It’s a cardinal rule for many, if not most, economists that tariffs are at best a misguided strategy for reviving a nation’s economy, at worst a strategy that will backfire by hiking inflation and killing jobs. But don’t tell Americans that. Half of those in the most recent I&I/TIPP Poll support imposing new tariffs on other nations’ goods.
President Trump came into office promising to impose a hefty 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada, and an additional 10% tariff on China, citing those countries allowing “mass numbers of people and fentanyl” to cross their borders into the U.S.
Initially, Trump said those tariffs would go into effect immediately, but since changed their implementation date until Feb. 1 — presumably to give the three countries an opportunity to forge a response. The clock’s ticking.
In January’s national online I&I/TIPP Poll, 1,424 adults were asked the following question (one of three related to tariffs): “Do you support or oppose the U.S. placing new tariffs on goods imported from other countries?” The poll’s margin of error is +/-2.6 percentage points.
A strong plurality of 49% answered that they supported tariffs either “strongly” (20%) or “somewhat” (29%), while 34% responded that they opposed the move “somewhat” (16%) or “strongly” (18%). Uncertainty was fairly high, with 17% saying “not sure.”
It might not be too surprising that, as is often the norm, political affiliation helps define the responses.
Only 34% of Democrats, for instance, support tariffs, while a majority of 51% oppose them. Republicans, on the other hand, support tariffs by a significantly large 73% margin, versus opposition of only 15%. Independents are neatly split, at 41% support and 39% oppose.
As mentioned, that wasn’t the only question on tariffs. The second was: “To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement: Imposing tariffs will incentivize foreign companies to manufacture within the United States.”
And again, 48% agreed either “strongly” (18%) or “somewhat” (30%), while 30% disagreed either strongly (13%) or somewhat (17%).
Predictably, this question also divided respondents by political party, given that the long-moribund issue of tariffs on foreign goods was revived only in recent years by President Donald Trump.
However, while 38% of Democrats saw tariffs “incentivizing” foreign companies to make things here, only 42% disagreed with that. For Republicans, the tally was 65% agree to 16% disagree, and for independent voters 44% agree to 33% disagree, leaning more toward the GOP.
One final big question about tariffs: “Do you think raising tariffs to imports from other countries will do more to protect American jobs and strengthen the U.S. economy, do more to raise consumer costs and harm the U.S. economy, or will it not have much impact either way on the U.S. economy?”
Of all those responding, 34% said tariffs would “protect American jobs and strengthen the U.S. economy,” while 36% said it would “raise consumer costs and harm the economy,” and 9% said “it will not have much impact either way.” Again, a large 21% of all those who answered the polls said they were “not sure.”
Again, it wouldn’t be a poll if it didn’t include the widening political differences among the parties.
In this case, 21% of the Democrats said it would “strengthen” the U.S. economy, and 51% thought it would “harm” it, with 11% saying it wouldn’t have much impact either way.
Of Republicans, 53% said it would strengthen, 21% said it would harm, and 7% said not much impact. Independents broke 26% strengthen, 39% harm and 9% no impact.
So are tariffs purely a Trump phenomenon? Or have we reached a crossroads in how Americans view free trade vs. protected trade?
It’s clear that tariffs resonate with a large number of Americans. Trump has in the past used tariffs as a negotiating cudgel to win concessions from stubborn U.S. trade partners. The massive U.S. market for imports was $3.86 trillion in 2023. So, yes, it’s a very big cudgel.
Trump entered office last week, as noted, threatening Mexico, Canada and China with tariffs. He added one more to the list over the weekend: Colombia, for refusing to let a U.S. plane holding Colombian deportees land. Trump immediately slapped a 25% tariff on the country.
While tariffs always create a huge debate, the truth is we already have tariffs on all sorts of goods.
As The Federalist recently explained, “anything that doesn’t come from the 20 countries we have trade treaties with. America has a trade-weighted average import tariff rate of 2.0% on industrial goods. With half of all America’s imported industrial goods entering duty-free, many goods face tariff rates above 2%.”
As for this being a Trump-only issue, it isn’t. Democrats have in the past embraced tariffs and other trade barriers to keep foreign goods out. As an example, Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods, imposed during his 2017-2020 first administration, remained untouched under President Biden.
Still, the economic argument against broad-based tariffs is strong: Tariffs, the argument goes, inevitably distort the free market, raise costs to consumers and punish low-cost producers.
As the Committee to Unleash Prosperity recently wrote: “Tariffs are simply an excise tax on international trade. They dampen prosperity.”
The president has also mulled increasing tariffs across the board to help pay for tax reform, made possible by a new “External Revenue Service” to collect the money.
However, according to the Washington Post, citing inside sources, “rather than apply tariffs to all imports, the current discussions center on imposing them only on certain sectors deemed critical to national or economic security.”
And so far, this is what Trump has done. He’s used tariffs mostly as a negotiating tool on largely non-economic issues, whether with China, the European Union, Russia, Canada, Mexico, or any number of other recalcitrant partners in talks with the U.S..
Even so, businesses in other countries are already worried about the hit they’ll take, after Trump’s remarks last week to the Word Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland:
“Come make your product in America,” Trump told the conference via TV hookup, vowing low taxes for all who do so. “But if you don’t make your product in America – which is your prerogative – then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff.”
Clearly, Trump sees tariffs as a way to rebuild America’s ailing industrial heartland, which suffered a steep decline after the NAFTA in 1994 and China’s admission to the World Trade Organization, with special trade privileges, in 2001.
Remember, too, that Trump won solid and broad support in the seven major swing states that together make up much of America’s troubled industrial heartland. And there, tariffs are seen as an economic lifesaver, not an anvil.
This same sentiment is largely reflected January’s I&I/TIPP Poll. It shows half of all Americans believe that tariffs will encourage foreign companies to make things here, not there.
But whether Trump broadens out his tariff approach to all goods, or tries to entirely replace the income tax with tariffs, as he has hinted he might do, one thing’s clear: It would find solid support among average Americans
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com And More
Trump Administration
1. Did Trump Halt Aid To Ukraine? — Larry C. Johnson, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
2. Trump Was Right To Yank Security Clearances of the 51 ‘Spies Who Lie’ — Deroy Murdock, The Daily Signal
3. Thunder and Blunder on Day One — David Stockman, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
4. Affordable Housing – How Donald Trump Could Accomplish More Than Jimmy Carter — Donna Jackson & Ben Lieberman, CFACT
5. How Education System Sacrifices Our Kids to the Detriment of Society, What Trump Can Do About It — Karen Hiltz, The Daily Signal
6. Trump Tells LA Mayor ‘I Know My People’ As He Slams Her For Slow Fire Cleanup — Hailey Gomez, DCNF
Global Affairs
7. Another Government Agency Now Says COVID Likely Leaked From Lab: REPORT — Emily Kopp, DCNF
8. China Poses A Severe Threat In Panama And Leaves The US With No Choice — Martin Arostegui, The American Spectator
9. Why Trump Threatens Davos — Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
10. Who’s Even Gloomier About Trump’s Big Win Than The Dems? ‘Global Leaders’ At Davos — Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
11. Europe Shrugged—Now Irrelevant — Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
12. TikTok And The Freedom Of Speech — Andrew P. Napolitano, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
13. Saved From The Terror Of TikTok — Eric Margolis, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
14. WHO Begs For Money Online After Trump Announces Withdrawal — Emily Kopp, DCNF
15. Why the World Is Giving Up On Birthright Citizenship — Ryan McMaken, Mises Wire
Politics
16. The Left’s Sin Is of Omission and Lost Opportunity — Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
17. Who’s Even Gloomier About Trump’s Big Win Than The Dems? ‘Global Leaders’ At Davos — Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
18. Stephen A. Smith Says He Feels Like A ‘Damn Fool’ For Voting For Kamala Harris — John Oyewale, DCNF
19. JD Vance Gives Economics Lesson For CBS Host Trying Gotcha Question On Inflation — Hailey Gomez, DCNF
20. The Cold Civil War Is Over. We Won — Josh Hammer, The Daily Signal
21. How the US Became So Dysfunctional, Oligarchic, and Corrupt — Finn Andreen, Mises Wire
Energy/Economy
22. Free Our Energy Sector From Crippling Regulations And Inflationary Spending On So-Called “Green Energy — John R. Hays, Jr., CFACT
23. Mine, Baby, Mine! — Paul Driessen, CFACT
24. The Difference Between The Market And The Bureaucracy — Murray N. Rothbard, Mises Wire
25. The Alarming Rise Of Stakeholder Capitalism: Andrew Puzder Exposes The Threat — Rob Bluey, The Daily Signal
26. Cracking Down On Illegal Immigration Would Raise Wages For Lower-Income Americans — Alexander Frei, The Daily Signal
27. Battleground Wisconsin Set For Referendum On Enshrining Voter ID In State Constitution — Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Trump Says Jordan, Egypt Should Take More Palestinians From Gaza; Hamas Rejects Plan – Reuters
Asked if this was a temporary or long-term solution for Gaza, where Israel’s military assault has caused a dire humanitarian situation and killed tens of thousands, Trump said: “Could be either.”
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who has repeatedly called for the return of Jewish settlers to Gaza, welcomed Trump’s call as “an excellent idea” and said he would work to develop a plan to implement it. But a Hamas official reacted with suspicion, echoing long-standing Palestinian fears about being driven permanently from their homes.
2. Lebanon Ceasefire Deal Extended As Initial Deadline Passes – BBC
The U.S. and Lebanon say the ceasefire deal with Israel – which had been due to expire on Sunday – has been extended until mid-February.
Israel had kept troops deployed in Lebanon beyond the initial deadline, accusing the Lebanese government of not fully implementing its part of the deal, which required the removal of Hezbollah from the area. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati says, following contact from the U.S., the truce will now remain in place until 18 February.
3. Latvia: Undersea Cable Likely Damaged By External Influence – D.W.
After a fiber optic cable was damaged near Sweden, Latvia sent a patrol boat to inspect a suspicious vessel in the Baltic Sea. Sweden later said it seized a vessel believed to have carried out the sabotage.
In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, there have been a number of incidents in the Baltic Sea that have damaged power cables, telecommunications links and gas pipelines.
4. Lukashenko Claims 7th Term In Belarus Election Condemned As ‘Sham’ By EU – RFE/RL
With all votes counted, the Central Election Commission of Belarus announced that according to preliminary results, Belarusian strongman Alyaksandr Lukashenko received 86.8 percent of the vote in the January 26 election.
His closest competitor, Sergei Syrankov, received 3.2 percent. Lukashenko, a Russian ally who has been in power for three decades, told the media after casting his vote earlier on January 26 that Belarus has “a tough democracy.” But the opposition, rights groups, and the West disagree.
5. China’s Oil Demand Near Peak As Government Pushes To Cut Imports – Nikkei Asia
Experts are beginning to predict China’s demand for crude oil may hit a ceiling earlier than previously forecast, as the world’s second-largest economy undergoes a state-led structural shift, encouraging sales of “new-energy” vehicles and through other measures.
Consumption trends in China inevitably affect the global outlook for the oil market. Although China says it is working toward a zero-carbon economy, its efforts to cut its reliance on imported oil are driven more by concerns about energy security, say analysts.
6. China’s Factory Activity Contracts In January For The First Time In 4 Months – A.P.
The National Bureau of Statistics said its purchasing managers index, based on a survey of factory managers, slipped to 49.1 in January from 50.1 the month before. A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion. Under 50 signals a contraction in activity.
New orders and production also contracted. A parallel purchasing managers’ index for the non-manufacturing sector, which covers construction and services, fell to 50.2 points from 52.2 in December.
7. Trump Suspends Colombia Tariffs After Agreement – D.W.
The White House announced that President Donald Trump would not go forward with tariffs and some sanctions against Colombia after the South American country agreed to take in deported migrants from the U.S., including on U.S. military aircraft.
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the measures which would have imposed 25% tariffs on all Colombian goods coming into the United States and then raised to 50% in one week will be “held in reserve, and not signed.”
8. Saudi Arabia, Italy Ink $10 Billion Cooperation And Industrial Deals – Al Arabiya
Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in AlUla, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) reported.
Meloni said Italy and Saudi Arabia had signed “many agreements at government level but also supporting MoUs signed by public and private entities during the visit.” She cited infrastructure, energy, defense, sport, entertainment, and tourism as areas where cooperation between the two countries could become “stronger, more effective and deeper.”
9. Dubai’s Ceaseless Boom Is Putting Strains On Its Residents – A.P.
Skyscraper-studded Dubai has been on a hot streak for the last five years.
The city-state has seen record-breaking real estate transactions and as more and more people come to live there, and its state-owned airline Emirates is booking record earnings. But all that growth comes with strains for the city’s population.
Traffic feels worse than ever on Dubai’s roads. The price of housing continues to spike even with new real estate projects being announced almost daily. Caught in the middle are both its Emirati citizens and the vast population of foreigners who power its economy — sparking rare public expressions of concern.
10. UN Chief Calls For Rwandan Forces To Leave DRC As Rebels Press Offensive – Al Jazeera
United Nations chief Antonio Guterres has called on Rwandan forces to withdraw from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and halt support for M23 fighters advancing on the key city of Goma in the country’s east.
The DRC and the UN accuse Rwanda of backing the M23 (March 23 Movement) rebels, an accusation that Kigali denies. The DRC severed all diplomatic ties with Rwanda amid this week’s rebel offensive. Eastern Congo remains a tinderbox of rebel zones and fighters’ fiefdoms in the wake of two successive regional wars stemming from Rwanda’s 1994 genocide.
11. U.S. Warns Of Bounties On Taliban Leaders – AFP
Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened bounties on the heads of Afghanistan’s Taliban leaders, stressing that more Americans may be detained in the country than previously thought.
The threat came days after the Afghan Taliban government and the United States swapped prisoners in one of the final acts of former president Joe Biden. Rubio did not describe who the other Americans may be, but there have long been accounts of missing Americans whose cases were not formally taken up by the U.S. government as wrongful detentions.
12. Why China Startup DeepSeek Could Spell Trouble For Nvidia, AI Stocks – IBD
China’s DeepSeek startup roiled artificial intelligence-driven stocks on Monday as Wall Street mulled huge investments by technology industry giants in AI infrastructure as well as demand for Nvidia (NVDA) chips.
DeepSeek’s apparent advances have raised questions over the computing power needed to develop AI systems, a key driver for AI stocks. DeepSeek released a large language model (LLM) in late December that had performance comparable to OpenAI and other AI systems despite U.S. government restrictions on exports of advanced chips. Last week, DeepSeek released another LLM that it said was trained at a fraction of the cost of AI systems from OpenAI, Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google, Meta Platforms (META) and other U.S. companies.
13. These 3 Cryptocurrencies Could Predict The Future Of Money – The Motley Fool
There’s ample reason to believe that soon, you’ll have a much more expansive idea of what money really is compared to how you think about it today.
Let’s discuss three of the cryptocurrencies that are emblematic of these changes:
1. Bitcoin – With Bitcoin’s reputation for being “digital gold” cementing rapidly, it’s the perfect example of how the idea of money as a form of value storage is changing to be more fluid and less pinned down to physical objects.
2. Solana – The chain is useful for everything from decentralized finance (DeFi) to minting non-fungible tokens (NFTs), speculating on meme coins, and interacting with other blockchains via bridging services.
3. Dogecoin – Dogecoin is proof that in the near future, the concept of money might be viewed as entailing the possibility of creating fun via investment, as mediated by the potential for large gains.
14. Pregnant And Quitting Smoking: Financial Rewards Make It Possible – SciTechDaily
Rewards and financial incentives have been proven effective in helping people quit smoking, according to a new Cochrane review co-led by a researcher from the University of Massachusetts Amherst.
Notably, this study provides “high-certainty evidence” for the first time that such interventions also work for pregnant individuals. Earlier research published in the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews indicated moderate confidence that financial rewards could help pregnant individuals quit smoking. However, the latest findings strengthen this evidence significantly.
15. How Gratitude Changes You And Your Brain – The Greater Good Science Center at the University of California, Berkeley
New research is starting to explore how gratitude works to improve our mental health.
Recent evidence suggests that a promising approach is to complement psychological counseling with additional activities that are not too taxing for clients but yield high results. In our own research, we have zeroed in on one such activity: the practice of gratitude. Indeed, many studies over the past decade have found that people who consciously count their blessings tend to be happier and less depressed.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
