Thomas More, a 16th-century English lawyer, judge, and social philosopher, famously said in his 1534 book, Dialogue of Comfort Against Tribulation, that “a drowning man will clutch at a straw.”
He could well be talking about today’s Democrats who are willing to do anything to save their sinking ship. The straw, of course, is the issue of abortion, which worked well for them in 2022 after a rare strategic leak from an activist at the Supreme Court in April of that year, followed by the Dobbs decision that outlawed constitutional protections guaranteed in Roe v. Wade.
Although the Democrats lost the House in 2022, the GOP victory was only marginal, showing the power of abortion as an electoral issue. With frequent retirements by Republican In Name Only (RINO) legislators since then, the GOP currently has a precarious one-seat majority.
Fast-forward to this week, and the abortion issue was chugging along without much media coverage. The press has been consumed by foreign policy fallouts of the Biden administration, in particular, the way history clocked six months of war in Gaza with no end in sight. The humanitarian disaster of innocent women and children facing the prospect of famine has energized the left wing of the Democratic party. It is threatening Biden’s reelection chances in Michigan, a critical swing state with a sizable Muslim population. Complicating matters were Israel’s airstrikes against Iranian Quds Force and Revolutionary Guard leaders in Damascus, a vow that Iran would retaliate, and the administration’s warning that Americans in Israel are at physical risk.
Suddenly, the Democrats saw an opening to restoke the abortion issue when two separate storylines broke.
First, President Trump fired the opening salvo by saying on his Truth Social network that he would not take a position on a federal law limiting or permitting abortion, leaving it all to the states, just like the Dobbs decision elegantly said. It was a brilliant move from a disciplined Trump, who, unlike in 2016, 2020, and 2022, is listening to senior professional campaign officials who are not his family. (Had he hired the same campaign officials in 2020 who are running his campaign now, he likely would have won in a landslide.)
Second, Arizona was in the news again. The Arizona Supreme Court, interpreting the Dobbs decision, breathed new life into a long-dormant 1864 law that banned all abortions, with no exceptions for rape or incest. The law is so old that it was enacted 58 years before Arizona even became a state, in 1912.
The Democrats pounced on the developments, seeing that the straw became thicker and more robust. Vice President Kamala Harris traveled to Arizona on Friday to hold Trump responsible for the Arizona Supreme Court decision with a simple message: “Donald Trump did this.” In the Democrats’ telling, Trump appointed a list of conservative justices to the Supreme Court, which outlawed Roe v. Wade. But overturning Roe is not the same as outlawing abortion.
Recall that in Dobbs, the state of Mississippi sought to ban most abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. The critical issues in the case were whether the state’s ban on pre-viability abortions was constitutional under the Supreme Court’s previous rulings in Roe v. Wade, Planned Parenthood v. Casey, and Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt. By a 6-3 decision in Dobbs, the Roberts Court overturned Roe v. Wade and reasoned that abortion, much like most life’s events – like birth, driving, marriage, divorce, and death – should be governed by states.
Conservatives generally view the Dobbs decision as a victory for their cause. Overturning Roe v. Wade had been a rallying cry for them for decades. They believe that the decision affirms the right of states to regulate abortion and to protect the unborn, which they see as a fundamental human right. Conservatives argue that the decision is a victory for the pro-life movement and a step towards a society that values and protects all human life, including that of the unborn.
While 14 deeply conservative states have tightened abortion restrictions, liberal states have significantly promoted abortion access, such as California and New Jersey, where abortion is legal until viability. This was the point of Dobbs. Each state could do what it saw fit. [According to the National Institutes of Health, fetal viability refers to the time a fetus can survive outside the uterus. A viable fetus is contrasted with a fetus that cannot survive outside of the pregnancy].
During last year’s debates, many GOP contenders forgot the elegant nature of the Dobbs decision and began to envision a federal role in regulating abortion. Only North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis agreed that the matter has now irreversibly and correctly moved to the states, a position that Trump, as the Republican nominee, has now wisely taken.
The problem with the current Democratic attack is that nearly two years after Dobbs, Americans now know that the Supreme Court did not outlaw abortions in America but sent the matter to the states in an ode to the supremacy of the Tenth Amendment.
