As former President Donald Trump continues his march to the Republican nomination and a rematch against President Biden, conventional wisdom has maintained that support for Trump would fall if he were criminally convicted in a court of law. But what if the United States Supreme Court overturns his conviction?
Several courts could uphold Trump’s conviction in front of a jury where he has been criminally charged – New York City (Alvin Bragg), Washington DC (Special Prosecutor Jack Smith), Miami (Jack Smith), and Georgia RICO (Fani Willis) – although the most immediate threat is the Bragg case in New York.
The Manhattan District Attorney has tailored together an ambitious suit to say that Trump violated federal campaign laws when he paid hush money to Stormy Daniels. The federal government found the case so weak that it passed on adding this as a criminal charge when Jack Smith handed out his criminal indictments in Washington and Miami. Campaign finance violations are civil in nature, not criminal.
Trials have not yet begun in the federal cases in Washington and Miami, so the chance that a jury would return a criminal conviction before the election is slim. Department of Justice rules are clear that no federal action should be pursued to help affect an election’s outcome. Given the District Attorney’s conduct in Georgia, the RICO case is a mess, and the entire case could slow down or even be dismissed.
But what if Trump were held guilty of a crime in any of the above cases? Trump would have to appeal the Georgia conviction to the Georgia Supreme Court and, upon receiving an unfavorable verdict, could appeal to the United States Supreme Court, which would probably accept the request. Because the Washington, Miami, and Manhattan DA cases are based on federal law, each is eligible to be appealed to the Supreme Court.
So, how would the Supreme Court rule? If Monday’s landmark ruling on Colorado’s decision to remove former President Trump from that state’s primary ballot provides clues, the Court could dismiss a criminal conviction.
Although the bottom-line decision in the Colorado case was 9-0, the three liberal justices (Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson) dissented vigorously on a crucial aspect. At issue was Section 3 of the 14th Amendment:
Section 3 Disqualification From Holding Office
- No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may, by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
While the section is limited to insurrection, five conservative justices of the Supreme Court ruled that “the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the states, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates.”
Translation: To punish a presidential candidate for insurrection, Congress alone has the authority to pass laws laying down terms under which an insurrectionist can be prosecuted and found guilty in federal Court. Overzealous and partisan individuals could use the existing patchwork of county, state, and federal laws to deny voters their right to choose and create mayhem and chaos into and beyond an election.
An evolving electoral map could dramatically change the behavior of voters, parties, and states across the country, in different ways and at different times. The disruption would be all the more acute — and could nullify the votes of millions and change the election result — if Section 3 enforcement were attempted after the nation has voted. Nothing in the Constitution requires that we endure such chaos — arriving at any time or different times, up to and perhaps beyond the inauguration.
Therefore, disqualifying a candidate from holding high federal office should be left to Congress.
The three liberal justices complained that the majority did not have to touch this part of Section 3 as it was not under question in the Colorado case. Understanding how difficult it is to get anything passed in Congress, they wrote that “the majority attempts to insulate all alleged insurrectionists from future challenges to their holding federal office.”
During the oral arguments in the Colorado case, Justice Kavanaugh pointed out that Trump had not been charged with insurrection in any court (an apparent reference to Jack Smith’s charges in Washington), nor had he been convicted. A majority of justices seemed sympathetic to the argument that the bar to criminally prosecute presidential candidates, certainly leading ones, should be markedly higher, such as express instructions from Congress.
It is always a stretch to imagine how the justices would vote in a criminal case different from an insurrection, a severe charge at the heart of the American democratic experience. Compared to insurrection, Trump’s other charges, such as a campaign violation, seem rather lame. Extending this logic, the Supreme Court could conclude that only Congress could adjudicate Trump’s crimes when he was in office. Which Congress has, considering that it impeached him in the House and acquitted him in the Senate.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Hamas Delegation Leaves Cairo Cease-Fire Talks To Consult With Leadership – UPI
Hamas temporarily withdrew from four days of Gaza cease-fire negotiations, saying it would only agree to a deal over Israeli hostages in return for a permanent cessation of the fighting.
Hamas said the negotiations would resume next week.
Hamas sources told CNN that the sticking points to reaching a deal were that the group wanted a permanent cease-fire, people displaced to other parts of Gaza to be able to go back to their homes, and an Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza.
2. U.S. Military To Build Port On Gaza Coast To Enable Humanitarian Assistance By Sea – AFP
The U.S. military is to set up a temporary port in Gaza so that more aid can get into the beleaguered territory by sea, President Joe Biden will say in his State of the Union speech.
Senior administration officials said that the move will not involve any U.S. boots on the ground in Gaza; however, military personnel will stay offshore while other allies are involved.
3. Russian Missile May Have Targeted Zelenskyy: Ukrainian Official – Reuters
The missile slammed into port infrastructure in the Black Sea city on Wednesday, just a few hundred meters away from Zelenskyy and Greece’s Kyriakos Mitsotakis as they inspected the port’s grain export facilities.
Russia denied the suggestion. Russia’s defense ministry said in a statement that its troops had attacked a hangar housing Ukrainian naval drones in the port, adding that “the goal has been achieved.”
4. Zelenskiy Hails Sweden’s NATO Entry, Eyes Day Ukraine Might Also Join – RFE/RL
Sweden officially joined NATO in Washington on March 7, two years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine forced it to rethink its national security policy.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hailed Sweden’s entry into the NATO military alliance.
Zelenskiy, who seeks Ukraine’s eventual NATO membership, added that:
there will be a day when Sweden will be able to congratulate Ukraine on joining the alliance as well. Together, we are always stronger.
5. China: FM Wang Says Washington Trying To ‘Suppress’ Beijing – D.W.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a wide-ranging address on Beijing’s foreign policy stances on the sidelines of the annual National People’s Congress.
He hit out at the U.S. amid tensions between the world’s two biggest economies while praising Russia. “If the U.S. is obsessed with suppressing China, it will eventually harm itself,” Wang said.
His tone with the European Union was more conciliatory. Still, some of his harshest words were saved for Israel’s ongoing operations in Gaza, where he called for an “immediate cease-fire.”
6. Beijing’s ‘Gray Zone’ Harassment Of Taiwan Up – Taipei – AFP
China has stepped up its “gray zone” harassment of Taiwan, subjecting it to waves of balloons, drones, and civilian vessels in recent months, Taipei’s Defense Ministry said.
The report said the drones and balloons sent around Taiwan and its outlying islands were a way to “collect intelligence” and an attempt to “obscure the existence of the median line of the Taiwan Strait,” the report said.
7. Xi Jinping Urges Chinese Military To Prepare For Conflicts At Sea, Protect Maritime Rights – WION
Chinese leader Xi Jinping urged the armed forces to coordinate preparations for military conflicts at sea, protect the country’s maritime rights and interests, and promote the marine economy.
His remarks came on the same day a Taiwanese defense ministry assessment released a report that stated that China has increased grey-zone warfare against Taiwan.
8. Hong Kong Prepares Tough New National Security Punishments – Al Jazeera
Hong Kong’s Legislative Council has begun debating the draft of a new national security law for the Chinese territory after Chief Executive John Lee said it should be passed at “full speed.”
The draft bill was published online a few hours before the session and includes new laws on treason, espionage, external interference, state secrets, and sedition. The new bill includes lengthy prison terms for offenses such as treason and longer sentences for acts deemed sedition.
9. U.S. Army Intelligence Analyst Charged With Selling Classified Military Information To China – BBC
Sgt Korbein Schultz was arrested at Fort Campbell in Kentucky following an inquiry by the FBI and U.S. Army counterintelligence.
He was paid $42,000 in exchange for dozens of sensitive security records according to the charges. Officials say the criminal conspiracy began in June 2022 and continued up until his arrest.
10. Images Show North Korea Sealing Its Border With China – BBC
North Korea has used the COVID-19 pandemic to seal up its northern border with China, new images from a leading human rights group show.
Human Rights Watch (HRW) describes a situation that has seen “intensifying repression,” with “drastically reduced” cross-border movement and trade. Focusing on satellite images, the report shows authorities in North Korea constructing 299 miles of new fencing in the areas it investigated.
11. U.S. Threatens Action Against Iran At IAEA Over Continued ‘Stonewalling’ – Reuters
The United States threatened future action against Iran at the UN nuclear watchdog if Tehran keeps “stonewalling” the watchdog by denying it the cooperation and answers it seeks.
At a quarterly meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors, Washington again told Iran to cooperate with IAEA inspectors who for years have been seeking explanations from Tehran on the origin of uranium particles at undeclared sites.
12. North Korea Set To Take Part In Tourism Exhibition In Moscow To Lure Russian Tourists – Yonhap
As shown on the event’s website, the Moscow office of DPR Korea Tourism will run a booth at the 30th International Travel & Hospitality Show, which is scheduled to be held in Moscow.
If the North Korean entity participates in the event as planned, it would mark the country’s first attendance at the major tourism show, which has been held for the past 30 years.
13. West African Juntas Set Up Joint Anti-Terrorism Force – D.W.
The junta-led Sahel states of Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali have agreed to establish a joint anti-terrorism force to deal with an Islamist insurgency that has spread across the region.
The three West African neighbors have all seen coups unseat their civilian governments. All three states had been members of the France-supported G5 Sahel alliance joint force. However, relations with France soured following the coups.
In September, Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali signed off on a defense alliance known as the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).
14. Microplastics In Blood Linked With Stroke, Heart Attack And Early Death, Study Finds – Sky News
Doctors have sounded the alarm on tiny plastic particles entering the human body after finding people with higher levels in blood vessels had a greater risk of stroke, heart attack, and earlier death.
The study found patients with micro- or nanoplastics in the fatty plaque in their blood vessels were much more likely to suffer a stroke, earlier death, or heart attack than those whose vessels were not contaminated with plastic.
The researchers identified plastic in the blood vessels in almost three in five (58%) of the 304 patients enrolled in the study in Italy. The results were published in the peer-reviewed New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM).
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
