Cindy Adams, the 93-year-old gossip columnist for the New York Post, shocked her audience with a teaser piece on Jan 17: Don’t be shocked if Michelle Obama sneaks her way into the 2024 race.
Ms. Adams may have a point about the former First Lady Michelle Obama attempting to dislodge President Biden from his perch as the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party in 2024.
We smelled the possibility months ago and even conducted an I&I/TIPP poll in early January asking, “If President Biden decides not to run in 2024, who would be your top choice for the Democratic candidate?”
Kamala Harris came in first at 20%, followed by Michelle Obama at 14%, convincingly edging out Hillary Clinton, who came in at just 10%. Michelle beat Bernie Sanders, Gavin Newsom (the most-talked-about potential Biden replacement), Mayor Pete, and the two star senators from the 2020 campaign – Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar.
Kamala Harris’s first-spot finish in our poll is understandable. Though her approval ratings are terrible, she still has significant name recognition as she visits friendly media outlets and guffaws her way out of tough questions.
But Michelle Obama coming in second in our poll? Here’s a former First Lady who has been out of the White House for over seven years. She has rarely been seen in public, unlike Hillary Clinton, who launched her Senate career to take over Daniel Patrick Moynihan’s New York seat while she was still in the White House. [As a former First Lady, Clinton was elected to the Senate twice, almost beat Obama in the 2008 nomination race, then became Obama’s first Secretary of State, and followed that up by becoming the 2016 Democratic Presidential nominee before losing to Trump].
A good question for voters is: What exactly has Michelle Obama achieved that makes her worthy of the highest office in the land and a promotion to the position as leader of the free world?
Her early Wikipedia biography is impressive but by no means stellar. Michelle Obama is a graduate of Princeton University and Harvard Law School. In her early legal career, she worked at the law firm Sidley Austin, where she met her future husband. Michelle subsequently worked in nonprofits and as the associate dean of Student Services at the University of Chicago. Later, she served as vice president for Community and External Affairs at the University of Chicago Medical Center.
Her only claim to fame is that she served as First Lady. For eight years, she remained the closest friend and confidante to America’s first-ever Black president. But other former First Ladies – Nancy Reagan and Laura Bush – did the same for their husbands too, and like Michelle, they did not aspire to high office. What makes Michelle different?
Well, in the incredibly racially-sensitive echo chamber that the modern Democratic Party thrives, identity politics drives everything. Kamala Harris was chosen because she was Black, although Harris brilliantly decided to identify herself as Black and not Asian-American (her mother was Hindu Brahmin and cared for her; Harris’s father, Jamaican, is estranged from Kamala to this day). Mayor Pete won plaudits because he is openly gay. The White House Press Secretary is Black, female, and a lesbian. The top military leaders of the nation are Black. Biden’s first Supreme Court pick was Black.
In the Democratic Party, Michelle Obama is the Uber-Black personality, next only to former President Barack Obama (constitutionally barred from running for a third term), who is the only ex-president in American history to have bought a home in the Georgetown suburbs of Washington and continues to live there when not at his Martha’s Vineyard residence. Barack is rumored to be the thinker/strategist extraordinaire for Biden’s failed policies and presidency. The talk inside the Beltway is that Obama is already in his third term, so would a victorious Michelle give Barack a fourth term?
When Michelle addresses a gathering, oohs and aahs follow her every moment she is in the room. Fawning all over her are Black women and college-educated white elite women who are atoning for their sin for being born white and living a privileged life.
But how much purchase does Michelle have with Black men who have now moved in droves to Trump? Biden took 92% of the Black male vote in 2020. Current polls say that Biden’s support among Black males is around 80%. Democrats who may salivate at having Michelle on the ticket are hoping that she will not only stem this flight but bring them all home.
We predict that the Black male return will not happen. On the ground, Black men are longing for the period of glory days under Trump. Bidenflation, at 16.7%, is ripping apart lower-income Black families. With mortgage rates stuck at 7%, families are finding it extraordinarily expensive to buy their first homes. Unbridled immigration is cutting into jobs in construction and other service jobs that have traditionally been the mainstays of Black male employment. Immigration is also causing a deterioration of the quality of life in America’s inner cities, where most Blacks live.
We don’t know if Michelle is willing to get into the mud of a presidential race. Or what she stands for, other than that she is aligned with her husband’s liberal positions. In a general election campaign, if Michelle were to stake out more moderate policy positions to appeal to Independents, that would eviscerate her support on the Left. If she continues Biden’s Leftist policies, she will be doomed on the right by Trump’s ‘America First’ express, which is gaining speed as it hurtles down the primary states.
We feel that even Michelle Obama won’t be able to stop this train.
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Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Netanyahu Publicly Rejects U.S. Push For Palestinian State – BBC
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he has told the United States that he opposes the establishment of a Palestinian state once the conflict in Gaza comes to an end.
In a news conference, a defiant Mr. Netanyahu vowed to press on with the offensive in Gaza “until complete victory”: the destruction of Hamas and return of the remaining Israeli hostages, adding that it could take “many more months”.
2. EU Adopts Gaza Cease-Fire Resolution Requiring Hostage Release, Hamas Dismantling – UPI
The European Union Parliament adopted a resolution calling for a cease-fire in the Israel-Hamas war if a pair of conditions are fulfilled.
The non-binding measure demanded that all hostages be released and that Hamas be dismantled to call for a cease-fire and a return to efforts to find a political solution to the conflict.
3. No Ties With Israel Before Gaza Ceasefire, Says Saudi Ambassador At Davos – Al Arabiya
Saudi Arabia is unable to pursue talks about a landmark deal to recognize Israel until there is a ceasefire in Gaza, the Kingdom’s ambassador to the United States said.
“The [Kingdom] has been quite clear. While there is violence on the ground and the killing persists, we cannot talk about the next day” Princess Reema bint Bandar said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
4. Houthi Official Says Russian, Chinese Ships Safe From Red Sea Attacks – AFP
A senior Houthi official has promised safe passage for Russian and Chinese vessels through the Red Sea, where it has been carrying out attacks on Israel-linked commercial ships in solidarity with Gaza.
In an interview published by Russian outlet Izvestia, senior Houthi official Mohammed al-Bukhaiti insisted the waters around Yemen, which some shipping firms are avoiding due to the ongoing aggression, were safe so long as vessels were not linked to certain countries, particularly Israel.
5. Russia’s Lavrov Rejects U.S. Proposal To Resume Nuclear Arms Talks – Al Jazeera
Russia’s top diplomat has rejected a United States proposal to resume a dialogue on nuclear arms control, saying that it is impossible while Washington offers military support to Ukraine.
Speaking at a news conference, Sergey Lavrov accused the West of fuelling global security risks by encouraging Ukraine to ramp up strikes on Russian territory and warned that Moscow will achieve its goals in the conflict regardless of Western support for Kyiv.
6. Biggest NATO Drills Since Cold War To Start Next Week – Al Jazeera
NATO will launch its largest exercise since the Cold War next week with about 90,000 personnel set to take part in the months-long wargames, the alliance’s top commander General Chris Cavoli.
Cavoli said that the drills would rehearse NATO’s execution of its regional plans, the first defense plans the alliance has drawn up in decades, detailing how it would respond to a Russian attack.
7. U.S. Ambassador To Russia Visited Imprisoned Reporter Evan Gershkovich, Embassy Says – RFE/RL
U.S. Ambassador to Russia Lynne Tracy visited Evan Gershkovich, the American reporter held in Moscow on espionage charges, the U.S. Embassy in Moscow announced.
“Evan remains resilient and grateful for the support of friends, family and supporters,” the embassy said. “We continue to call for Evan’s immediate release.” Gershkovich was arrested in March 2023 in Yekaterinburg for allegedly spying, a charge he and his employer, The Wall Street Journal, vehemently deny.
8. France Denies Russian Claim Of Mercenaries In Ukraine – Al Jazeera
France has denied Russia’s claim that there were French mercenaries in Ukraine after Russia’s Ministry of Defense said its troops had killed “foreign fighters” earlier this week.
“France helps Ukraine with supplies of military material and military training, in full compliance with international law, in order to help Ukraine in its fight to defend its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity,” France’s Ministry for Foreign Affairs said. “France has no mercenaries, neither in Ukraine nor elsewhere, unlike certain others,” it added.
