Each side in today’s often-angry political debate over the upcoming presidential election seems convinced that its candidate has a clear advantage. But, as of now, neither President Joe Biden nor former President Donald Trump has an obvious edge in the popular vote as we enter the final eight months of the 2024 election season, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
Despite being widely criticized for his lackluster campaign and showing continuing signs of age-related mental impairment, Biden holds a slender 43% to 42% lead over Trump. The online national poll of 1,246 registered voters was taken from Feb. 28 to March 1, with a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.
Among those taking the poll, 8% said they preferred someone “other” than Biden or Trump, while 7% said they were “not sure.”
The partisan breakdown was fairly even, with 85% of Dems favoring Biden and 86% of Republicans favoring Trump. Among independents, a crucial swing vote for both candidates, the prospective vote broke 37% in favor of Trump, 36% in favor of Biden, with a hefty 16% saying “other” and 11% “not sure.”
That means, in terms of overall voter preference, as of March the head-to-head battle between Biden and Trump is within the margin of error, still too close to call.
But will both make it through the primary process to be their respective party’s candidates? And will the ultimate winner even win the popular vote?
As for the primaries, Biden and Trump seem safe. In the case of Trump, only one challenger remains: former United Nations Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. But in head-to-head preference in the I&I/TIPP Poll, 79% of Republicans preferred Trump, vs. 11% supporting Haley.
After a drubbing in her home state’s primary in late February (Trump 59.8%, Haley 39.5%), Haley’s chances of overtaking Trump nationally seem slim.
Meanwhile, I&I/TIPP shows Biden taking 76% of Democrats’ support in the primaries, versus 9% for Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips, Biden’s last official Democratic primary challenger. While 3% of Dems said they wanted someone else, and 12% said they weren’t sure, that’s not enough to erase Biden’s lead.
The poll gets tighter when independent and third-party candidates are included. The three major declared challengers include independent attorney-activist-author Robert F. Kennedy Jr., independent former Harvard Professor and self-declared socialist Cornell R. West, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
When those candidates are added, the race tightens considerably, with Biden and Trump tied at 38% apiece. Kennedy gets 9%, West 2%, and Stein 1%, for a combined 15% of the total vote for independents and third-party candidates. That third party-independent vote hurts Biden a bit more than Trump, cutting his share by 5 percentage points to Trump’s 4 percentage points.
Democrats in particular worry about the charismatic Kennedy, nephew of President John F. Kennedy and son of former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, both of whom were assassinated. He has a built-in edge among nostalgic Democrats of a certain age and among young progressives, which could cost Biden votes even if Kennedy can’t get on every state’s primary ballot.
“In swing states, where Biden doesn’t have a big Democratic cushion to protect him, the impact of those independent and minor-party candidates could be enough to swing the outcome,” observed the Los Angeles Times, citing a Berkeley IGS Poll showing third-party candidates costing Biden as much as 6 percentage points in the Golden State vote.
Democrats also fret over the “No Labels” third-party movement, which styles itself as a centrist alternative to the two major parties and which meets this week to decide whether to launch an independent challenge to the Dems and GOP in 2024.
“No Labels has drawn intense attention from Democratic critics of former President Donald Trump who worry the group could pull voters from President Joe Biden,” noted ABC News last week.
But of course all this ignores the elephant in the room: Biden’s age-related thinking and speaking issues, which even Democrats are now talking about out loud.
There’s also a growing pile of evidence linking Biden to his family’s alleged multi-million dollar influence-peddling efforts with companies linked to foreign governments, which many Dems fear could blow up before November’s election, costing them the White House.
Because of this, speculation continues to grow about Biden either stepping down on his own or being finagled off the presidential ticket by back-room Democratic Party maneuvering, either before or after the party’s late-August national convention.
If so, who would step in to take over?
I&I/TIPP asked voters the following: “If President Biden decides not to run in 2024, who would be your top choice for the Democratic candidate?”
The answer: Former First Lady Michelle Obama takes 22% of the vote, while Vice President Kamala Harris receives 20%. They are followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom (11%), Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (10%), former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (8%), Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (7%), Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (5%), and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar (2%). So while there are two favorites in Obama and Harris, neither would have a lock on the nomination at their current levels of support.
And only one, Clinton, has been on a national ticket before, and she lost to Trump in 2016. That year, Trump actually lost the national vote to Clinton, 48.2% to 46.1%, but won a 304-227 majority of the Electoral College by taking delegate-rich swing states such as Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan.
So just winning the popular vote, as recent experience shows, won’t be enough.
Will this year be a duplicate of 2016? Possibly. While still close in overall polls, Biden’s ratings are near all-time lows for a president, and a recent New York Times/Siena Poll shows significant erosion in his support even among Democrats, with 10% of Biden voters in 2020 now saying they’ll back Trump.
And Trump, polls show, has solid leads in at least seven key swing states, essential to winning the presidency.
“Only one in four voters think the country is moving in the right direction,” the Times wrote in its poll coverage. “More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as believe his policies have helped them. A majority of voters think the economy is in poor condition. And the share of voters who strongly disapprove of Mr. Biden’s handling of his job has reached 47%, higher than in Times/Siena polls at any point in his presidency.”
Of course, no one has a crystal ball. Even so, as it is now, Trump appears to have significant momentum. Whether Biden can regain traction despite his highly unpopular policies (especially on the economy and immigration) and growing concern about his age, remains to be seen.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israel Said To Boycott Gaza Ceasefire Talks In Cairo Over Hostage List – Reuters
Israel boycotted Gaza ceasefire talks in Cairo on Sunday after Hamas rejected its demand for a complete list naming hostages that are still alive, an Israeli newspaper reported. A Hamas delegation arrived in Cairo for the talks.
“There is no Israeli delegation in Cairo,” Ynet, the online version of Israel’s Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper, quoted unidentified Israeli officials. “Hamas refuses to provide clear answers, and therefore, there is no reason to dispatch the Israeli delegation.”
2. Hamas Says Gaza Truce Possible ‘Within 24 To 48 Hours’ If Israel Accepts Terms – AFP
“If Israel agrees to Hamas demands, which include the return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza and increasing humanitarian aid, that would pave the way for a [truce] agreement within the next 24 to 48 hours,” said a Hamas official, speaking on condition of anonymity.
In weeks of talks, Cairo, Doha, and Washington have mediated to pause the fighting and secure a truce by the start of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan next week.
3. U.S. VP Harris Calls For ‘Immediate’ Gaza Ceasefire In Rare Rebuke Of Israel – Al Jazeera
“Given the immense scale of suffering in Gaza, there must be an immediate ceasefire for at least the next six weeks, which is what is currently on the table,” Vice President Kamala Harris said.
Democrats are increasingly concerned that President Biden’s stance on the war could cost him votes, especially in Michigan, one of a handful of battleground states likely to decide the election outcome.
4. Russia Says It Intercepts 38 Ukrainian Drones Attacking Crimea – BBC
Russian troops have recently made gains in Ukraine as Kyiv struggles to sustain its forces with Western-made arms. Moscow took control of the key eastern town of Avdiivka last month.
However, British military intelligence says this has come at a huge cost. In its latest update, it said February had been the deadliest for the Russians since the start of the full-scale invasion on 24 February 2022 – with 983 killed and wounded per day.
5. Leaked Recording Of German Military Call On Taurus Missiles Is Part Of Putin’s ‘Information War,’ Says Minister – RFE/RL
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius accused Russia of trying to sow disunity following the leak of a confidential conference call between high-ranking German military staff discussing the possible use of German-made Taurus missiles by Ukraine.
The recording includes a detailed discussion of how the German military can technically support the supply of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine in the event of a decision by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to allow them to be sent.
6. Kyrgyzstan Seeks Uranium Mining Restart, Russian-Built Nuclear Plant – RFE/RL
Kyrgyzstan banned uranium mining in 2019, a hard-won victory for civil society and an acknowledgment of the tortured environmental legacy of industry during the Soviet era.
That ban may now be lifted as populist President Sadyr Japarov continues his pursuit of state-led production in the extractive industries he has championed for decades as an opposition politician. Meanwhile, a small atomic power station is set to be built by Russia’s Rosatom to help plug the Central Asian country’s power deficit.
7. OPEC+ Extends Oil Output Cuts Amid Global Growth Concerns: Report – WION
OPEC+ members, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have agreed to prolong voluntary oil output cuts into the year’s second quarter.
According to Reuters, this decision entails maintaining cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), with Saudi Arabia and Russia leading the charge. At the helm of OPEC+ allies, Russia disclosed plans to slash oil production and exports by an additional 471,000 bpd in the upcoming quarter, highlighting a rising reliance on production cuts to balance the market.
8. Economy, Security, Party Drama: What To Expect At China’s ‘Two Sessions’ – RFA
The capital will host concurrent meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC), the top legislature, and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the political advisory body of the Chinese Communist Party.
The big focus will be on Tuesday’s Chinese premier’s work report, which will review the past year’s economic performance and project the growth target and budget for the coming year. Lawmakers are likely to discuss how to fix the problem of the real estate sector, and market watchers will be looking to see if there is more fiscal support for the economy as local government debt balloons.
9. U.S.-Based Dissident Conference Seeks Plan For A Democratic China – RFA
As China gears up to focus on stability at its National People’s Congress, overseas activists will hold a conference in Washington to plan for the country’s future transition to democracy.
Titled a “National Affairs Conference” in a nod to high-level policy-making conferences that sowed the seeds for Taiwan’s democratic transition in the 1990s, the event is being run by exiled former political prisoner and 1979 “Democracy Wall” movement leader Wei Jingsheng, former 1989 Tiananmen Square student protest leader Wang Dan and Wang Juntao.
