The Daily BS • Bo Snerdley Cuts Through It!

Get my Daily BS twice-a-day news stack directly to your email.


Will Trump’s rising support from minority voters put him back into the White House? I&I/TIPP poll

by



As 2023 has ended and a new year begun, those looking for a big change in the presidential polls for either major party may be disappointed. The I&I/TIPP Poll taken in early January shows that both President Joe Biden (69% support) and former President Donald Trump (65%) have big leads currently in the primaries for their respective parties.

With little competition so far from others, what about the head-to-head competition between Biden vs. Trump?

I&I/TIPP’s national online I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,247 registered voters taken Jan. 3-5 shows that Trump holds a slender 1 percentage-point lead over Biden if the election were held today. The actual numbers are 41% Trump, 40% Biden, a virtual statistical tossup given the poll’s +/-2.8 percentage point margin of error.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

However, significant problems lurk for both candidates, but mainly for Biden, the data show.

Biden runs strongly in urban areas, taking 55% of that vote to Trump’s 31%. But the suburbs favor Trump 44% to Biden’s 38%, while Trump’s lead in rural areas is even larger: 49% Trump, 27% Biden. Urban voters in the I&I/TIPP survey make up just about 30% of all voters.

An even larger problem looms for Biden when it comes to minority voters, in particular blacks and Hispanics. In 2020, according to a Roper Survey exit poll of voters, Biden took an estimated 87% of the black vote and 65% of the Hispanic vote running against Trump, who received an estimated 12% of the black vote and 32% of the Hispanic tally.

This time around might be a surprise for the Democrats, who have long held a tight lock on the votes of the country’s two-largest minorities. Current I&I/TIPP data show Trump getting a near-identical level of Hispanic support as in 2020, 31%, but Biden’s backing has plunged from more than 60% to just 53%.

Of greater concern for Democrats is that Trump now holds a shocking 23% of the black vote, more than doubling his support from that key voting bloc since the last election. Add to that weakening support among Asian voters, and Biden could be in big trouble.

This has Democratic officials in a state of near-panic.

“I’m not worried — I’m very concerned,” said South Carolina Democrat Rep. James Clyburn, a key African-American congressional member who is widely credited with saving Biden from losing in 2020.

Former President Barack Obama has chimed in with his own advice, urging Biden to “bolster” his flagging campaign or risk losing.

White voters, too, pose a problem. At 2024’s start, Trump would get 47% of the white vote in a head-to-head matchup, versus just 35% going to Biden.

Trump’s support among Republicans almost perfectly mirrors Biden’s support among Democrats. Trump has 86% of the GOP, but just 6% of Democrat votes; Biden has 85% of Democrat ballots, but 7% of Republicans.

As such, independent voters may hold the key to victory for one or the other candidate. Right now, 34% of indie voters support Trump vs. 28% for Biden. That gives Trump the edge, though a sizable 23% of independents say they would prefer someone else and 13% say they’re “not sure.” That’s 36% of all independent voters.

Trump’s biggest negatives, apart from having a polarizing effect on the parties, are the legal hurdles he now faces at both the federal and state levels. He’s working through four separate indictments and, if convicted of any, might lose badly needed support.

But a bigger question for the Democrats looms: What if Biden decides not to run?

He’s 81, and many even within his own party have suggested he’s a bit long in the tooth to be running again for president. Also uppermost in the minds of his party’s stalwarts is his flagging favorability ratings in recent months, making him the least popular president in modern history, as inflation continues to erode working Americans’ standard of living.

Moreover, in a recent I&I/TIPP Poll, half of all Democrats suggested Biden should resign or be impeached if current investigations confirm growing evidence that suggests he took millions of dollars in bribes from foreign governments and their agents.

Biden could cruise fairly comfortably through the primaries. Matched against the only two Democrats who have opted to challenge him in the primaries — U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and author/activist/politician Marianne Williamson — Biden wins 69% of his party’s support. Phillips gets just 4%, while Williamson garners 5%.

I&I/TIPP asked voters a follow-on question: “If President Biden decides not to run in 2024, who would be your top choice for the Democratic candidate?”

The answer is sure not to please Democratic insiders: Biden’s Vice President Kamala Harris leads at 20%, followed by former first lady Michelle Obama (14%), Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie

Sanders (12%), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (10%), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and California Gov. Gavin Newsom (both at 8%), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (6%).

