As Election Day looms and polls tighten up, a solid majority of Americans remain unhappy with the Democratic Party’s machinations to remove President Joe Biden as its candidate and replace him with Vice President Kamala Harris. And it’s not strictly partisan. Many Democrats are also upset at how the party switched candidates, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
As Harris continues to struggle, the national online I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,240 registered voters indicates lingering widespread disappointment with the Democratic Party’s maneuvers to get rid of the age-impaired Biden last July.
The poll asked voters whether they agreed or disagreed with the following three statements:
- “The process the Democratic Party used to select its nominee for President did not yield the strongest candidate.”
- “The process the Democratic Party used to select Kamala Harris as its nominee was undemocratic.”
- “I lost significant faith in the Democratic Party because it did not disclose Biden’s health issues during the primary process.”
For the first question, 58% said they either “agree strongly” (41%) or “agree somewhat” (17%). (Numbers on all calculations might not add up exactly due to rounding). At the same time, just 32% said they disagreed.
Independents largely viewed the Dems’ moves as the Republicans did. Among indie and third-party voters, 55% agreed with the statement in No. 1 above, while about a third disagreed.
Even Democrats weren’t exactly thrilled with the move. Some 40% agreed either “somewhat” or “strongly” that Harris was not the strongest candidate the party could have had, while 52% disagreed.
The feeling of disappointment was broadly spread across all 36 of the I&I/TIPP demographic groupings, with only Democratic Party members, black voters, and self-described liberals defending Harris as the strongest possible candidate.
Meanwhile, black and Hispanic voters, often lumped together for polling purposes, showed an eye-opening disparity. Among likely voters, 55% of black voters said they felt Harris was the strongest possible candidate, while only 25% of Hispanics did, a huge 30-point difference.
The remaining two responses of the three weren’t too far different.
The second question asked voters whether voters agreed that the Democratic Party’s process for installing Harris as the party’s candidate, without a popular vote of any sort, was “undemocratic.”
Once again, an overall majority — 52% to 38% — agreed the Democrats’ process was “undemocratic.” A solid majority (71%) of Republicans agreed, along with a slim plurality of independents (45%).
But once again, more than one out of three Democrats (37%) agreed that their party process for picking a candidate was “undemocratic.”
The third and final question asked voters if they had “lost their faith” in the Democratic Party due to its failure to disclose Biden’s health issues during the primaries earlier this year.
Among all voters, 55% responded that they agree. For Republicans, those saying “agree” totaled a hefty 80%. Indies again sat in the middle, at 45%, while among Dems it was 37%.
Will the solid one-third of Democrats who remain angry with their party over how Harris became the nominee cost them the election? Will they still vote anyway, or just stay home?
The Democratic Party apparatus shows signs of deep concern with how Harris’ campaign is turning out.
In a revealing post on X titled “The Scent of a Harris Panic in the Air,” historian and columnist Victor Davis Hanson does a deep dive on all the things ailing the Harris campaign. For Dems, the picture Hanson paints can’t be comforting:
The 2024 race is still close.
But then so was the 1980 Carter-Reagan race at this same juncture. Indeed, incumbent president Carter was then comfortably up in the last two October Gallup polls — before utterly and suddenly evaporating on Election Day.
But in the last seven days, there seems a sense of panic in the Harris campaign.
How do we know that?
Why are Democratic pundits — from Axelrod to Carville — blasting the Harris campaign and otherwise warning of bad things to come?
Why are some of the once Democrat sure-thing senate races — e.g., in Ohio, Wisconsin, and even Michigan — tightening up?
Pundit poll-watchers are suggesting that Trump is close, even, or slightly ahead in the swing-state polls, suggesting that he is nearing a margin that could cancel out anticipated “ballot irregularities”.
The expected October Harris-Biden surprises—the opportune Fed interest rate cut, the transparently desperate Jack Smith beefed-up re-indictment, the current new Hollywood Trump-hit movie, the desperate Zelensky fly-in to Pennsylvania, the election-cycle customary Bob Woodward unsourced gossip book — seemed so far to have had no effect.”
Even in the mainstream media, some have taken notice of the growing issues with the Harris-Walz ticket. CNN’s Harry Enten notes that Donald Trump’s net favorability rating has risen from -27 in 2016 to -12 in 2020 to -9 today, prompting a series of sharp attacks by Harris recently against Trump.
“Look, she’s still more popular than Trump, but Joe Biden was more popular than Trump — much more — and barely won, and Hillary Clinton was more popular than Donald Trump and lost,” Enten said. “Being more popular than Trump isn’t enough. (Harris) wants to continue to see her favorability rise, but in fact, it’s going in the wrong direction at this point.”
In its most recent poll reading, the RealClearPolitics Poll Average shows Harris with 49.2% to Trump’s 48.3%, a skinny 0.9 percentage point edge, the lowest since Aug. 12.
Harris, to be blunt, hasn’t turned out to be the candidate the Democratic Party powers-that-be hoped. She had a surge in support after her debate against Trump, topping out at a 2.2 percentage point advantage on Oct. 2, but since has seen her support decline.
In the latest TIPP Tracking Poll, Trump held a two-point lead over Harris, 49% to 47%, after Harris held as much as a 4-point lead in recent weeks.
Are Democrats part of that big swing? As our own I&I/TIPP Poll strongly suggests, a third of Democrats remain upset with the quality of their party’s candidate this year — and with the fact that they had no say in making Kamala Harris their candidate in the first place.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. TIPP Tracking Poll Day 14: Frozen As Ice, Trump And Harris Deadlocked At 48%
With Election Day near, both candidates remain locked in a razor-thin tie.
2. Electoral Showdown 2024: Latest Win Probabilities – October 27
TIPP Electoral College projections using computer simulations and polling averages and betting odds as inputs.
3. Iran Says Has ‘Duty’ To Defend Itself, After Israeli Strikes – AFP
“Iran has the right and the duty to defend itself against foreign acts of aggression,” the foreign ministry said in a statement, citing Article 51 of the United Nations Charter.
Israel bombed military targets in Iran on Saturday, killing at least two soldiers, fulfilling a vow to avenge a missile barrage and stirring fears of a full-scale Middle East war. Israel warned Iran would “pay a heavy price” if it responded to the strikes, and the United States and Britain both demanded Tehran not escalate the conflict further.
4. Iran Urges UN Security Council To Call Special Session, Condemn Israel – RFE/RL
Tehran has asked Switzerland, which holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council, to call an extraordinary session to condemn Israel following its October 26 air strikes – which came in retaliation for Iranian rocket strikes earlier this month.
Amir Saeid Iravani, the Iranian envoy to the UN, claimed in a letter to the Security Council that Israel’s “unlawful and aggressive actions” were a violation of Iran’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and a “flagrant breach of international law and the UN Charter.”
5. Belarus Halts Construction Of Military Camp Near Ukraine Border – RFE/RL
The construction of a new military camp in the Homel region of Belarus, which some analysts warned could be used as an attack base targeting Ukraine, appears to have been suspended for no reason, RFE/RL has learned.
Russia used Belarus as a staging area to launch its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but Minsk says it has not allowed Belarusian forces to participate in the conflict.
6. U.S. Officials Say Russia Behind Fake Video Of Pro-Trump Votes Being Destroyed – RFE/RL
U.S. authorities have said that Russian actors were behind a fake video circulated on social media that purported to show the destruction of mail-in votes cast for Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump in the swing state of Pennsylvania ahead of the November 5 presidential election.
The video, which had millions of views on platforms such as X after appearing on social media on October 24, depicted a man sifting through ballots from Pennsylvania’s Bucks County and tearing up those cast for Trump.
7. U.S.-China Race For Lithium Leads To Controversial New Mine – Nikkei Asia
The Biden administration’s efforts to lay the groundwork for an electric vehicle supply chain that doesn’t rely on China have raised hopes around the first new American lithium mine in six decades.
Under a project approved Thursday, Australia-based Ioneer plans to mine both lithium and boron at Rhyolite Ridge in the state of Nevada. CEO Bernard Rowe called this the world’s first simultaneous large-scale production of the two minerals.
8. Talent Visa Schemes Create ‘New Hong Kongers,’ But Will They Stay? – RFA
Hong Kong’s lawmakers have been brainstorming new ways to attract and keep fresh talent in the city, including possible speed dating events, amid a mass wave of emigration.
Since the passing of its first national security law in 2020, Hong Kong’s government has been fighting to replace those who leave with talent schemes encouraging people to move to the city to live and work, with some success to date. Although the city’s population rebounded by 170,000 in 2023, suggesting the highest immigration numbers in 20 years, recent surveys have found that not everyone is planning to stay.
9. Vietnam Builds Airstrip On Reclaimed Island In South China Sea – RFA
Images provided by Earth imaging company Planet Labs show a partial runway of about 3,445 feet in length on an artificial island developed by Vietnam in the disputed Spratly archipelago.
Barque Canada Reef is one of the Vietnam-controlled Spratly islands that has undergone remarkable development since 2021. Several Vietnamese sources, who declined to be identified, said there are plans to construct more runways on Hanoi-claimed islands, maybe two or three.
10. Time Has Come For Reparations Dialogue, Commonwealth Heads Agree – BBC
Commonwealth leaders have agreed the “time has come” for a conversation about reparations for the slave trade, despite the UK’s desire to keep the subject off the agenda at a two-day summit in Samoa.
A document signed by 56 heads of government, including UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, acknowledges calls for “discussions on reparatory justice” for the “abhorrent” transatlantic slave trade. The UK has faced growing calls from Commonwealth leaders to apologize and pay reparations for the country’s historical role in the slave trade.
11. North Korea Slams Seoul-Washington Joint Air Exercise – Yonhap
The Freedom Flag exercise kicked off this week and will run through next Friday. The air forces of South Korea, the U.S., and Australia are participating.
In a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, an official at the North’s foreign ministry said the Freedom Flag is a “very dangerous act of military provocation” aimed at launching a “preemptive” and “unexpected” strike on North Korea.
12. Japan Voting For New Leader In Shadow Of Scandals – BBC
Shigeru Ishiba announced the snap election three days after he was selected as the leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP)—before he had been officially sworn in as prime minister.
The decision was made despite the LDP seeing approval ratings of below 20% earlier in the year, in the wake of a political fundraising corruption scandal. Yet the LDP still remains the strongest contender against opposition parties which have failed to unite, or convince voters they are a viable option to govern.
13. Two Mining Firms Reach $30B Settlement Over 2015 Brazilian Mine Collapse – UPI
Brazil-based mining company Vale and Australian firm BHP signed the deal during an event by Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva.
The tailing dam at the iron ore mine collapsed in November 2015, releasing thousands of tons of mud and mining waste into the environment, killing 19 people and hundreds of others homeless in Mariana, Brazil.
14. Discrimination May Cause Gut Inflammation, Digestive Woes, Study Says – UPI Health
Discrimination – prejudiced actions toward people based on their identity – may cause stress that impairs gut health and lead to the growth of unhealthy bacteria that promote inflammation, a new study has found.
When stress compromises the signals between the brain and the gut, it weakens the immune system and alters the gut microbiome – microorganisms in the digestive tract. “It helps us understand the biological link between discrimination, stress, and potentially other social determinants of health and how they affect the body,” the study’s lead author, Dr. Tien Dong said.
15. CDC: Some People May Need Extra Dose Of COVID-19 Vaccine – HealthDay News
According to new guidance approved by a vaccine advisory panel and backed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, people 65 and older and those who are immunocompromised should receive a second dose of the vaccines that rolled out this fall six months after their first shot.
“This vote allows people to make the best decisions possible to keep themselves and their loved ones safe from COVID-19,” CDC Director Mandy Cohen said in a news release.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
