Chinese state media reported two weeks ago that former Defense Minister Li Shangfu, dismissed last year, and his predecessor have been expelled from the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). According to the official news agency Xinhua, Mr. Li’s and his predecessor Wei Fenghe’s cases of these two former defense ministers have been referred to military prosecutors. If the disgraced ministers are found guilty, which they are most likely to be, they could face life in prison.
The party’s powerful Politburo of senior leaders reviewed Li’s status and found that he had “betrayed his original mission and lost his party spirit and principles.” In addition to suspicion of bribery, they allege that the former general “seriously polluted the political environment and industrial ethos in the field of military equipment, and caused great damage to the party’s cause, national defense and the construction of the armed forces.”
Military investigations are often shrouded in secrecy to protect national interests. Given the opacity of countries like China, it is unlikely that the world will ever know the truth behind the sacking and whatever is set to follow. The fight against corruption and the purging of corrupt officers and officials from various branches of the administration has been one of the highlights of President Xi Jinping’s three terms in office. But critics allege that under the guise of eradicating corruption, the President is getting rid of those “not loyal enough.”
China has sacked many high-ranking military officials in the past few months, including four generals from the military’s rocket force. According to Ou Si-fu, a division director at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, Taiwan’s top military think tank, the top brass of the Chinese armed forces that fell prey to the anti-graft probe lists, among others, “two generals who oversaw satellite launches and manned space missions; an admiral who helped entrench Beijing’s presence in the disputed South China Sea; and a missile commander who had honed China’s ability to respond to a possible nuclear war.”
Corruption in the Chinese army is said to be rampant and, if left unchecked, could thwart President Xi’s ambitious plans to mold a “world-class” fighting force by the 2030s. On the one hand, he is purging dishonest and disloyal men in uniform while upgrading China’s military arsenal to compete with the best in the world.
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s (SIPRI) annual report reveals that China’s military stockpile increased from 410 nuclear warheads last year to 500 as of January 2024. Analysts and Pentagon officials believe Beijing is “on track to exceed previous projections.” According to the US Department of Defense, China is likely to possess more than 1,000 operable nuclear weapons by 2030. In another decade, by the time President Xi’s armed forces are expected to be fully modernized, the country is predicted to have a stockpile of 1500 nuclear warheads.
Despite these augmented numbers, China would still possess only about a fifth of the current inventories held by the US and Russia, which are reported to have over 5,000 warheads. But, President Xi’s nuclear amassment and the ongoing wars negate a global downward trend that has prevailed since the end of the Cold War.
The SIPRI cites the “negative impact” the Russian invasion of Ukraine having on nuclear arms control talks, writing that the war has “diminished opportunities to break the long-standing deadlock in nuclear arms control and reverse the worrisome trend of nuclear-armed states developing and deploying new weapon systems.”
The Chinese military modernization is seen as a two-pronged strategy. The larger stockpile is intended to enforce credible deterrence against nuclear-armed foes both nearby (India) and far (the US). It is believed that President Xi and his administration also view an impressive arsenal as a means to enhance China’s global standing. The armory stocked with modern weapons is seen as Beijing’s way of ensuring that China is respected and treated as “an equally powerful country.”
Heightened geopolitical tensions, far and near, are prompting countries to reassess their military capabilities and address shortfalls. China, under President Xi, aims to stay ahead of the curve. In his bid to “restore China to its rightful place” on the world stage, modern nuclear weaponry is just one more tool in President Xi’s arsenal.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Senior Hamas Official Says No Progress Made In Ceasefire Talks With Israel – Euronews
Speaking at a press conference in the Lebanese capital, Beirut, Osama Hamdan said the group is prepared to “deal positively” with any ceasefire proposal that ends the fighting.
Hamas says any deal must include the full withdrawal of the Israeli military from Gaza, but Israel has only agreed in principle to temporary pauses in fighting until Hamas is completely eradicated.
Hamdan also laid some of the blame on Washington, accusing officials there of pressuring the group to accept Israel’s conditions.
2. U.S. Offers Hamas Chance To Amend Gaza Cease-Fire Proposal Backed By Israel In Hopes Of Compromise – Haaretz
The Biden administration has been working on a new cease-fire proposal in the hopes of getting Hamas to reconsider its opposition to the offer recently backed by Israel.
Over the past few days, the U.S. has offered the organization the opportunity to amend the proposed deal announced by President Joe Biden last month. However, sources familiar with the negotiations say there has been no breakthrough.
3. U.S. Officials Concerned Israeli Offensive On Hezbollah Could Drag In Russia – Middle East Eye
The fears of what current and former U.S. officials described as “secondary” and “tertiary” effects of an Israeli ground attack on Hezbollah are being driven by U.S. intelligence that claims Russia is considering stepping up its support for Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance.
U.S. intelligence claims Russian President Vladimir Putin asked Saudi Arabia permission to arm Yemen’s Houthis with cruise missiles.
4. Saudi Arabia Condemns Israeli Approval Of West Bank Settlement Expansion – Al Arabiya
Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Ministry condemned the Israeli security cabinet’s approval to expand settlement operations in the West Bank.
In a statement carried by the state news agency SPA, the ministry affirmed the Kingdom’s rejection of what it described as the “ongoing Israeli violations of international law and international legitimacy resolutions”. It warned of the “dire consequences” of Israel’s actions.
5. IMF Downgrades Ukraine’s Growth Outlook, OKs $2.2 Billion Under Loan Program – AFP
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Ukraine’s economy to grow by 2.5 percent and 3.5 percent this year and reach 5.5 percent in 2025, down sharply from the earlier projection of 6.5 percent.
The international lender’s executive board also voted to approve a $2.2 billion payout for Ukraine under an existing loan program. The IMF said the funds bring the total amount disbursed under the loan agreement to around $7.6 billion.
6. China Says Rare Earth Belongs to State In New Regulation – Nikkei Asia
China’s rare-earth resources belong to the state, the government said in a new regulation that will take effect Oct. 1.
“No organization or individual may encroach upon or destroy rare-earth resources,” according to the text of the regulation published Saturday, which says it aims to “ensure national resource security and industrial security.” According to the U.S. Geological Survey, China accounts for about 70% of global production of rare earths.
7. Iran Warns Israel Of ‘Obliterating’ War If It Attacks Lebanon – AFP
Iran warned that “all Resistance Fronts,” a grouping of Iran and its regional allies, would confront Israel if it attacked Lebanon.
In a post on social media platform X, Iran’s mission to New York said, “Should it embark on full-scale military aggression, an obliterating war will ensue. All options, incl. the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table.”
8. Khamenei Protege, Sole Moderate To Battle In Iran’s Presidential Run-Off – Reuters
A moderate lawmaker will face Iran’s supreme leader’s protege in a run-off presidential election on July 5 after the country’s interior ministry said that no candidate secured enough votes in the first round of voting.
Friday’s vote was a close race between low-profile lawmaker Massoud Pezeshkian, the sole moderate in a field of four candidates, and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) member Saeed Jalili.
9. EU Signs €1bn Financing Deal For Egypt At Investment Forum – D.W.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a €42 billion ($45 billion) investment by European companies in Egypt and cash from Brussels to help the country’s troubled economy.
The EU chief said the two partners would continue to collaborate in sectors such as trade, energy, water, migration, skills, and mobility.
Human rights groups have criticized the deals, saying Egypt’s government does not respect the rule of law.
10. Polls Show French Far-Right Party With Big Lead Ahead Of Sunday Election – UPI
According to polling and market research firm IFOP, France’s far-right National Rally party, led by Marine Le Pen, is projected to capture 36% of the popular vote.
If Le Pen’s National Rally wins, it would mark the first far-right government since the Nazis occupied France during World War II. The first of two rounds of voting in the French election takes place Sunday, with the second round set for July 7.
11. Australia To Dominate Lithium Supply For ‘Years To Come’ But Prices Subdued – Nikkei Asia
A recent analysis suggests that despite robust demand, lithium prices will not return to their previous highs anytime soon due to an influx of new producers and persistent oversupply.
Australia will remain the top global source of the metal—a vital ingredient in electric vehicle batteries—over the next several years, according to a report from commodities research firm Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. However, due to a “rapidly expanding global supply,” the overall market will remain in oversupply until 2030.
12. North Korea’s State Media Says There Is ‘Important News,’ Does Not Give Details – Reuters
North Korea’s state news agency said there was “important news” in a one-line dispatch but did not provide details.
Leader Kim Jong Un is presided over a key meeting of the ruling party to review its performance in the first half of the year.
13. Bird Flu Virus On Cow Milking Equipment Poses Infection Risk – HealthDay News
A new study finds the H5N1 virus stays viable on milking equipment for at least an hour and can “potentially infect farm workers or spread from animal to animal.”
The study team believes the findings underscore the need for dairy workers to wear personal protective equipment (PPE) to reduce their infection odds.
So far, three known cases of human H5N1 infection have been linked to the current outbreak in dairy cows. All three cases occurred among dairy workers with long and close exposures to infected animals.
14. Kentucky To Accept Medical Marijuana Dispensary Applications – UPI Health
The state plans to issue 48 dispensary licenses, which require owners to pay a $15,000 annual renewal fee. The facilities must be at least 1,000 feet away from a school or daycare.
Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear issued an executive order in 2022 that allowed Kentuckians who need medical marijuana to have and use eight or fewer ounces of medical marijuana if it’s legally purchased in another state.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
