- President Biden faces challenges in domestic and foreign affairs
- Biden’s job approval rating and grades for core issues are poor
- Support among Democrats remains relatively strong but is weak among others
President Biden may have reached a point of no return as he fights for a second term amidst a stagflationary economy, a worsening situation at a porous border, and an unstable Middle East.
Fewer than 33% give the President favorable grades on all ten issues the TIPP Poll tracks monthly.
President Biden’s job approval rating, a crucial indicator of public sentiment, has shown a consistent trend. After a rebound from his first-term low of 33% in December, it improved to 36% in January. It remained at 36% in February, increased to 37% in March, and maintained at 37% in April. It dropped to 35% in May, his lowest for 2024. In June, it edged up to 36%. In short, his approval rating is stuck in the mid-thirties, a significant factor in assessing his political standing.
Nearly three-fourths (74%) of Democrats approve of the job he is doing as president. In contrast, most Republicans (86%) and nearly six in ten independents (59%) disapprove. While two-thirds (67%) of liberals approve, only 20% of conservatives and a third of moderates (36%) express approval.
The results are from a nationwide TIPP Poll that surveyed 1,910 Americans from May 29 to May 31. The credibility interval for the survey is +/-2.4 percentage points.
TIPP developed an innovative metric, the Presidential Leadership Index, to facilitate easy tracking of three components: favorability, job approval, and Presidential Leadership. The Index is calculated as the average of the three. Readings above 50.0 signify approval, while readings below 50.0 indicate disapproval.
The Presidential Leadership Index improved by 1.1 points, recording 40.6 in June from 39.5 in May. However, among the 36 demographic groups we track, only five posted readings above 50, indicating the challenge of broadening support across various segments of the population.
Breaking it down by party, Democrats gained 3.9 points, improving from 75.1 in May to 79.0 in June. Republicans saw a 0.1-point drop to 11.4; independents declined by 0.8 points to 28.6.
Notice that his June 24 readings are below his 41-month average for all 36 demographic groups we track. Further, the change is in double digits for 23 of the 36 groups.
Overall Performance
When asked to grade Biden’s overall performance as president, only 30% gave him an A or B, six points less than his job approval of 36%.
Over six in ten Democrats (61%) give him good grades. Most Republicans (84%) and independents (56%) give failing grades.
The chart below summarizes how Americans see Biden’s handling of important issues. Notice that fewer than 33% give President Biden favorable ratings on all matters.
Further, a majority gives him a D or F for five issues and negatively pegs him in the 40% to 50% range on another five issues.
Based on the above grades given by Americans, here is President Biden’s report card.
Why are President Biden’s approval ratings weak? Let’s examine a few issues important to Americans.
Handling Of The Economy
Biden’s economic policies, collectively branded “Bidenomics,” have not helped Americans. Bidenflation, the price increase for goods and services under the President’s watch, runs at 19.2%, equal to 5.9% on an annual basis.
Prices have increased by 19.2%, while real wages have declined by 2.6%. Average hourly earnings for all employees dropped 2.6% to $11.09 in April 2024 from $11.39 in January 2021 when Biden took office.
Overall, one-half (52%) give Biden a “D” or “F” for his handling of the economy. Only 27% give him good grades.
56% of Democrats give him good grades. Meanwhile, most Republicans (83%) and independents (57%) give him failing grades.
Handling Spending
Most Americans believe the debt situation is unsustainable and want government spending to be reined in.
The national debt is now $34.6 trillion, making the U.S. the most indebted country in the world. On average, the government has borrowed $250,000 for each American household, and the debt is increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days.
Overall, one-half (51%) gave President Biden a “D” or “F” for handling spending and taxes. Only 25% give him good grades.
While 52% of Democrats give him good grades, Republicans (81%) and independents (56%) give him failing grades.
Immigration
Americans consider immigration the country’s second most important issue, at 34%, following the economy, which garnered 37%. The importance of immigration has steadily increased from 29% in December to 34% in June.
Biden has neglected the influx of migrants through the southern border. Most Americans attribute the crisis to his weak immigration policies.
The majority (56%) are dissatisfied with his handling of immigration and border security. Only one in five (21%) are satisfied. While 40% of Democrats are satisfied, 85% of Republicans are dissatisfied. Meanwhile, two-thirds (60%) of independents are dissatisfied.
Handling Crime
Weak immigration policies have contributed to an increase in crime. TIPP Poll has shown that Americans are experiencing increased crime in their neighborhoods.
This month, over half (52%) give Biden failing grades for his handling of crime. Only 24% give him an A or B.
Among Democrats, nearly one-half (48%) give him an A or B. Most Republicans (58%) give him an F, with another 22% giving him a D. Meanwhile, most independents grade him poorly: 37% give him an F, and 20% give him a D.
Antisemitism
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has brought attention to antisemitism in America. Many feel that Biden has not addressed the problem forcefully enough. Only one-fourth (24%) gave him good grades for handling the situation.
Foreign Policy
While President Biden is not doing well on domestic issues, he is also faltering on foreign affairs. The TIPP Standing In The World Index measures how Americans feel about the nation’s standing in the world, a proxy measure of the effectiveness of the president’s foreign policy.
The overall Index has been in the pessimistic region since September 2021. In June, Republicans (24.6) and independents (29.7) are pessimistic. Democrats managed to post 51.4, slightly above the neutral level of 50.0.
Handling The Israel-Hamas Conflict
One-half (52%) of the survey participants are unhappy with Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict. Just a fifth (20%) give him good grades.
While over a third (37%) of Democrats give him positive grades, a quarter (29%) give him a C, and another 25% give him failing grades of D or F.
Three-fourths (77%) of Republicans and over half of independents (55%) give him failing grades.
Handling Iran
Biden’s efforts to slow Iran’s acquisition of a nuclear bomb have not been effective. A segment of Americans thinks that the $6 billion Biden gave to Iran has helped fund terrorist activities by Hamas and other proxy non-state actors in the region.
Nearly one in two (48%) gives Biden failing grades for his handling of Iran, while around one-fifth (22%) give him favorable grades.
Russia-Ukraine War
The U.S. is fighting a proxy war with Russia, and President Biden has yet to develop a strategy to end the war. Most Americans think Biden has not done enough to restore peace. He has already committed over $100 billion, and the U.S. is on tap to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction, estimated at $750 billion.
Our data echoes the dissatisfaction, with 48% giving him a D or F for handling the war. Only 27% see Biden in a positive light on this issue.
Dissatisfaction runs high among Republicans (77%) and independents (51%), while most (52%) Democrats are satisfied.
Further, half (51%) of Americans are dissatisfied with President Biden’s efforts to find a settlement. In fact, Biden authorized the use of American weapons to hit internal targets in Russia, escalating the situation. Only 36% are satisfied.
Handling China
Only one-fifth (22%) give him good grades on the issue of China. Four in ten Democrats (47%) are satisfied. Most Republicans (76%) and independents (50%) are unhappy.
In summary, most Americans believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction under Biden’s leadership. The survey reveals that nearly two-thirds (63%) are dissatisfied, with 36% not very satisfied and another 27% not at all satisfied. Meanwhile, 11% are very satisfied with the country’s direction, and an additional 23% are somewhat satisfied.
Our Direction of Country Index converts these responses to facilitate easy tracking and ranges from 0 to 100, where scores above 50 are considered positive, below 50 are negative, and 50 represents a neutral standpoint.
The overall Index has been in the pessimistic region since September 2021. In June, Democrats have the most optimistic reading at 57.7. Republicans have the lowest score (19.4), indicating extreme pessimism. Independents are in the middle at 29.6.
In conclusion, Biden’s persistent approval rating of around 35% is problematic in the context of the coming elections. Despite the advantages of incumbency, Biden may have reached a point of no return, and his reelection chances don’t appear bright.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. U.S. Expects Israel Will Accept Gaza Ceasefire Plan If Hamas Does – BBC
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the U.S. had “every expectation” that Israel would “say yes” to the proposed ceasefire deal if Hamas accepts.
The three-part plan unveiled by President Joe Biden last week would also see a “surge” of humanitarian aid, as well as an exchange of some hostages for Palestinian prisoners before a permanent end to the war.
The proposal, however, has encountered vocal opposition from some members of Israel’s government.
2. Mediators Urge Israel And Hamas To Accept New Cease-Fire Bid – D.W.
Qatari, Egyptian, and U.S. mediators urged both sides to “finalize” the proposal in a joint statement over the weekend. U.S. officials say they believe Israel will agree if Hamas does.
The proposal outlines three distinct phases and is reminiscent of but not identical to past suggestions. “It’s time for this war to end, for the day after to begin,” Biden had said when floating the deal.
3. Israelis Attack Palestinian Athletes At East Jerusalem Stadium – UPI
Gangs of illegal Israeli settlers rampaged across the West Bank and East Jerusalem on Sunday, allegedly attacking Palestinian athletes at a soccer stadium, hurling rocks at cars near Ramallah, and setting fire to Palestinian land near the West Bank village of Duma.
Players and coaches were at the stadium in the At-Tur neighborhood when Israelis, under police protection, stormed the facilities, the Palestinian News Agency reported. Also known as Wafa, it is the official state-run news agency of the Palestinian National Authority.
4. Condemnations Mount Over Israeli Proposal To Label UNRWA A Terrorist Group – A.P.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia condemned an Israeli parliamentary bill that seeks to label UNRWA, the main provider of aid for Palestinians in Gaza, a terrorist group, joining a growing number of nations opposed to the proposal.
The Israeli bill, which passed a preliminary vote in parliament last week, seeks to brand the agency a “terror group” and seek to cut diplomatic ties between Israel and the agency.
Israel has accused the agency of militant links, claiming that hundreds of its employees are members of militant groups, including some who allegedly participated in the Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel.
5. Zelenskyy Seeks Support For Peace Summit – D.W.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke at Singapore’s Shangri-La Dialogue, urging participants to come to an upcoming summit in Switzerland to end the Russian invasion of his country.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused China of attempting to disrupt the peace summit. “China, unfortunately, is working hard today to prevent countries from coming to the peace summit,” Zelensky told reporters on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue forum.
6. China Accuses MI6 Of Recruiting Chinese State Workers – BBC
China has accused the UK’s Secret Intelligence Service MI6 of recruiting Chinese state employees as spies.
In a post on its official WeChat channel, China’s Ministry of State Security said MI6 operatives turned a Chinese man identified only by his surname Wang and his wife surnamed Zhou against Beijing. Both worked in “core confidential” departments in a Chinese state agency. This comes just over a month after the UK charged two men with spying for China.
7. Chinese Defense Minister Denounces ‘Outside Forces’ At Security Forum – RFA
Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun launched a caustic attack on what he called the “hegemonic powers” behind tension in the Asia-Pacific, a clear swipe at the United States and its allies.
In an address to the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore, Adm. Dong said that people in the Asia-Pacific are “independent and self-reliant” and were “against any attempt to turn our countries into vassal states or draw us into bloc confrontations.”
8. Australian Trust In China Low Despite Better Relations, Poll Finds – Nikkei Asia
An opinion poll has found that despite improving political and trade relations between Canberra and Beijing, Most Australians still distrust China and believe it could pose a military threat to their country in the next two decades.
The findings come from an annual poll conducted by the Lowy Institute, a local think tank. The poll surveyed over 2,000 Australians to track their attitudes on global issues. Lowy Institute said 71% of respondents worry about a possible Chinese military threat.
9. Iranian Hard-Liner Ahmadinejad Seeks Presidency – UPI
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran’s hardline former President, has registered to compete in the nation’s elections scheduled for June 28th on the heels of the death of former president Ebrahim Raisi.
Al Jazeera reported that he is confident he can resolve Iran’s domestic and international issues. Ahmadinejad was first elected president in 2005 and stayed in office until 2013 when he was forced to step down due to term limits. He is a former member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
10. North Korea Says It Will Stop Sending Trash-Filled Balloons, Will Resume If S. Korea Sends Leaflets – Yonhap
In a statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korean Vice Defense Minister Kim Kang-il claimed Pyongyang had sent 3,500 balloons, carrying 15 tons worth of debris, toward South Korea between Tuesday night and Sunday morning.
Kim added that should South Korea send anti-communist leaflets again, North Korea would retaliate with balloons carrying “garbage amounting to 100 times” the quantity of those propaganda pieces of paper.
11. Mexico Elects Claudia Sheinbaum As First Woman President – BBC
Mexico’s official electoral authority said preliminary results showed that 61-year-olds won between 58% and 60% of the votes. In her victory speech, she told voters: “I won’t fail you.”
Before running for president, Ms. Sheinbaum was mayor of Mexico City, one of the country’s most influential political positions and one seen as paving the way for the presidency.
12. OPEC+ Extends Output Cuts To Support Prices Until End Of 2025: Statement – Al Arabiya
In addition to the 12-member oil group and its ten allies’ decision, eight countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — said they would extend voluntary supply cuts made at Riyadh’s request to further support the market.
The decisions came after the biannual meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its ten partners. Oil prices have changed little since the last meeting in November, hovering at around $80 a barrel.
13. Saudi Aramco’s $12 Billion Stock Offer Sells Out In Hours – Al Arabiya
While it wasn’t immediately clear how much of the demand came from overseas, the order book reflected a mix of local and foreign investors, people familiar with the matter said.
The extent of foreign participation will be closely watched as an indicator of interest in Saudi assets.
The Saudi government owns about 82 percent of Aramco, while the Kingdom’s wealth fund holds a further 16 percent stake.
14. PTSD, Acute Stress Disorder Rising On American College Campuses – HealthDay News
Rates of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) rose by 4.1 percentage points between 2017 and 2022, and acute stress disorder (ASD) diagnoses rose by 0.5 percentage points, the data showed.
Any number of events – campus shootings, sexual assault, physical violence, and natural disasters, for example – can trigger either PTSD or ASD. PTSD can lead to more persistent symptoms, while ASD’s impact may be more transient – anywhere from a few days to a month.
The findings “suggest the need for targeted, trauma-informed prevention and intervention strategies by mental health professionals and policy-makers to support the affected student population,” the team led by Yusan Zhai wrote.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