Minnesota Rep. Amy Klobuchar (3%) and Marianne Williamson (2%) both trail “someone else” (4%) in the poll.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

That leaves Democrats with a major problem. With Biden looking highly vulnerable, do they encourage him to drop out? Will he go through the primaries and then quit, basically letting the Democratic Party, not voters, choose the candidate? Or will Biden shock everyone and drop out early, throwing the nomination process wide open?

Many Democrats appear open to the idea of Biden stepping down in favor of Michelle Obama, which would in effect be a third-term Obama administration. Conservative commentator Megyn Kelly calls such a move a “whole new ballgame.”

In one final question, Americans were asked to assign their votes to Biden, Trump, or a list of five third-party or independent candidates, including independent attorney/activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former professor Cornell R. West, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Lars Mapstead, and No Labels candidate Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat.

“Other” and “not sure” were the only other choices.

The numbers show that with, with a third-party candidate, Trump’s lead over Biden actually widens to 3 percentage points, with Trump at 37% support compared to Biden’s 34%. All told, the combined third-party plus independent vote wins only 18% of the total.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Chris Christie, who got 2% in our poll, dropped out of the GOP primary race on Wednesday evening. Trump leads both Haley and DeSantis by 65% to 10% in the primary poll.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

So the latest I&I/TIPP data show with a third party or independent candidate won’t likely win, but one or more could cost Trump or Biden the presidency. And it would most likely be Biden. Get ready, because election night 2024 could be a long nailbiter. As actress Bette Davis once famously quipped, “Fasten your seat belts, it’s going to be a bumpy night.”

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

Want to dig deeper? Download crosstabs from our store for a small fee!

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll
Source: Washington Post

TIPP Takes

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More

1. Netanyahu Clarifies: Israel Has No Intention Of Permanently Occupying Gaza, Displacing Civilians – Jerusalem Post

In a video published in English on Wednesday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says, “Israel has no intention of permanently occupying Gaza or displacing its civilian population.”

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The video has likely been produced due to the upcoming South Africa vs Israel case at the International Court of Justice, in which South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza.


2. A Top U.N. Court Opens Hearings On Genocide Charges Against Israel – AP

Judges at the International Court of Justice on Thursday opened two days of legal arguments in a case filed by South Africa accusing Israel of genocide in its Gaza war. Israel rejects the allegation.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Lawyers for South Africa will ask judges at Thursday’s hearings to impose binding preliminary orders on Israel, including an immediate halt to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.


3. Blinken Tells Abbas U.S. Backs ‘Tangible Steps’ For Palestinian State – AFP

U.S. top diplomat Antony Blinken told Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas that Washington supports “tangible steps” towards creating a Palestinian state.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Blinken reiterated Washington’s longstanding position that a Palestinian state must stand alongside Israel, “with both living in peace and security,” State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said in a statement.

Palestinian statehood was anticipated following the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, but talks have been moribund for years.


4. U.S. Looks For Breakthrough After Hezbollah Signals Possible Lebanon-Israel Border Deal – Al Arabiya

Two senior American diplomats will arrive in Beirut this week as the U.S. ramps up its efforts to avert a new war between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel, with the two sides currently in a low-intensity conflict.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Speaking days after the Israeli strike that killed Hamas official Saleh al-Arouri, Nasrallah accused Israel of trying to drag Lebanon into another conflict. Hezbollah secretary-general’s speech was seen in Washington as a sign that the Iran-backed group is not looking for an all-out war.


5. UN Security Council Demands Houthis Stop Red Sea Shipping Attacks – Al Jazeera

Eleven members of the council voted for the measure calling on the Iran-aligned Houthis to “immediately cease all attacks, which impede global commerce and navigational rights and freedoms as well as regional peace.”

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The resolution also called for freeing the Japanese-operated Galaxy Leader seized last year. Four members – Algeria, China, Mozambique, and Russia – abstained. As permanent council members, China and Russia have vetoes but chose not to use them.


6. UK, U.S. Forces Repel ‘Largest Attack’ Yet By Yemen’s Houthis In Red Sea – AFP

U.S. and UK forces have shot down more than 20 drones and missiles over the Red Sea launched by Yemen’s Houthis, in what London branded the “largest attack” yet by the Iran-backed militia.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

7. Zelenskyy Says Western Hesitation On Aid Emboldens Putin – Al Jazeera

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that Western hesitation on aid emboldened Russia – comments he made during a visit to Lithuania as he embarked on a previously unannounced tour of three Baltic states.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

“He [Russian President Vladimir Putin] won’t finish this [war] until we all finish him together,” Zelenskyy said, adding, “Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Moldova may be next.”


8. Zelensky Gets Bad News From Poll – Newsweek

Support for President Volodymyr Zelensky in Ukraine was lower at the end of 2023 than a year earlier amid the ongoing war with Russia.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

A survey by the Kyiv International Institute for Sociology (KMIS) found that Ukrainian society still backs the country’s leadership and military. Still, support for Zelensky fell from 84 percent at the end of 2022 to 62 percent at the end of last year.


9. Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey Sign Memorandum On Black Sea Demining Operation – RFE

The initiative is meant to oversee operations to clear mines that have been floating in the Black Sea since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

10. Zelensky Says Trump Presidency Could Have ‘Strong Impact’ On War – WION

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the war could change significantly if Donald Trump was elected U.S. president in 2024.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Zelensky’s remarks came amid fears that Washington could reduce aid for the war-ravaged Ukraine.

Referring to Trump, Zelensky said, “I think he will surely have a different policy. I am not sure that the policy of the U.S. as a country towards Ukraine will change. But we have to look at it soberly.”


11. Putin Critic Navalny Says He’s In Punishment Cell At Russian Arctic Prison – Al Jazeera

Jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny says he has been isolated in a small punishment cell for an alleged minor breach at a remote prison colony north of the Arctic Circle.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Navalny was recently tracked to the IK-3 penal colony in Kharp in the Yamal-Nenets region, about 1,200 miles northeast of Moscow, after missing in early December. The “special regime” or “Polar Wolf” colony is among the harshest in Russia’s prison system, located in a place with severe winters.


12. U.S., Dozens Of Allies Condemn North Korea-Russia Weapons Transfer – UPI

“Our governments stand together in resolute opposition to arms transfers between the DPRK and Russia,” U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the foreign ministers from 47 countries and the European Union said in a joint statement.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The Biden administration has long warned that as the regime of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s stockpiles of weaponry dwindled under the weight of U.S. and international sanctions, it would turn to North Korea and Iran to replenish supplies.


13. India’s Purchases Of Discounted Russian Crude Reach 11-Month Low – WION

India continued to purchase Russian oil even after Western sanctions on Russia, making it clear that it would make decisions in its national interests.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

However, oil purchases have fallen after production cuts from OPEC+, and increased demand from China has made prices go up. As per figures from the global energy trade intelligence platform Kpler, Indian refiners purchased 1.45 million barrels of Russian oil daily last month. This is the lowest figure since last January.


14. China: Taiwan Presidential Frontrunner A ‘Severe Danger’ – AFP

China warned voters in Taiwan that an election win by the presidential frontrunner would pose a “severe danger” to cross-strait ties.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

In the lead-up to the election, polling figures have signaled that voters favor the independence-leaning candidate Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).

Taiwan’s election is closely watched by policymakers in Beijing, Washington, and beyond, as its outcome will affect future relations with an increasingly assertive China.


15. How Beijing Uses Economic Coercion To Try And Sway Taiwan’s Elections – Al Jazeera

In early 2021, China added pineapple to a list of banned imports, claiming concerns about pests and other safety issues. At the time, Taiwanese pineapple farmers sent nearly all their fruit to China in an industry worth $284m a year.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

For observers in Taiwan, the import bans had little to do with food safety or concerns about pesticides. It appeared to be another case of Beijing expressing its anger at the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which it regards as “separatist” and hell-bent on independence.


16. Taiwan Election: Pro-China Disinformation Targets Voters With Deepfakes And Manipulative Videos – WION

Experts and Taiwanese authorities have said that disinformation and TikTok videos have hit the election campaign, particularly aimed at candidates China opposes.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

Frontrunner, Lai Ching-te, received over 8.5 million views. Lai has leveled accusations against China of using “all means to interfere with this election.” Beijing has dismissed the allegations as “rumors and hype.”


17. Taiwan’s De Facto Ambassador To US Meets US House Speaker, China Angered – Reuters

Taiwan’s de facto ambassador to the United States met on Tuesday with U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson, Taiwan’s foreign ministry said on Wednesday, drawing a stern rebuke from Beijing.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The United States is Taiwan’s most important international backer and arms supplier despite the lack of formal diplomatic ties with the island, which China views as its territory.


18. US To Send Delegation After Taiwan Election – VOA

After the presidential and legislative election on Saturday in Taiwan, Washington announced it would send a “high-level unofficial delegation” after the Taiwan election.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The move is likely to provoke Chinese ire.


19. China Set To Lose Crown As Top U.S. Exporter After 17 Years – Nikkei Asia

China was likely knocked off the perch as the top exporter to the U.S. for the first time since 2006 last year, outpaced by Mexico as tensions between the world’s two largest economies reshape supply chains.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

According to U.S. Commerce Department data, American goods imports from China dropped more than 20% on the year for the January-November period. China accounted for 13.9% of total U.S. imports, the smallest share since 2004, after peaking at more than 21% around 2017.


20. China Says State-Backed Experts Crack Apple’s Airdrop – AFP

According to the Beijing municipal government, Chinese state-backed experts have found a way to identify people who use Apple’s encrypted AirDrop messaging service.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The service was widely used by participants in pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong in 2019, which China’s central government eventually quelled. Apple also limited file-sharing for Chinese iPhone users in 2022 following protests against the ruling Communist Party’s stringent zero-Covid policy.


21. Germany: Train Strike, Farmer Protests Cause Disruption – DW

Germany is facing potential transport chaos on Wednesday caused by a three-day nationwide strike by train drivers and ongoing protests by farmers angered by planned subsidy cuts.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The train strike was given the go-ahead on Tuesday after a labor court in Frankfurt rejected a temporary injunction sought by German rail operator Deutsche Bahn (DB).


22. As West Condemns Bangladesh Election, China, And Russia Embrace Dhaka – Al Jazeera

The governments of the United Kingdom and the United States criticized the election as illegitimate.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

In a statement, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said that Washington believed the voting process was “not free and fair, and we regret that not all parties participated.”


23. Swedish Alarm After Defense Chiefs’ War Warning – BBC

A warning to Swedes from two top defense officials to prepare for war has prompted concern and accusations of alarmism. Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin told a defense conference, “There could be war in Sweden.”

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

His message was backed up by military commander-in-chief Gen Micael Byden, who said all Swedes should prepare mentally for the possibility. After more than two centuries of peace, Sweden is a few steps away from joining the NATO alliance.


24. Japan Quake Stressed Nuclear Plant Beyond Design Limit: Panel – Kyodo News

Last week’s powerful earthquake in central Japan stressed parts of a local nuclear power plant that exceeded the limit anticipated in the facility’s design, according to a report shared in a safety panel meeting.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The report, discussed at a regular session of the Nuclear Regulation Authority, indicated the potentially alarming readings of ground acceleration did not appear to pose an immediate safety threat to the facility in Shika on the Noto Peninsula.


25. EU To Probe Microsoft’s $10B Investment In OpenAI – UPI

The European Commission announced it was looking into whether U.S. software giant Microsoft’s $10 billion partnership with ChatGPT maker OpenAI comes under the remit of its anti-trust powers to investigate tie-ups that could limit competition.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

British regulators launched a similar preliminary probe in December into whether Microsoft’s $10 billion investment in OpenAI over the years was, in fact, a merger that could lead to a “substantial lessening of competition.”


26. Feeling Depressed Linked To Short-Term Increase In Bodyweight, Study Finds – University Of Cambridge

Increases in symptoms of depression are associated with a subsequent increase in body weight when measured one month later, new research from the University of Cambridge has found.

Will Trump's Rising Support From Minority Voters Put Him Back Into The White House? I&I/TIPP Poll

The study found that the increase was only seen among people who were overweight or obese but found no link between generally having greater symptoms of depression and higher body weight.

“People with a high BMI are already at greater risk from other health conditions, so this could potentially lead to a further deterioration in their health. Monitoring and addressing depressive symptoms in individuals with overweight or obesity could help prevent further weight gain and be beneficial to both their mental and physical health.”


📧
We welcome readers’ letters via email.
Please email [email protected]

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights

Submit a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *