Can Kamala Harris’s rising favorability among Democrats translate into broader electoral success? According to the latest TIPP Poll of 1,488 Americans completed last Friday, Harris outshines President Biden on all key election issues. However, this advantage is limited to Democrats, as independents remain unconvinced.
Following his forced exit from the race, President Biden’s job approval rating remains at 37% in August, unchanged from early July.
Since Harris was anointed by President Biden and the Democratic leadership, skirting the primary process, the American media has been portraying her favorably. They have yet to examine her record. Regardless of whether it’s the honeymoon bounce or a relief rally, she surpasses Biden on all metrics.
Moreover, the bounce comes primarily from disillusioned Democrats who had exited or were on the verge of exiting but are now returning to the Democratic fold. It does not impact independents, a key voting bloc.
The data reveals a stark truth: adopting the Biden Basement strategy or simply running out the clock is a risky move. Can cloaking her policy positions really help Harris expand her voter base? The numbers suggest otherwise.
Further, the data illustrates the difficulty of decoupling her candidacy from Biden’s failed presidency in the next 90 days. They are two peas in a pod.
Favorability
Interestingly, Americans see Harris more favorably than Biden by a margin of 42% to 38%, resulting in a net favorability of -4% for Harris, starkly contrasting Biden’s -17%.
By party, Harris beats Biden 84% to 75% among Democrats. Both share low favorability ratings among independents (Biden 26%, Harris 31%).
Job Approval
Regarding job approval, Harris’s job approval as the VP is 41% compared to Biden’s 37%, resulting in a net approval of -5 points for Harris, a significant difference from Biden’s -18 points.
Eight in ten (82%) Democrats approve of her job performance, compared to 72% for Biden. Interestingly, she is doing only slightly better among independents, 28% to 25%.
Issues
President Biden’s grades on different issues continue to be poor. Notice the following in the chart below:
- Biden gets good grades (A or B) from fewer than 30% on all issues.
- On six issues, one-half or more give him failing grades (D or F)
- He flunks miserably on the three top issues for Americans: Economy (29% good, 54% poor), immigration (23% good, 56% poor), and crime (25% good, 53% poor)
We evaluated Harris’s performance on key election issues: the economy, immigration, and crime. Here’s how she fares:
- On the economy, 34% of Americans give her good grades, but 43% rate her poorly.
- Regarding immigration, 30% approve of her performance, while 48% disapprove.
- On crime, 32% commend her efforts, whereas 46% grade her harshly.
Economy
The chart below compares the share of Americans giving good grades (A or B) to Biden and Harris for their efforts related to the economy.
- Overall, Harris does better by six points (34% to 28%).
- Most of her good ratings come from Democrats (69% compared to Biden’s 55%).
- She does only slightly better among independents, by three points (23% to 20%).
Immigration
The media is debating whether Biden assigned her the responsibility of managing the border as the border czar, possibly with the ulterior motive of distancing her candidacy from the border situation. However, the data shows that this debate is moot since only a small share of Americans give both Biden (23%) and Harris (30%) good grades.
Given her status as the Party nominee, it’s no surprise that Democrats view her more favorably than Biden (60% to 47%). This ‘honeymoon effect’ boosts her ratings among Democrats but fails to significantly sway independents, highlighting a critical challenge for her campaign.
Crime
On the critical issue of fighting crime, Harris receives positive grades from 33% of Americans for her work, compared to Biden’s 25%. Again, 65% of Democrats give her better grades than 49% for Biden. Notice that both Biden and Harris perform poorly among independents, with only a 5-point difference (Biden 16%, Harris 21%).
Overall Performance
Nearly four in ten (37%) give good grades for Harris’s performance as VP compared to 30% for Biden as President.
Three-fourths of Democrats (74%) see her in a positive light, compared to Biden’s 59%. Interestingly, 26% of Democrats don’t see her positively or are unsure, which is a weakness for Harris.
Independents view both Biden and Harris similarly—Harris (25%) and Biden (21%).
President Biden’s job approval rating remains steady at 37%, underscoring his ongoing struggles. While Kamala Harris outperforms him on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, her appeal is largely confined to Democrats. Despite media efforts to bolster her image as the new Democratic nominee, she continues to struggle with independents. To secure the White House, Harris must broaden her appeal beyond the Democratic base. Will she rise to the challenge or falter in the face of mounting pressure?
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Hamas Names Oct. 7 Attack Mastermind Yahya Sinwar As New Leader – UPI
Hamas announced it has chosen Yahya Sinwar, the Palestinian militant group’s local leader in Gaza and one of the alleged planners of the Oct. 7 terror attack on Israel, to take over as its new political leader following last week’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran.
Sinwar was elected to lead the terrorist organization via secret ballot by Hamas’ 50-member council in Gaza, the West Bank, and abroad.
2. Israel Calls To “Swiftly Eliminate” New Hamas Chief – AFP
“The appointment of arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar as the new leader of Hamas, replacing Ismail Haniyeh, is yet another compelling reason to swiftly eliminate him and wipe this vile organization off the face of the Earth,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz said in a statement on social media site X.
3. Nasrallah Says Hezbollah, Iran ‘Obliged To Respond’ To Israel – AFP
Hezbollah’s chief said his group and Iran were “obliged to respond” to Israel “whatever the consequences” after the killings last week of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Hezbollah will retaliate “alone or in the context of a unified response from all the axis” of Iran-backed groups in the region, “whatever the consequences,” Hassan Nasrallah said in a televised address.
4. Putin Asks Iran To Avoid Civilian Casualties In Israel Response, Sources Say – Reuters
Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Iran’s Supreme leader Ali Khamenei for a restrained response to Israel’s suspected killing of the leader of Hamas, advising against attacks on Israeli civilians, two senior Iranian sources said.
The message, according to the sources, was delivered by Sergei Shoigu, a senior ally of the Kremlin leader, in meetings with top Iranian officials as the Islamic Republic weighs its response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
5. European Council Green-Lights $4.59 Billion For Ukraine – UPI
The European Council approved $4.59 billion in funds for Ukraine to support its “macro-financial stability” as Kyiv continues to fight against the current Russian invasion.
The council said the funds should be allocated “as soon as possible” because of Ukraine’s “difficult fiscal situation.” Ukraine, which has been trying to qualify to enter the European Union, will be required to make reforms covering its government’s financial management, state-owned enterprises, business environment, and demining.
6. Russia Says Hundreds Of Ukrainian Troops Attacked Border Region Of Kursk – RFE/RL
The Russian ministry said up to 300 fighters from Ukraine’s 22nd Mechanized Brigade, supported by 11 tanks and more than 20 armored fighting vehicles, attacked the positions of Russian units in the Kursk region, which borders on the Sumy region of northeastern Ukraine.
Russian media quoted the Federal Security Service (FSB) as saying that Russian forces had dealt with an armed “provocation” by Ukraine.
7. China Wants People To Eat Out And Take In More Trips And Shows – RFA
China has set out plans to get the country’s 1.4 billion people to spend more on eating out, tourism, and entertainment in a last-ditch bid to rescue its flagging economy.
The country’s cabinet, the State Council, said in a directive published on its official website that governments across the country must take action to boost private spending on tourism, cultural attractions, and eating out through promotional deals, local festivals, and high-end restaurants.
8. China Launches First Satellites Of Constellation To Rival Starlink, State Media Says – Reuters
State broadcaster CCTV reported that a Chinese state-owned enterprise successfully placed 18 satellites into orbit. China is seeking to create its own version of U.S. firm SpaceX’s Starlink network.
The state-backed plan is one of China’s answers to Starlink, SpaceX’s growing commercial broadband constellation that has about 5,500 LEO satellites in space and will provide near-global internet access to consumers, companies, and government agencies.
9. HP Plans Its Most Aggressive Shift Of Production Away From China – Nikkei Asia
Nikkei Asia has learned that HP is looking to shift more than half of its personal computer production away from China and is setting up a “backup” design hub in Singapore in an attempt to reduce geopolitical risks around China and Taiwan.
The plans represent the most aggressive move yet by America’s leading PC maker to diversify its supply chains away from Asia’s biggest economy.
10. North Korea Denounces Germany For Joining U.N. Command – Yonhap
North Korea criticized Germany for its recent entry into the United States-led U.N. Command (UNC), calling it an act of ruining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula, its state media said.
On Friday, Germany formally joined the multinational mechanism overseeing the armistice of the 1950-53 Korean War as the 18th official member state.
The North claimed that Washington was attempting to revive the command’s function “which should have been extinct in the last century” in a move toward the Asian version of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization to deter the North and its neighboring countries.
11. Nobel Peace Prize Winner To Lead Bangladesh Interim Government – BBC
Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus – a longtime political foe of Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister, Sheikh Hasina – has been named the country’s interim leader.
While Prof Yunus has been lauded for his pioneering use of microloans, Ms Hasina regarded him as a public enemy. He is currently on bail, appealing a six-month jail term in what he has described as a politically motivated case.
12. Wildfire Smoke Might Have Harmful Effect On Surgical Patients – HealthDay News
Inhaling the smoke could complicate the effects of anesthesia on surgical patients, and it also might hamper their recovery, researchers reported in the journal Anesthesiology.
Wildfire smoke contains a complex mix of fine particles and chemicals that, when inhaled, enter the circulatory system. Researchers have said that as a result, organs like the heart and lungs can be damaged.
Exposure to such particle pollution also increases the risk of heart attack, heart rhythm problems, heart failure, and stroke, they noted.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
