Among President Trump’s promises during the 2024 campaign was to “medically discharge” transgender men and women from the U.S. military. But would Americans support such a move? A plurality of voters say no, revealing a deep political split over the issue, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.
While no specific proposal has yet actually been put forward, the national online I&I/TIPP Poll asked this question: “News reports suggest President-elect Trump is considering an executive order to discharge all transgender service members and ban future enlistments, potentially affecting 15,000 active personnel. Do you support or oppose this plan?”
The poll of 1,411 adults, taken from Nov. 27-29, has a margin of error of +/-2.6 percentage points.
Among those responding, 41% said they would support it either “strongly” (19%) or “somewhat” (22%), while a plurality of 47% stated they would oppose it “somewhat” (19%) or “strongly” (27%). Another 11% said they were not sure.
But the closeness of the overall response masks a large political gap in how the topic of transgenders in the military service is viewed.
To wit, a majority of both Democratic (23% support, 70% oppose) and independent (31% support, 52% oppose) voters disapprove of the idea.
But Republicans strongly back it, with 68% “support” and 23% “oppose.”
Both GOP voters and Democrat voters are solidly sure of their positions, with only 7% of Democrats and 9% of Republicans saying they’re “not sure.” Among independents, uncertainty is much higher at 17%.
How one voted in the 2024 presidential election seems to define the sharp split on the issue: Among Kamala Harris voters, 73% opposed the Trump plan, while only 18% supported it. Trump voters were the opposite, with 23% against the proposal, and 68% supporting it.
What about religious belief? Among Christian denominations, perhaps surprisingly, Catholics (39% support, 49% oppose) were least likely to back Trump’s policy, compared to Protestants (47% support, 41% oppose) and “Other Christian” denominations, at (50% support, 41% oppose).
For those with “other religion”, opposition rises to 52%, while support declines to 35%. As for those with no formal religion, a growing share of the U.S. population in recent decades, opposition was highest at 59%, with support at just 33%.
All in all, the numbers suggest deep schisms on the issue of transgender service in the military, based on culture, political affiliation, and religious beliefs, differences that might be difficult to bridge if the policy is put in place.
The truth is, Trump is merely restoring what he had tried put in place before during his first term.
A partial ban on transgender service was imposed by Trump in response to former President Obama’s 2016 order that opened military service to transgender people.
President Trump subsequently reversed that order in 2017, requiring the military to restore its “longstanding policy” of not permitting transgender individuals to serve in the military. The Pentagon embraced it, though the plan did allow those transgender individuals who already had joined before the ban went into effect to continue their careers.
But the military’s approval was key.
“The Pentagon based this conclusion on its own vast amounts of medical data gathered from years of experience dealing with service members who had gender dysphoria,” Thomas W. Spoehr, a retired Army lieutenant general, wrote in 2018.
Spoehr cited “data documenting that transgender individuals with gender dysphoria attempt suicide at nearly nine times the U.S. average lifetime rate, and experience severe anxiety at eight times the average rate,” adding that “The Pentagon’s transgender policy is no different from its treatment of hundreds of other medically disqualifying conditions such as bipolar disorder, asthma, or diabetes.”
Trump’s ban went into effect temporarily in 2019, but allowed those transgender individuals who were serving before the ban to remain on the job. Trump’s order was subsequently overturned by newly elected President Biden in 2021.
As reported by Military.com in late November, citing several international news outlets, “President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is developing an executive order that would medically discharge the estimated 15,000 transgender service members from the military.”
The incoming Trump administration hasn’t officially confirmed that yet. However, a week ago, speaking at AmericaFest 2024 in Phoenix, Ariz., Trump made clear he intends to take action.
“With the stroke of my pen on day one, we’re going to stop the transgender lunacy. I will sign executive orders to end child sexual mutilation, get transgender out of the military and out of our elementary schools and middle schools and high schools,” Trump said.
“Under the Trump administration, it will be the official policy of the United States government that there are only two genders, male and female,” he added, vowing to “keep men out of women’s sports.”
“Doesn’t sound too complicated, does it?” he said.
No, it doesn’t.
But it might well be more difficult than first thought, at least politically.
When it comes to a ban on political service by transgender people, as I&I/TIPP data clearly indicate, it will be strongly supported by Republicans, Trump voters, and, in general, those living in Red States. But it will be largely opposed by Democrats, independents, and those living in Blue and Swing States.
As such, it’s a political fight that might soon become another major battle in the nation’s ongoing cultural war.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com And More
1. Canada PM Trudeau is Likely To Announce Resignation, Source Says – David Ljunggren, Reuters
2. Exclusive: Top Justice Department Official In Trump Classified Documents Case Resigns – Michael Isikoff, SpyTalk
3. Video: Biden Fires Back At Reporter Over Question About His Age – Jake Schneider, X
4. Germany’s New Morgenthau Plan – Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
5. Biden’s Boondoggles Boggle The Mind – Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
6. The Economic Mess The Biden-Harris Admin Is Leaving For Trump – Peter St. Onge, The Daily Signal
7. Massive Dockworker Strike Could Land In Trump Admin’s Lap On Day One – Wallace White, DCNF
8. Do Not Be Eager To Deal Out Death In Judgment – Zachary Yost, Mises Wire
9. What ‘America First Abroad’ Should Look Like – Bruce Abramson, The Daily Signal
10. The Fentanyl China Bogeyman – Aaron Sobczak, Mises Wire
11. Pope Francis Should Go to Gaza! – Philip Giraldi, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
12. Pro-Life Christian Detained for Preaching Gospel, Offering to Adopt Babies at Abortion Clinic – Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
13. Tesla Cybertruck Explosion In Las Vegas Investigated As Possible Terrorism – Shirleen Guerra, The Daily Signal
14. Joe Biden Awards Presidential Medal Of Freedom To Group Including George Soros, Hillary Clinton – Robert McGreevy, DCNF
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Hamas Says It Has Approved Israeli List Of 34 Hostages For Possible Gaza Deal – Al Arabiya
A group official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter, also reiterated that any deal is contingent upon reaching an agreement on an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and a permanent ceasefire.
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responded by saying that Hamas has not provided a list of hostage names “up to this moment.”
2. Syrian Caretaker Government To Hike Public Sector Salaries By 400 Percent Next Month – Reuters
Syria’s finance minister said the government would hike salaries for many public sector employees by 400 percent next month after completing an administrative restructuring of ministries to boost efficiency and accountability.
The increase, estimated to cost 1.65 trillion Syrian pounds, or about $127 million at current rates, will be financed by existing state resources plus a combination of regional aid, new investments, and efforts to unfreeze Syrian assets held abroad. The measures are part of a broader strategy by Syria’s new caretaker government to stabilize the country’s economy following 13 years of conflict and sanctions.
3. Ukraine Launches Incursion Into Russia’s Kursk Region, Casualties Unknown – UPI
Ukraine has launched a military counterattack in the southern Russian Kursk region, a move officials said was designed to stop a Russian offensive.
The head of the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, said Ukrainian forces had launched surprise attacks against Russian forces in several locations across Kursk, months after launching its incursion in the region.
4. China’s Top Diplomat Heads To Africa As West’s Attention Dwindles – Euractiv.Com
China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi began his annual New Year tour of Africa, maintaining a 35-year-long tradition, to quietly advance Beijing’s already sizeable influence across the resource-rich continent as Europe’s presence wanes and America’s wavers.
While global capitals and investors brace for the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House, and wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and domestic politics keep German and French ministers occupied, Foreign Minister Wang Yi being in Namibia, the Republic of Congo, Chad and Nigeria highlights the consistency of China’s engagement with Africa, analysts say.
5. U.S., China Engage In “Drone War”; Washington Mulls Rules To Ban “Superior” Chinese Drones – The Eurasian Times
President Joe Biden’s proposal to cut China out of the drone supply chain came hours after Beijing announced export bans on 28 American companies, including leading manufacturers of defense systems like Boeing and Lockheed Martin, citing national security interests as reasons for its export control list.
Highlighting the need to cut the supply chain, the U.S. Commerce Department argued that “acute threats from China and Russia may offer our adversaries the ability to remotely access and manipulate these devices, exposing sensitive U.S. data.”
6. India Rises As Destination For Japanese Business Growth – Nikkei Asia
Business surveys show that India has become one of the most promising markets for Japanese companies. The country’s rise reflects the waning appeal of China as an investment destination, even as it presents a different set of risks.
India topped a list of countries where Japanese companies plan to expand in the next one to two years, with 80.3% of respondents saying they are looking to grow there, according to a survey released by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO) in November. This is a 4.7-point increase from the previous year’s survey.
7. Panama Reports Sharp Drop In Irregular Migration Through Darien Gap – Al Jazeera
The number of migrants and asylum seekers traversing the Darien Gap — the treacherous strip of jungle connecting South and North America — has fallen by nearly 41 percent in the last year.
Panama’s right-wing President, Jose Raul Mulino, announced the decline, touting it as a success for the country’s efforts to limit irregular migration. In fiscal year 2023, the United States reported 2.48 million “encounters” with migrants and asylum seekers at its southern border with Mexico.
8. North Korea Launches Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile: S. Korea – Kyodo News
North Korea fired what could be an intermediate-range ballistic missile toward the Sea of Japan, the South Korean military said, in its first ballistic missile test in about two months.
The North Korean missile launch, the first since the nation fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles on Nov. 5., came two weeks before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on Jan. 20.
9. AI Could Stop Us From Aging After 2032, Says Kurzweil – Nikkei Asia
Computer scientist Ray Kurzweil envisions a future in which AI-connected brains massively increase human intelligence, conquer most diseases, and extend life spans to 500 years – a mind-blowing vision that forces us to rethink our perspectives on life.
Kurzweil, a scientist and a pioneer in technologies such as optical character recognition and text-to-speech synthesis, is also known for his bold predictions about the evolution of artificial intelligence.
10. The Unfortunate Truth About President-Elect Donald Trump’s Social Security Plan – The Motley Fool
While ensuring seniors are taken care of in 2025 is an important consideration, Trump’s campaign promises have some major drawbacks.
The Social Security trust fund is set to deplete its surplus by 2033 without any changes to the program. Trump’s plan to end Social Security income taxation will accelerate that timeline because the federal taxes on Social Security income get fed back into the trust fund. One way to counteract the forthcoming shortfall in Social Security is to raise the full retirement age. That said, even the most aggressive increases in full retirement age will only eliminate a portion of the projected shortfall in scheduled benefits.
11. Bitwise CEO Predicts Trump Administration To Boost Crypto Mergers – Crypto.News
In a recent tweet, Hunter Horsley noted that the potential deregulation of mergers and acquisitions could allow major companies like Google or Amazon to expand even further through strategic acquisitions.
Horsley argued that this concentration of power could drive the adoption of decentralized systems, aligning with the core tenet of cryptocurrency: the skepticism toward centralized organizations. He believes that as large corporations gain more control, the demand for cryptocurrencies—designed to offer an alternative to such institutions—could grow.
12. Quick, Simple Nasal Swab Helps Diagnose Type Of Asthma In Children – HealthDay News
Researchers say a new quick-and-easy nasal swab test for kids can diagnose the specific immune system drivers behind their asthma, potentially opening the door to better treatments. The test diagnoses a child’s asthma subtype, also called an endotype.
Asthma is the most common chronic disease of childhood, affecting about 1 in every 10 kids, according to the National Institutes of Health.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
