tippinsights Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
Trump Trolled, Trudeau Collapsed, Carney Capitalized. The Gullible American Left Misreads.
If President Trump were not in the White House, most American media outlets would have barely covered the Canadian elections. This time, there was substantial interest in the Canadian vote because of how Trump single-handedly changed that election’s narrative. He took issue with the way Trudeau ran the longest, unguarded land border between any two contiguous countries in the world. In Trump’s telling, Canada didn’t do enough to stop fentanyl traffic into the United States, allowing Russian, Chinese, and East European cartels to profit from the trade. Trump’s main weapon of choice, tariffs, went into effect as soon as he took office. To punish Canada for its behavior, he imposed a 20% tariff on all Canadian exports to America.
Trump also lambasted Trudeau as an ineffective leader who let Canada become a ‘woke’ democracy with rising crime, unbridled immigration, and a terrible record of silencing speech and punishing anyone who disagreed with Trudeau’s aggressive tactics during COVID-19. Trump insisted that Canada benefits far more from its relationship with the United States than the other way around, so the country could practically become America’s 51st state. Trump’s constant trolling of Trudeau as “Governor Trudeau” forced the Canadian leader to hastily make a pilgrimage to Mar-a-Lago to patch differences with Trump. The numerous meetings yielded little, and soon after, Trudeau announced that he would step down as the country’s leader.
On Liberation Day, Trump also announced punishing tariffs on all Canadian exports on top of the fentanyl tariffs and the 10% minimum tariff on all countries. He later dialed back some of those tariffs for products included in the USMCA agreement, but the message was clear. Canada had to begin compensating America for all that America has done for the large country (including providing security).
Trump’s bold moves against Canada surprised even many of his staunchest supporters. For over a hundred years, Canadians and Americans, especially along the border states, have freely traveled to the other side armed only with a driver’s license and a passport. Canadian snowbirds, escaping the country’s harsh winters, were a mainstay in the sunbelt states of Arizona, Texas, and Florida. But no more. Trump’s strict immigration enforcement policies ensnared Canadians, too, and for many Canadians, this was the ultimate insult.
When Trudeau stepped down, he left a terrible legacy for his appointed successor, Mark Carney, who won this week’s election. Carney, a Harvard and Oxford-trained economist, and a former Chairman of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England (the central banks), had never held political office before. Carney defeated a Conservative leader who was a quintessential politician, never having served in the private economy. The Conservative leader even lost his parliamentary seat in Ottawa.
It wasn’t supposed to happen this way. In October last year, the Conservatives were polling with a +30% margin over the Liberals and were not even campaigning hard. They were benefiting from an old rule in politics – when the other side is destroying itself, just sit back and enjoy.
Canadians had indeed soured on Trudeau. They could never forgive him for invoking the Emergencies Act and freezing the bank accounts of ordinary truck drivers and supporters of the blockade when protesters fought the Trudeau government’s vaccine mandates and other restrictions.
By the middle of 2022, Trudeau’s popularity was sinking, and his unpopular numbers were trickling above 50%. As inflation soared, the Bank of Canada had to increase interest rates in a play-by-play replay of what was happening in America. By mid-2023, polls indicated Trudeau’s approval rating had fallen further. An Angus Reid survey showed his approval at 40%, with disapproval rates at 55%. The decline continued into 2024. An Ipsos poll reported only 28% of Canadians believed Trudeau deserved re-election. His approval ratings hit new lows, with some polls showing disapproval rates at 65% and approval at around 30%. These numbers closely tracked the wrong-track numbers of President Biden.
But Carney skillfully opposed Trump’s attacks on Canada and won. However, winning is the easy part. Governing will be incredibly more difficult. Canada’s underlying problems remain, and a Leftist solution won’t budge the needle.
Liberals in America are reading too much into the results of the Canadian election. There’s now a steady drumbeat of statements from Democratic senators, including Osoff and Schiff, about raising the dreaded I word (Impeachment). A Congressman from Michigan pressed hard on the charge in a video clip that went viral. Trump carried Michigan and continues to do well in the state with his tariff policies and attempts to bring manufacturing back to the Midwest. At a rally in Warren, Michigan, his first since he returned to the White House, Trump said to thunderous applause, “With my China tariffs, we’re ending the greatest job theft in the history of the world…China has taken more jobs from us than any country has ever taken from another country.”
To be sure, many of Trump’s actions have nothing to do with the Democrats, who are silently watching him make a few unforced errors. The Liberation Day tariffs were rolled out rather haphazardly, and when the markets tanked, Trump adjusted some terms, though he framed them as tactical refinements rather than concessions. Trump is frustrated that the Russia-Ukraine war is continuing. His actions against China have many supporters, but the fear of an imminent trade war has frozen mergers and acquisitions activity on Wall Street. Investors don’t yet know how to protect their portfolios from diminishing returns. The dollar is falling, and gold has hit record highs. Liberal judges are pouncing on Trump’s relatively wounded status and approving Temporary Restraining Orders willy-nilly, adding to the media narrative that the resistance is strengthening.
But the American Left can’t run on an anti-Trump platform alone. The four years of Biden-Harris proved this beyond any doubt. The Democrats are veering even more Left than last year, openly arguing for the so-called “Rule of Law” to protect “Due Process rights” for violent MS-13 deportees. The Carney trick will not work in the United States.
