When the world’s largest democracy, India, underwent a complex seven-phase, 41-day general election to elect 543 members of its parliament this week, exit polls showed Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s alliance winning 360 – 400 seats in a landslide. The dynamic leader, who had catapulted to the world’s stage as the host of the 2023 G-20 summit in New Delhi, at which he invited South Africa as a permanent member, was seeking a third term.
When the official results were declared, Modi’s alliance could only manage 292 seats. His Bharatiya Janata Party’s performance was so terrible that it lost 63 seats, forcing it to seek alliance partners to stake a claim to form the government, Israeli-style. It was a far cry from the party’s spin going into the elections and reminded us of how former President Barack Obama described the 2010 midterm vote for the Democrats: “a shellacking.”
Just over three time zones away, during the same week, South Africa’s ruling ANC, of Nelson Mandela fame, suffered a historic election defeat. In power for 30 long years since the last days of apartheid, the party lost its majority in the country’s National Assembly, ushering in a period of coalition governance. In his first comments, President Cyril Ramaphosa, who will step down, said, “Our people have spoken whether we like it or not.”
Two major democracies suffering an anti-incumbent wave is terrible news to President Biden. Luckily for him, America follows a presidential-style participatory democracy in which voters directly elect their leader, and coalition politics are irrelevant. Only one person can be elected in a binary-choice election. Former President Trump has consistently led the polls, especially in the battleground states. Trump’s stunning felony conviction garnered headlines around the world and created sharp political arguments across America. Still, the anti-incumbent mood in the United States is so strong that our June I&I/TIPP Poll actually showed Trump improving over his May standing.
India’s election results should have significantly frightened the Biden campaign. While it is perilous for any journalistic outfit to compare elections across two countries, what is undisputed is that incumbents seek reelection based on their accomplishments. And here, Modi’s record is unmatched among the world’s largest democracies. Further, as the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections, we have observed that in the final days before the election, undecided voters usually end up supporting the challenger in larger numbers rather than the incumbent – because they are not convinced by the incumbent’s performance.
India is now ranked among the world’s top five economies. The country’s investment in infrastructure—roads, bridges, ports, and airports—is impressive. Under Modi, the country embraced the equivalent of a VAT tax to improve inflows and has spent on public welfare programs to benefit the poor, including gas connections, toilets, water, and electricity. India’s biometric identification – where a citizen’s biometrics is needed to obtain government benefits – has surprised even G-20 leaders because of its efficiency, although significant privacy concerns remain. The country’s advances in digital payments make it a leader in the Free World. Even street vendors use QR codes and mobile phones to pay and receive money seamlessly. India has also made impressive achievements in science and technology, becoming the only country to land a rover on the moon’s South Pole with a budget of less than $65 million. India’s accomplishments have made it a regular destination for foreign leaders seeking partnerships, such as providing skilled engineers to work in their countries. Modi has attended state receptions in Washington and numerous other world capitals.
Despite such a solid record, Modi’s party was shunned by the electorate, blaming him for promoting an aggressively Hindu-centric agenda and talking down to India’s Muslim minority. The Biden campaign is wondering: If Modi can go down, how would Biden do with his terrible record of leadership?
America had engaged in no new conflicts during President Trump’s entire term. Within ten months of the Biden administration came the Afghan debacle. After twenty years of blood and treasure lost to dislodge the Taliban, Biden let the Taliban come back and rule the war-torn country, leaving behind American weapons and a military base. Because of his sanctions, women and children are the most impacted. And 14 servicemen and women died as America left.
Two months later, America ignored President Putin’s warnings and signed a security agreement with Ukraine, triggering a war that has consumed the world for much of Biden’s presidency. America has committed to pouring over $175 billion, but there is not much to show. According to the Harvard Kennedy School’s Russia-Ukraine War Report Card in December 2023, Russia occupied about 20% of Ukraine, nearly 9,000 square miles more than before the Feb 2022 invasion. The BBC says that Russian forces have made advances north and northeast of Kharkiv, the second-biggest city in Ukraine, occupying even more territory.
Nearly seven million refugees from Ukraine have resettled globally, the largest migration since World War II. China and Russia have drawn closer, hosting joint military exercises with friendly nations. Putin is firmly in power, having ‘won’ reelection. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy’s term expired on May 19, and he is continuing in office only because of martial law, used for state emergencies. Despite the stringent sanctions that Biden has led, Russia has overtaken Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy in terms of Purchasing Power Parity. Germany and the United Kingdom are in a recession.
Biden’s terrible leadership in Israel has led to global protests and divisions within his party. The Middle East, which enjoyed camaraderie under Trump following the Abraham Accords, is so fractured that all the players have no clue how to help resolve the impasse. Back home, for all the talk about upholding values and democracy, Biden has led a well-planned effort to imprison and incapacitate his political rival, as authoritarian regimes do. Illegal immigration is so rampant that Biden is now resorting to executive orders to stem the tide. Recall that Biden’s reversal of Trump-era orders caused this mess. Meanwhile, Americans’ economic confidence dims, as Americans report being gripped by intense financial stress because of persistently stubborn inflation, wages not keeping pace, extraordinarily high rents, and labor market troubles.
Greek mythology talks about Midas and his golden touch. Everything Biden touches turns into a problem. With Biden’s appalling and horrifying record and a confused public presence only held together by teleprompters, leaked advanced questions, and eager aides, Biden faces an anti-incumbency tsunami. If his team doesn’t believe us, they should call their counterparts in New Delhi and Pretoria.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israel Says Jets Strike School Containing Hamas Compound, At Least 40 Killed – Reuters
Ismail al-Thawabta, the director of the government media office, rejected Israel’s assertion that the UN school in Nuseirat, in central Gaza, had hidden a Hamas command post.
Israel’s military said it had taken steps to protect civilians before its fighter jets carried out a “precise strike,” circulating satellite photos highlighting two parts of a building where it said the fighters were based.
2. Biden, Key Allies Urge Hamas To Accept Ceasefire Deal In Joint Statement – AFP
President Joe Biden and 16 other world leaders, including key European and Latin American players, jointly urged Hamas to accept a ceasefire deal and for Israel to accept compromises.
“There is no time to lose. We call on Hamas to close this agreement,” said the statement issued by the White House.
More unusually, the statement brought together the ideologically divergent leaders of South America’s most populous nations – Brazil and Colombia, whose left-wing presidents have stridently denounced Israel, and Argentina, whose new libertarian leader backs Israel.
3. Macron Promises To Send Mirage Combat Aircraft To Ukraine – A.P.
French President Emmanuel Macron told France’s public broadcaster that a new cooperation with Ukraine to be announced on June 7 will include the sale of the French-made Mirage 2005, which will “allow Ukraine to protect its soil, its airspace” against Russian attacks.
Macron said France will also start training Ukrainian pilots. His comments came after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy joined world leaders in France to commemorate the 80th anniversary of the D-Day invasion.
4. Russia To Conduct Naval Exercises In Caribbean – UPI
The exercise scheduled for next week will involve three Russian Navy ships and a nuclear-powered submarine. The submarine will arrive at the Port of Havana in Cuba and stay for one week.
Cuban officials said the visit is part of the “friendly” relations between Russia and Cuba and does not pose a threat to the region because “none of the ships carry nuclear weapons.”
5. ‘This Is Not A War Economy’: Russian Economic Chief – Al Arabiya
In an interview with Al Arabiya English, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak played down the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s bottom line, pointing to the IMF’s 3.2 percent growth projections for 2024 and pointing out that Western countries are still importing Russian goods.
“I definitely do not believe that this is a war economy,” Novak said, adding that Russia’s economy is a “supply kind of economy” being developed to meet all needs, including social ones.
6. Russia, China Wrangle With U.S. Over UN Resolution On Gaza Ceasefire Plan – Reuters
Russia and China, which hold veto powers in the UN Security Council, raised concerns with a U.S. draft resolution that would back a proposal – outlined by President Joe Biden – for a ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian militants Hamas.
Diplomats said Algeria, the council’s only Arab member, also signaled it was not ready to back the text. To pass, a resolution needs at least nine votes in favor and no vetoes by the U.S., France, Britain, China, or Russia.
The U.S. is seeking international support for the plan that Hamas is still studying.
7. U.S. Urges China To Attend Peace Summit On Ukraine – Reuters
The spokesperson said China had attended previous summits and “their presence was helpful. We think their presence would be helpful here.”
Beijing, which has close ties with Moscow, has so far said it will stay away from the June 15-16 summit, saying the attendance of both sides is a prerequisite for any substantive peace conference. Russia has not been invited. Kyiv says more than 100 countries have accepted its invitation to the summit, which Moscow has said will be meaningless without Russia.
8. Ukraine Seeks Damages From Russia For Nova Kakhovka Dam Sabotage – Reuters
Ukraine’s hydroelectric company, Ukrhydroenerho, said it had initiated international arbitration to seek damages for Russia’s destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam and power station in June 2023.
The state-run company estimated the damage at 2.5 billion euros ($2.7 billion). Russia captured the Nova Kakhovka dam at the start of the invasion. Kyiv has blamed Russian forces for blowing it up on the night of June 6, 2023, flooding swathes of arable land and hundreds of houses, leaving hundreds of thousands of people without drinking water, and depriving the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant of water needed to cool its reactors.
9. Russia Arrests French Citizen Accused Of Spying – D.W.
A Swiss NGO, the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue (HD), confirmed that an adviser of theirs, Laurent Vinatier, had been detained.
Russia announced that the French citizen had been arrested in Moscow and accused of collecting military information and failing to register as a “foreign agent.” Russia has previously used arrests made under the “foreign agents” law as a precursor to leveling more serious charges.
10. “Taiwan Is An Inalienable Part Of China”: Chinese Embassy In India – ANI
The embassy’s spokesperson further emphasized that the one-China is a universally recognized norm in international relations and a prevailing consensus in the international community.
Taiwan has considered India a critical partner under its ‘New Southbound Policy,’ and both countries have also signed a migration agreement to allow Indian workers to be employed in Taiwanese industries.
11. OPEC+ Rejects Bearish Reaction To Output Increase – Bloomberg
OPEC+ ministers rejected oil’s bearish reaction to its decision to gradually boost crude production from October and predicted the market will eventually see that the group’s policy is correct.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on Sunday to gradually wind down about 2 million barrels a day of production cuts starting in October. Since then, crude prices have fallen more than 3 percent in London, dipping below $80 a barrel as analysts question whether the market can absorb this extra supply.
12. Toyota, Mazda Halt Production Of 5 Models Amid Certification Scandal – Kyodo News
The move comes after the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Tourism ordered the halting of shipments of Toyota’s Corolla Fielder, Corolla Axio, and Yaris Cross, as well as Mazda’s Roadster RF and Mazda2.
The ministry said their vehicle certification tests were carried out in ways that did not comply with government specifications. Earlier this week, Honda Motor Co., Suzuki Motor Corp., and motorbike maker Yamaha Motor Co. also admitted to cheating on vehicle tests to obtain mass production certification, sparking widespread doubts over their products’ reliability.
13. IEA: Clean Energy Investment To Reach $2 Trillion In 2024 – D.W.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global investment in clean energy will reach $2 trillion this year, twice the amount invested in fossil fuels.
Clean technologies include renewables, electric vehicles, nuclear power, grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, efficiency improvements, and heat pumps. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), more money is being invested in solar power than in all other sources of electricity combined.
14. Sensational Upset Awakens USA From 100-Year Cricketing Hibernation – BBC
USA, the co-hosts of the T20 World Cup, stunned former champions Pakistan in Texas in a super-over showpiece for the ages.
This could prove to be a game that changes the sport as we know it stateside, which is home to one of the world’s newest and most glamourous T20 franchise leagues, Major League Cricket, and where the sport will make its reappearance at the Olympic Games in LA in 2028.
15. High Levels Of Artificial Sweetener Xylitol May Raise Risk Of Heart Attack, Stroke – HealthDay News
Researchers say xylitol is a zero-calorie sugar alcohol commonly used in sugar-free candy, chewing gum, baked goods, and toothpaste.
High blood levels of the sweetener are associated with an increased risk of suffering a heart attack, stroke, or other heart event within three years, according to an analysis of more than 3,000 patients in the United States and Europe, researchers reported.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
