In the wake of President Joe Biden’s not-so-surprising decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, two big questions still loom: Did the big media intentionally underplay his growing mental and physical issues? And should Biden be allowed to finish out his term? A majority of voters answer with a resounding “yes” to the first, and half say “yes” to the second, according to July’s I&I/TIPP Poll.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll queried 1,389 registered voters from June 26-28, a period that included Biden’s disastrous debate performance, but just before a chorus of both the media and establishment Democrats began to call for him to resign.
Biden’s decision to halt his campaign for a second term now calls attention to the media’s role in downplaying his obvious mental decline over the past 3 1/2 years. Biden’s stumbling performance in the June 27 debate with Trump led to an abrupt reversal by the media, which only this month began aggressively questioning Biden’s deteriorating condition.
A Media Coverup?
I&I/TIPP asked voters: “Do you agree or disagree that the mainstream press is covering up President Biden’s mental and physical problems because they fear it would help Trump?”
Among all those responding, 59% said they either agreed “strongly” (38%) or “somewhat” (21%). Just 31% disagreed, with 12% saying they disagreed “somewhat” and 19% saying they disagreed “strongly.” Ten percent were “not sure.”
The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points.
Once again, the two main parties appeared to inhabit separate universes of opinion, while independents and third parties existed somewhere in between.
Among Democrats, 37% agreed that the media has soft-pedaled Biden’s age-related mental infirmities, while 53% disagreed and 10% weren’t sure.
For Republicans, a sizable 85% agreed the media was covering up for Biden’s mental issues, compared to just 11% who didn’t agree. As for independents and third-party supporters, the comparable figures were 58% agreed vs. 28% disagreed.
So the bulk of Americans saw the media as complicit in hiding Biden’s mental slide.
In recent weeks, the media turned against Biden, particularly after his poor debate performance against Trump and recent public remarks, including a tightly-scripted press conference where Biden again seemed to struggle to speak and clearly express his thoughts.
Should Biden Be Forced From Office?
Following the public revelations of Biden’s frailty, factions within the Democratic Party, shocked at polls showing Trump beating Biden handily, worked behind the scenes to have him removed as the party’s candidate in 2024 — by directly pressuring Biden leading up to the Democratic National Convention, and by threatening to deploy the 25th Amendment of the Constitution.
That amendment allows for the replacement of a president who “is unable to discharge the powers and duties” of the presidency by a vote of his Cabinet, or “principal officers of the executive departments.”
The sitting president, after such a vote, is then replaced by the vice president, in this case, Kamala Harris.
With this possibility in mind, I&I/TIPP asked the following: “Given recent video evidence, do you think Biden’s cabinet should consider invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office?” The possible responses given were “yes,” “no” and “not sure.”
By 50% (yes) to 35% (no), Americans responded that they thought Biden should be removed from office and replaced by Harris. “Not sure” was the response of 15%.
Even among Democrats, nearly a third (30%) said Biden should be replaced by Harris, compared to a Dem majority of 54% who say he shouldn’t be replaced. Republicans, not at all surprisingly, were far more favorable to the idea: 75% yes, vs. just 15% no. Independent voters again straddled the two main parties, with a strong plurality of 47% yes vs. 33% no.
In what would have augured certain political trouble for Biden if he hadn’t dropped out of the race, the Northeast, Midwest, and South were identical in their “yes” responses at 52%; only the West, at 45%, was less than a majority.
In short, a majority or plurality of all four regions of the nation want Biden out, even if it meant replacing him with his untested vice president.
No Clear Path Forward
Given such dismal numbers, Biden had little choice but to drop out. Indeed, as a Wall Street Journal editorial headline last week said, “Democrats Prepare for the Biden Coup.”
It came Sunday, after former political supporters and financial backers began to pull their support.
There’s little doubt that Biden’s own internal polling, and that of the Democratic Party, showed glaring weaknesses for him going forward. Perhaps the coup de grace came Sunday with a CBS News Poll showing Trump opening up a five-point lead nationally.
Both the media and Biden, and by extension the Democratic Party as well, dug themselves into a deep hole when it comes to their perceived dishonesty by American voters.
In the case of the big media, they’ve gone from vehemently defending Biden’s mental acuity to climbing on the bandwagon to have him removed from office, either voluntarily or by the 25th Amendment.
Biden chose the former course, and immediately backed Harris to succeed him.
For Biden, his decision to quit the race and support Harris won’t heal what now ails the Democratic Party, as some observers pointed out.
The timing couldn’t be worse, wrote the National Review’s Jeffrey Blehar: “In late July. After the primary. After the first debate. A month before the Democratic convention. With no agreed-upon successor, nobody vetted, nobody remotely acceptable to all factions of the Democratic Party. Party delegates are enraged, disunited, and confused. Protesters are out in the streets.”
From here, there’s no clear path forward for the Democrats. Party leaders mostly prefer a so-called open convention. With Biden out of the race, if no other candidate wins a majority of the delegates’ votes on the first ballot, the convention becomes “open.”
That means delegates would be free to vote for whomever they wish. After that, candidates could then politick and seek support from the delegates in subsequent rounds of voting.
Apart from erasing the votes of the 14 million or so Democrats who voted for Biden during the primaries, an open convention will also give Harris a tougher road to travel to gain the White House. It also opens up new possibilities that once seemed unlikely: Apart from Harris, how about Bernie Sanders? Hillary Clinton? California Gov. Gavin Newsom? Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer?
Right now, in this topsy-turvy election year, your guess is as good as those from the experts.
