Can a joyous presidential campaign by Kamala Harris alleviate Americans’ financial stress? Memo to the media: Absolutely not.
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Financial Stress Index, the only monthly metric tracking Americans’ financial stress, reached an eight-month high of 67.6, marking the highest reading for 2024.
The Index accurately indicates Americans’ financial concerns about paying bills and making ends meet. Consumer spending drives two-thirds of the economy, and when people are financially stressed, they are hesitant to spend money.
Of the 35 demographic categories we monitor, a staggering 26 (75%) are currently grappling with heightened stress levels, which are a significant 10% above their historical averages. The data shows that financial stress is a pervasive problem affecting all demographics.
Regrettably, the media’s focus seems elsewhere, with scant coverage of this dire scenario. Instead, they are preoccupied with portraying a rosy picture of the current administration.
We can’t believe it—while 24% of Americans are skipping meals because they can’t afford them due to high food prices, here are the headlines we’re seeing instead:
- Harris Used to Worry About Laughing. Now Joy Is Fueling Her Campaign – *New York Times*
- Harris and Walz seize on joyful message in contrast to darker Trump themes – Washington Post
- Pramila Jayapal: ‘Radical Joy’ Is Centered In Kamala Harris Campaign – Forbes
TIPP began tracking financial stress in December 2007. The average financial stress under President Bush, from December 2007 to January 2009, was 67.8.
Objectively speaking, President Biden has been the worst president in terms of financial stress, with an average of 65.8 over 43 months, compared to 54.4 under Trump and 59.4 under Obama.
Financial stress is not just a number on a chart. It can lead to serious health issues such as insomnia, weight gain or loss, depression, anxiety, relationship difficulties, social withdrawal, and physical ailments such as headaches, gastrointestinal problems, diabetes, high blood pressure, and heart disease.
We computed the stress index from responses to the questions: Thinking of your personal finances, compared to the past three months, do you feel more stressed these days, less stressed these days, or feel the same level of stress?
The Index ranges from 0 to 100; the higher the number, the more stress. A reading of 50.0 is the neutral point.
On a concerning note, the August reading of the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Financial Stress Index is 67.6, greater than the three-month moving average of 66.6, reflecting acceleration. Persistent Bidenflation, layoffs, and job insecurity exacerbate financial stress.
The chart below shows that financial stress impacts all Americans, irrespective of their party affiliation. Republicans (73.2) have the highest stress levels, while Democrats’ stress level is 12.0 points lower (61.2). Independents’ stress level is between the two at 68.5, 0.9 points higher than the overall 67.6.
By The Numbers
The table below shows the Index’s historical averages, the August readings, and the differences across demographic groups. All 35 demographic groups exhibit stress, with readings above the neutral level of 50.0. Of the 35 demographic categories, 26 (74%) experience stress, 10% higher than their historical average.
Here are the ten demographic groups with the highest stress levels, based on the average over eight months of 2024. Conservatives, Republicans, and white women are the most stressed groups, followed by those under $30K households.
The chart below shows the ten demographic groups with the least stress based on the average over the eight months of 2024. The groups experiencing the least stress are Northeast, moderates, those with college degrees or more, followed by households with an income of $75K or more.
Cause Of Stress
Most Americans are stressed because their wages have not kept pace with price increases.
Under President Biden, real wages have declined by 1.8%. According to government data, average hourly earnings for all employees dropped 1.8% to $11.18 in June 2024 from $11.39 in January 2021 when Biden took office. Nominal wages represent the amount of money one earns without considering changes in the cost of living. On the other hand, real wages consider inflation and measure the purchasing power of wages.
In the latest TIPP Poll completed in early August, only 20% of Americans say their earnings have kept pace with inflation.
Americans are increasingly turning to credit card debt to make up the shortfall. According to TransUnion, the average balance per consumer is $6,329, a 4.8% yearly increase. On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that Americans now owe a record $1.14 trillion on their credit cards.
Financial Hardships Hit Lower-Income Households Hardest
In the current economy, Americans struggle to make ends meet. The chart below describes their struggles: More households in the lower income bracket face hardships than higher-income households. For example, 70% of households with under-$30K income are concerned about paying their utility bills compared to 61% for $30K-$50K, 59% for $50K-$75K, and 47% for $75K.
Diverse Strategies To Manage Higher Food Costs
Americans are struggling to adjust to higher food costs. The chart below reveals some shocking statistics.
- 58% are dining out less
- 54% are buying store brands more often
- 45% are cutting down on high-ticket items (i.e., meats)
- 39% are shopping at bargain stores
- 31% are eating less (portion sizes)
- 24% are skipping meals
- 22% go to food banks to supplement groceries
- 22% have applied for federal or state assistance
- 15% are growing vegetables
Biden’s Handling Of The Economy
In the latest TIPP Poll taken in early August, most Americans (54%) give Biden a failing grade (D or F) on his handling of the economy. Only 29% give him an A or B.
Among Democrats, half (55%) give him positive grades, 19% believe he deserves failing grades, and another 24% rate his performance as average (C).
In contrast, Republicans are much more critical, with 84% expressing dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy.
Meanwhile, independents also express their disappointment, with 63% giving failing grades, 20% giving good grades, and 13% rating Biden’s performance as average.
The recent manufacturing data reflect that the economy will likely slow down. Combined with unyielding inflation powered by Biden’s wasteful spending, inflation will likely persist for the foreseeable future. Americans must brace for an extended period of stagflation. We don’t enjoy being the bearers of bad news. However, we would rather not sugarcoat the situation or find scapegoats.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. U.S. Tells Israel That Escalations In Middle East Serve No One – Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in a phone call that the escalation of tensions in the Middle East was “in no party’s interest” while also stressing the need for a Gaza ceasefire, the State Department said.
Blinken stressed the “urgent need to reach a ceasefire in Gaza” that could release hostages held in the enclave and “create the conditions for broader regional stability,” the State Department added.
2. Iran Commander Says Israel ‘Punishment’ Will Be Carried Out In ‘Best Possible Way’ – Al Arabiya
The orders of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to “punish” Israel for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran will be executed “in the best possible way,” a top Iranian military commander said.
The Middle East has been on high alert since last week’s assassinations of top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran and its regional proxies, including Lebanese Hezbollah, have blamed Israel for these attacks and vowed to retaliate.
Israel confirmed it was behind the strike on Shukr but has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s killing.
3. Iranian Guards Navy Has New Highly Explosive Missiles: Report – Reuters
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards said that its navy has new cruise missiles equipped with highly explosive warheads that are undetectable, state media reported.
The announcement by the country’s most powerful security organization coincides with fears of a full-blown Middle East war after Iran vowed to avenge the assassination in Tehran on July 31 of Ismail Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian group Hamas.
4. U.S. Troops Attacked In Syria, No Initial Reports Of Injuries: Official – Reuters
The attack took place at Rumalyn Landing Zone, which hosts U.S. troops along with those from the U.S.-led coalition.
This is the second attack in recent days against U.S. forces in the Middle East as the region braces for a possible new wave of attacks by Iran and its allies.
5. Dozens Reportedly Killed In Israeli Strike On Gaza – BBC
Gaza’s Hamas-controlled civil defense agency says dozens of people have been killed in an Israeli air strike on a shelter in a school in Gaza City.
Israel’s military said it had struck the location on Saturday, describing its target as a Hamas command center embedded in the school. According to Gaza’s civil defense agency, the strike in the Daraj district killed at least 90 people and injured dozens more.
6. Iran To Deliver Hundreds Of Ballistic Missiles To Russia Soon, Intel Sources Say – Reuters
Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources said, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
Moscow possesses its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said.
7. U.S. Tightens Sanctions On Belarus, Lukashenko Regime – UPI
The U.S. Treasury Department said that, in the wake of the fraudulent August 2020 presidential election, Lukashenko “resorted to brutal crackdowns on peaceful protesters, democratic organizations, and journalists to illegitimately retain power.”
The Lukashenko regime, Treasury officials said, continues to support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine by hosting Russian military bases and allowing Russian forces to stage military operations from Belarus.
8. China Appeals To WTO Over European Tariffs On Electric Cars – D.W.
It comes after the European Union applied extra duties on EVs made in China and accused Chinese automakers of flooding the market.
“The EU’s preliminary ruling lacks a factual and legal basis, seriously violates WTO rules, and undermines the overall situation of global cooperation in addressing climate change,” a spokesperson for China’s Commerce Industry said.
In July, the EU applied extra duties of up to 38% on electric cars made in China.
9. Myanmar, China Hold Peace Talks – AFP
China’s special envoy met Myanmar’s junta chief for talks on “peace and stability” along their shared border, Myanmar state media reported, days after ethnic rebels seized a regional military command.
Myanmar’s northern Shan state has been the site of repeated clashes since late June after ethnic rebel groups renewed an offensive against the military along a vital trade highway to China.
China is a major ally and arms supplier to the junta, but analysts say it also maintains ties with armed ethnic groups in Myanmar that hold territory near its border.
10. Chinese Satellite Launch Rocket Breaks Into Hundred Of Pieces In Orbit – UPI
As confirmed by U.S. Space Command, a Chinese Long March 6A rocket broke apart in low-Earth orbit and formed a debris field with hundreds of pieces.
While there’s no immediate danger, it’s possible that the fragments could eventually descend to where the space station and SpaceX’s Starlink satellites are located. The Chinese rocket was launched Tuesday carrying 18 satellites. The satellites were successfully deployed, but the rocket’s upper stage broke apart.
11. Central Banks Dump Dollars And Yuan In Favor Of Gold – Nikkei Asia
Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar and yuan while loading up their foreign exchange reserves with a “stateless currency,” gold, in a nod to intensifying geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties.
The proportion of the U.S. currency in global foreign reserves has dropped significantly from over 70% in the early 2000s. The dollar’s share of foreign reserves held by central banks and governments worldwide sits at a historic low. China’s currency is also trending lower.
12. Venezuelan Dictator Suspends Major Social Media Platform After Sparring With Elon Musk – Daily Caller
Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolas Maduro, temporarily banned X from the country on Thursday after accusing the platform’s owner, Elon Musk, of using it to stoke opposition against him.
“[Musk] violated all of the rules of the very social network Twitter, today known as X — all of them. And he has violated [the rules] by inciting hatred, fascism, civil war, death and confrontations among Venezuelans, [he] has violated all of the laws of Venezuela,” Maduro said in a televised address on Thursday. The Venezuelan government will “remove the X social network, previously known as Twitter, out of circulation in Venezuela for ten days,” Maduro said.
13. CDC: Childhood Vaccines Have Saved 1 Million U.S. Lives Since 1994 – HealthDay News
A new government report offers compelling evidence of the power of childhood vaccines. It shows that routine shots have prevented hundreds of millions of illnesses, tens of millions of hospitalizations, and more than 1 million deaths among Americans born in the past 30 years.
The new CDC study discovered that among about 117 million children born from 1994 through 2023, routine vaccinations will have prevented some 508 million cases of illness, 32 million hospitalizations, and just over 1 million deaths.
14. Study Finds More Evidence Of Common Artificial Sweetener Posing Heart Risk – HealthDay News
The new study, involving 20 healthy adult volunteers, found that at doses commonly found in an erythritol-sweetened soda or muffin, the sweetener was linked to heightened platelet activity, which could make clots more likely.
Erythritol is about 70% as sweet as sugar and is produced commercially by fermenting corn. Dr. Stanley Hazen said it’s found in many keto and zero-sugar foods and is an ingredient in some Splenda stevia sweetener products and Truvia.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