In 2024, Americans will elect a president, not just the House and a third of the Senate. Even for younger voters for whom abortion could be a significant electoral issue, many more crucial problems remain, such as inflation, very high interest rates, the rising federal debt, the administration’s positions on the Israel-Gaza war, illegal immigration, crime in the inner cities, and a general sense that the country is on the wrong track. Biden’s approval numbers have hovered around 40% since the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal.
2024 is a referendum election on Biden and the Democrats. It is not 2022, and even the abortion question will not neutralize Biden’s troubles. Nice try, Kamala Harris.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israel Vows Retaliation Over Iran Attack After Calls For Restraint – BBC
Israel is considering its response to an unprecedented attack by Iran on Saturday in which 300 missiles and drones were launched. Israel’s war cabinet met on Monday but did not say what they had decided to do.
Israeli Army chief Herzi Halevi told reporters Iran’s attacks over the weekend “will be met with a response.”
Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke to his Iranian counterpart last night, Beijing state media says, reporting that Iran said it was “willing to exercise restraint” after it attacked Israel.
2. ‘The Best’ For Putin: How The Kremlin Stands To Gain From Iran’s Attack On Israel – RFE/RL
After several hours of silence following Iran’s missile-and-drone attack on Israel, Russia issued its first formal reaction: The Foreign Ministry voiced what it said was Moscow’s “extreme concern” over “the latest dangerous escalation in the region.”
Analysts say that a full-scale war in the Middle East would not be in the interests of President Vladimir Putin’s government. For now, though, it seems more likely that the Kremlin is enthusiastic about a development that could play into Putin’s hands in several ways, most of them directly connected to Russia’s war on Ukraine.
For one thing, it draws attention away from the war in Ukraine at a crucial time when Kyiv is facing major challenges on the front line.
3. Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Says Israel’s Response To An Iranian Aerial Attack Shows What Kyiv Needs – A.P.
The success of Israel and its allies in largely thwarting a massive Iranian missile and drone attack shows what Ukraine could achieve against Russian aerial barrages if it had more support from its partners, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Israel’s defense system, with assistance from the U.S. and Britain — countries that are also supporting Ukraine’s war effort — is credited with preventing serious damage or casualties in Sunday’s attack by Iran using more than 300 drones and missiles.
Kuleba, speaking to reporters in Kyiv, urged Ukraine’s allies to “give us what we need, and we will do the rest of the job.”
4. China’s GDP Growth Accelerates To 5.3%, Defying Expectations – Nikkei Asia
The first-quarter result, announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, was slightly above the 5.2% in the last quarter of 2023. It comfortably beat the average forecast of 4.5% by 31 economists in a poll by Nikkei last month.
The momentum creates a “strong foundation” for achieving annual development targets, the bureau said in a statement. China officially aims for GDP growth of “around 5%” this year.
5. Chinese Officials: HK Security Law’s Critics Are Insects – AFP
Top Chinese officials in charge of Hong Kong affairs lashed out at critics of the city’s new national security law, calling them “mantises and flies.”
“A few mantises and flies would not stop Hong Kong’s development,” Xia Baolong, Beijing’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office chief, said in a speech during the city’s official celebration of China’s National Security Education Day.
6. Scholz Welcomes Chinese Cars But Urges ‘Fair’ Competition – D.W.
While visiting Shanghai, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has argued that the European market must be open to Chinese cars. However, he said that competition must be fair.
While Germany’s economy has benefited from Chinese demand for products like cars and chemicals, ties have been strained, with German companies arguing they face unjust market barriers in China.
7. Japan Vows To Promote Strategic, Mutually Beneficial Ties With China – Kyodo News
In its annual foreign policy report, Japan pledged to pursue strategic and mutually beneficial relations with China, even as the two countries remain at odds over various issues. It also recognized the importance of dialogue.
The 2024 Diplomatic Bluebook said Japan will promote a “mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests” with China, using the wording last seen in the 2019 report. However, the neighboring country poses “an unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge.”
8. China’s ‘Alarming’ Sway In Solomon Islands Decried – AFP
The Solomon Islands has warmly embraced China under mercurial Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, with the two nations inking a murky security pact in 2022.
A torrent of Chinese aid and investment has flowed into the country during Sogavare’s five years at the helm, and the 69-year-old has vowed to further deepen these ties if reelected.
Sogavare has repeatedly denied that China threatens the country and has warned Washington and Canberra to stop meddling in his affairs.
9. ChatGPT Rival ‘Ernie Bot’ Now Has 200 Million Users, China’s Baidu Says – Al Jazeera
Baidu CEO Robin Li also said Ernie Bot’s application programming interface (API) is being used 200 million times every day, meaning the chatbot was requested by its user to conduct tasks that many times a day.
Last March, Ernie Bot was the first locally developed ChatGPT-like chatbot announced in China. Still, it only won approval for public release in August, becoming one of the first eight AI chatbots Beijing authorized.
10. ‘Appreciate Iran’s Restraint’ Towards Israel, Tehran Tells Western Nations – Al Arabiya
“Instead of making accusations against Iran, [Western] countries should blame themselves and answer to public opinion for the measures they have taken against the… war crimes committed by Israel” in its war against Hamas in Gaza, said Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani.
The spokesman added that Western countries “should appreciate Iran’s restraint in recent months.” Western governments have condemned Iran over its unprecedented drone and missile attack on Israel, which Tehran insists was an act of “self-defense.”
11. Iran’s Advance Notice Of Attack On Israel Raises Questions – Al Arabiya
Iran’s signaling of the attack beforehand allowed Israel and its allies sufficient time to prepare defenses, rendering the assault largely ineffective, Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Brew said.
“This would suggest Iran intended this attack to be largely symbolic and designed to restore deterrence rather than inflicting damage on Israel. The telegraphing also emphasizes how Iran hopes to avoid escalation with both Israel and the U.S. in the short term,” he said.
12. U.S. Approves Possible Sale Of Aircraft Support To Iraq; Baghdad Wants More – Al Arabiya
The U.S. approved the possible sale of aircraft support to Iraq, the Pentagon said, the same day that Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani made his first official visit to Washington.
The Pentagon said the $140 million sale will include support and training for Iraq’s C-172 and AC/RC-208 aircraft.
The Pentagon said the sale will support the U.S. foreign policy and national security “by helping to improve the security of a strategic partner.” Northrop Grumman will be the principal contractor.
13. Japan Readies Antitrust Action Against Google Over Search Ads – Nikkei Asia
Nikkei has learned that Japan’s antitrust watchdog is planning to pressure Google to voluntarily reform its business practices over alleged unfair restrictions on a search advertising partnership with Yahoo.
According to a source familiar with the situation, the Japan Fair Trade Commission has been investigating the Alphabet unit over keyword-targeted search ad technology it provides to Yahoo, now a subsidiary of Line operator LY Corp. Google is believed to have already submitted an improvement plan to prevent the problem from happening again, which the agency is expected to soon accept.
14. France Drums Up $2 Billion For Sudan A Year Into ‘Forgotten’ War – Al Arabiya
France and its allies drummed up aid pledges of over two billion euros ($2.1 billion) for Sudan a year after civil war erupted, sparking one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza have crowded out attention to Sudan’s plight from the international community.
With the conference in Paris, “our duty was to show that we are not forgetting what is going on in Sudan and there are no double standards” as the world focuses on other crises, Macron said.
15. NOAA Says Fourth Global Coral Bleaching Event Underway – UPI
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced that the world’s oceans are now undergoing the fourth global coral bleaching event on record and the second in the last ten years.
NOAA’s scientists have documented “extensive” bleaching-level heat stress on coral reefs across the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean basins during the past 14 months, the agency said in a release, leading to their assessment.
Scientists blame the phenomenon on the warming of the Earth’s oceans, including last year’s unprecedented marine heatwave in Florida.
16. Exercise May Benefit Heart By Calming The Brain, Study Shows – HealthDay News
A team at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) in Boston explained that physical activity can lower stress levels within the brain.
“Physical activity was roughly twice as effective in lowering cardiovascular disease risk among those with depression,” noted Dr. Ahmed Tawakol, study lead author and cardiologist at MGH.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