10. Australia Gives $41mn To ASEAN Countries For ‘Free, Open’ South China Sea – Al Jazeera
Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong has announced 64 million Australian dollars ($41.8m) in funding for maritime security at a special summit with members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in Melbourne.
Wong “welcomed efforts” by Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines to “delimit their maritime boundaries”. Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam claim parts of the South China Sea, which China claims almost entirely.
11. Hungary’s Orban Says Trump’s Comeback As President ‘Only Serious Chance’ For End Of Ukraine War – A.P.
Addressing a diplomacy forum in Turkey, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán also suggested that Trump’s possible return to the White House could help end the conflict in Gaza.
Orbán said he was convinced that if Trump had been in office when the war in Ukraine started, “there would have been no war now.” Trump’s return “is a precondition for a strong and quick peace in the European continent,” he continued.
12. France Set To Make Abortion Constitutional Right – AFP
French lawmakers are expected Monday to anchor the right to abortion in the country’s constitution, in a global first that has garnered overwhelming public support.
A congress of both houses of parliament in Versailles should find the three-fifths majority needed for the change after it overcame initial resistance in the right-leaning Senate. If Congress approves the move, France will become the only country in the world to protect the right to terminate a pregnancy in its basic law.
13. As Sweden Joins NATO, It Bids Farewell To More Than Two Centuries Of Neutrality – ABC News
For two centuries, Sweden embraced a policy of neutrality, refusing to take sides in wars or join any military alliance. This remarkably long era of nonalignment is coming to a close as Sweden joins NATO.
Like its neighbor Finland, Sweden had long ruled out seeking NATO membership. That changed practically overnight when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 – an attack sparked fears across Europe of Moscow’s revived imperial ambitions.
14. Swiss Vote To Give Themselves A Bigger Pension – BBC
Swiss voters have given themselves an extra month’s pension each year – in a nationwide referendum focusing on living standards for the elderly.
The government had warned that the increased payments would be too expensive. But almost 60% of voters said ‘yes’ in Sunday’s poll. Separately, 75% rejected raising the pension age from 65 to 66.
The maximum monthly state pension is €2,550 ($2,760) – not enough, many say, to live on in Switzerland.
15. South Korea, U.S. Begin Military Drill Amid North Korea Missile Threat – Kyodo News
In the Freedom Shield joint exercise to be held for 11 days through March 14, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the two allies will conduct 48 field drills, double the number last year.
The exercise focuses on neutralizing Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile threats by using forces in the land, sea, air, cyber, and space domains, the JCS and U.S. Forces Korea said in a briefing last week.
16. Nikkei Tops 40,000 For 1st Time After Upbeat Wall St. – Kyodo News
The Nikkei stock index surpassed the 40,000 threshold for the first time Monday morning on robust technology issues, reaching the milestone just over a week after hitting an all-time high for the first time in 34 years.
The benchmark Nikkei has gained over 1,000 points, topping record highs marked in 1989, since Feb. 22, attracting domestic and foreign investment amid expectations for favorable corporate earnings boosted by a weak yen.
11. Japan Government Contemplates Declaring An End To The Deflation Battle, Sources Say – WION
According to the Kyodo News report, citing sources, this consideration comes after nearly two decades of the country grappling with moderate price declines.
While Japan has consistently denied being in a state of deflation, dispelling entrenched public perceptions of stagnant prices and wages has proven challenging.
Potential avenues for a formal announcement include Prime Minister Fumio Kishida or Cabinet members making a public declaration or the government stating in its monthly economic report.
12. Nissan Accused Of Dumping Its Electric Car Pioneers – BBC
Owners of Nissan Leaf electric cars have accused the firm of “dumping its pioneers” after it announced its app would stop working for older vehicles.
The firm says the app – which allows remote control of functions such as heating – is stopping because the UK’s 2G network is being switched off. But customers have reacted angrily, telling the BBC they did not expect it to be withdrawn. Experts expect the issue to affect more electric vehicles as the market grows.
13. Haiti Declares Curfew After 4,000 Inmates Escape Jail Amid Rising Violence – Al Jazeera
Haiti’s government has declared a state of emergency and imposed a curfew after an explosion of gang-led violence over the weekend saw thousands of prisoners escape after assaults on the country’s two biggest prisons.
The government said it would set out to find the killers, kidnappers, and other violent criminals it said it had escaped in the attacks.
14. Study Links Sleep Apnea Issues To Memory, Thinking Problems – UPI Health
While the study found that participants with sleep apnea symptoms had higher odds of memory or thinking problems, it did not determine whether the disorder causes cognitive decline.
This common condition causes repeated breathing interruptions during sleep, potentially lowering blood oxygen levels. Symptoms include snorting, gasping, and breathing pauses. People with sleep apnea also have morning headaches or difficulty staying on task.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
