Will the 2024 election be fair, or marred by systematic cheating? Based on how Americans feel about recent elections and the coming presidential contest, most are confident the election will be fair. But there’s a huge political gap on the issue between Democrats on one side, and Republicans and independents on the other, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows.

First, the good news: 65% of the 1,223 registered voters queried in the national online I&I/TIPP Poll, which was taken from Aug. 30-Sept. 1, called themselves either “very confident” (42%) or “somewhat confident” (23%) that the 2024 election “will be conducted fairly and accurately.”

The bad news: 28% of Americans expressed being either “not very confident” (17%) or “not at all confident” (11%). So more than a quarter of the electorate harbors doubts about the legitimacy of the coming presidential election. The poll has a 2.9 percentage-point margin of error.

Further muddying the picture, the major parties and political affiliations appear far apart when it comes to questions of election fairness.

Among Democrats, 89% believe the 2024 elections will be fair and above board. That compares to just 42% of Republicans and 58% of independents. Conversely, a mere 7% of Democrats thought the elections would have fairness issues, compared to 51% of Republicans and 32% of independents.

By party, the responses have a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points for Democrats, +/-4.4 percentage points for Republicans, and +/-5.9 percentage points for independents.

We asked the same general question about the previous two elections, in 2020 and 2022, as well. The answers stayed mainly within the margins of error: For the 2020 election, the responses came back 61% “confident” vs. 34% “not confident,” while for 2022 it came out 65% to 26%.

Pooling all the data together for one “meta-poll” gives a similar picture. Including 2020, 2022, and the coming 2024 election, the “all-three combined” number is 56% confident, 20% not confident, after subtracting out the “not sure” responses.

And, significantly, neither Republicans (27%) nor independents (49%) show a majority saying they are “confident” that the last three election outings have been fair and accurate. Only Democrats (85%) show an overwhelming confidence in our recent elections.

So, at best, it’s an open question as to whether Americans feel that recent elections have been conducted in accordance with our own laws. And that is troubling.

While voters seem sanguine on the coming elections, Democrats themselves are increasingly worried.

Their standard-bearer, President Biden, has shown a growing number of mental and behavioral issues that can no longer be ignored or excused. They include, recently, reciting the same anecdote twice, as if he never said it the first time, bizarrely crossing himself as he spoke with Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu, and snubbing Brazilian leader Luis Inacio Lula da Silva by wandering off-stage and not shaking hands following a joint appearance at a U.N. event.

Add in rampant inflation and growing concern over failing schools, soaring crime rates in major cities, and a growing cultural and racial divide in America, and Democrats have reason to worry. Recent polls show why.

Just this week, a shock Washington Post/ABC News Poll gives former President Donald Trump a 9-point lead over Biden, head to head. And a recent Rasmussen Reports survey found that, if the election has a strong third party candidate, 38% of voters would pick him or her over Biden or Trump. That includes half of both black and independent voters.

In yet another survey, a CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly 70% of independents said they were unhappy with Biden’s performance as president, with his favorability rating 38 points underwater.

This means big trouble for Biden, as Democrats now freely admit.

“You got to be concerned about those poll numbers, you just do,” Democratic Sen. Jon Tester told The Hill recently. “There’s plenty of time to get them back up. Whether he can or not, I just don’t know but you got to be concerned.”

Biden and Trump remain head-to-head in most generic voting polls. Republicans worry that Democrats will be tempted to, for lack of a better word, cheat to win the 2024 election, fearing a Trump redux presidency.

There is evidence of serious voting irregularities at the local level during both the 2020 and 2022 election cycles. Much of it had to do with expanded mail-in voting and loosened rules on in-person voting during the COVID lockdowns.

Republicans and independents have expressed concerns that another COVID “emergency” lockdown could again make our election system vulnerable to manipulation.

Worse, government officials and online social media recently have shown a less than admirable willingness to intervene in election outcomes.

A clear example of this was the “letter” signed by 51 former top intelligence and foreign policy experts in government calling the information contained on Hunter Biden’s laptop “Russian misinformation” that was intended to help Trump win the last election. That letter proved to be false and, ironically, itself likely constituted major election interference.

A further concern comes from the role played by social media giants, which have used algorithms and censored conservatives to tilt the debate toward favored Democratic initiatives and candidates.

A recent data analysis by the American Institute for Behavioral Research and Technology (AIBRT) concluded that Google “steered” as many as 6 million votes to Biden in 2020, mainly through manipulating search terms and “curating” search engine results “to show sources that Google ideologically agrees with.”

The 2022 film “2000 Mules” by conservative activist Dinesh D’Souza argued that the 2020 election was marred by massive cheating, largely through ballot-box stuffing by so-called mules in “key swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”

Mainstream media and social media have gone out of their way to “debunk” D’Souza’s documentary (a Google search of “2000 mules debunked” returns over 71,000 hits), with Democrats noting that even Trump’s Attorney General, William Barr, said the 2020 election was by-and-large clean.

Still, the idea still resonates with voters.

“2000 Mules” investigates “evidence of widespread cheating in the 2020 presidential election, is hitting home with voters who have seen the film,” noted Rasmussen Reports, citing its own 2022 poll that showed 77% of those who saw the film said it “strengthened their conviction that there was systematic and widespread election fraud in the 2020 election.” Just 19% said their conviction was weakened.

Meanwhile, the Heritage Foundation’s extensive election-fraud database cites 1,438 “proven instances of voter fraud” with over 1,240 convictions in recent elections, an indication of the seriousness of the problem nationwide.

Then, of course, there are what appear to many to be the coordinated legal actions against former President Trump, accompanied by recent Blue State attempts to remove Trump from 2024 election ballots.

Trump’s four pending criminal indictments, mainly for the Jan. 6 demonstrations in Washington, D.C., could lead to decades in prison — the ultimate election sanction. Will 2024 be a clean election? It remains to be seen. But right now, Americans are skeptical.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

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Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

 1. Wagner Forces Returning To Fight In Ukraine Will Not Change Frontlines Situation: ISW – Al Arabiya

The Washington-based think tank Institute of Study of War (ISW) stated, “Wagner forces are fragmented and are unlikely to organize into a cohesive fighting force or have an impact on Russian combat capabilities if they return to fighting in Ukraine.”

Former Luhansk Oblast administration head stated that Wagner personnel operate in Luhansk Oblast and across different frontline sectors.

2. Russia’s Oil Export Revenues To Rise This Year As It Evades The G7 Price Cap – Oilprice.com

An analysis of shipping and insurance records by the Financial Times has revealed that almost three-quarters of Russia’s seaborne oil exports didn’t use Western insurers.

By avoiding Western insurers, these exports can avoid the G7 price cap, boosting Russia’s oil export revenues and making the country a more independent seller.

Combined with the rally in oil prices, Russia’s increasing ability to avoid the price cap is set to see its oil export revenue rise by $15 billion this year.

3. Russian FM To Visit Pyongyang Next Month As Follow-Up To Kim-Putin Summit – Yonhap

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said he will visit North Korea next month as part of follow-up measures to the rare summit between their leaders earlier this month.

Kim and Putin held the summit at a Russian spaceport on Sept. 13, raising speculation North Korea may have reached a deal to supply ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine in exchange for food aid and the transfer of weapons technology.

4. “Deters New Investments”: EU Trade Chief Warns China Over Tough Laws, Russia Stance – AFP

The EU’s trade chief told Beijing that tough security laws and a more “politicized” business environment have left European companies struggling to understand their obligations and questioning their future in China.

China’s refusal to condemn ally Russia for its war in Ukraine also poses a “reputational risk” for the world’s second-largest economy, Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said in a speech at Beijing’s Tsinghua University.

5. The Shadowy Chinese Firm That Owns Chunks Of Cambodia – BBC

The Dara Sakor Seashore Resort in Cambodia is a grandiose scheme by a Chinese company, UDG, to build a self-contained tourist city, complete with an international airport, deep-sea port, power stations, hospitals, casinos, and luxury villas.

In 2008, UDG secured a 99-year lease for the project with a single deposit of $1m. This was for the right to develop 36,000 hectares initially, with 9,000 more added later.

As the land was inside the Botum Sakor National Park and greatly exceeded the legal limit of 10,000 hectares for any one project, it would have been very controversial – had anyone else known about it.

 6. South Korea: Presidential Office To Discuss With China On Xi’s Possible Visit To S. Korea

The office of President Yoon Suk Yeol will set out to arrange a visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to South Korea, a senior government official said.

Chinese President Xi said he would seriously consider visiting Seoul during his meeting with Prime Minister Han Duck-soo on the sidelines of the Asian Games, which is currently taking place in the eastern Chinese city of Hangzhou.

7. Distressed Developer China Oceanwide Declared Bankrupt In Bermuda – Nikkei Asia

China Oceanwide Holdings, a Beijing-based private developer, said a Bermuda court would wind the company up.

Trading of the company’s Hong Kong-listed shares was suspended from Monday morning due to the court decision and “will remain suspended until further notice,” according to the filing to the city’s exchange.

8. China Real Estate Will Pull Out Of Slump In 2024-25: Economist – Nikkei Asia

China’s economy needs more time and fiscal support to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, Chinese economist Zhang Yansheng said in an interview.

Debt-related rules for big real estate developers should also be relaxed, said Zhang, principal researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, a state-aligned think tank.

9. Electric Car Rules Could Cost Carmakers Billions – BBC

An industry body has said that new Brexit trade rules covering electric vehicles could cost European manufacturers £3.75bn over the next three years.

The main problem lies in so-called “rules of origin,” which come into force in January.

They will effectively ensure electric vehicles have batteries produced in the UK or the EU. Cars not meeting the criteria will face 10% tariffs – or taxes.

10. Iran Says It Defused 30 Bombs In Tehran, Detained 28 ISIS-Linked ‘Terrorists’ – Al Arabiya

Authorities in Iran have neutralized 30 bombs meant to go off simultaneously in Tehran and detained 28 “terrorists” linked to ISIS, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported.

The orchestrated attacks aimed to undermine security within Iran, portray it as unstable, and instill fear, the ministry said, adding that the planned attacks were intended to occur on the anniversary of last year’s anti-regime protests, which were triggered by Mahsa Amini’s death.

11. Saudi Delegation Expected To Visit West Bank: Palestinian Official – Reuters

A Saudi delegation is due to visit Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas this week, amid diplomatic efforts to secure an Israel-Saudi Arabia accord that could involve concessions for the Palestinians.

The visit comes after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said efforts were underway to reach an agreement normalizing relations between their countries.

12. Israeli Airstrikes Hit Gaza For The 3rd Day In A Row As West Bank Violence Intensifies – The Manila Times

Israeli airstrikes struck militant sites in Gaza on Sunday for the third straight day after Palestinian militants near the border fence launched incendiary balloons into Israel and threw an explosive at soldiers.

It was the latest bloodshed in a surge of violence during a sensitive Jewish holiday.

13. North Korean Opera Stars Are Giving Concerts To Encourage Farmers To Finish This Year’s Harvest – UPI

Opera singers and artists in North Korea give daily concerts at farms in the western part of the country to “encourage” farmers to finish this year’s harvest.

According to a news release from North Korea’s Central News Agency, the “art squad,” composed of musicians and artists from Pyongyang, performs daily at farms near the city of Nampho.

14. France To Withdraw Ambassador And Troops From Niger After Coup – RFI

“France has decided to withdraw its ambassador. In the next hours, our ambassador and several diplomats will return to France,” Macron told French television in an interview.

He added that military cooperation was “over,” and French troops would withdraw in “the months and weeks to come” with a full pullout “by the end of the year.”

France keeps about 1,500 soldiers in Niger as part of an anti-jihadist deployment in the Sahel region.

15. UK Army Put On Standby As London Police Hand In Weapons – D.W.

Britain on Sunday put its army on standby after several London police officers handed in their weapons in support of a fellow officer charged with murder over the fatal shooting of a young Black man.

Police in Britain are not routinely armed, and the small proportion (1 in 10 in London) who are authorized to carry guns are highly trained. According to a media report, around 100 Met police officers have stepped back from firearms duties.

16. Jailed Italian Mafia Boss Matteo Messina Denaro Is Dead: Reports – Al Jazeera

Italian Mafia boss Matteo Messina Denaro, captured in January after 30 years on the run, has died.

Messina Denaro, 61, died in the L’Aquila Hospital in Italy after slipping into an “irreversible coma” over the weekend.

Dubbed by the Italian press as “the last Godfather,” Messina Denaro once claimed to have murdered enough people to fill a cemetery.

17. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx Capsule Carrying Largest Asteroid Samples Lands On Earth – Al Jazeera

A NASA space capsule carrying the largest soil sample ever collected from the surface of an asteroid has landed in the Utah desert seven years after the mission’s launch.

Scientists estimate the capsule holds at least a cup of rubble from the carbon-rich asteroid known as Bennu but won’t know until the container is opened.

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights