When wily Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell predicted in November that the Senate would ultimately pass a Ukraine aid bill, we never doubted the outcome. Being skilled parliamentarians who know all the buttons to push, they engineered a win for the Military Industrial Complex by passing a $95 billion bill on Superbowl Sunday.
Thankfully, the Constitution designed Congress to have two chambers, and the People’s House of Representatives has to agree to every word and punctuation mark in the Senate bill for it to become law. And this is only if the House even takes it up.
We have argued for more than 18 months now that America should exploit every arm of diplomacy to bring an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, which was needlessly launched by Vladimir Putin, no matter what his grievances were. After America’s disastrous military campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan, we have learned that foreign wars, even when there are no American boots on the ground, are counterproductive to the pressing humanitarian problems the world faces.
During the peak of the Russia-Ukraine war, President Biden came perilously close to driving us to World War III. Famine became a persistent problem in African countries as both Ukraine and Russia, giants in agriculture with their fertile bread basket farming economies, couldn’t export their produce to countries in need. Europe’s decision to punish Russia by banning oil imports ended up punishing itself as energy prices soared. Mittelstand companies in Germany’s Ruhr valley had to shut down. Germany is still in a recession.
Seven million refugees from Ukraine have resettled across Europe, the largest migration since World War II. Ukraine has run out of soldiers, with the average age now being over 42 years. Global South countries have refused to join America in condemning Russia and have teamed up against the West.
The much-hyped summer counteroffensive gained virtually no new territory for Ukraine. According to the Harvard Kennedy School’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card in December 2023, Russia occupies 25,000 square miles, about 20% of Ukraine, nearly 9,000 square miles more than before the Feb 2022 invasion. American taxpayers have sent $110 billion in weapons and logistical support to help Ukraine – yet the report card shows that Ukraine has lost nearly 13% more territory than it had when Russia first invaded. The hard truth is that Russia prevailed, and Ukraine and the West lost.
The United States Senate voted 70-29 to ignore all of the above points and fund Ukraine militarily when President Zelensky himself, probably modern history’s most celebrated defender of a country, floated the idea of peace talks, albeit on his terms. Speaking after the vote, Schumer said:
If we want the world to remain a safe place for freedom, for democratic principles, for our future prosperity, then America must lead the way — and with this bill, the Senate declares that American leadership will not waver, will not falter, will not fail.
Some senators voted for the bill because the money would be spent in their home districts to rebuild America’s weapons inventory. Others voted their conscience by saying that Putin’s aggression should and must be punished. Still others unbelievably insisted that if America did not stop Putin, he would next attack a NATO country—a far stretch from the truth. [Putin has never said he would strike a NATO country. In his interview with Tucker Carlson, he said he floated the idea of becoming part of NATO but was rebuffed by the West. Besides, Russia is too weak to engage with NATO – it has barely been able to hold ground against an inferior fighting force in Ukraine.]
Charity begins at home. The Senate’s flawed justifications aside, America is the most indebted nation in the world, with a debt load of $34 trillion. Wars since 9/11 have cost over $8 trillion, mostly financed with borrowed money. Our borders are so wide open that the latest defeated Senate bill authorized the Department of Homeland Security to act only if there were more than 5,000 daily encounters with illegal migrants, essentially agreeing to accept 1.8 million illegal immigrants annually, no questions asked. This is no way to run the country. Sorry, Sen. Schumer, your definition of leadership is highly questionable.
Meanwhile, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) condescendingly declared:
Our base cannot possibly know what’s at stake at the level that any well-briefed U.S. senator should know about what’s at stake if Putin wins.
Senator Tillis, you’re wrong. Stop talking down on Americans. They have eyes and ears and are smart enough to recognize that President Biden does not have a clear vision, and his ‘as-long-as-it-takes’ approach lacks a strategy for ending the war.
When is enough, enough? Biden’s absence of vision would ensure that the war persists in Ukraine at least until January 2025. If he is reelected, God knows when.
The House GOP has a moral responsibility to kill the Senate bill when it arrives at its chamber by not even taking it up, Speaker Johnson’s prerogative. The GOP’s margin is razor thin, which is why liberals are now proposing that the House should consider a “discharge petition.” During emergencies – and in the Left’s minds, aid to Ukraine is a United States national emergency – a majority of members from both parties can table a motion to overrule the Speaker’s objections and bring a bill to a vote on the House floor.
First, if any GOP members were to do this, they would face a revolt from their voters back home. Second, several Democrats opposed to the bill’s Israeli aid package may defect, neutralizing any GOP defections. [In the Senate, Jeff Merkley of Oregon joined Senator Bernie Sanders to vote No].
Third, even if a House vote is forced, nothing prevents Speaker Johnson from attaching the border bill already passed in the House to the Senate bill. Indeed, he released a statement after the Senate vote to show that he is following the debate closely:
In the absence of having received any single border policy change from the Senate, the House will have to continue to work its own will on these important matters.
H.R.2’s provisions require finishing building a border wall, ending catch and release, ending the abuse of parole authority, reforming the broken asylum system, and restarting Remain in Mexico – all of which are anathema to most Democrats and amount to poison pills. The Senate would never approve of these proposals, having previously voted against Sen. Ted Cruz’s amendment when he attached the House border provisions during an earlier vote.
America now looks to Speaker Johnson for leadership. Let us hope he delivers and helps bring the war to a peaceful conclusion.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. CIA, Mossad Chiefs, Qatar PM Meet Egyptian Officials
To Discuss Truce In Gaza – AFP
CIA director William Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea, and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani met Egyptian officials in Cairo “to discuss a truce in Gaza,” Egyptian media reported.
A Hamas official told AFP on condition of anonymity:
Hamas and the (other militant) factions are awaiting the outcome of the Cairo meetings, and Hamas is open to discussing any initiative that achieves an end to aggression and war
2. Israel Army Shows Video It Claims Is Of Hamas Gaza
Chief Sinwar Escaping Via Tunnel – AFP
“During a special unit’s operations… a video was discovered in a tunnel from a security camera installed there. The footage shows the leader of Hamas and mass murderer Yahya Sinwar, fleeing with his children and one of his wives,” army spokesman Daniel Hagari said at a briefing.
Hagari said the video had been filmed on October 10, three days after Hamas attacked Israel. Israel accuses Sinwar of masterminding the October 7 attack that triggered the war.
3. Countries Halting Weapons Support To Israel As It Continues To Pound Gaza – Al Arabiya
Italy, Netherlands, Japan, Spain, and Belgium are among several
nations that have hit the pause button on weapons exports to Israel in the wake of the latter’s ongoing military operation in Gaza.
This comes after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel could be committing genocide.
The U.S., UK, Canada, and Germany continue to supply arms to Israel despite mounting pressure from human rights groups. The U.S. has provided virtually unconditional support and weapons to Israel, including $3.8 billion a year.
4. Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Urges Residents To Stop Using Internet During Israel Battle – Al Arabiya
Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah called on residents near Lebanon’s
border with Israel to sacrifice using the internet for an undetermined period as Israeli strikes take a heavy toll on the group’s fighters and civilians along the Blue Line.
“Your phone is their agent,” Nasrallah said in a televised speech to discuss the Gaza war and international efforts to halt cross-border clashes between the Iran-backed group and Israel.
5. U.S. Rejects Putin’s Suggestion Of Ukraine Ceasefire: Sources – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s suggestion of a ceasefire in
Ukraine to freeze the war was rejected by the U.S. after contacts between intermediaries, Russian sources said.
Putin sent signals to Washington in 2023 in public and privately through intermediaries, including through Moscow’s Arab partners in the Middle East and others, that he was ready to consider a ceasefire in Ukraine, the Russian sources said.
6. Vladimir Putin “Would Be Assassinated” If He Backs Out Of Ukraine: Elon Musk – Bloomberg
Elon Musk told U.S. Republican senators “there is no way in hell” that Russian President Vladimir Putin could lose the war on Ukraine, weighing in on a conflict-affected by Musk’s Starlink satellite services.
Musk said there was pressure on Putin to see the fight through. “If he were to back off, he would be assassinated,” Musk said.
7. Blinken Says He Spoke With Paul Whelan, U.S. Citizen
Being Held By Russia – Reuters
Secretary of State Antony Blinken told a forum on hostage diplomacy that U.S. efforts to bring home Whelan and Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, who Russia is also holding, continued every day.
He gave no details about the call with Whelan, who was convicted of spying in 2020 and jailed for 16 years.
8. Russia’s Gazprom Awarded Iraq’s Huge Nasiriyah Oil
Development – Oilprice.Com
Russian gas giant Gazprom has been awarded the development contract for the supergiant Nasiriyah oil field in Iraq’s strategic southern eastern region.
Around the same time, it was announced that China Petroleum Engineering and Construction Corp (CPECC) and PetroChina would complete the critically important Halfaya gas project by the end of Q1 this year.
The supergiant Nasiriyah oilfield has an estimated 4.36 billion barrels of reserves in place.
9. Hong Kong Adds Hundreds Of Surveillance Cameras In Public Places – RFA
Hong Kong will add thousands of surveillance cameras on the streets. He could use facial recognition to track residents’ movements, sparking concerns of totalitarian monitoring of citizens’ every move.
The move comes amid an ongoing crackdown on public protest, peaceful activism, and freedom of speech in Hong Kong in the wake of the 2019 democracy movement.
10. Hong Kong Is Now Over, Says China’s Former Good Friend – RFA
Once seen as a good friend of China’s and former chairman of Morgan Stanley in Asia, Stephen Roach has said Hong Kong is over, attributing the city’s “demise” to its domestic politics, China’s structural problems, and global developments, namely worsening U.S.-China tensions.
Roach said the turning point for Hong Kong’s decline was when former Chief Executive Carrie Lam introduced the extradition bill that triggered large-scale democratic demonstrations in 2019.
11. Tesla Rival BYD Weighs EV Plant In Mexico – Nikkei Asia
Top Chinese electric vehicle maker BYD is considering setting up a
plant in Mexico, the head of the company’s local subsidiary said, as the automaker seeks to establish an export hub in the U.S.
Overseas production is indispensable for an international brand, said Zhou Zou, country manager of BYD Mexico. BYD surpassed Tesla in global electric vehicle sales in the fourth quarter last year.
12. China Preparing For ‘Protracted’ War, Says Think Tank – Nikkei Asia
China is learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and starting to prepare for a “protracted” war in the Indo-Pacific region by making legal changes that will help integrate military and civilian mobilization, an analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.
Recent moves by China to ease any return of reservists and veterans to their former units, as well as give the military access to civilian infrastructure and fuel stocks, show Beijing’s thinking about how to fight a conflict in the Indo-Pacific, said a senior fellow for Chinese security and defense policy at the IISS.
13. Chinese-Owned Copper Mine In Serbia Temporarily
Suspends Production After Protest – RFE/RL
Zijin Copper, the Chinese company that owns a copper mine in eastern Serbia, said that it was forced to suspend production at the mine temporarily because of a blockade by villagers on the road leading to the mine.
Residents of Krivelj began blocking the road leading to the mine on January 29, saying increased activity at the mine is endangering the safety and lives of the village residents.
14. No U.S. Troop Withdrawal From Iraq Or Syria, For Now – Al Arabiya
Despite more than 170 Iran-backed attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan since October, current and former American officials say there is no imminent plan for any withdrawal of U.S. forces.
U.S. and Iraqi officials agreed last year to begin talks about the future shape and role of an international coalition to defeat ISIS, which is present at the invitation of the Iraqi government. The first round of discussions was held in January but was quickly halted due to the deadly attack on U.S. troops in Jordan.
15. North Korea Fires Multiple Cruise Missiles: South Korea – D.W.
This is the fifth test of such weapons by Pyongyang since January, according to Seoul’s military, and comes with increasingly aggressive rhetoric by Kim Jong Un.
North Korea has also ramped up weapons tests, which include cruise missiles, what it claims to be an “underwater nuclear weapon” delivery system, and a solid-fuelled hypersonic ballistic missile. The cruise missile launches have also prompted speculation non whether Pyongyang could be testing weapons before shipping them to Moscow for use in Ukraine.
16. Japan’s Currency Diplomat Says Ready To Act As Needed
Amid Yen’s Fall – Kyodo News
Japan’s top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, said the yen’s fall has been “very rapid” and driven partly by speculative moves, warning the government to respond “appropriately” if required.
The remarks came after the U.S. dollar hit a three-month high of 150.88 yen overnight, as stronger-than-expected U.S. inflation data reduced market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
17. Coalition Agrees To Form New Pakistan Government: Parties – AFP
Pakistan’s two main political parties that joined forces to oust Imran Khan as prime minister in 2022 said they would form a new coalition to rule the country after an election last week failed to produce a decisive winner.
With the army-backed Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) short of votes to win a ruling majority, it said it was partnering with the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and a handful of smaller parties to form the next government.
Loyalists of Imran Khan, jailed on corruption charges, won the most seats as independent candidates in Thursday’s election.
18. Nvidia On The Brink Of Overtaking Alphabet In Market
After Amazon – WION
According to Reuters, Nvidia, the leading AI chipmaker, is on the brink of surpassing Alphabet as the third most valuable company on Wall Street after overtaking Amazon’s market capitalization for the first time in two decades.
The surge in Nvidia’s market value comes as the company benefits from the tech industry’s push to integrate AI into various products and services. Major tech firms like Meta Platforms are heavily investing in Nvidia’s graphics processors, leading to a significant increase in demand for its components.
19. 46% of Americans say inflation is affecting their Valentine’s Day plans – WalletHub
WalletHub’s survey aimed to find out more about how consumers are approaching Valentine’s Day 2024 and the financial side of relationships more generally.
- Inflation Takes a Bite Out of Romance. 46% of Americans say inflation is affecting their Valentine’s Day plans.
- V-Day Debt Is Worth It for Some People. Nearly 3 in 10 people think a Valentine’s Day gift is worth going into credit card debt.
- Financial Infidelity Hurts. 7 in 10 people think financial infidelity can be worse than cheating.
- Some People Don’t Expect Purchased Gifts. 24% of Americans don’t expect their Valentine to spend any money on a gift this year.
- Bad Credit Might Keep You Single. More than 1 in 3 people would not marry someone with a bad WalletScore or bad credit.
- Bad Spending Habits Stink. 60% of Americans say irresponsible spending is a bigger turnoff than bad breath.
- Separate vs. Joint Accounts. More than 1 in 3 people think having separate accounts is the best way to avoid money problems in a relationship.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