9. China’s Population Decline Accelerates – Infographic – tippinsights
Covid-related deaths likely accelerated China’s declining population in 2023, presenting more challenges for a government already dealing with economic deflation and a property crisis.
10. China’s Ruling Party Takes Direct Control Of Country’s Universities – RFA
The Chinese Communist Party is taking a direct role in the running of universities across the country amid ongoing mergers of embedded party committees with presidents’ offices.
While the ruling party already has branches and committees embedded in universities and other academic institutions, commentators said it has never actually merged itself with administrative structures before, not even during the political turmoil of the Cultural Revolution.
11. Chinese Drones May Pose Security Risks, U.S. Agencies Warn – RFA
Chinese-made drones could pose a national security risk to the United States due to laws in China that force companies to provide authorities access to user data, two U.S. agencies say in a new memo.
These “unmanned aircraft systems,” or UAS, are often used by operators of critical infrastructure in the United States without regard to the data they may be sending to Chinese servers, according to the memo from the FBI and the new Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency.
12. Can China Help Ease Tensions Between Pakistan And Iran? – AFP
Beijing has said it was willing to mediate tensions between Pakistan and Iran, after the two countries traded deadly airstrikes on militant targets on each other’s territory.
China is a close partner of both nations, who enjoy extensive military and economic ties with Beijing and play important roles in its geopolitical ambitions.
Straddling Central Asia and a vast territory from the Himalayas to the Arabian Gulf, Pakistan and Iran are well-positioned in Beijing’s long-term plans to reshape regional geopolitics in its own interests.
13. Northern Ireland Grinds To A Halt As 100,000 Public Workers Strike Over Pay – UPI
Northern Ireland was brought to a standstill Thursday after 100,000 public employees walked out in the country’s largest-ever strike in a long-running dispute over pay.
The coordinated action by 16 unions representing 173,000 workers saw schools and colleges close, all trains and buses stop running, snow-covered roads left unplowed, medical appointments canceled and government offices shuttered.
Public sector pay in Northern Ireland has fallen behind England, Scotland and Wales since 2021 due to high inflation, topping 11% at one point.
14. Biden Says Pakistan Strikes Show Iran Not “Well-Liked” In Region – Reuters
“As you can see Iran is not particularly well liked in the region and where that goes, we’re working on now. I don’t know where that goes,” President Joe Biden said.
The United States has been locked in a test of wills with Iran over its support for Houthi rebels in Yemen who have been launching attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
15. North Korea Conducts ‘Underwater Nuclear Weapons System’ Test – State Media – BBC
North Korea says it has carried out a test of its “underwater nuclear weapons system” in response to drills by the U.S., South Korea and Japan this week.
The test of its supposedly nuclear-armed underwater drones took place off its east coast, state media reported.
The North has claimed tests of its “Haeil-5-23” system before but the weapons have never been independently verified.
16. Brazil Ex-President Jair Bolsonaro’s Covid Vaccination Records False: Probe – Reuters
The vaccination records of Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro are false, the country’s comptroller general’s office said after an investigation regarding the alleged tampering of information on his COVID-19 vaccination card.
The records show that Mr Bolsonaro, a COVID-19 skeptic who publicly opposed the vaccine, received a dose of the immunizer in July 2021. Bolsonaro has previously denied having knowledge of or ordering false information to be inserted into his vaccination records.
17. The Drop In Panama Canal Traffic Due To A Severe Drought Could Cost Up To $700 Million – A.P.
A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes.
The new cuts announced Wednesday by authorities in Panama are set to deal an even greater economic blow than previously expected. Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez estimates that dipping water levels could cost them between $500 million and $700 million in 2024, compared to previous estimates of $200 million.
18. Marijuana Use Linked To Impaired Driving Among Seniors – UPI Health
In a driving-simulator experiment, seniors who were long-term marijuana smokers were weaving in and out of their lanes 30 minutes after getting high, Canadian researchers report.
The effect was not seen when the same drivers were tested again three hours after smoking weed. However, the seniors themselves still rated their ability to drive as “impaired.”
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