The stunning felony conviction of former President Donald Trump garnered headlines around the world and created sharp political arguments across the U.S. But did it affect the presidential race? The answer is yes. It seems to have actually helped Trump, the June I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
The poll was taken from Wednesday, May 29, through Friday, May 31. The verdict against Trump in New York state court was rendered on Thursday, May 30. So a significant share of the 1,675 registered voters who took the national online I&I/TIPP Poll actually knew that Trump had been found guilty of 34 felony counts.
So, did Trump’s guilty verdict change minds, weakening his support? On the contrary, it seems.
In the head-to-head poll between President Joe Biden and Trump, it’s now a statistical toss-up, 41% to 41%. But that’s an improvement for Trump from May, when he trailed Biden by 2 percentage points in that month’s I&I/TIPP poll (42% Biden to 40% Trump). The June poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

What about independents, the all-crucial swing vote in national elections? There, it’s not close, with Trump handily beating Biden.

Another question: What happens when the third party and independent candidates — independent lawyer and activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., former Harvard professor and sociologist Cornell West, and Green Party standard bearer Jill Stein — are included?
As one can guess, the totals for Biden and Trump shrink a bit with third-party challengers, but still show a 38% to 38% tie, with RFK Jr. at 10% (down from 12% in May), West at 1%, and Stein and “other” at 2%.

While month-to-month changes are small for both candidates, some interesting shifts occurred within individual voting groups.
In May, 33% of independents supported Trump, 25% Biden, 18% RFK Jr. and 6% “other.” In June, that had become 31% Trump, 22% Biden, 18% RFK Jr., and 5% “other.” That shift among independents, who make up about 28% of the I&I/TIPP responses, seems to favor Trump.
In another question, we asked respondents whether they “strongly” or “moderately” supported their respective candidates. It’s called “support intensity.”
Again, Trump has an edge in voter enthusiasm, with 65% of his backers saying they support him “strongly,” while 32% responded “moderately,” for a total of 97%. Biden, meanwhile, received 60% strong support, but 38% moderate, for a total of 98%.

So, while the overall support is roughly the same, Trump appears to have five-point edge when it comes to the strength of his backing, possibly key to whether each candidate’s supporters bother to show up at the polls in November.
When the supporters of potential spoiler RFK Jr. are thrown into the mix, it becomes apparent that his support isn’t as strong as that of the two main candidates. Of his backers, only 34% support him “strongly,” 55% “moderately”, and 10% “not sure.”
The I&I/TIPP Poll also asks questions that try to find hidden preferences, leanings, or perceptions among reticent voters.
For instance: “Regardless of your candidate preference, who do you expect to win the presidential election in November?”

Once again, as the chart above shows, it’s a dead heat, 36% Biden, 36% Trump. Another 15% said it was “too close to call,” while 10% responded, “I don’t know enough to answer one way or the other.” Among Republicans, 71% said Trump, 7% Biden, and 12% said too close to call, nearly identical to Democrats’ 72% Biden, 6% Trump, and 12% too close to call.
Perhaps the most revealing of the questions is one intended to find out how voters of both major parties and independents perceive their neighbors’ voting: “To the best of your knowledge, if the presidential election were held today, who do you believe most of your neighbors would vote for?”

There, as the chart shows, 43% answered Trump, compared to 31% for Biden. Another 25% said “not sure.”
But the bulk of that difference was affiliation: 73% of Republicans believe their neighbors will vote for Trump, compared to just 15% of Dems and 42% of independents. But 62% of Democrats think their neighbors will give Biden their vote, versus only 8% of Republicans and 15% of independents.
If anyone was expecting a sudden mass exodus of Trump voters following his legal defeat they were certainly disappointed. If anything, Trump’s hand seems to have strengthened some in the immediate aftermath of his conviction.
Other recent polls back up I&I/TIPP’s recent soundings of public opinion on Trump’s post-conviction political prospects, including polls showing Republicans and Democrats more likely to support Trump, weakening support for third-party candidates, a clear trend toward greater minority support for Trump, and snap polls taken online after the verdict showing Trump moving ahead of Biden.
As for the conviction itself, it’s quite possible that it will be overturned, with libertarian Reason Magazine (not pro-Trump) flatly declaring Trump’s convictions “unconstitutional,” George Washington law professor Jonathan Turley calling the trial an “abuse” of the U.S. justice system, while nationally recognized constitutional and criminal lawyer Alan Dershowitz, who defended Trump in his first impeachment trial, added “I am not encouraged that he’ll get a fair appeal.”
Even former Vice President Mike Pence, no longer on speaking terms with Trump after a bitter falling-out, told Fox News: “The conviction of former President Trump on politically motivated charges is an outrage and disservice to the nation.”
The questions over Trump’s trial and the 34 separate charges brought by progressive New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who made trying Trump a campaign promise in his run for office, and tried before Judge Juan Merchan will be bitterly debated in the coming months.
One thing is clear and incontrovertible: No case like this has ever been tried before, and the clear political biases evident during the trial are already being harshly criticized by attorneys on both sides of the political spectrum. But whether an appeal will result in the unanimous jury decision being overturned is unclear at best.
As to whether this would keep the former president from reclaiming the White House, Trump perhaps had the final say immediately after his conviction: “The real verdict is gonna be Nov. 5 by the people, and they know what happened here today. Everybody knows what happened here.”
As the I&I/TIPP Poll suggests, at least for now, Trump does not seem to be politically damaged by his legal troubles. He may even be politically stronger.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Qatar Says Current Gaza Ceasefire Proposal Is Closer In Positions Of Both Sides – Reuters
Qatar said it delivered an Israeli proposal to Hamas that reflected the positions stated by U.S. President Joe Biden, adding that the paper was now much closer to the positions of both sides.

Qatar also stressed that there should be a clear position from both parties to reach a ceasefire deal, its foreign ministry spokesperson said. “We are waiting for a clear Israeli position that represents the entire government in response to the U.S.’s Gaza proposal,” Majed al-Ansari added.
2. Netanyahu’s Ultra-Orthodox Coalition Partners Back Gaza Hostage Deal – Reuters
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s biggest coalition partner, Shas – an ultra-Orthodox Jewish party – said it would support a prospective deal to free hostages from Hamas captivity even if it entails an overhaul of Israel’s Gaza war strategy.

Earlier on Monday, the leader of United Torah Judaism—the second such party in the coalition—voiced his support for the deal. The combined support of the two parties could help Netanyahu offset opposition by far-right partners to a U.S.-backed proposal for winding down the Gaza war.
3. Palestinian Authority Should Govern Gaza, France’s Macron Tells Israel’s Netanyahu – AFP
In phone talks, France’s President Emmanuel Macron backed the proposal for a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal presented by U.S. President Joe Biden.

“Gaza must be an integral part of a future Palestinian state, and a reformed and reinforced Palestinian Authority, with the help of the international community, should ensure its governance,” he said.
4. Biden Hints Israel’s Netanyahu Prolonging Gaza War For Political Aims – AFP
President Joe Biden swiped at Benjamin Netanyahu in an interview with Time magazine, saying there was “every reason” to conclude the Israeli prime minister was dragging out the Gaza war to save himself politically.

Biden was speaking to Time days before he announced an Israeli proposal for a Gaza ceasefire deal. Biden added that he had a “major disagreement” with Netanyahu over the post-conflict future of Gaza and said Israel had engaged in “inappropriate” conduct during the war.
5. U.N. Expert Panel Urges World To Recognize The State Of Palestine – UPI
The experts were quoted as saying in a U.N. Human Rights Office news release that recognition constituted an “important acknowledgement of the rights of the Palestinian people and their struggles and suffering towards freedom and independence.”

The group defined “State of Palestine” as being the state formally declared by the Palestine Liberation Organization on Nov. 15, 1988, that claims sovereignty over parts of historic Palestine occupied by Israel in the 1967 war – the West Bank, including East Jerusalem and the Gaza Strip.
6. Hezbollah ‘Ready’ For An All-Out War With Israel, Deputy Head Says – Al Jazeera
The Lebanese armed group Hezbollah is not seeking to widen its conflict with Israel but is ready to fight any war imposed on it, its deputy leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, said.

Iran-aligned Hezbollah and Israel have been exchanging fire for the past eight months in parallel with Israel’s ongoing assault on Gaza, raising concerns that an even wider conflict could break out between the heavily armed adversaries.
7. Maldives Moves To Ban Israeli Passport Holders – UPI
Mohamed Muizzu, the president of the Maldives, signed off on the decision Sunday following a recommendation from his cabinet.

Muizzu has also appointed a special envoy to assess Palestinian needs and has set up a fundraising campaign to assist Palestinians with the help of the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East.
8. French Military Trainers Would Be ‘Legitimate Target’ In Ukraine: Lavrov – Al Jazeera
Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, made the remarks at a news conference after Ukrainian officials revealed they were seeking training assistance for their troops from France.

“Regardless of their status, military officials or mercenaries represent a legitimate target for our armed forces,” Lavrov said.
Ukraine has said paperwork that would allow French instructors to train Kyiv’s soldiers has been signed.
9. Ukraine Missile Strike On Russian Soil ‘Likely’ Used U.S. Weapon System – UPI
The Institute for the Study of War said in a post on X that the attack on the Russian S-300/400 battery north of Belogorod city over the weekend was probably conducted with a High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System.

If confirmed, the strike would be the first time Ukraine has used U.S.-supplied weapons to strike at targets inside Russia since President Joe Biden cleared their use last week for limited strikes against military targets on Russian territory that pose an imminent threat.
10. Czechs Say They Will End Use Of Russian Oil Within A Year – RFE/RL
Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala said that the country will stop using all Russian oil by the end of the first half of next year by increasing capacity at the Transalpine Pipeline (TAL).

Fiala said the work on an upgrade to increase the pipeline’s capacity will be completed this year, allowing for a boost in capacity by up to 4 million tons of oil. The increased flow will replace Russian supplies that have flowed into the country via the Druzhba pipeline for some six decades.
11. Biden Warns China’s Economy Is On The Brink – Axios
President Biden offered a bleak assessment of China’s economic future in a new interview with Time magazine.

“You’ve got a population that’s considerably older than the vast majority of the youth in Europe, that is too old to work,” Biden told Time. “Where is it going to grow? You’ve got an economy that’s on the brink there. The idea that their economy is booming? Give me a break,” he added.
Biden also cast doubt on the continuing power of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a series of infrastructure projects worldwide, terming it a “nuisance graveyard initiative.”
12. China Maintains Stance On Disputed Gulf Islands Despite Iran’s Anger – Reuters
In a rare show of anger toward its biggest trading partner, the Iranian foreign ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador to Iran to protest China’s “repeated support” for the UAE’s “baseless claims.”

In a statement last week, China expressed support for the UAE’s efforts to reach a “peaceful solution” to the issue of the islands—the Greater Tunb, the Lesser Tunb, and Abu Musa—claimed by both the UAE and Iran. Tehran has held the islands since 1971.
13. Tiananmen Square Massacre Protest Torch Passes To The Next Generation – RFA
Thirty-five years after the Tiananmen Square massacre took place, the commemorative torch appears to be passing to a younger generation of activists in cities around the world, including in democratic Taiwan.

Aside from the “old guard” of exiled democracy activists who have long been prominent figures in memorial events marking June 4, 1989, the anniversaries are also increasingly attended by Hong Kongers in exile and a younger generation of campaigners who took part in or were inspired by more recent protests across China.
14. Signs Detected Of N. Korea Demolishing Part Of Donghae Inter-Korean Railway: NIS – Yonhap
South Korea’s spy agency said it had detected signs that North Korea has recently been demolishing some sections on the northern side of the inter-Korean railway in an apparent move to erase the legacy of inter-Korean exchange and cooperation.

South and North Korea agreed to restore two railways – the Gyeongui and Donghae – in 2000 when the divided countries held the first summit of their leaders. The Donghae railway linked eastern coastal cities across the heavily fortified border.
15. Modi’s BJP Loses Majority In India Election Shock, Needs Allies For Gov’t – Al Jazeera
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost its national majority, marking a dramatic shift in a political landscape it has dominated for the past decade.

Although the BJP emerged as the country’s single-largest party in the lower house of India’s parliament, it ended up with only 240 seats. The halfway mark is 272 seats.
Modi and his party are still likely to be able to form India’s next government – but will be dependent on a clutch of allies whose support they will need to cross the 272-seat mark.
16. Global Warming Accelerating At ‘Unprecedented’ Pace – Study – AFP
“Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record,” a new study published in the journal Earth System Science Data said.

The 2015 Paris Agreement, which resulted from a previous COP summit, saw countries agree to cap global warming at “well below” 2C above preindustrial levels while striving for the safer limit of 1.5C. However, the study found that, by the end of 2023, human activity had pushed temperatures 1.31C above the preindustrial level.
17. Drinking Alcohol On Long Flights Could Harm Heart Health – HealthDay News
Alcohol combined with cabin pressure at cruising altitude lowers the amount of oxygen in the blood and raises the heart rate for a long period, even in the young and healthy, researchers explained.

And the more alcohol a person drinks, the greater these effects might be – especially among older passengers or those with chronic health problems, results show.Blood oxygen levels can decline to around 90% in healthy passengers at cruising altitude. Anything lower than that is considered hypobaric hypoxia, or low blood oxygen levels at high altitude.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights