Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett isn’t ready to believe the headlines suggesting Texas could be on the verge of electing its first Democratic senator in more than three decades.

Speaking with NBC News this week, the outgoing Texas congresswoman dismissed recent polling showing Democratic nominee James Talarico holding a narrow lead over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, arguing that campaign money—not early surveys—will determine whether the race is truly competitive.

“It looks like status quo.”

Crockett said she won’t be convinced Texas is genuinely in play until national party committees begin investing heavily in the race.

“When I look at the money, if Republicans start spending money in Texas, then I’ll be convinced.”

She noted that neither the National Republican Senatorial Committee nor the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has yet made Texas a top financial priority.

“Right now, neither one are investing, which tells me that their internals are saying the same thing.”

Her skepticism comes despite a string of public polls showing Talarico with a slim advantage over Paxton. A recent Texas Southern University survey put Talarico ahead 47% to 45%, while other recent polls have also shown the Democrat narrowly leading, although all remain within the margin of error.

Asked Jasmine Crockett last night in St. Louis if she thinks James Talarico can turn Texas blue this fall.

“I don’t know,” she said.

She doesn’t buy the polls, saying they’ve historically overstated Democrats’ prospects in Texas. “I watch money.”

“When I look at the money, if… pic.twitter.com/rJLZOuKhlC

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But Wednesday brought a new complication for Talarico’s campaign.

A joint investigation by The Texas Tribune and ProPublica reported that Talarico voted in five elections using his parents’ address after purchasing his own home in 2022, before updating his voter registration in 2024. Because the two addresses fell into different local voting jurisdictions, the report raised questions about whether his voting complied with Texas election law.

The allegations carry particular political sting because Talarico previously criticized Paxton over similar residency-related voting questions after separate reporting by the same news organizations alleged the attorney general may also have violated Texas election law.

Talarico’s campaign has pushed back, characterizing the latest report as a politically motivated distraction and disputing that it reflects intentional wrongdoing. Paxton’s campaign seized on the report, accusing Talarico of hypocrisy after making election integrity an issue in the campaign.

Despite the controversy, Republicans aren’t taking the polling lightly.

The race has become one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate contests, with strategists from both parties expecting tens of millions of additional dollars to pour into Texas before Election Day.

DBS WIRE SOURCES