The RealClearPolitics polling averages, the gold standard to understand the nation’s current mood, have the Democrats truly worried.
Nationwide, former President Trump has a +1.7% lead over President Biden. In Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada, Trump leads Biden by over five points, significantly greater than Biden’s 2020 victory margins of 0.4%, 0.3%, 3.2%, and 3.4%, respectively. Trump is leading in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, although by not such commanding leads.
If Trump’s leads hold, he will indeed be reelected in November. We can confidently say so because 2024 is a rematch, the first of its kind in over a century. Even if third-party candidates enter, they will likely be more noise than signal.
The 2020 election was extremely close. Liberal NPR analyzed the results and showed what a nail-biter match it was: “Just 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump from a tie in the Electoral College.” We calculate the 44,000 votes to be about a margin of 0.6% in each of these states.
Trump is no ordinary candidate. He faces 91 criminal charges in four separate cases, including two in federal court under an aggressive prosecutor. He was impeached twice by the House and was the target of the J6 Committee, a Congressional creation designed to use taxpayer dollars to malign him for nearly 18 months. Media coverage during his presidency was so negative that it often swung to a 90-10 imbalance. At 77 years, Trump is only about three years younger than Biden, even as most Americans cite Biden’s advanced age as a reason for his unpopularity.
So, what is powering Trump’s performance?
Of course, Biden’s failure as president, indicated by his 55.5% disapproval rating and the country’s 65% wrong-track number, are factors. Public memory is short, and Americans tend to view their presidents more fondly in hindsight. Voters tell reporters they are nostalgic for Trump’s years (low inflation, no new wars, a controlled border, a strong economy, and low unemployment).
But there is something more to it. Voters do not buy the Left’s and media’s lies about Trump anymore. On Saturday, campaigning in Michigan, Trump said that there would be a “bloodbath” if he loses the election. CBS News, Rolling Stone, and NBC News all carried headlines about the bloodbath comment. The Biden team criticized the former president’s “threats of political violence.” The problem? Trump was talking about auto manufacturing.
Americans see that the Left has tried every trick in the book – from ‘Russia, Russia, Russia’ to the latest Fani Willis RICO case – to bring Trump down. In each instance, the Left lied about what Trump supposedly did, sometimes using laws and lawfare to frame him.
In the Jean E. Carroll case, New York State pushed a law – valid only for one year – that allowed her to bring a rape case against Trump. The case was so fragile because Carroll could not even remember the year (in the mid-1990s) that the assault happened. There was no evidence presented (video footing, DNA evidence, witnesses) at all other than two friendly witnesses who testified that Carroll told them about the assault.
New York Attorney General Letitia James’s civil suit against Trump relied on an obscure, rarely-used New York law that penalizes businesses that falsify records. James, who campaigned that she would “get Trump,” filed a complaint in the court of Judge Engoran, who was so biased that he disallowed every motion that Trump made. Trump’s arguments that he paid back all of his bank loans with interest, so there was no victim, fell on Engoran’s deaf years. Even the banks filed a statement that they profited from dealing with Trump. Yet, Trump was charged a $450 million fine and forbidden to do business in a city where his name is synonymous with the city’s landscape.
In many cases, the Left itself did what it accused Trump of doing. Biden held on to more classified documents than Trump ever did, in more locations than Trump. Biden was not even authorized to take them because he was a senator or Vice President. Yet, the Special Counsel decided that Biden would not be charged because he was too mentally frail to face a criminal trial. Meanwhile, Jack Smith’s case against Trump is proceeding aggressively.
The Left has created such a bad situation for itself that it reminds us of the classic Cry Wolf bedtime story. Even if Trump were legitimately to be held guilty by a court of law, millions of Americans would never accept the verdict.
And then, there’s the wokeness. The Left, chasing ideological purity, is thoroughly disconnected from how average Americans feel. The Left’s mantra, which states that no human is illegal, might appeal in Hollywood. But America is also a nation of laws, and when someone crosses the border without proper documentation, they violate America’s laws – and are deemed illegal.
The Left’s argument that migrants are entitled to apply for asylum – and until their cases are adjudicated against them, they are legal – does not move voters. What Americans see is that 8 million people, none of them vetted, have crossed the border illegally – and not all of them are fleeing persecution due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion, or their inclusion in a particular social group. In fact, the majority of the border crossers are young men looking for better employment opportunities. Asylum provisions do not include economic hardships.
Laken Riley, a 21-year woman, was brutally raped and murdered on the University of Georgia campus by an illegal alien who was already wanted for crimes in New York. Biden, in his State of the Union, mispronounced the victim’s name, but acknowledged correctly that the accused was an illegal immigrant. Almost in the same breath, Biden said that several murders are committed by legal residents – a bizarre justification for the Riley murder. Worse, the next day, on MSNBC, Biden apologized for calling the murderer an illegal.
Despite the corporate media’s portrayal of the November election as a battle between democracy and dictatorship, Trump, who switched parties seven times in 13 years, epitomizes a political movement that resonates with the common man on Main Street and is reshaping the political realignment of key voting blocs. Trump transcends parties and has an uncanny ability to connect with ordinary Americans, underscoring a shift in the political dynamics, challenging traditional narratives, and highlighting the complexities of contemporary politics. Simply put, MAGA is not a derogatory term, except in the eyes of the leftist media and ultra-liberals, who often adopt a condescending attitude akin to their dismissal of the Tea Party. Most Americans recognize this reality.
Elections are nearly always a referendum on the incumbent. In a rematch, such a referendum becomes much easier. All voters have to answer is a simple question that Ronald Reagan posed 40 years ago: “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?”
By orders of magnitude in the swing states, Americans are saying they are decidedly not better off, and it is time for Biden to be sent packing.
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1. Israel Mossad Chief Leaves Doha, But Gaza Talks Continue: Qatar – AFP
Mossad head David Barnea “has left Doha,” Qatar foreign ministry spokesperson Majed al-Ansari told a regular briefing, adding that “technical teams are meeting as we speak.”
“We are at the point now where we expect the counterproposal to be presented to Hamas, but this is not the final step in the process,” al-Ansari said.
2. Pro-Israel Online Influencing Operation Has Been Targeting UNRWA: Report – Al Jazeera
An online influencing operation using fake social media accounts has targeted the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz.
Fake Reporter, an Israeli group that studies online disinformation, found that the accounts echoed Israeli government accusations about links between the UN agency and Hamas, spreading them in comments on social media websites.
3. Ukraine Says ‘Shocked’ U.S. Has Not Yet Passed $60 Billion Wartime Aid Package – AFP
The $60 billion aid package has been held up in the U.S. House of Representatives for months as Republican lawmakers insist new funds be linked to more action against illegal immigration.
“We are approaching the end of March, and deliberations continue, deliberations on the issue of vital interest, the strategic interest of the U.S. in Europe,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said in an online briefing.
4. Ukraine: U.S. Won’t Let Kyiv Fail, Pentagon Chief Says – D.W.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke at a meeting of Kyiv’s allies at the U.S. air base in Ramstein, Germany. He said the United States is determined to continue its support for Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia has replaced the head of its navy, according to state media. Nikolai Yevmenov, who had held the position since May 2019, has been replaced by Alexander Moiseyeve. Moiseyeve, the former commander of Russia’s Northern Fleet, has been appointed acting commander-in-chief of the navy.
5. Russia Moves Thousands Of Children From Border After Strikes – tippinsights
Around 9,000 children are to be evacuated from the Russian city of Belgorod and the wider region after shelling the regional governor’s blames on Ukraine.
Ukraine has increasingly used its long-range firepower to hit oil refineries and depots deep inside Russia. It has sought to unsettle the Russian border regions, putting political pressure on President Putin.
6. IOC Bars Russia, Belarusian From Paris Olympics Opening Ceremony – WION
The International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that Russian and Belarusian athletes will not be allowed to participate in the parade of nations at the opening ceremony of the Paris Olympics.
The athletes from the two countries have already been forced to compete under a neutral flag, but the latest decision is expected to further exacerbate the situation. The IOC said a similar scenario was used for the independent Olympic participants from the former Yugoslavia at the Barcelona Olympics in 1992.
7. Armenia’s PM Warns Azerbaijan Could Start War Over Disputed Border Villages – Al Jazeera
Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said his country could face a war with neighboring Azerbaijan if it does not compromise and return four Azerbaijani villages it has held since the early 1990s.
The four villages, which have been uninhabited for more than 30 years, are of strategic value to Armenia as they straddle the main road between Yerevan and the Georgian border.
Armenia suffered a major defeat in September when Azerbaijan’s forces retook Nagorno-Karabakh in a lightning offensive.
8. Article 23: Hong Kong Passes Tough Security Law Fought By Protesters For Years – BBC
Article 23 targets new offenses like external interference and insurrection, and penalties include life sentences.
The city’s pro-Beijing parliament fast-tracked Article 23 through its final stage in less than two weeks. Article 23 expands on a controversial national security law (NSL) earlier imposed by China. Critics of the new law fear it will further erode civil liberties.
9. Taiwan Warns Of ‘Enormous’ Chinese Bases Near Its S.China Sea Holding – Reuters
Taiwan’s foreign minister said that China has built “enormous” military bases on three islands surrounding Taiwan’s main holding in the South China Sea. Still, Taipei is not looking to further escalate tensions in the strategic waterway.
Taiwan and China claim most of the South China Sea as their territory. Still, Taiwan only controls one islet in the contested Spratly Islands deep in the southern part of the sea called Itu Aba, which Taiwan refers to as Taiping.
10. China Forges Defense Ties With India Neighbors Maldives, Sri Lanka – Nikkei Asia
China’s military is pursuing closer cooperation with the Maldives, Sri Lanka, and Nepal, all countries that border India, in a bid to strengthen its position amid an ongoing territorial dispute with New Delhi.
According to China’s Ministry of National Defense, a Chinese military delegation met with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu this month and held talks with defense representatives from all three countries. In addition to bilateral cooperation, the discussions covered shared regional security concerns.
11. Australia Seeks To ‘Manage Differences Wisely’ With China – D.W.
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Australian counterpart Penny Wong have held talks in Canberra. While both sides sought to hail improvements in ties late, they also noted tensions.
Wang’s visit is the first to Australia by a Chinese foreign minister since 2017. It signals a thaw in relations after ties became strained in part due to Australian calls for an independent investigation into the origin of COVID-19 in 2020.
12. Biden Admin Behind Botched Kabul Evacuation, Chaotic Fall Of Afghanistan: Report – A.P.
The top two U.S. generals who oversaw the evacuation of Afghanistan as it fell to the Taliban in August 2021 blamed the Biden administration for the chaotic departure, telling lawmakers that it inadequately planned for the evacuation and did not order it in time.
The rare testimony by former Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Mark Milley and U.S. Central Command retired Gen. Frank McKenzie publicly exposed for the first time the strain and differences the military leaders had with the Biden administration in the final days of the war.
13. North Korea Conducts Ground Engine Test For New Hypersonic Missile – Yonhap
North Korea said it has successfully conducted a ground jet test of a solid-fuel engine for a new type of intermediate hypersonic missile amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula.
The latest test came just a day after the North conducted firing drills involving super-large multiple rocket launchers, its second missile ballistic missile launch of the year. The South Korean military said Monday it detected the firing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles from areas near Pyongyang.
14. North Koreans Shocked As Cuba Establishes Ties With South Korea – RFA
North Koreans reacted in shock when they learned that their “socialist brethren” in Cuba established official relations with capitalistic South Korea, residents in the North told Radio Free Asia.
Seoul and Havana announced the move on Feb. 14, when their representatives to the United Nations in New York sent each other diplomatic notes acknowledging that the two countries would restore formal relations.
Formal relations had stopped when Fidel Castro and the communists took control of the Caribbean island nation in 1959.
15. Brazil’s Bolsonaro Indicted Over Fake COVID Certificate – D.W.
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been accused of tampering with a public health database to make it seem as if he was vaccinated. Bolsonaro has frequently downplayed the severity of COVID-19.
It’s now up to Brazil’s prosecutor-general to decide whether to file charges against Bolsonaro at the Brazilian Supreme Court. It was the first indictment against the former Brazilian leader, as more charges could be brought on other issues.
16. UN Weather Agency Issues ‘Red Alert’ On Climate Change After Record Heat – Al Jazeera
The World Meteorological Organization warns there is a ‘high probability’ that 2024 will be another record-hot year and warned that the world’s efforts to reverse the trend have been inadequate.
“Never have we been so close – albeit temporarily at the moment – to the 1.5C lower limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” said Celeste Saulo, the agency’s secretary-general. “The WMO community is sounding the red alert to the world.”
17. Finland Ranked World’s Happiest Country For Seventh Year – D.W.
The annual World Happiness Report has again ranked Finland and other Scandinavian countries the most cheerful nations on Earth. Costa Rica and Kuwait entered the top 20 in place of the United States and Germany.
The United States and Germany dropped out of the top 20 for the first time since the report’s first edition more than a decade ago. Afghanistan, plagued by a humanitarian catastrophe since the Taliban regained control in 2020, remained in last place.
Its release coincides with the International Day of Happiness on March 20.
18. More Youngsters Experiencing Unhappiness Similar To Mid-Life Crisis: Research – WION
The 2024 World Happiness Report has unveiled a concerning trend: young people are experiencing a decline in happiness, likened to a midlife crisis.
Experts cited in the media have drawn attention to social media’s role in aggravating this trend. The report’s revelations challenge conventional wisdom, which suggests that happiness follows a U-shaped trajectory, dipping in midlife before rebounding.
The findings also indicate a notable shift in happiness levels, particularly among younger demographics across North America and Western Europe.
19. Medication Abortions Lead Rise In U.S. Abortions Since Reversal Of Roe Vs. Wade – UPI Health
Following the historic reversal of Roe vs. Wade in June of 2022, the number of abortions in the United States has risen to more than a million per year, with medication abortions representing nearly two-thirds of those cases.
The numbers come from a new report by the Guttmacher Institute, a research and policy organization focused on sexual and reproductive health that supports access to abortion.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
