Following President Joe Biden’s abysmal performance in the June 27 debate with former President Donald Trump, you might think he would suffer a crash in his support for re-election. Even the media describe the Democratic Party’s response to Biden’s poor showing as “panic.” Will voters abandon Biden? They haven’t yet, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows, but signs of trouble loom.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll, answered by 1,244 registered voters from June 26-28, includes last Thursday’s debate night. So the final day of the poll includes that information. Did it have an impact?
In a head-to-head matchup, the I&I/TIPP data show Biden holding a slender 43% to 41% lead against former President Donald Trump. The poll has a +/-2.8 percentage point margin of error, meaning that the two major party candidates remain statistically in a tie.
Once again, both major parties, Democrats (87% support Biden) and Republicans (88% support Trump) are predictably partisan in their support. But among independents, a de facto third party in American politics, it’s close: 34% Trump, 33% Biden.
The difference? “Other.” For Democrats, just 5% say they want someone other than Biden, while for Republicans it’s even smaller, at 3%. But for independents, 19% say they want someone else.
The big question is: Whom do the independents, the swing voters that often decide elections, want?
Apart from the head-to-head matchup, I&I/TIPP also asked whom voters would prefer with the three independent or third party candidates added to the mix: Independent lawyer/activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., independent activist and former Harvard professor Cornel R. West, and Green Party standard bearer Jill Stein.
When asked this way, Biden’s support falls to 40%, vs. 39% for Trump.
Among the independent/third-party candidates, Kennedy gathers 10% support, West 2%, Stein 1%, and “other” 2%, for a total of 15%.
So, at least for now, the race remains too close to call. But is it really?
I&I/TIPP asks another question to gauge whether voters support their chosen candidate “strongly or moderately.”
Here, things change a bit. For Trump, 70% say they support him “strongly,” while 29% support him “moderately,” for a total of 99%. Just 1% said they weren’t sure.
For Biden, just 57% characterize their support as “strong,” while 40% call it “moderate,” and 3% say they aren’t sure.
As for Kennedy, by far the leading third party or independent candidate, the support isn’t very strong: Just 32% of his backers say they support him strongly, while 58% say they support him moderately and 9% say they’re not sure.
In sum: With a little over four months to go, Trump’s support remains solid, Biden’s less so, and Kennedy looks like the classic third-party candidate who attracts votes, but not enough to win. Only enough to possibly cost another candidate the election.
For further hidden elements of strength/weakness for the various candidates, I&I/TIPP also asked the following: “Regardless of your candidate preference, who do you expect to win the presidential election in November?”
There, Trump wins, with 40% to Biden’s 35%. Another 15% describe it as too close to call, while 8% say they “don’t know enough to answer one way or the other.”
Among Dems, just 70% say they think Biden will win, versus 9% who say Trump will win, 15% who describe it as too close to call, and 6% who say they don’t know enough to answer. Republicans, with 82% predicting a Trump victory, while only 5% say Biden will win, and 8% think it’s too close to call.
Independents, as always, move somewhere between the two big parties. Among the indie and third party voters, 28% predict a Biden win, compared to 33% who pick Trump. Another 19% say it’s too close to call, and 14% aren’t sure.
Another question asked to discern hidden strengths and weaknesses of the main candidates: “To the best of your knowledge, if the presidential election were held today, who do you believe most of your neighbors would vote for?”
Again, Trump wins with 43%, compared to 34% for Biden and 22% “not sure.” While 65% of Dems say their neighbors will vote for Biden, 77% of GOP members say those who live in their neighborhood will vote Trump. For independents, its 38% Trump, 28% Biden and a whopping 32% “not sure.”
One final note: Last month’s I&I/TIPP Poll asked registered voters who they would win last week’s debate. By 42% to 36%, respondents said Trump would prevail. This week, the media consensus on all sides of the debate is that Trump emerged victorious over a tired and at times confused 81-year-old Biden. So the I&I/TIPP Poll respondents called it correctly.
But Biden’s performance in the debate was so bad, it’s not clear he can continue as the Democratic Party nominee. Biden was reported to be meeting with family and possibly Democratic Party officials on Sunday to chart a course forward.
But initial poll readings on the aftermath of the Thursday night debate debacle isn’t favorable for Biden. In fact, he’s in deep trouble, especially within his own party, with some officials now quietly saying he should step aside.
A CBS/YouGov Poll taken after the debate found that 72% believe Biden doesn’t have the “mental & cognitive health to serve as president.” That includes half of Democrats.
“The president, at times, showed difficulty stringing ideas together and overall appeared tired,” noted The Hill. “A rising number of Democratic voters, including some unnamed lawmakers, have called on Biden to step aside and allow a different candidate to take the party’s nomination.”
But, even before the debate, Biden was in trouble with the electorate for his fading mental faculties. The I&I/TIPP Poll reported on June 17 that nearly half of all voters gave Biden failing grades for “mental acuity.”
Now reports are emerging even from within the White House of Biden’s growing mental issues. The left-leaning news site Axios on Saturday published a report saying “top aides have meticulously stage-managed minutiae such as Biden’s sleep schedule, his orthopedic shoes, his walks to Marine One and his climb aboard Air Force One to try to blunt concerns about his age.”
White House insiders portray a president who is only “dependably engaged” from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. every day.
And even if the Dems want to replace Biden, it will not be easy.
As former FEC Commissioner Trey Trainor wrote in the Daily Caller, that the difficulties of replacing a winning candidate run up against “the complex mechanics of replacing a nominee across the 50 states, each governed by its own set of election laws and regulations.”
However, if Biden willingly steps aside, the picture changes, because Democratic National Committee rules would kick in, allowing “all delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”
The implosion of Biden’s presidency may have begun with his dismal performance in Thursday’s debate against Trump. Democratic Party voters, as of yet, don’t know whether Biden will be their nominee or not.
Big questions loom: Even if Biden decides to go, can Democrats find a winning replacement for him, especially after building up Biden’s “successes” over the past three and a half years? Who would Dems want? Can they get dispirited and angry rank-and-file Democrat voters to show up at the polls in November?
For now, Biden and Trump remain roughly equal in the polls. But with the post-debate political developments happening so quickly, a big change in the polling numbers seems likely in the coming days and weeks.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Israeli Army Orders New Evacuations In Southern Gaza, Residents Flee – Al Arabiya
The Israeli army issued a new evacuation order for parts of Khan Younis and Rafah in southern Gaza, with witnesses reporting that many were fleeing.
The warning for al-Qarara, Bani Suhaila, and other towns in the two governorates, made on social media and in an official statement, came hours after Israel said 20 “projectiles” were fired into Israel from the Khan Younis region – an attack claimed by the armed wing of the Palestinian militant group Islamic Jihad. Israel had already staged airstrikes in Rafah on Monday.
2. Hamas Leader Calls For Palestinian Democracy – UPI
Husam Badran, a member of the Hamas Political Bureau, has called for a national consensus democracy to take root in a unified Palestine as he encouraged armed Palestinians in the West Bank to resist Israeli occupation.
Badran said Hamas envisions a Palestine uniting Gaza and the West Bank, as well as East Jerusalem, under one government in which all Palestinian factions can take part in governance.
Israel has said it will only accept a ceasefire if Hamas no longer runs Gaza.
3. Director Of Al-Shifa Hospital Released By Israel Says Was Tortured While In Custody – A.P.
Israel released Mohammed Abu Selmia, the director of Gaza’s main hospital, after holding him for seven months over allegations the facility had been used as a Hamas command center.
He said he and other detainees were held under harsh conditions and tortured.
Abu Selmia and other health officials have repeatedly denied the accusations of Hamas’ alleged use of Al-Shifa Hospital, and the fact that he was released without charge or trial was likely to raise further questions about them.
4. Russia Says Is Studying An Intact U.S. ATACMS Missile Guidance System – Reuters
Russian forces have captured an intact guidance system from a long-range U.S.-made ATACMS missile and are studying the American military technology, Russia’s RIA state news agency said.
Washington began supplying Ukraine with the long-range ATACMS several months ago, after two years of having rebuffed requests from Kyiv for weapons with such a range. Russia says the United States assists Ukraine in firing them, which Washington denies.
5. UN Body Condemns Russian Satellite Interference In Europe – Reuters
The International Telecommunications Union (ITU) reviewed a series of complaints about satellite interference from France, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Ukraine in recent months.
The countries said Russia had jammed GPS signals, endangered air traffic control, and interrupted children’s TV channels to show violent images of the Ukraine war. Moscow, which denies breaking ITU rules, had also complained about alleged satellite interference by NATO countries.
6. Hungarian PM Viktor Orban To Meet Zelenskyy On Trip To Ukraine – Reuters
The Financial Times reported that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban will visit Kyiv on Tuesday, his first trip after Russia invaded its smaller neighbor in 2022, to meet with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The visit by Orban, an outspoken critic of Western military aid to Ukraine, will take place a day after Hungary assumed the rotating presidency of the European Union Council.
7. China Starts Smartphone Inspections To Boost Anti-Espionage Efforts – Kyodo News
China implemented new regulations under its toughened counterespionage law, which enables authorities to inspect smartphones, personal computers, and other electronic devices, raising fears among expatriates and foreign businesspeople about possible arbitrary enforcement.
The new rules empower Chinese national security authorities to inspect data, including emails, pictures, and videos stored on electronic devices. Such inspections can be conducted without warrants in emergencies.
8. Xi Is A ‘Dictator’ Who Broke Hong Kong Treaty, Ex-Governor Says – RFA
Chinese President Xi Jinping is a “dictator” who broke his country’s 1984 treaty with the United Kingdom about Hong Kong and should not be trusted, the last governor of the former British colony has said.
In a video released by the London-based Hong Kong Watch ahead of Monday’s 27th anniversary of the July 1, 1997, handover of the territory from British to Chinese control, Chris Patten said Beijing had not lived up to the terms of its deal with the United Kingdom.
9. Beijing Pressed Laos To Include Taiwan In Visa Policy For Chinese Visitors: Taipei – RFA
Taiwan’s foreign ministry said Laos’s decision to include Taiwan in a policy to attract more Chinese tourists was made under pressure from Beijing and aimed at giving the false impression that Taiwan is part of China.
The Lao government announced that Chinese nationals may visit without a visa for up to 15 days as part of a group tour. It also provided an itinerary approved by its Ministry of Information, Culture, and Tourism. The policy also applies to tourists from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan.
10. Armenia, Azerbaijan Claim Progress In Border Delimitation Talks – REF/RL
A short statement by the Armenian government said the Armenian and Azerbaijani government commissions on border delimitation have proposed to each other draft regulations for their joint work and should work out a relevant common document “soon.”
The 1991 declaration committed Armenia, Azerbaijan, and other ex-Soviet states to recognize each other’s Soviet-era borders, but it does not contain a detailed description of those borders.
11. ‘Patriots For Europe’: Hungary’s Orban Announces New EU Parliament Alliance – Al Jazeera
Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) led by Herbert Kickl, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s Fidesz, and the populist Czech ANO party led by Andrej Babis are forming a new alliance in the European Parliament.
According to Orban, the three men signed a “patriotic manifesto,” promising “peace, security and development” instead of the “war, migration and stagnation” brought by the “Brussels elite.”
12. EU Charges Meta In Latest Hit On Big Tech – Al Jazeera
The European Commission (EC) has charged Meta with breaching the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) via its new “pay or consent” advertising model.
The charge follows the tech giant’s launch of the no-ads subscription service for Facebook and Instagram in Europe last November. The move is the European Union executive’s latest against Big Tech since the DMA came into force earlier this year.
Meta offers users a choice between being targeted by ads based on their data or paying to avoid them.
13. North Korea Claims To Have Test-Fired New Type Of Ballistic Missile – Kyodo News
North Korea said it successfully test-fired a new type of ballistic missile capable of carrying a 4.5-ton-class warhead and said it planned to conduct another test within the month.
North Korea’s state-run Korean Central News Agency said the new tactical ballistic missile is called Hwasongpho-11 Da-4.5. According to South Korea’s military, North Korea fired two ballistic missiles on Monday in a northeasterly direction, including one that may have failed and fallen inland.
14. South Korea Resumes Border Artillery Drills On Land For 1st Time In 6 Years – Yonhap
The drills came nearly a month after South Korea fully suspended the 2018 inter-Korean military agreement on June 4 in the wake of North Korea’s trash balloon campaigns and attempts to disrupt GPS signals near border islands.
The suspension enabled South Korea to resume drills to bolster front-line defenses.
15. Diet That Limits Ultra-Processed Foods Isn’t Automatically Healthy, Study Shows – UPI Health
According to the NOVA Food Classification System, researchers compared two menus that reflect a typical Western diet: one that emphasizes minimally processed foods and the other that focuses on the ultra-processed variety.
The less-processed menu was more than double in price and reached its expiration date more than three times more quickly without providing additional nutritional value.
This outcome demonstrated that “both ultra-processed and less processed foods can have a low healthy eating score,” Allen Levine, a professor emeritus at the University of Minnesota, said.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
