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Biden’s basement strategy won’t work in 2024


President Biden announced in a boring video that he would be running again. He did not follow it up with traditional stops in left-leaning enclaves like California and New York to drum up excitement. Perhaps he figures he has a second term sewn up, like the Democratic nomination, and can return to his basement to campaign.

Expecting a rematch with former President Donald Trump, the front-runner for the Republican nomination has obviously given Biden a lot of comfort. The Biden team’s strategy of employing official levers of power – from weaponizing Justice to collaborating with friendly prosecutors – has weakened Trump on paper and increased Biden’s confidence.

In a few short weeks, Trump was indicted in a dubious case by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin L. Bragg, Jr. for falsifying New York business records to conceal damaging information and unlawful activity from American voters before and after the 2016 election. Bragg has attempted to combine elements of state civil law with federal criminal law governing elections. Even the Department of Justice did not find that trying Trump on campaign violations could be successful, partly because it settled with other political leaders, like Hillary Clinton, for similar conduct.

Last week, Trump was found liable for battery and defamation against E. Jean Carroll’s allegation of sexual abuse in a Manhattan department store. The case raised eyebrows because the judge seemed predisposed to engineer a verdict against Trump.

Alan Dershowitz, an emeritus Harvard Law School professor, identified several constitutional issues with the judge’s courtroom decisions that Trump’s lawyers could argue in appeals court and have the judge’s decision overturned. The alleged incident happened in the mid-1990s, but the judge allowed an extension of the statute of limitations after it had expired (a potential violation of the Fifth Amendment). The judge ruled that the jurors’ names would remain anonymous even to the lawyers (a breach of the Seventh Amendment). The jury unanimously found that Trump had not raped Carroll but found that he maliciously defamed her by insisting that he did not rape her.

Meanwhile, the DOJ continues to leak to press-friendly outlets that Trump is in legal peril in the classified documents case even as it shields President Biden from his own headaches with classified documents, the Hunter Biden laptop scandal, or allegations of family bribery as reported out by the House Oversight Committee.

With so much going for Biden regarding his opponent’s weaknesses, isn’t he a shoo-in for a second term? After all, Biden practically never campaigned in 2020, running for President from his Delaware basement and defeating Trump by cleverly using the Covid noose around him. And to cement his lead since winning the Oval Office, the current President has exploited relationships with friendly Democrats to help ruin Trump’s political future. Trump was impeached a second time; the partisan J6 committee used taxpayer dollars for over 16 months to launch an intensively negative campaign against the former president; and Biden’s prosecutor friends in Georgia are investigating criminal violations to probe whether Trump allegedly tried to overturn the Georgia election.

Not really. Things were different in 2020 and were all in Biden’s favor. Democrat operatives used Covid as an excuse to loosen election laws around voter ID, universal mail-in ballots, and drop boxes in several states. But these have since been tightened.

Besides, the country, tired of deep divisions and White House drama under Trump, fell for Biden’s promise when he claimed to heal the divide and bring back unity. Most crucially, the electorate had no yardstick against which to measure Biden. President Obama had overshadowed him during Biden’s eight years as VP and assumed he could be a safe choice.

But Biden’s 2020 playbook will not work in 2024 because he has to defend his record. As we noted yesterday through 13 TIPP charts, Biden’s ratings are on life support because of a dismal first term. Reeling from a disastrous Washington Post/ABC News poll that showed him losing to both former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Biden has the lowest favorability rating at this juncture of the presidency in recent memory.

Inflation continues to rise, although not quite as rapidly as before. Interest rates are at 40-year highs. The money supply has shrunk, and the economy could tip into a recession. Three banks have failed and been rescued by federal backstops. Airline pilots and staff (Southwest, United, and American) have announced new strikes or other work actions to demand increased pay to compensate for higher living costs, joining Hollywood writers and port workers.

Biden’s stubborn position on not negotiating with the GOP regarding the debt ceiling puts America at risk of default as soon as June 1. The Ukraine war is not going as well as it should be, with President Zelenskyy conceding to the BBC his country is not yet ready to launch a counter-offensive against Russia, which appears to be having its own problems. The expiry of Title 42 has opened the floodgates as hundreds of thousands of migrants are inundating the southern border. China has become a significant threat both as a military adversary in the Taiwan Strait and as a counterbalancing weight to American hegemony.

Democrat allies are not enthusiastic about a second Biden term and often use his advancing age as an excuse. TIPP took the lead and polled Americans about his mental faculties as early as October 2022, when major media outlets considered the topic taboo. 64% of Americans were then concerned about his cognitive capabilities, including over one-half (52%) of Democrats. During the CNN town hall last week, Trump looked exceedingly sharp in front of a hostile host and a friendly audience. Biden, who rarely meets the press and needs his cue cards and handlers all the time, is no competition to Trump’s wit and guile.

Eighteen months in politics is an eternity, and things can dramatically change again to favor Biden. But as things stand, Biden is headed towards a decisive defeat and will likely take his Democratic party down with him.

TIPP Picks

Must Watch/Read – Selected by tippinsights Editorial Board

CCP-Controlled, State-Owned Firm Behind Chinese Cash Allegedly Funneled To Hunter Biden, Documents Show
By Philip Lenczycki for the Daily Caller Foundation | May 12, 2023 The Hong Kong corporation that allegedly wired funds to Hunter Biden’s business in 2017 was controlled by a Shanghai firm run by members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), some of whom had previously served in the People’
Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024


Every State Is a Border State: How the Migrant Crisis Impacts Wisconsin, Alabama, Virginia
By Tyler O’Neil, The Daily Signal / May 12, 2023 WASHINGTON, D.C.—Republicans in the House of Representatives voted Thursday to pass HR 2, a massive border bill. Many of them who represent states far removed geographically from the border told The Daily Signal how the crisis is impacting their
Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024


Danger Within: The Government Is Turning America Into a Constitution-Free Zone
By John & Nisha Whitehead, the Rutherford Institute | May 10, 2023 How far would you really go to secure the nation’s borders in the so-called name of national security? Would you give the government limitless amounts of money? Surround the entire country with concrete walls and barbed wire? Erect…
Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024


Biden And His Party Are Trying To Kill Humanity’s Last Best Hope
The president hates America. No? Then why is he, and his Democratic Party, systematically taking down this nation? Leaders who love their country don’t try to leave it on the ash heap of history. Konstantin Kisin, a Russian-British satirist, recently said on Bill Maher’s show that “people in
Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024


TIPP Takes

Geopolitics And Geoeconomics

1. Reports Of 4 Russian Military Aircraft Downed Near Ukraine Border – Al Jazeera

Russian news outlet Kommersant reported that two Russian fighter jets and two military helicopters were shot down close to the Ukrainian border in Russia’s Bryansk region in what would be a stunning military operation for Kyiv if confirmed.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

Kommersant provided no evidence for its report that the four aircraft had been downed by Ukrainian forces.

2. Germany Announces Largest Aid Package For Ukraine Worth Nearly $3 Billion – UPI

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius announced it would send nearly $3 billion in additional assistance to Ukraine, its largest military aid package since the beginning of Russia’s invasion.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

Germany showed initial reluctance to deliver tanks to Ukraine but agreed to a framework to deliver Leopard 2 tanks in January. Additionally, Germany agreed to send 50 Gephard anti-air systems in April.

3. Head Of Russia’s Crime Agency Suggests Nationalizing Key Parts Of Economy – Reuters

The head of Russia’s federal crime agency, Alexander Bastrykin, suggested that key sectors of the economy should be returned to state ownership to support Moscow’s war in Ukraine.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

Moscow has already seized or acquired assets at a heavy discount from some Western firms that have quit Russia or scaled back their activities since the invasion.

Russia conducted wide-ranging and often chaotic privatizations in the 1990s after the collapse of the communist Soviet Union.

4. South Africa Is ‘Actively Non-Aligned’ On Ukraine War, Says Government – Reuters

South Africa’s presidential security advisor said the country was “actively non-aligned” in Russia-Ukraine war after U.S. allegations it had supplied weapons to Moscow led to a diplomatic crisis.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, left, and South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa attend a signing ceremony [File: Alexei Nikolsky/Kremlin via Reuters]

Recent events, including naval exercises with Russia and China this year and hosting Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, have raised questions about South Africa’s stance.

5. China And Russia Are Increasing Their Military Collaboration, Japan’s Foreign Minister Warns – A.P.

Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi expressed concern about Russian and Chinese military cooperation in Asia.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

He said the security situation in Europe could not be separated from that in the Indo-Pacific region since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Japan firmly backs Ukraine in the war, but China says it remains neutral while declaring a ”no limits” relationship with Moscow and blaming the U.S. and NATO for provoking the conflict.

6. Drills Reveal China’s New Military Strategy: Expert – Taipei Times

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) latest military exercises revealed a new strategy in Beijing’s campaign against Taiwan, National Defense University researcher Ma Chen-kun said.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

The drills suggest that the PLA has adopted a strategy to regularly and without warning conduct preparedness patrols around Taiwan proper, which cements the notion that the Taiwan Strait is part of China’s territorial waters, he said.

7. China Aims To Cook Up Job Growth With Return Of Street-Stall Economy – Nikkei Asia

China’s major cities have once again embraced hawkers after years of trying to clear them from the streets.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

They hope the street-stall economy will boost sluggish recovery in job growth and spending since the end of zero-COVID restrictions.

Starting in September, Shenzhen will allow street vendors to set up stalls within designated areas. Shanghai is considering allowing street stalls at night markets and pedestrian-only zones within certain times.

8. Türkiye’s Presidential Election – Infographics – tippinsights

As Türkiye votes for president and parliament, “Table of Six” opposition leaders are focused on a deep economic crisis, sky-high inflation, and the aftermath of earthquakes that killed 50,000 people.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

A survey by Konda, one of Türkiye’s more respected polling firms, put support for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, candidate of the National Alliance — or so-called Table of Six — at 49.3 percent in the first round. Erdoğan, who has clung to power for 21 years, would receive only 43.7 percent of the votes. The poll suggests the election could go to a run-off between the two men on May 28.

9. Israel, Islamic Jihad Reach Cease-Fire To End Five Days Of Fighting – A.P.

Israel and the Islamic Jihad group in the Gaza Strip agreed to an Egyptian-brokered cease-fire late Saturday, ending five days of intense fighting.

Biden's Basement Strategy Won't Work In 2024

While the calm brought relief, the agreement did nothing to address the underlying issues that have fueled numerous rounds of fighting between the two sides.

Tensions could quickly resume next week when Israel holds a contentious march through a main Palestinian thoroughfare in Jerusalem’s Old City.

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights

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