The Biden administration threatened last month to withhold military aid from Israel if the IDF launched an operation in Rafah, the last Hamas stronghold in Gaza and the believed location of most of the remaining Israeli hostages. Superficially, the threat is a misguided concern for protecting civilians, though in reality, it is an equally misguided re-election strategy. Based on data from TIPP Insights, it appears the White House’s foray into abandoning one of America’s closest allies will accomplish neither.
Last month, Israel, which sees defeating Hamas in Rafah as absolutely necessary for its safety and possibly even survival, began preliminary operations in Rafah’s outskirts. In response, the White House publicly carried out its threat to withhold weapons shipments but later quietly restored them.
The situation in Rafah is a unique result of the structure of the Gaza war: since October, Israel has defeated Hamas’s battalions in stages, starting from northern Gaza and moving south. In contrast to most armies worldwide, the IDF sacrificed the element of surprise in order to evacuate civilians out of combat zones at each stage, with many eventually ending up in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city. As a result, Rafah came to contain over a million people, fully half of Gaza’s population.
The White House claimed it was impossible to move such a large number of civilians out of harm’s way, with Vice President Kamala Harris famously saying on ABC News, “I’ve studied the maps. There’s nowhere for those folks to go.” Yet Israel did exactly that: moving some one million people out of Rafah and into “humanitarian islands” established by the IDF throughout Gaza, where locals have access to humanitarian aid and field hospitals, many of which offer superior medical care compared to Gaza’s conventional hospitals. The “impossible” evacuation took a mere ten days. In fairness to the White House, no military in history has moved so many civilians out of a war zone, so quickly and safely. These and other strategies have helped to produce the lowest civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio in human history, nine times lower than the UN global average and far lower than US numbers in places like Iraq and Afghanistan.
Late last month, a fire in a Rafah humanitarian zone produced heartbreaking images of death and destruction, triggering the “All eyes on Rafah” social media campaign against Israel. However, as facts have come out, including intercepted cellphone conversations by Palestinians on the ground, it appears that the fire resulted not from Israeli strikes (which were over a mile away), but from a cache of flammable weapons Hamas had intentionally stored in the humanitarian zone. This misinformation is similar to the claim in October that Israel had bombed the Al Ahli hospital – it was later revealed that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror organization had carried out the bombing.
All of this begs the question: Why would the White House pursue a nonsensical and ultimately ineffective strategy of publicly breaking with its long-term ally?
Some far-left lawmakers are vocally hostile to Israel, including calls to end military support and echoing the “river to the sea” chant (widely understood as a call for Israel’s destruction). A recent survey by TIPP Insights showed that 59% of Democrats believe (erroneously) that Israel is committing genocide, a sentiment reflected in the violent anti-Israel and anti-America riots on college campuses.
Yet by catering to the far left, candidate Biden may cost himself the middle and perhaps lose more votes than he gains.
A recent TIPP poll reveals a strong association between opinions on this issue and voting behavior. 49% say this issue will have a “great deal” or “quite a bit” of influence on their vote, and 75% say that it will have at least some influence.
Support and opposition for Biden’s policy on this issue closely track party lines.
But within the all-important “independent” demographic, we analyzed those who have decided their vote and are following the Israel-Hamas war story. In this group of 208 independents in our survey sample, a solid majority—53 %—opposes the White House decision, while 47% support it. Further, of those who support Biden’s policy, 83% plan to vote for him and 17% for Trump. In contrast, 92% of those who oppose Biden’s policy plan to vote for Trump, with only 8% voting for Biden. This indicates a statistically significant association between Biden’s policy and voting decisions among independents, with Trump benefitting more among independent voters.
Candidates who “capture the middle” are historically more likely to win by large margins, such as Bill Clinton, Ronald Reagan, and John F. Kennedy. Indeed, 80% of Americans support Israel over Hamas, and mainstream lawmakers across the aisle vocally oppose Biden’s policy: Republican Senator Lindsey Graham called withholding weapons “obscene” given that Israel is “at a time of great peril,” and Democratic Congressman Ritchie Torres said:
America cannot claim that its commitment to Israel is “iron-clad” and then proceed to withhold aid from Israel.
Dissent is rare in dictatorships (which includes effectively all of the Arab world) and, therefore, not always understood. America’s enemies see dissent between allies as a sign of weakness and an opportunity to attack, while America’s allies, who are watching events in Israel closely, worry whether they can trust America with their safety and survival. Democratic Congressman Torres articulated this concern when he said:
The mixed messaging makes a mockery of our credibility as an ally. No one will take our word seriously.
Even though the White House strategy is both disconnected from realities in Gaza, and not even likely to achieve the more cynical goal of winning votes, it is not without its dangers. By emboldening America’s enemies and frightening America’s allies, President Biden’s approach to Rafah threatens to destabilize the entire world order.
Daniel Pomerantz is an expert in international law, a lecturer at Reichman and Bar Ilan Universities in Israel, and the CEO of RealityCheck, a nonprofit NGO dedicated to clarifying global conversations with verifiable data. Daniel lives in Tel Aviv, Israel and can be found on Instagram at @danielspeaksup or at www.RealityCheckResearch.org.
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Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israeli Military Says Hezbollah ‘Bringing Us To Brink Of Escalation’ – Reuters
“Hezbollah’s increasing aggression is bringing us to the brink of what could be a wider escalation, one that could have devastating consequences for Lebanon and the entire region,” an Israeli military spokesperson said.
Iran-backed Hezbollah last week launched the largest volleys of rockets and drones, yet in eight months, it has been exchanging fire with the Israeli military in parallel with the Gaza war.
2. Biden Adviser To Arrive In Israel In Bid To Prevent Further Escalation With Hezbollah – The Times Of Israel
Amos Hochstein will advance efforts to avoid further escalation along the “Blue Line” between Israel and Lebanon, said a White House official, who did not wish to be identified.
CBS News reported last week that U.S. officials were increasingly concerned that an all-out war could break out after over eight months of skirmishes since Hezbollah began attacking Israel in October in support of Hamas in Gaza.
3. Territorial Integrity Of Ukraine Basis Of Any Peace, Countries Agree At Swiss Summit – A.P.
Eighty countries jointly called for the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine to be the basis for any peace agreement to end Russia’s two-year war. However, some key developing nations at a Swiss conference did not join.
Participants India, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates—which were represented by foreign ministers or lower-level envoys—were among those who did not sign the final document, which focused on issues of nuclear safety, food security, and the exchange of prisoners.
4. Russia’s War On Ukraine Could Drag On For Years – RFE/RL
Russia expert Mark Galeotti – a political analyst, author, and honorary professor – said in an interview that Russia’s war against Ukraine could drag out for a few more years, with neither side strong enough to defeat the other.
Galetotti says that while Russian President Vladimir Putin has put his country on a war footing, Ukraine’s Western partners have not done the same.
5. ‘Elimination’ Of Taiwan Is China’s Great National Cause, Lai Says – Al Jazeera
China views Taiwan’s “annexation” and “elimination” as its great national cause, Taiwan’s President William Lai Ching-te said, telling cadets at the military’s premier academy they must know their enemy and not give in to defeatism.
In a speech, Lai said only Taiwan’s people can decide their future and has repeatedly offered talks with Beijing but has been rebuffed. Since assuming office last month, Beijing has branded Lai as a “separatist.”
6. Illegal Chinese Fishing Off East Africa Hurts Local Communities: Report – RFA
Environmental Justice Foundation, a London-based environmental group, said government-backed Chinese distance trawler fleets scoop up massive amounts of fish in a short space of time, depleting stocks, interrupting breeding cycles, and polluting the coastlines of Tanzania, Kenya, Mozambique, and Madagascar.
According to organizations monitoring the issue in recent years, China’s vast fishing fleets, which cast their nets as far away as Latin America, West Africa, and even Antarctica, have been adding to the strain on worldwide fishing stocks.
7. China Says One Of Its Ships Bumped By Philippine Vessel In South China Sea – Reuters
A Philippine supply ship dangerously approached a Chinese ship, resulting in a slight collision after it illegally intruded into waters adjacent to the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, the Chinese coast guard said.
The Philippine transport and replenishment ship ignored China’s repeated solemn warnings, the Coast Guard said in a statement.
For months, China and the Philippines have traded accusations over dangerous maneuvers and collisions at the Second Thomas Shoal, an atoll in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
8. China Seeks Detention Of Foreigners In Disputed South China Sea – Al Jazeera
New maritime rules issued by China that allow its coast guard to detain foreigners for trespassing in the disputed South China Sea have taken effect, but neighboring countries are questioning their international legitimacy.
China claims almost the entirety of the South China Sea, brushing aside competing claims from several Southeast Asian countries, including the Philippines, and a 2016 ruling by an arbitration tribunal in The Hague, which declared that its stance had no legal basis.
9. Nuclear Warheads Being Kept Operational Worldwide: Watchdog – IANS
Nuclear weapons states are strengthening their nuclear arsenals in the face of numerous conflicts worldwide, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a leading Swedish think tank on conflict and defense said.
According to a new report published by SIPRI, the number of operational nuclear warheads is steadily rising. Of the estimated 12,121 warheads recorded worldwide in January, around 9,585 were part of military stockpiles for potential use.
11. Honduras To Build 20,000-Inmate ‘Megaprison’ As Part Of Gang Crackdown – Al Jazeera
President Xiomara Castro says new measures, including ‘terrorist’ designations for gang members, are in response to public complaints about rising violence.
Honduras declared a state of emergency in December 2022, suspending parts of the constitution as it sought to crack down on a rise in crime it attributed to gangs. Last year, the country’s homicide rate stood at 34 per 100,000 inhabitants, almost six times the global average.
11. U.S. Expert Predicts The Next Pandemic Will Be From Bird Flu: ”Just A Matter Of Time” – NDTV
Former Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield predicted while speaking with a news channel to discuss the growing concern for bird flu as the virus continues to spread across cow herds in the U.S.
”I think it’s very likely that we will, at some time; it’s not a question of if, it’s more of a question of when we will have a bird flu pandemic,” Mr Redfield said.
While the mortality rate for COVID-19 was 0.6 percent, Mr Redfield said the mortality rate for bird flu would probably be ”somewhere between 25 and 50 percent.”
12. Kids’ Worries Often Behind Bedtime Battles, National Survey Shows – UPI Health
A new national poll reports that one in four parents reported that their child couldn’t drift off to sleep because they were distressed. According to the poll, these families are less likely to have a bedtime routine.
Instead of remaining in the child’s room, parents can check in every few minutes. This approach acknowledges a youngster’s fears and offers a reassuring presence while promoting sleep independence, poll co-director Sarah Clark said. Electronics, including tablets and televisions, should be kept out of a child’s bedroom because blue light interferes with the production of the natural sleep hormone melatonin, Clark added.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
