- President Biden shows ‘significant’ vulnerability in 18 critical demographic groups based on the TIPP Presidential Leadership Index
- Only five demographic groups had shown ‘significant’ vulnerability in November 2023
- RELATED: Biden’s Lackluster Report Card — An Albatross For Reelection
Using the TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, we presented our momentum analysis for 36 demographic groups in November 2023. This month, we repeated the same analysis to discover that President Biden’s negative momentum has extended to a much broader range of demographic segments.
To our shock, President Biden is now vulnerable among 31 groups compared to 21 in November. We categorize four levels of vulnerability: significant, considerable, moderate, and mild. The number of demographic groups experiencing “significant” vulnerability has sharply increased from five in November to 18 this month.

Presidential Leadership Index
Here’s what the TIPP Presidential Leadership Index is based on.
Two decades ago, we developed the Presidential Leadership Index, an innovative metric considering favorability, job approval, and Presidential Leadership of the sitting/current President.
We compute the favorability component based on the survey question, “Overall, is your opinion of the President generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
The basis for the index’s job approval component is the question: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”
The question, “How would you describe the leadership that Joe Biden is providing for the country?” forms the basis for the leadership component.
The Presidential Leadership Index is the average of its three components. For the index and its components, a reading above 50.0 signals optimism, and below 50.0 indicates pessimism.

Negative Momentum
We define negative momentum as follows. First, for each demographic, we compute four averages of the Presidential Leadership Index:
- 37-month average for Biden’s presidency (February 2021 to February 2024)
- 12-month average (March 2023 to February 2024)
- 6-month average (September 2023 to February 2024)
- 3-month average (December 2023 to February 2024)
We compare the long-term 37-month average and the short-term three-month average. Negative momentum is defined as a decrease in the three-month average compared to the 37-month average.
To ensure a clear indication of negative momentum and to err on the conservative side, we want to see gradual degradation over the period—a “stair-step pattern” where the 12-month average is lower than the 37-month average, the six-month average is lower than the 12-month average, and the three-month average is lower than the six-month average.
Take, for example, Biden’s overall approval:
- 47.9 – 37-month average for Biden’s presidency (February 2021 to February 2024)
- 42.9 – 12-month average (March 2023 to February 2024)
- 40.4 – 6-month average (September 2023 to February 2024)
- 38.7 – 3-month average (December 2023 to February 2024)
Notice that the data follows a staircase pattern. The 12-month average of 42.9 is less than the 37-month long-term average of 47.9. Furthermore, the most recent six-month average of 40.4 is lower than the 12-month average of 42.9, indicating that Americans viewed Biden’s leadership less favorably in the past six months than in the past 12 months. Additionally, his recent three-month average of 38.7 falls below the six-month average of 40.4.
We compute negative momentum as the percentage decline from the 37-month long-term average of 47.9 to his most recent three-month average of 38.7, representing a 19.2% decline.

We performed the analysis for 36 demographic groups. Thirty-one of the 36 followed the staircase pattern. The chart below shows the 31 groups sorted from high to low by negative momentum score.

Notably, no single group had a higher short-term average than its long-term average. Five groups failed to have a staircase pattern and are designated “Failed pattern” even though they have double-digit negative momentum scores.
- $50K-75K (18.9%)
- Under $30K (14.0%)
- Black (12.9%)
- South (11.7%)
- Age 45-64 (11.7%)
In November, 15 groups did not have the staircase pattern, compared to five this month.
Based on the negative momentum scores, we grouped the demographic categories into three groups:
- Significant negative momentum (score 20% or more)
- Considerable negative momentum (score in the 15% to 20% range)
- Moderate negative momentum (score in the 10% to 15% bracket)
- Mild (under 10%)
Significant Negative Momentum
President Biden faces significant negative momentum among 18 groups. Within the parenthesis is our measure of negative momentum, the drop in the short-term three-month average compared to the long-term 37-month average.
Statistically speaking, these groups present a significant challenge for reelection. To win reelection, President Biden must address their concerns. For example, the top five concerns of the age 18-24 segment are the Economy (33%), Gun violence/Gun control (27%), Abortion (21%), Homelessness (21%), and Home affordability (19%).
We have intentionally included conservatives and Republicans for completeness in our analysis despite their unlikely support for Biden.
- Age 18-24 (28%)
- Northeast (26%)
- White men (26%)
- Age 25-44 (26%)
- Conservative (25%)
- Married women (25%)
- Moderate (24%)
- Income $30K-$50K (24%)
- White (23%)
- West (22%)
- Republicans (22%)
- Income 75K+ (22%)
- Non-investors (21%)
- High School (21%)
- Midwest (21%)
- White women (21%)
- Ind./Other (20%)
- Female (20%)
The two charts below present these 18 vulnerable groups, their four averages, and the negative momentum score.


We recently highlighted the disillusionment among the younger age group in our editorial: 18-24-Year-Olds Could Swing 2024 To Trump. Low-income (under $30K) Americans have struggled to cope with the 17% Bidenflation.
Considerable Negative Momentum
President Biden faces considerable negative momentum among the following nine demographic groups. They all follow the staircase pattern; the negative momentum score is between 15% and 20%.
- Suburban (19%)
- Rural (19%)
- College Degree or more (19%)
- Hispanic (18%)
- Male (18%)
- Single women (18%)
- Some College (16%)
- Urban (15%)
- Black/Hispanic (15%)

Moderate Negative Momentum
President Biden faces moderate negative momentum among the following three demographic groups. They follow the staircase pattern; the negative momentum score is 10% to 15%. The three groups are:
- Investors (14.7%)
- Age 65+ (12%)
- Liberal (11%)

Mild Negative Momentum
The only group under this category is Democrats, with a negative momentum score of 7.7%. Their 37-month average is 79.9, 12-month 76.4, 6-month 75.9, and 3-months 73.7.
State Of The Race
In the recent I&I/TIPP Poll, Trump led by two points within the poll’s margin of error, as noted in the RealClearPolitics dashboard below. Notice that Trump leads in nine polls, Biden two, and one is tied.

Our momentum analysis shows that Biden’s standing among Americans has weakened significantly in the past three months. He faces headwinds among a broad spectrum of Americans. If Biden is the Democratic Party’s candidate, the incumbency does not work to his advantage, and the chances of returning to the White House look slim at best.

TIPP Presidential Leadership Index
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Netanyahu Rejects UN Pleas And Says Israeli Forces Will Enter Rafah – Middle East Eye
Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said that the country’s military would expand its Gaza offensive into Rafah, despite the United Nations warning it would be catastrophic for the more than one million Palestinians who have sought shelter there.

The U.S., the main military and financial backer of Israel and its war on Gaza, has cautioned Israel against launching a large-scale offensive into Rafah, a previously declared “safe zone.”
2. Netanyahu Orders Military To Plan Evacuations From Rafah – BBC
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ordered the military to prepare to evacuate civilians from the southern Gazan city of Rafah ahead of an expanded offensive against Hamas.

Some 1.5 million Palestinians are in Rafah to seek refuge from Israeli combat operations in the rest of Gaza. The U.S. has warned Israel an invasion of Rafah would be a “disaster,” while the EU and the UN both expressed concern. Aid groups say it is not possible to evacuate everyone from the city.
3. Biden Says Israel’s Response In Gaza ‘Over The Top,’ Seeks Pause In Fighting – Reuters
“I’m of the view, as you know, that the conduct of the response in the Gaza Strip has been over the top,” Biden told reporters at the White House.

Biden’s remarks are some of his sharpest public criticism to date of Netanyahu’s government and follow increasing domestic pressure to convince Israel to stop its attacks.
Biden also said he has been pushing for a deal to normalize Saudi Arabia-Israel relations, increased humanitarian aid for Palestinian civilians, and a temporary pause in fighting to allow the release of hostages taken by Hamas.
4. Moody’s Downgrades Israel’s Credit Rating, Changes Outlook To Negative – Al Arabiya
U.S.-based credit rating agency Moody’s downgraded Israel and changed the country’s rating to A2 from A1, concluding a review that began on Oct. 19, almost two weeks after the Hamas attack on Israel.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government has shown no signs of looking to end the military campaign in Gaza. Moody’s also highlighted that there was no agreement in the pipeline to fully restore and eventually strengthen security for Israel.
5. Ukraine’s New Army Chief Signals Tougher Approach As Predecessor Gets Top Honour – Euronews
Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi signaled that he plans to take a tougher approach than his predecessor following a major shake-up of the country’s military leadership to reignite momentum in the deadlocked war with Russia.

Syrskyi said his immediate goals are to improve the troop rotation at the front lines and harness the power of new technology. “New tasks are on the agenda,” Syrskyi said.
Syrskyi’s predecessor, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, was meanwhile awarded the country’s highest honor, the Golden Star Award from Zelenskyy, during a ceremony in Kyiv.
6. Biden Calls Holdup Of Ukraine Aid ‘Close To Criminal Neglect’ – A.P.
President Joe Biden said that a Republican hold on sending new U.S. aid to Ukraine for its war with Russia was “close to criminal neglect.”

Biden commented as he met with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to discuss U.S. and European efforts to maintain support for Kyiv. Scholz said that Ukraine would not have had a chance to defend itself without the support of the United States and European allies.
7. NATO Chief Calls On Europe To Ramp Up Arms Productions – Reuters
Ahead of a key meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, NATO’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg insisted that “we need to reconstitute and expand our industrial base faster, to increase deliveries to Ukraine and refill our own stocks.”

“This means shifting from slow peacetime to high-tempo conflict production,” he told the German Sunday daily Welt am Sonntag. Stoltenberg’s comments came amidst growing pleas for shells, ammunition, and other military aid from Ukraine as it battles Russian forces into a third year.
8. Finland Announces New Military Aid Package For Ukraine Worth $205 Million – RFE/RL
The fresh package, the 22nd since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will bring the total defense aid given to Kyiv by Finland to 1.8 billion euros ($1.94 billion).

It added that for security reasons, the exact content of the assistance package, the method, and the terms of its provision have not been made public.
9. U.S. Lawmakers Accuse VC Firms Of Funding Chinese Military-Linked Firms – Reuters
Sequoia Capital China, Qualcomm Ventures, and three other venture capital firms plowed at least $3 billion into Chinese tech companies that support Beijing’s military and its repression of minorities in Xinjiang, a U.S. congressional report alleged.

The Committee called on the Biden administration to restrict U.S. investment in Chinese firms sanctioned by the U.S. government. It urged it to bolster recent U.S. curbs on U.S. investment in China to include more sectors.
10. Taiwan Identifies Eight Chinese Balloons – D.W.
Eight Chinese balloons were spotted around Taiwan on Friday, the highest number since the country started recording sightings in December.

The new balloon sightings came after Taiwan held a presidential election, which was won by the ruling Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, who Beijing regards as a “separatist.” China warned ahead of the January 13 vote that if Lai won, it would bring “war and decline” to Taiwan.
11. Chinese Firm Helps Websites Push Pro-Beijing Content: Research – RFA
According to a recent study, a Chinese company in Shenzhen has assisted at least 123 websites operating in China but posing as local media outlets in 30 countries across Europe, Asia, and Latin America to disseminate disinformation.

The research lab at the University of Toronto found that Shenzhen Haimaiyunxiang Media Co. (Haimai), a public relations firm, was behind the push to promote pro-Beijing business and political “propaganda.”
12. ‘America First’ Group Works To Ban Chinese Farmland Ownership At State Level – Nikkei Asia
The America First Policy Institute, a think tank inspired by former President Donald Trump, is working to enact U.S. state laws to ban foreign ownership – especially Chinese ownership – of agricultural land.

Adam Savit, director of the China Policy Initiative at AFPI, told Nikkei Asia in an interview that the game plan is to share model legislation among states to ensure smooth passage of the bills.
A biotech company, Syngenta, recently was ordered to sell farmland in Arkansas as concerns mount over foreign ownership of agricultural land.
13. Iraq’s Iran-Backed Militias To Resume Attacks On U.S. Troops In Region: Statement – Al Arabiya
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq suggested they would resume attacks on U.S. troops in the country and across the region in a statement released Friday.

The statement said that the U.S. violated so-called rules of engagement when it killed the Katai’ib Hezbollah commander. “The occupying enemy forces… only understand the language of weapons,” the Islamic Resistance quipped.
They said “painful strikes” and “wide-ranging attacks” would be carried out in their efforts to push out U.S. troops from Iraq.
14. North Korea To ‘Put An End’ To South If Attacked – AFP
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has vowed Pyongyang would not hesitate to “put an end” to South Korea if attacked as relations between the neighbors hit new lows, state media said.

North Korea this year has declared South Korea its “principal enemy,” closed agencies dedicated to reunification and outreach, and threatened war over “even 0.001 millimeters” of territorial infringement. Kim said:
Peace is not something to beg for or exchange through negotiations.
15. Russians Enter North Korea As First Post-COVID Tourists – D.W.
On Friday, almost 100 Russian tourists arrived at Pyongyang International Airport in North Korea. They were the first tourists allowed into North Korea since it closed its doors during the coronavirus pandemic.

The group arrives as Moscow and Pyongyang pledge to bolster economic and military cooperation.
16. COVID Patients Again Rising In Japan, Experts Warn Of 10th Wave – Kyodo News
The average number of coronavirus patients among designated hospitals across Japan has been rising for 11 consecutive weeks, health ministry data showed, with experts warning the country has entered its 10th COVID-19 wave.

The average among the roughly 5,000 medical institutions stood at 16.15 in the week through last Sunday, with the total number of patients they reported up 8 percent from the previous week to 79,605, the data showed.
17. Pakistan: Elections Fail To End Political Instability – D.W.
The February 8 elections have failed to end the political turmoil that has plagued Pakistan for almost two years.

No political party has emerged as a clear winner in polls that were marred by allegations of vote rigging and sporadic violence. In the coming days and weeks, the Muslim-majority South Asian country will see intense political negotiations for a coalition government.
18. U.S., EU, UK Express Concern Over Irregularities In Pakistan Elections, Urge For Probe – WION
The United States, the European Union, and Britain separately expressed concerns over Pakistan’s electoral process in the wake of voting, which took place on Feb 8 and appealed for an investigation into reported irregularities.

The election results remain indecisive as former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s party and ex-prime minister Imran Khan declared victory.
19. Engaging With Music May Boost Mental Physical Health Of Older Adults – UPI Health
According to results from the latest University of Michigan National Poll on Healthy Aging, virtually all people between the ages of 50 and 80 (98%) say they benefit in at least one health-related way from engaging with music.

Three-quarters said music helps them relieve stress or relax, 65% said it helps their mental health and mood, and about 60% said they get energized or motivated by music.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights