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Recession in 2024?


Fact: Over the past 80 years, the Federal Reserve has not succeeded in significantly reducing inflation without triggering a recession.

Since March 2022, the Fed has raised interest rates 11 consecutive times, bringing its benchmark interest rate to 5.25%, the highest level in 22 years. Consequently, inflation has decreased from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% in November 2023. Core inflation, which represents the price rise of all items except food and energy, remains at 4.0%.

Applying Aristotelian modes ponens suggests that a recession must follow soon.

According to the latest Kudlow/TIPP Poll of over 1,400 Americans completed in early December, an overwhelming eighty percent of Americans are concerned about a recession in the next 12 months. While 44% are “very concerned,” another 36% are “somewhat concerned.”

That includes 73% of Democrats, 86% of Republicans, and 82% of independents.

Among the 36 demographic groups we track, the lowest share of concern was recorded by two-thirds of liberals at 67%.

Recession In 2024?

Already In A Recession?

The poll asked respondents if the U.S. economy is currently in a recession. One in two (50%) stated we are in a recession. About a quarter (27%) opined that we are not. And another 23% are not sure.

Most Republicans (58%) and independents (52%) think we are in a recession. On the other hand, only 41% of Democrats believe so. Meanwhile, 20 demographic groups think we are in a recession, while 16 don’t believe the economy is in one.

The pain of Bidenflation and financial worries plague Americans so much that many of them see the economy in a negative light, with recession as a way of describing the gloom.

Recession In 2024?

Recession In 2024?

Nearly two-thirds (64%) believe a recession is likely in 2024. That includes 29% who think a recession is “very likely” and another 35% who believe it is “somewhat likely.”

There is an agreement across political lines, with 57% of Democrats, 72% of Republicans, and 65% of independents anticipating a downturn.

Interestingly, there is a consensus, with a majority among all 36 demographic groups believing the economy is headed for a recession in 2024.

Recession In 2024?

Indicators such as weak tax revenue, an inverted yield curve, a declining private-public employment ratio (PPER), increasing credit card debt, rising delinquency rates for mortgages and auto loans, and a sluggish manufacturing sector all point to an economic slowdown.

On the other hand, a strong labor market that added 199,000 jobs in November and a historically low unemployment rate of 3.7% alleviate concerns about a recession.

Bringing down core inflation from its current 4% will be challenging for the Fed. This implies that the Fed is unlikely to ease interest rates soon, despite election-year politics and predictions made by some economists and commentators. Furthermore, due to Biden’s shift away from energy independence, geopolitical tensions on multiple fronts pose additional uncertainties to which the U.S. economy is not immune.

American consumers are still grappling with high interest rates and inflation that, while appearing to have eased on paper, remain stifling without real wage gains. Furthermore, the nation’s debt is leaping, set to cross $34 trillion, on an unsustainable trajectory. Consequently, consumers hold a gloomy outlook, and the belief in an impending recession in 2024 is growing, potentially becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.

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TIPP Takes

Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More

 1. U.S.: We’ve Talked To Israel About Making War More ‘Surgical’ – BBC

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says the U.S. has spoken to Israel about making the war in Gaza more “surgical.”

Recession In 2024?

Speaking in Tel Aviv, Austin reiterated U.S. support for Israel but discussed reducing harm to civilians and moving to “lower intensity operations.” Last night, three elderly men who were taken hostage were shown in a new Hamas video. The Israel military said the video was “despicable.”

2. U.S. Will ‘Continue’ Providing Arms To Israel, Says Austin – WION

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke in a joint press conference with Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv.

Recession In 2024?

During the press conference, Austin also warned Iran that it must ‘stop’ supporting Yemen’s Houthi rebels, who have been attacking ships in the Red Sea, which has already forced major ship operators and oil giants to stop using the waterways.

3. U.S. Announces Naval Task Force To Respond To Houthi Attacks In Red Sea – Al Arabiya

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced Operation Prosperity Guardian, which he said was in response to “reckless Houthi attacks” from Yemen in the Red Sea.

Recession In 2024?

Countries joining the naval task force include the UK, Bahrain, Canada, France, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Seychelles and Spain. U.S. officials have said they were looking at ways to expand an existing task force, Combined Task Force 153, which currently has its base in Bahrain. CTF-153 currently has 39 member nations.

4. UN Security Council Postpones Gaza Conflict Vote To Tuesday – Al Arabiya

A Security Council vote on the conflict in Gaza was postponed until Tuesday as negotiations continued over the document’s text.

Recession In 2024?

The proposal demands that Israel and Hamas allow aid access to the Gaza Strip – via land, sea, and air routes – and set up UN monitoring of the humanitarian assistance delivered.

5. Human Rights Watch Accuses Israel Of Intentionally Starving Civilians In Gaza – AFP

“The Israeli government is using starvation of civilians as a method of warfare in the occupied Gaza Strip, which is a war crime,” the New York-based group charged in a report.

Recession In 2024?

“Israeli forces are deliberately blocking the delivery of water, food, and fuel while willfully impeding humanitarian assistance, apparently razing agricultural areas, and depriving the civilian population of objects indispensable to their survival,” it added.

The Israeli government hit back at HRW, accusing it of being an “anti-Semitic and anti-Israeli organization.”

6. ‘Nonsense’: Putin Rejects Biden Claim That Russia Plans To Attack NATO – Al Jazeera

The Russian president has dismissed the U.S. claims that Moscow could attack a NATO country in the future as “complete nonsense,” saying such a conflict would run counter to his country’s interests.

Recession In 2024?

Vladimir Putin made the statement in an interview with Russian state TV weeks after President Joe Biden warned that if Putin achieved victory in Ukraine, he might be encouraged to attack a NATO ally, sparking a third world war.

7. White House Plans Additional Military Aid Package For Ukraine, Needs Congressional Action – RFE/RL

The White House said it plans to release one additional package of military aid for Ukraine before the end of the year. Still, it said it would have to “replenish authority available to us” and that “we need Congress to act without delay” on further funding.

Recession In 2024?

The amount of the planned next aid package for Ukraine was not disclosed.

8. Finland Signs Military Cooperation Agreement With U.S. After Putin Threat – AFP

Finland signed an agreement to enhance military cooperation with the United States, a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin warned the neighboring country over its entrance into NATO.

Recession In 2024?

The agreement formalizes greater ties with Washington in line with Finland’s NATO accession in April. Defense Minister Antti Hakkanen, in Washington to sign the pact, hailed it as a “strong sign of U.S. commitment to the defense of Finland and the whole of Northern Europe.”

9. Navalny Again Absent For Court Hearings As U.N. Cites ‘Enforced Disappearance’ – UPI

Imprisoned Russian dissident Alexey Navalny failed to appear for several legal hearings scheduled for Monday, further heightening international concerns over his whereabouts.

Recession In 2024?

One of the fiercest critics of Putin and his government, Navalny has not been in contact with his legal team for ten days and has been seriously ill.

Mariana Katzarova, U.N. special rapporteur on human rights in the Russian Federation, said in a statement the uncertainty over his whereabouts after such a prolonged period “amounts to enforced disappearance.”

10. China Real Estate Crash Would Threaten Goal Of Doubling GDP: Report – Nikkei Asia

If the Chinese real estate bubble bursts and triggers a financial crisis, its economic growth will be stuck at around 1%, jeopardizing its goal of doubling GDP by 2035, the Japan Center for Economic Research says in a new report.

Recession In 2024?

The report projects GDP growth for 18 Asia-Pacific countries and regions through 2035, with annual updates made to reflect the latest policies and economic conditions.

11. Taiwan Reports More Suspected Chinese Weather Balloons Crossing Taiwan Strait – Reuters

Two suspected Chinese weather balloons flew across the sensitive Taiwan Strait on Sunday but stayed well to the north of Taiwan. For the second time this month, Taipei has reported them nearby.

Recession In 2024?

Taiwan is on high alert for Chinese activities, both military and political, ahead of the Jan. 13 presidential and parliamentary election. Taipei has warned of Beijing’s efforts to interfere in the ballot to get voters to pick candidates China may prefer.

12. Hong Kong: China ‘Anxious’ As World Watches Jimmy Lai Trial – D.W.

As the founder of Apple Daily — a popular news outlet critical of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) — Lai was charged with conspiring to collude with foreign forces and publish seditious material.

Recession In 2024?

Experts have noted signs of concern from Beijing since its legal moves are closely monitored worldwide. On Friday, Hong Kong police released a new bounty list of five overseas activists accused of violating national security laws. Announcing a bounty list can be a way to divert international attention, analyst Eric Lai said.

13. China’s Xi Calls For “All-Out” Operation After Devastating Earthquake – ANI

At least 111 people have been killed in China’s Gansu and neighboring Qinghai provinces after the strong 6.2-magnitude earthquake, state media Xinhua reported, citing local earthquake relief headquarters.

Recession In 2024?

Regarding the situation, Chinese President Xi Jinping has urged ‘all-out’ search and rescue efforts and proper arrangements for affected people to ensure the safety of people’s lives and property.

14. U.S. Assessing Military Responses To Iran-Backed Attacks In Middle East – Al Arabiya

U.S. defense and military officials have been deliberating over a response to Iran-backed attacks across the Middle East as they await the green light from the Biden administration.

Recession In 2024?

U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria have been targeted over 100 times since October 17, which was just ten days after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel.

15. Sky-High Inflation Takes A Toll On Mental Health In Argentina – Al Jazeera

Argentina, the third-largest economy in Latin America, has been beset by financial turmoil for decades, fuelled by political instability and massive international debt.

Recession In 2024?

Against that backdrop, mental health professionals are reporting an increase in stress-related conditions and economic anxiety.

Argentina has the highest per-capita rate of psychologists in the world – 194 psychologists for every 100,000 Argentinians, according to a 2015 study.

Related Editorial: Side Effects Of Dr. Fed’s Medicine Are Worse Than The Inflation Disease

16. Pope Says Roman Catholic Priests Can Bless Same-Sex Couples – BBC

Pope Francis, the leader of the Roman Catholic Church, said priests should be permitted to bless same-sex and “irregular” couples under certain circumstances.

Recession In 2024?

However, the Vatican said blessings should not be part of regular Church rituals or related to civil unions or weddings. It added that it views marriage as between a man and a woman.

The declaration represents a softening of tone from the Catholic Church, although not a change in position.

17. Use Of CBD, Other Hemp Products Widens In U.S. – UPI

The market for cannabidiol (CBD) and other products derived from the hemp plant is now wide open in the U.S., but that could bring danger to consumers, the authors of a new study warn.

Recession In 2024?

The study found that even if respondents lived in a state where the use of medical or recreational marijuana was illegal, they were more likely to use legal hemp-derived products. That’s a concern, study lead author Kevin Boehnke said, since these products face little regulation or safety monitoring.

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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights

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