And the 25th Amendment route of having Biden removed from office isn’t necessarily dead.
If the Democratic Party poobahs think their best bet is Harris, and that letting her actually become president for six months might add to her appeal with voters, they could push to have Biden declared mentally unfit.
Only one thing’s certain: Right now, it’s all up in the air.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Defiant Netanyahu To Face U.S. Congress Amid Gaza Tensions – AFP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will become the first foreign leader to address a joint meeting of the two chambers four times, surpassing Britain’s Winston Churchill with three.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that negotiators were “inside the 10-yard line and driving toward the goal line.”
2. Houthis Promise ‘No Red Lines’ In Response To Israeli Attack – UPI
Mohammed Abdulsalam, the head spokesman for Yemen’s Houthi movement, promised that there are “no red lines” in the response by the Yemeni armed faction to an attack carried out by the U.S.-backed Israel.
Israel sent F-15 jet fighters to strike the port city of Hodeidah, killing several people and injuring dozens of others, on Saturday.
The situation has uniquely led the Houthis and the internationally recognized government of Yemen, which are two factions fighting each other amid Yemen’s decade-long civil war, to blast the “terrorist” attack in similar terms, a sign of possible Yemeni solidarity.
3. Turkey Rejects Israeli Accusations Of Arming Hamas As ‘Lies’ – AFP
Turkey slammed Israeli claims Ankara was arming and funding Palestinian militant group Hamas as “lies,” accusing Israel of trying to direct attention away from the war in Gaza.
The angry rebuttal came after Israel’s Foreign Minister Katz accused President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of “supplying arms and money to Hamas to kill Israelis.”
4. Pakistan Declares Israel An Entity Committing War Crimes – UPI
The government of Pakistan has formed a committee to identify businesses operating in the country to boycott after declaring that Israel is an “entity committing war crimes” for the war in Gaza.
“Netanyahu is responsible for atrocities committed by Israeli forces in Palestine, and we consider him a terrorist and demand the world community declare Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu a terrorist,” the declaration said.
5. Russia Says Its Jets Prevented U.S. Bomber Planes Violating State Border – Reuters
Russia’s Defense Ministry said that Russian warplanes prevented two U.S. strategic bombers from violating the state border over the Barents Sea.
The ministry said in a statement that after detecting an air target approaching the Russian borders, the military scrambled MiG-29 and MiG-31 fighter jets. The MiGs identified the planes as two U.S. В-52Н strategic bombers.
The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
6. Deterring ‘Putin’s Russia’ A Must — Germany – D.W.
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has given her backing to the stationing of long-distance missiles in Germany as Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, expands its arsenal.
She said that although Germany wished for a different relationship with Russia, the country under Putin was the greatest security threat to Germany and peace in Europe.
7. Philippines And China Reach South China Sea ‘Arrangement’ – D.W.
“The Philippines and the People’s Republic of China have reached an understanding on the provisional arrangement for the resupply of daily necessities and rotation missions to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal,” the Philippine Foreign Ministry said, using the Filipino name for Second Thomas Shoal.
Increasingly tense maritime confrontations over the shoal have raised concerns about a potential broader conflict that may involve the United States due to a mutual defense pact with the Philippines.
8. China Cuts Key Lending Rates To Revive Flagging Economy – Nikkei Asia
The People’s Bank of China lowered the one-year loan prime rate to 3.35% from 3.45%, marking the first cut since last August.
Unusually, the trimming of the benchmark corporate lending rate came after the central bank held steady the rate on one-year medium-term lending facility loans to financial institutions at 2.5% a week ago. This rate serves as a basis for calculating loan prime rates and is typically seen as a precursor for policy changes.
9. China’s Central Bank Battles Perceptions That Deflation Is Taking Hold – Nikkei Asia
China’s economy faces growing deflationary pressure, and its central bank is trying to contain pessimism by raising interest rates.
This month, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took several steps to halt the slide in government bond yields, which hint at a further slowdown in the economy. The steps range from rare, direct market interventions to warnings through a government-controlled news outlet.
10. Erdogan Says Turkey Ready To Build Cyprus Naval Base ‘If Necessary’- Al Jazeera
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan says Turkey is ready to build a naval base in Cyprus, half a century after its forces invaded the now-divided island.
Erdogan said he flew back to Turkey after visiting Northern Cyprus on Saturday to mark 50 years since Turkey’s invasion. He also accused rival Greece of wanting to establish a naval base in Cyprus, on whose future both sides remain as divided as ever.
11. Why Nigerians Are Praying For The Success Of A New Oil Refinery – BBC
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery is due to start producing petrol next month. Nigerians hope this will increase the availability of petrol and subsequently drop prices.
For decades, Nigerians enjoyed subsidized petrol prices. But last year, incoming President Bola Tinubu stopped the subsidies, saying they were no longer affordable. This led to prices surging by as much as fourfold, and petrol shortages led to queues outside fuel stations.
12. Children With Type 1 Diabetes Prone To ‘Diabetes Distress’ – HealthDay News
Children with Type 1 diabetes are more than twice as likely to develop a mood disorder and 50% more likely to suffer from anxiety than other children, researchers reported in the journal Nature Mental Health.
They also are more than four times as likely to develop behavioral issues like eating or sleep disorders, researchers said. However, the findings suggest this isn’t due to any specific health problem caused by Type 1 diabetes.
Rather, children appear to be vulnerable to “diabetes distress” resulting from the ongoing management of their chronic condition, researchers said.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
