Visionless!

After being a globe-trotter for over a year, shaming the world’s nations to support Ukraine or else, President Zelensky of Ukraine arrived this week in Davos, Switzerland, to talk peace.

“We need peace in the world,” he said. “Peace in Ukraine means peace in Europe. It means peace in the world.”

It was a remarkable turnaround for a leader who, just in December, was pressuring the White House and reluctant Members of Congress to pass a $61 billion weapons package. That request has stalled as the GOP House Speaker has refused to take the proposal up unless it is paired with securing America’s southern border, which the Biden administration is loath to do.

With former President Trump routing his rivals in Iowa, winning 98 out of 99 counties and earning a majority of the caucus vote, Ukraine’s chances of eliciting further American support to fight a proxy war are perilous. Trump has consistently opposed getting involved in the conflict. With Vivek Ramaswamy, the fourth-place finisher in Iowa, joining hands with Trump, the ‘America First’ voice only got louder. Florida Gov. DeSantis also opposes funding Ukraine, with Nikki Haley the lone holdout.

The war started on February 24, 2022, when Russia attacked Ukraine. At that time, Russia controlled about 16,217 sq miles of Ukraine from prior incursions going back to Moscow’s Crimean invasion in 2014, amounting to 7.1% of Ukraine’s territory, according to the CIA Factbook. Ukraine has not reclaimed any of this land to date.

By early March 2022, Russian aggression went seamlessly to within striking distance of Kyiv when the brave Ukrainians fought back with whatever weapons they had. The Russian attack force was paltry, and it quickly withdrew, giving Ukraine hope that if armed and trained, Ukraine could prevail.

However, arms were delayed as a focused international strategy was not in place. America led the effort with Europe in tow, but by the time all the nations had a plan, it was already summer. By August 9, 2022, Russia had taken nearly 54,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory in the East. The French-based AFP released a fascinating YouTube video animating the land area exchanged between the two fighting nations from Russia’s initial advance to July 3, 2023, roughly 500 days later.

Ukraine began to take significant swathes of territory back in the fall of 2022, but in the winter and spring of 2023, Russian forces dug in with multi-layered defenses using mines and other World War II battle techniques. The famed counter-offensive from Ukraine started in June 2023 but sputtered. By August, it was clear that Ukraine could not break Russia’s land bridge by advancing to the Sea of Azov. With another winter approaching, the fighting returned to a stalemate, where it is today.

The average American’s support for Ukraine was high during Russia’s initial invasion. But they grew skeptical as the Biden administration’s goalposts moved with an “as-long-as-it-takes” war. Biden never asked for Congressional approval. No one defined what victory meant: ousting Russia from territory it has acquired since February 24, 2022? Regime change in Russia? Testing out American weapons on the battlefield in preparation for a future war with China? Building up the American Military Industrial Complex? Creating well-paying jobs in American states?

According to the Harvard Kennedy School’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card of December 2023, Russia currently occupies 25,000 square miles, about 20% of Ukraine, nearly 9,000 square miles more than before the Feb 2022 invasion. [At the war’s peak, Russia had occupied almost 54,000 square miles, but Ukraine won 29,000 square miles back]. American taxpayers have sent $110 billion in weapons and logistical support to help Ukraine – yet the report card shows that Ukraine has lost nearly 13% more territory than it had when Russia first invaded. The hard truth is that Russia prevailed, and Ukraine and the West lost.

Most reasonable people would conclude that this conflict was also a huge loss for America’s international prestige as gauged by our Standing In The World Index. America led Europe and the G7 nations by employing every resource at its disposal, including applying intense diplomatic pressure that even caused rifts with the countries of the Global South and passing more than 2,500 financial sanctions on Russia, many of which were routinely violated.

Zelensky’s visionless peace plan still doesn’t offer any concessions, something one would expect a losing party to include. According to the New York Times, the plan calls for a complete Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea, payment of reparations, prosecution of war crimes, and stepped-up sanctions against Russia. Since when has the losing party been entitled to ask for everything back and more from the victor?

It is another example of Zelensky’s arrogant leadership, which caused the world to endure a needless conflict, brought us perilously close to nuclear armageddon, and failed to pursue peace early on, like in March 2022, when he was in a far better position to negotiate. Credit the Biden and Britain’s Boris Johnson administration for misleading Zelensky and grossly miscalculating President Putin’s tenacity.

Americans see Biden’s “as-long-as-it-takes” approach as not a strategy. Most think Biden has not done enough to end the war, with 48% dissatisfied with Biden’s efforts to find a settlement. That includes 20% of Democrats, 75% of Republicans, and 65% of independents.

On his report card, nearly half (45%) give him a D or F for handling the war. Only 28% see Biden in a positive light on this issue. Dissatisfaction runs high among Republicans (74%) and independents (50%), while 54% of Democrats are satisfied.

We know that Russia will not agree to any of Zelensky’s proposals – and Russian approval, as the other warring party, is crucial. If anything, Russia would ask for security guarantees that Ukraine would remain neutral and not be aligned with NATO. If Russia’s demand sounds familiar, it is. The West’s failure to address this Russian grievance resulted in Russia’s invasion in Feb 2022. In short, peace is nowhere on the horizon.

Even if a cease-fire agreement is reached, rebuilding Ukraine will remain costly, possibly requiring nearly $1 trillion. With America already in debt to the tune of $34 trillion, there will be little appetite for that. Credit the Biden administration and Washington NeoCons again for bringing us this totally avoidable mess.

1. Key Israeli War Leader Challenges Netanyahu Over Gaza Strategy – BBC

Gadi Eisenkot, a key member of Israel’s war cabinet, has accused Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of not telling the truth about the military goals in Gaza.

Mr. Netanyahu has publicly rejected the U.S. push for a future Palestinian state and insisted the offensive would continue “until complete victory.” But Eisenkot said those advocating “absolute defeat” of Hamas were not “speaking the truth.”

He also said Mr. Netanyahu shared “sharp and clear responsibility” for failing to protect his country on 7 October and urged fresh elections, saying there was “no trust” in Israel’s current leadership.

2. Biden Says Netanyahu Not Opposed To All Two-State Solutions For Palestinians – Reuters

President Biden said he spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu about possible solutions for the creation of an independent Palestinian state, suggesting one path could involve a non-militarized government.

Biden’s call with Netanyahu was the first in nearly a month, the White House said.

White House spokesperson John Kirby denied it came in response to Netanyahu’s comment saying he objected to Palestinian statehood that did not guarantee Israel’s security.

3. Hezbollah Warns Israel Over Gaza War Escalation – AFP

A top official from Lebanon’s Iran-backed militant group warned Israel would “receive a real slap in the face” if it expanded the conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border.

“The enemy must know the party is ready, that we are preparing based on the principle that an endless aggression can happen, just like our will to push back the aggression is infinite,” Hezbollah’s number two, Naim Qassem, said in a statement.

4. Russia Says West To Decide When War Ends – D.W.

Russia’s foreign minister Sergei Lavrov says he believes only the West can decide when the war in Ukraine ends, given its support for Kyiv.

He also said Moscow would not entertain the idea of Ukraine ever joining NATO as a condition of peace. Meanwhile, the United States believes Russia could attempt to influence upcoming elections in Europe to shift sentiments against Ukraine.

5. Ukrainian Drone Strike Torches Oil Storage Depot In Southern Russia – UPI

Ukraine struck deep inside Russian territory, targeting the country’s energy infrastructure for the second day in a row with a drone strike that set an oil depot ablaze in the Bryansk region in the Southeast.

Russian officials blamed Ukraine for the attack near the town of Klintsy 60 miles from the Russia-Ukraine border, with domestic media reporting fires in four oil tanks initially affected had spread, engulfing a 10,000 square-foot area, but no injuries.

6. Zelenskyy Invites Trump To Kyiv If He Can ‘Stop The War During 24 Hours’ – A.P.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy invited Former U.S. President Donald Trump to visit Kyiv following his assertion that the former president could stop the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours if re-elected.

Zelenskyy said, “Donald Trump, I invite you to Ukraine, to Kyiv. So, if you can stop the war in 24 hours, I think it will be enough to come.” Ukraine’s two largest cities on Tuesday came under Russian hypersonic ballistic missile attacks.

7. West Must Be Prepared For War With Russia, NATO Official Warns Ahead Of Major Military Drills – RFE/RL

NATO has warned that the West should step up preparations for the unexpected, including a war with Russia, as Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is nearing the two-year mark.

“We have to realize it’s not a given that we are in peace. And that’s why we [NATO forces] are preparing for a conflict with Russia,” Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the NATO military committee chief, said in Brussels ahead of the start of the alliance’s largest exercise since the end of the Cold War.

8. Microsoft Says Russian Hackers Stole Senior Executives’ Emails – Reuters

The Russian group was able to access “a very small percentage” of Microsoft corporate email accounts, including members of its senior leadership team and employees in its cybersecurity, legal, and other functions, said Microsoft.

A Russian hacking group known in the cybersecurity industry as Nobelium, or Midnight Blizzard, used a “password spray attack” starting in Nov. 2023 to breach a Microsoft platform, the company said in a blog.

9. Putin Takes Dip In Icy Waters. Here’s Why – WION

Russian President Vladimir Putin observed the Orthodox feast of Epiphany by immersing himself in frigid waters, a ritual performed in the early hours of January 19, media reports said, citing Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

Authorities have established designated bathing sites for believers throughout Russia, even in Siberian regions where temperatures plummeted to below -22°F. In adherence to Orthodox tradition, water blessed by a priest during Epiphany week is considered sacred and imbued with healing properties. Epiphany, celebrated on January 19, marks the Baptism of the Lord.

10. Bill To Reduce U.S. Dependence On Chinese Minerals Introduced In Congress – WION

A bipartisan group of U.S. senators introduced legislation, reportedly called the Critical Minerals Security Act of 2024, in the U.S. Congress seeking to boost the country’s acquisition of critical minerals and keep an eye on other countries ‘of concern.’

The legislation also aims to address “information gaps” and establish a divestment process for American companies, reported South China Morning Post (SCMP).

11. Purges In China’s Military Allow Taiwan Some Respite – For Now – Al Jazeera

Turmoil in China’s senior ranks raises questions about morale and whether the chaos reduces the threat to Taiwan.

At the end of December, nine high-ranking military officers were removed from their positions. Several of those axed were from the Chinese military’s elite “rocket force,” which oversees China’s tactical and nuclear missiles.

“The removal of senior officers demonstrates that Xi Jinping is not confident in the military, and that reduces the likelihood of a Chinese attack on Taiwan in the near term,” Christina Chen, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research (INDSR) think tank says.

12. Germany’s Parliament Approves Easing Citizenship Laws – Al Jazeera

German lawmakers have approved legislation to ease the rules on gaining citizenship and end a ban on holding dual citizenship.

The bill, put forward by center-left Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s socially liberal coalition, will allow people to become eligible for citizenship after five years in Germany or three in case of “special integration accomplishments” rather than the eight or six years at present.

13. Pakistan Tells Iran It Wants To Build Trust After Tit-For-Tat Strikes – Reuters

Pakistan expressed its willingness to work with Iran on “all issues” in a call between their foreign ministers after both countries exchanged drone and missile strikes on militant bases on each other’s territory.

The tit-for-tat strikes by the two countries are the highest-profile cross-border intrusions in recent years and have raised alarm about wider instability in the Middle East since the Israel – Hamas war.

14. U.S. Calls On North Korea To Refrain From ‘Provocative’ Actions And To Return To Dialogue- Yonhap

The response from the State Department spokesperson came after Pyongyang claimed to have tested an underwater nuclear weapons system under development.

The North’s defense ministry said the country conducted an “important” test of the Haeil-5-23 system, denouncing this week’s naval drills between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan as “reckless confrontation hysteria,” according to the Korean Central News Agency.

15. Japan’s Lunar Craft Lands Successfully – Infographics – tippinsights

Japan has become the fifth country to put a spacecraft on the lunar surface, but the “Moon Sniper” is not generating solar power, the country’s space agency JAXA says.

16. U.S. ‘Deeply Concerned’ After Recent Kyrgyzstan Raid Of Independent News Outlets – UPI

The U.S. State Department expressed concern over press freedoms in Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs opened a criminal case against unspecified publications that called for “active disobedience” against government officials and for “mass riots,” as well as “violence against citizens.”

By Kyrgyzstan law, propaganda of war is punishable by a fine or up to five years in prison, and calling for mass unrest could lead to five to eight years in prison.

17. Human Rights Advocates Worried Over Treatment Of Afghan Women Detained By Taliban – RFE/RL

Heather Barr, associate women’s rights director at Human Rights Watch (HRW), says the women detained by Afghanistan’s hard-line Islamist rulers are facing inappropriate treatment in prisons.

Since its return to power in August 2021, the Taliban has banned women from education, employment, and public life, with few exceptions, and since the beginning of this year, has arrested scores of women for allegedly violating its Islamic dress code.

18. Losing Weight To Control Diabetes Also Cuts Risks For Heart Kidney Diseases – UPI Health

Substantial weight loss that led to even a short-lived remission in Type 2 diabetes also prompted a 40% lower rate of heart disease and a 33% lower rate of kidney disease, researchers report in the journal Diabetologia.

About 18% of patients randomly assigned to an intensive diet and lifestyle plan wound up controlling their diabetes to the point they needed no medication and had normal blood sugar levels.

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights