Who should be Donald Trump’s vice presidential running mate? Though no one yet knows who it will be, many people seem to have an opinion about whom it should be. It’s a long list of possible names for the increasingly important vice presidential job, as the latest I&I/TIPP Poll indicates.
As part of our monthly national online poll, taken from May 1-3, we asked 538 Republicans, and those who lean that way, two questions about who they preferred as Trump’s vice president. The poll has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
First we asked a straightforward question: “Who is your top choice for Trump’s vice president?” To be thorough, 21 different names were included in the list, along with “not sure.”
The big winner is no surprise: Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who collected 15% of the support. No one else received double-digit backing as top choice.
Trailing DeSantis were former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley (8%), author-entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy (7%), Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (7%), surgeon and former Health Secretary Ben Carson (5%), former Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (5%), South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (4%), former Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (3%), and TV commentator Tucker Carlson (3%).
A long list of others garnered 2% or less in the favorite veep sweepstakes (see chart above).
But the real big winner in the first round is “not sure.” That received a big 27% chunk of the votes, so maybe average voters haven’t been thinking about it too much, at least not yet.
After that first pass, we asked voters to have another go: “Who is your second choice as Trump’s vice president?”
There, things shifted a bit. Yes, DeSantis holds the top spot again, at 14%. But he’s followed by Scott, Carson, Haley and Abbott, all at 5%. The next tier begins with Gabbard at 4%, and Rubio, Ramaswamy, Noem and Carlson pulling in 3% backing. The remainder of the list, as enumerated above, all got 2% or less support.
But this time, the “not sures” fell to 7%.
Why do this exercise? By adding the two totals, we get a more-focused reading on whom Republican voters like best and want most as their next vice president. It’s a hidden preference.
And it isn’t really close, given the number of contestants. DeSantis, the energetic and successful Florida governor, takes in 29% of all the votes. Only Haley (12%), Abbott (12%), Ramaswamy (11%), Carson and Scott (both at 10%) reach double digits, though, at 9% Gabbard gets close.
This year, with Trump in legal trouble and perhaps not fully engaged on the campaign trail until summer, picking a running mate might be the last thing on his mind. But in fact, it may be the most important thing he does, apart from dodging his legal issues.
In 2016, Trump selected the little-known-but-respected conservative Indiana Gov. Mike Pence to join the ticket. It wasn’t a match made in Heaven, given the gulf between the two in their personal styles and behavior.
Pence, religious, a careful speaker and a by-the-book conservative, couldn’t have been more different than Trump, the garrulous, and at times brash and opinionated, entrepreneur. It didn’t work, and the relationship completely unraveled after Pence refused to go along with Trump challenging the results of the 2020 election.
The two who got the most votes — DeSantis and Haley — have both had well-publicized public rows with Trump, in particular during last year’s pre-primary jousting. But will that disqualify them?
As the I&I/TIPP Poll noted in February, Trump told Fox’s Bret Baier, “People won’t be that surprised” at whom he picks for veep.
That’s a good thing, since as we also wrote earlier in the year, “If, for one reason or another, Trump is unable to finish his campaign for president, it’s very likely that whomever he selects as his running mate will turn into the GOP’s candidate.”
Since 15 vice presidents have gone on to become president, and given Trump’s many legal difficulties, it’s a weighty decision.
In the past, Trump has talked up such possible vice presidential picks as Noem, Scott, and, possibly Ramaswamy, while his own advisers have talked up Vance, Huckabee-Sanders, and Stefanik.
With the campaign about to enter its all-crucial summer stretch, outsiders are looking to have a say in who Trump picks, among them “corporate leaders, wealthy donors,” according to CNBC.
One name likely scratched from consideration: Noem. After admitting to killing a hunting dog that disappointed her and had been untrainable, a bad look for any politician, she dropped out of serious discussion as a vice presidential candidate.
Another likely dropout from consideration could be North Dakota’s Burgum, whose chumminess with billionaire Bill Gates and extreme “net zero” beliefs are starkly at odds with Trump’s own very different energy ideas.
And recent rumors in the media that Trump would bury the hatchet with Haley and select her as his running mate appeared to be definitively scotched on May 11, when Trump tweeted out: “Nikki Haley is not under consideration for the V.P. slot, but I wish her well!”
That still leaves a lot of potential candidates. Who can win?
Overseas betting sites have their own lists of likely favorites, based solely on wagers both from the U.S. and elsewhere. Newsweek, citing the British BetFair site, gives Scott a 16.7% chance, followed by Burgum at 11.1%, Gabbard at 10%, Rubio 7.7%, and Stefanik 7.1%, with Carson, Haley and Vance trailing just behind.
But are the bettors right? As May’s I&I/TIPP Poll shows, that’s not what voters want. They plainly seek a vice president who is steady, experienced, popular and accomplished, a known quantity and not a pick out of left field. If elected, Trump will have just four years to enact his agenda.
That’s why voters seem to favor DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Carson, Scott and Gabbard, all with the exception of Ramaswamy having Washington experience. And that’s also something that Trump, who had never been elected to public office in 2016, now has.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Blinken Says Israel Lacks ‘Credible Plan’ To Protect Civilians In Rafah – Reuters
Secretary of State Antony Blinken also warned that an Israeli attack could create an insurgency by failing to kill all Hamas fighters in the southern Gazan city.
“Israel is on a trajectory potentially to inherit an insurgency with many armed Hamas fighters left or if it leaves a vacuum filled by chaos, filled by anarchy and probably refilled by Hamas,” Blinken said on NBC’s Meet the Press.
2. UK Ban On Selling Arms To Israel Would Strengthen Hamas, Says Cameron – BBC
UK’s Foreign Secretary told the BBC that while he would not support a major ground offensive in the Gazan city of Rafah, the UK would not copy U.S. plans to stop some arms sales.
He said the UK supplies just 1% of Israel’s weapons and warned Israel must do more to protect civilians and allow humanitarian aid through.
3. Egypt To Intervene In South Africa’s Case Against Israel At Top World Court – Reuters
Egypt said it would intervene in support of South Africa’s case against Israel at the International Court of Justice, citing the growing scale of Israel’s operations in Gaza and their impact on civilians.
The move highlights growing tensions between the two neighbors as the Israeli operation in the border town of Rafah tests long-term agreements and security cooperation.
South Africa has asked the court to order Israel to withdraw from Rafah as part of additional emergency measures in an ongoing case that accuses Israel of acts of genocide.
4. Israel Detains Journalists On Suspicions Of Working For Al Jazeera – UPI
Israel has detained journalists that authorities incorrectly believed were working for Al Jazeera, the news broadcaster banned from the country for its coverage of PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s war in Gaza.
The arrests were revealed by The New Arab, an English-language news website covering Middle Eastern affairs and based in London. It is the sister publication of Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, an Arabic-language news outlet.
5. UN Halves Its Estimate Of Women And Children Killed In Gaza – FDD
The United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) revised its child fatality figure from the Gaza war sharply downward, reporting more than 14,500 deaths on May 6 but then 7,797 on May 8.
OCHA also revised downward its figure for women fatalities from more than 9,500 deaths to 4,959 deaths. The Jerusalem Post first reported the changes on May 11.
“This change may signal that the UN has finally recognized the lack of evidence behind Hamas’s original claims that more than 14,000 children and 9,000 women have been killed in Gaza,” David Adesnik, FDD Senior Fellow and Director of Research, said.
6. Vladimir Putin Removes Sergei Shoigu From Russian Defense Ministry – BBC
Russian President Vladimir Putin has removed his long-standing ally Sergei Shoigu as defense minister and will be replaced by Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, the Kremlin has announced.
The Kremlin said the defense ministry needed to stay “innovative.” The 68-year-old has been in the role since 2012 and will be appointed secretary of Russia’s Security Council.
Shoigu, who has close links with President Putin, was given the defense portfolio despite having no military background, which rankled with some of his top brass.
7. Russian Assault On Kharkiv Intensifies – RFE/RL
Ukraine said “all areas” of the Kharkiv region’s border area are under Russian assault after Ukraine’s top military commander said “decisive battles” were being fought there.
Vovchansk, a border town with a prewar population of about 17,500, has become the focal point of Russia’s latest offensive as the Kremlin’s forces attempt to take settlements just east of Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second-largest city with some 1.4 million people.
8. Kremlin Critic Navalny Posthumously Awarded Dresden Peace Prize – RFE/RL
Russian opposition politician Aleksei Navalny was posthumously awarded the 2024 Dresden Peace Prize in the German city.
His widow, Yulia Navalnaya, accepted for her husband, who died in a Russian Arctic prison in February while serving a 19-year term on charges that were widely considered politically motivated.
Navalny was the third Russian among its laureates after Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and former Soviet officer Stanislav Petrov, who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident.
9. China’s Consumer Prices Rise For Third Month, Signalling Demand Recovery – Reuters
China’s consumer prices rose for a third straight month in April, while producer prices extended declines. This signals an improvement in domestic demand as Beijing navigates challenges in its bid to shore up a shaky economy.
The closely watched numbers follow better-than-expected import data for April, suggesting a flurry of policy support measures over the past several months may be helping consumer confidence.
10. Did China’s Xi Jinping Expose Disunity In Europe? – D.W.
The Chinese president’s visit to Europe yielded little breakthroughs on trade and Ukraine. However, it did show that Beijing prefers to work one-on-one to avoid collective opposition to its interests.
Political analyst Ferenczy said China’s overall strategy is to “undermine the EU’s unity” while increasing influence in individual member states. She added that Beijing’s strategy is to circumvent the EU and give member states special access to its markets, attempting to “make these countries feel special that they have a privileged relationship with China.”
11. Chinese Cities’ Last-Ditch Property Easing Exposes Limited Toolkit – Nikkei Asia
Chinese cities have dropped some of the last barriers to home purchases to spur demand. But rather than raising hopes for a recovery, experts say the moves show how little space the authorities have to work with.
Last Thursday, Hangzhou, the provincial capital of Zhejiang, which is home to the headquarters of Alibaba Group, and Xi’an, the capital of Shaanxi, said they were removing home purchase restrictions, including buyer vetting. The rules were imposed by Beijing in 2010 to curb speculation.
12. China Accused Of Targeting Its Overseas Citizens For Political Dissent – AFP
Beijing’s curbs on political activism are increasingly expanding abroad through “transnational repression,” Amnesty International said in a report, citing interviews with dozens of students in eight European and North American countries.
Overseas students reported that family members in China received threats after they attended events abroad, including commemorations of the bloody 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown, according to the group.
13. Chinese Companies Win Bids To Explore Iraq For Oil, Gas – Reuters
Iraq’s oil minister said Chinese companies won four bids to explore Iraqi oil and gas fields as the Middle Eastern country’s hydrocarbon exploration licensing round continued into its second day.
Chinese companies have been the only foreign players to win bids, taking nine oil and gas fields, while Iraqi Kurdish company KAR Group took two.
There were notably no U.S. oil majors involved, even after Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia met representatives of U.S. companies on an official visit to the United States last month.
14. Iranian Lawmaker Declares Tehran Obtained Nuclear Bombs – Fox News
After the head of the United Nation’s atomic watchdog agency warned that Iran has enough uranium to produce “several” nuclear bombs, a firebrand Iranian lawmaker declared on Friday that the Islamic Republic of Iran possesses atomic weapons.
“In my opinion, we have achieved nuclear weapons, but we do not announce it. It means our policy is to possess nuclear bombs. Still, our declared policy is currently within the framework of the JCPOA,” Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani told the Iran-based outlet Rouydad 24, according to an article published by the independent news organization Iran International in London.
15. Pumping Iron For A Fitter Brain: Weight Training Has Surprising Cognitive Rewards – WND Health
Studies show that resistance training boosts brain health. Weightlifting improves brain function, more so in the elderly. Cognitive decline can slow down with resistance training. Weightlifting may also lessen depressive symptoms.
The British Journal of Sports Medicine reports that resistance training (i.e., muscle-strengthening) is inversely associated with medical disorders like cardiovascular disease and diabetes. This means that the more you do, the lower your risk for these diseases.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
