference with Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Friedman in Berlin. Germany is Ukraine’s second-largest provider of military aid after the United States.

10. China’s Top Diplomat Says Ties With U.S. ‘Stabilised’ Last Year – AFP

Speaking at Beijing’s opulent Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi admitted relations had “encountered serious difficulties at the beginning of (last) year.”

“After hard work, the two sides have restructured communication and dialogue, and bilateral relations have stopped falling and stabilized,” Wang added.

Wang stressed that Biden had pledged to Xi that the U.S. “does not support Taiwan independence” during their meeting last year.

11. Taiwan Poll Frontrunner Hits Out At Beijing ‘Interference’ – AFP

Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president and Taiwan’s presidential election frontrunner, accused Beijing of using “all means” to influence this weekend’s crucial poll, which will set the course of cross-strait ties for the next four years.

Beijing has maintained a near-daily military presence around Taiwan – with four Chinese balloons moving across the sensitive median line on Monday, the latest in a series of incursions that Taiwan and conflict experts say is a form of “grey zone” harassment.

12. U.S. Nervous About ‘Flood’ Of Older-Generation Chips From China – Nikkei Asia

The U.S. is attempting to reduce its reliance on older-generation semiconductors from China, adding another layer of defense after months of attempting to restrict China’s access to advanced chip technology.

A committee is urging immediate trade barriers to undermine Beijing’s leverage. The older-generation chips pale compared to the most cutting-edge models but are still widely used in everything from dishwashers to electric vehicles.

13. China’s Air Force ‘Burned Missile Fuel To Make Hotpot’: Ex-Officer – RFA

Rampant corruption and funding shortfalls are eating away at the People’s Liberation Army’s ability to equip its own forces, according to a former People’s Liberation Navy Lieutenant Colonel.

PLA Navy Lt. Col. Yao Cheng, a former staff officer of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force Command who fled to the United States in 2016, described air force personnel taking away chunks of solid missile fuel to use as fuel for meals of traditional Chinese hotpot during his time as a serving officer.

14. U.S. Designates China, Pakistan As ‘Countries Of Particular Concern’ – WION

The countries of China, North Korea, and Pakistan have been designated as “Countries of Particular Concern” by the U.S. for engaging in and tolerating “particularly severe violations of religious freedom.”

While announcing the Religious Freedom Designations, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that advancing the freedom of belief or religion has been U.S. foreign policy’s core objective since the International Religious Freedom Act was passed and enacted by the United States in 1998.

15. China Surges To The Top Of Global Auto Exports – Wall Street Journal

Demand for gas-powered vehicles from Russia pushed sales of made-in-China cars to a record high.

Chinese carmakers seized the void left in the country by the departure of Western carmakers following the war in Ukraine, selling at least five times as many vehicles there last year than the 160,000 it sold in 2022, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

16. U.S. Has No Plans To Withdraw Troops From Iraq, Pentagon Says – Al Arabiya

“I’m not aware of any plans [to withdraw from Iraq],” Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said. “We continue to remain very focused on the defeat-ISIS mission,” Ryder added.

Pressure has been building for U.S. troops to withdraw after the defeat of ISIS was announced in recent years. After last week’s self-defense strike against the Iraqi militia commander Mushtaq Jawad Kasim al-Jawari, those calls increased from within Iraq.

17. U.S. Warplanes Conduct Training Exercise Over Bosnia On Eve Of Banned Bosnian Serb Day – RFE/RL

U.S. F-16 warplanes and a tanker aircraft flew over Bosnia-Herzegovina as part of a military exercise to demonstrate Washington’s backing for the Balkan country’s territorial integrity in the face of increasingly secessionist policies of Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik.

January 9 is celebrated as Republika Srpska Day in the Bosnian Serb entity, although the Constitutional Court of Bosnia has twice declared the holiday unconstitutional. The day marks the anniversary of the region’s 1992 declaration of independence, which ignited the 1992-95 Bosnian War.

18. Apple Challenges EU Rules On App Stores And Ios Designation As One Service – WION

Apple has lodged a challenge against the European Union’s tech rules, specifically contesting the classification of its five App Stores as a single core platform service under the Digital Markets Act (DMA).

The DMA, designed to regulate tech giants, imposes certain obligations on companies like Apple, including facilitating third-party interoperability with its services and allowing business users to promote offers and conclude contracts outside its platform.

19. U.S., UK Say Bangladesh Elections Extending Sheikh Hasina’s Rule Not Credible – A.P.

The United States and the United Kingdom said the elections that extended Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s rule were not credible, free, and fair.

Both countries, which have trade and development ties with Bangladesh, also condemned political violence that preceded Sunday’s election in which Hasina’s party won more than two-thirds of the parliamentary seats while turnout was low and the main opposition party boycotted.

20. ‘No Pardon For Attack On Democracy,’ Says Lula On Anniversary Of Jan 8 Brazil Riots – WION

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, on Monday (Jan 8), vowed that there will be no pardon for his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters who rioted in the capital last year in protest against an election result.

Last year, on January 8, tens of thousands of supporters of hard-right former president Bolsonaro stormed the Brazilian capital city’s buildings that symbolize the country’s democracy a week after Lula had taken office.

21. Pope Calls For Global Ban On Surrogacy – A.P.

Pope Francis called for a universal ban on the “despicable” practice of surrogate motherhood, as he included the “commercialization” of pregnancy in an annual speech listing threats to global peace and human dignity.

In a foreign policy address to ambassadors accredited to the Holy See, Francis lamented that 2024 had dawned at a time in history in which peace is “increasingly threatened, weakened and in some part lost.”

22. A 1-Litre Bottle Of Water Contains Some 240,000 Plastic Fragments: Study – Bloomberg

The researchers determined that many of those fragments have historically gone undetected, suggesting that health concerns linked to plastic pollution may be dramatically underestimated.

The study published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences is the first to evaluate bottled water for the presence of “nanoplastics” – plastic particles under 1 micrometer in length, or one-seventieth the width of a human hair.

Nanoplastics threaten human health more than microplastics because they’re small enough to penetrate human cells, enter the bloodstream, and impact organs.

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights