President Trump’s Iran campaign may have finally hit the one enemy Washington fears most: math.
After months of chest-thumping about “strength” and “resolve,” lawmakers on Capitol Hill are staring down a war that’s burning through cash, rattling global oil markets and sending gas prices through the roof — and suddenly even Republicans are starting to ask whether anybody in the White House actually has a plan.
Democrats smell blood in the water.
This week, Congress came closer than ever to reining in Trump’s military operations against Iran under the long-ignored 1973 War Powers Act, the law meant to stop presidents from freelancing foreign wars without Congress signing off first.
For months, GOP lawmakers marched in lockstep behind Trump’s operation against Tehran. But as the conflict drags on, the political hangover is getting harder to ignore. The Strait of Hormuz remains crippled after Iran’s retaliation disrupted one of the world’s most important oil chokepoints, helping push fuel costs sharply higher across the globe. Analysts warn the economic shock is rippling through everything from grocery bills to airline tickets. ()
And now the rebellion is starting.
In the House, Republicans barely blocked a resolution ordering Trump to pull U.S. forces out of hostilities against Iran. The measure died in a 212-212 tie — about as close as you can get without the Capitol gift shop selling “Mission Accomplished” mugs.
Three Republicans — Reps. Thomas Massie, Brian Fitzpatrick and Tom Barrett — crossed party lines to back the measure. Democrat Jared Golden voted against it, but not because he suddenly turned into Dick Cheney. The Maine lawmaker, a Marine veteran of Iraq and Afghanistan, said the resolution’s withdrawal deadline had already expired.
“I look forward to voting for a clean, relevant resolution as soon as possible,” Golden said. That’s not exactly comforting language for Team Trump.
The math gets even uglier for Republicans if Democratic Rep. Frederica Wilson returns after recovering from eye surgery, while GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. remains sidelined with a medical issue. At this point, House Republicans are operating with the margin for error of a drunk guy walking a tightrope.
Over in the Senate, the ground is shifting too. A Democratic attempt to force a war powers vote failed 49-50 — the closest anti-war measure has come since the conflict erupted in late February. Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski broke ranks for the first time, joining Susan Collins and Rand Paul in supporting the effort. Only Sen. John Fetterman crossed the aisle the other way.
That razor-thin margin has Democrats openly salivating over the next vote. “We know what our colleagues are hearing,” Sen. Tim Kaine said before the vote. “We’re starting to hear doubt creep into their words.”
The White House also claims the War Powers Act itself is unconstitutional, setting up what could become an explosive court fight if Congress finally succeeds in passing a binding resolution.
Meanwhile, lawmakers from both parties are growing visibly irritated with the administration’s shifting explanations for what victory in Iran is even supposed to look like. “It seems to me that there’s been a different plan, almost daily,” Sen. Susan Collins said during hearings last week.
The conflict is now estimated to cost roughly $29 billion, while the ongoing Hormuz crisis continues hammering energy markets and global shipping. Reuters reported Monday that companies worldwide have already absorbed at least $25 billion in economic damage tied to the war and supply disruptions. ()
Oil prices have repeatedly surged above $100 a barrel during the standoff, with economists warning prolonged instability could fuel inflation and further punish consumers already battered by years of rising costs. ()
Even some Republicans who still voted “no” are sounding increasingly uneasy. Sen. Thom Tillis admitted it would be “difficult” to support continuing the conflict because he’s “not quite clear what the strategic objectives are.”
Utah Sen. John Curtis has already warned he won’t support billions more in war funding without formal congressional authorization.
And that’s the nightmare scenario for the White House: not anti-war Democrats, but Republicans deciding this thing is turning into a political money pit with no off-ramp.
