The Daily BS • Bo Snerdley Cuts Through It!
The Daily BS • Bo Snerdley Cuts Through It!

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Canada prepared for a Trump invasion — and the internet has questions

by

BS BULLETIN:

  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says he examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada as an “extreme tail risk.”
  • Canadian military planners have reportedly modeled what would happen in a hypothetical American invasion — including a potential insurgency-style response.
  • The internet quickly identified one major flaw in the invasion scenario: college football season.

Canada has apparently contemplated the possibility of an American invasion.

Yes. That America.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged in an interview with The New York Times that he had examined the possibility of U.S.-led military action against Canada while considering President Donald Trump’s repeated talk about making America’s northern neighbor the 51st state.

But Carney was careful about how he described the threat.

“I think you have a responsibility in these roles to look at extreme tail risk,” Carney said. “That’s just risk management. That’s not a base case, but it would be irresponsible not to [prepare].”

In other words, Carney isn’t telling Canadians to dig foxholes in the backyard. But apparently somebody did run the numbers.

The Canadian Armed Forces have modeled a hypothetical American invasion, according to reporting cited by The Globe and Mail. The scenario reportedly assumes U.S. forces could overwhelm Canada’s conventional defenses within days, leaving Canadians to consider unconventional warfare involving ambushes, sabotage, drones and hit-and-run tactics.

The modeling reportedly drew comparisons to tactics used by Afghan fighters against Soviet forces and later by the Taliban against U.S.-led forces.

Importantly, the Canadian exercise was described as a military model — a theoretical exercise — rather than an actionable military plan. That distinction did absolutely nothing to save Canada from the internet.

“Most ridiculous headline of the year,” Billboard Chris responded to the reports.

Michael Lucci spotted an even bigger problem with Operation Maple Freedom.

“Can someone explain to @MarkJCarney that we’re not going to send the Alabama Nat’l Guard to conquer Canada in the middle of college football season?” he wrote. “They can’t afford a weekend away.”

Another commenter apparently decided even the National Guard would be overkill.

“So Cub Scouts and a PeeWee football team?”

Others questioned what evidence existed that Trump was seriously contemplating military action at all.

Trump has repeatedly talked about Canada becoming the 51st state, but when specifically asked in January 2025 whether he would use military force to annex Canada, he ruled that out and instead talked about using “economic force.”

Carney, meanwhile, appears to be approaching the question like the former central banker he is: don’t assume the unlikely thing will happen, but figure out what you’d do if it did.

Canada has also been dramatically increasing its defense capabilities for reasons extending well beyond the United States. Carney’s government says it has reached NATO’s 2% defense-spending target and announced major new investments in armored vehicles and other military capabilities amid broader concerns about Arctic security and an increasingly unstable world.

So no, the Mounties aren’t massing at the border.

But somewhere in Ottawa, somebody has apparently opened the folder marked: What if the Americans actually come?

MY QUICK TAKE

I’m going to give Carney a little more credit than the headline invites.

Governments are supposed to plan for things they don’t expect to happen. That’s why somebody in Washington probably has a plan for everything from a cyberattack on the power grid to aliens landing at Costco.

But once your theoretical exercise becomes “How do we fight the United States like the Taliban fought us?” — I’m sorry, we’re allowed to laugh.

And the Alabama National Guard line may have ended the war before it started. Invading Canada during college football season? Now we’re getting into scenarios that really are too unrealistic to plan for.

DBS WIRE SOURCES:

1 Comment

  1. Bryan Donahue on September 25, 2026 at 6:13 pm

    They don’t seriously think we WANT Canada, do they? I mean, the natural assets are impressive but, please. We’re happy to have an aimless, feckless, harmless neighbor to the north. We will do what’s necessary to keep it that way.

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