Presidential candidate Kamala Harris still holds a slight lead over former President Donald Trump, but will it last after last week’s interview with CNN? Harris still enjoyed an edge with prospective voters as Labor Day approached, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll suggests, but it might not be sustainable as Trump consolidates his strength among swing-state voters.

In a head-to-head matchup, Harris holds a 48% to 45% advantage over Trump in the September I&I/TIPP Poll, with 1,386 registered voters answering the survey from Aug. 28-Aug. 30. The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points.

Harris appears to have solidified her Democratic base by continuing to run a campaign without a real policy platform that could be discussed or debated by voters, instead appearing at staged events with vice presidential candidate and current Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz in tow. She has 92% of the Democratic vote, while just 5% of her party say they will vote for Trump.

Trump retains a solid 88% of all Republicans, but his support shows some leakage in the latest poll with 9% of GOP party members saying they will vote for Harris. That’s a net loss of 4% for Trump, compared to Harris.

Trump holds a slim lead among independents, at 43% Trump to 42% Harris, with 5% saying they prefer someone else and 9% saying they’re still undecided.

With the margin of error at just under three percentage points, the race remains too close to call. That’s especially the case in a volatile political campaign that has featured an unprecedented amount of tampering with its own primary process, abandoning 14 million votes for President Joe Biden and making Harris the party’s nominee instead.

The picture is further muddied by our second question in the presidential horserace. It asks voters to include third party and independent candidates in their responses.

There, Harris gets 47% to Trump’s 43%. But that’s clouded by the 4% that say they still plan to vote for Kennedy-family scion Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who on Aug. 23 announced he was dropping his campaign for president and would back Trump instead. Another 1% said they would support Green Party candidate Jill Stein, while 1% supported “other.”

It’s unclear whether the 4% are among those who don’t realize that Kennedy dropped out and won’t be on most states’ ballots. But RFK Jr.’s numbers were as high as 12% in early summer, so Harris likely was the recipient of some of those progressive voters. And RFK Jr. still retains a big share of independent and third party voters, with 8% of that group saying they still support RFK, Jr.

Indeed, all told, 11% of the independents support either an independent or third party candidate, including Stein or radical former professor and activist Cornel West.

One other point to make: This year, Trump appears to be doing much better among minorities than in the last election. In 2020, Trump received just 12% of black votes, and 32% of Hispanic votes. Right now, Trump is receiving 23% of the black vote and 33% of the Hispanic vote.

Will these crucial voters show up at the polls? It depends on how interested Americans are in actually voting.

The I&I/TIPP Poll asked voters the following question: “On a scale from 1 to 7, where one means not at all interested and seven means extremely interested, how interested are you in this year’s presidential election?”

Turns out, people are very interested. Among all the responses, 77% said they were “very interested” (combining the two highest scores, 6 and 7) while just 4% said they were “not very interested” (the two lowest scores, 1 and 2). The rest totaled 18%.

Interest among Democrats is 81%, and even higher at 85% for Republicans. But only 66% of indie voters declared themselves very interested. As we asked above, will those voters show up, or stay at home? Black and Hispanic voters are 72% “very interested” in the election, compared to a slightly higher 80% for white Americans.

One other way of gauging whether voters will show up at the polls or not is to ask how strong they support their candidate. Here again, the candidates are neck-and-neck. Some 70% of Republican voters say they support Trump “strongly,” while 29% support him “moderately.” For Harris, the comparable numbers are 72% and 27%, no real statistical difference.

Two final questions helped round out the picture, the first: “Regardless of your candidate preference, who do you expect to win the presidential election in November?”

Here, Harris leads Trump 43% to 39%, largely because Democrats are more sure that their candidate will win (83%) than Republicans (75%). Just 8% of Dems say the matchup is “too close to call,” compared to 12% of Republicans.

The final question on this week’s report: “To the best of your knowledge, if the presidential election were held today, who do you believe most of your neighbors would vote for?”

The intent here is to get at a hidden preference or belief by voters of all stripes. Again, the results are enlightening: Overall, 43% respond Trump, while 39% answer Harris, and 17% aren’t sure.

The question is, are people outside of their own wishes sensing a “wave of silent voters” moving into the Trump column, as happened in 2016 when he trailed Hillary Clinton even as she had what some called “a commanding lead” heading into the final days? Or is something else afoot?

The fact is, Harris by no means has a comfortable lead.

As of Sept. 1, according to the political website Polymarket, which bases election odds on bets made by individual “investors” trying to predict the outcome, the probability of Trump winning (50%) is two points higher than Harris’ 48%. As recently as Aug. 14, the numbers were sharply reversed, with Trump at 43% and Harris at 57% (numbers rounded to nearest digit.)

Meanwhile, a look at the six major swing states followed by the political website indicate Trump’s odds are better than 50% in four of them (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania), and trailing Harris in two (Wisconsin and Michigan).

Other polls, likewise, show Trump leading in key swing states.

These days, polls abound, and one must be careful about those that are less than meticulous in their numbers (for the TIPP’s polling record, look here and here). Some polls show Harris with a widening lead, while the RealClear Politics “poll of polls” shows Harris holding on to a small 1.8 percentage point edge over Trump. Others show Trump with the edge.

With just over 60 days until the election, no single poll is definitive. However, contrary to claims made in the media, the election remains too close to call. It’s vital to understand, as we noted above, that Trump has outperformed his polling numbers, for a variety of reasons. And two months in a volatile political, news-driven contest like this one is an eternity.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

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1. Massive Protests Erupt In Israel After Six Hostages Killed In Gaza – Reuters

Crowds estimated to number up to 500,000 strong demonstrated in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv, and other cities, demanding that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu do more to bring home the remaining 101 hostages, about a third of whom Israeli officials estimate have died.

U.S. President Joe Biden said he was “devastated and outraged” by the death of Israeli American Goldberg-Polin and the other hostages. “Hamas leaders will pay for these crimes. And we will keep working around the clock for a deal to secure the release of the remaining hostages,” he said in a statement.

2. Israel Union Chief Orders ‘Complete Strike’ In Support Of Gaza Hostages – Reuters

The head of Israel’s biggest labor union called for a general strike on Monday to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to bring back Israeli hostages still held by Hamas in Gaza.

Arnon Bar-David, whose Histadrut union represents hundreds of thousands of workers, called for a one-day general strike, which was backed by Israel’s main manufacturers and entrepreneurs in the high-tech sector.

3. Netanyahu Vows ‘To Settle The Score’ With Hamas After Hostage Deaths – AFP

“Those who kill hostages do not want an agreement” for a Gaza truce, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement, telling Hamas leaders, “We will hunt you down, we will catch you, and we will settle the score.”

A senior Hamas official said that several of the six hostages found dead had been “approved” for release in the event of a truce deal, which has yet to be finalized despite months of mediation efforts.

4. Russia Pounds Kyiv With Missiles, Says Ukraine Military – Reuters

Ukraine’s air defense units destroyed more than 10 cruise missiles and nearly ten ballistic missiles, Kyiv’s military administration said on the Telegram messaging app.

The attack came exactly a week after Moscow launched more than 200 missiles and drones on Ukraine, killing seven people and striking energy facilities nationwide in what Kyiv called the war’s “most massive” attack. Russia denies targeting civilians in the 30-month-old war.

5. Russia Says It Will Change Nuclear Doctrine Because Of Western Role In Ukraine – Reuters

The existing nuclear doctrine, set out in a decree by President Vladimir Putin in 2020, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state.

Putin said in June that the nuclear doctrine was a “living instrument” that could change depending on world events. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov’s comments on changing the doctrine were the clearest statement yet that changes would indeed be made.

6. Ukraine’s Long-Range Drones Using Western Tech To Hit Russia – BBC

Western technology and finance are helping Ukraine carry out hundreds of long-range strikes inside Russia. That is despite NATO allies still refusing to give Ukraine permission to use Western-supplied munitions to do so – mostly because of fears of escalation.

Ukraine clearly believes it could do even more with Western-made long-range weapons. So far, allies have rejected Kyiv’s pleas, but that hasn’t stopped Western companies and finance from helping Ukraine.

7. Prague Backs Ukraine Defense On Russian Territory But Acknowledges ‘Dilemma’ – RFE/RL

While Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky insisted Ukraine has a right to defend itself, he acknowledged that Prague’s allies supplying the most sophisticated weapons face “strategic dilemmas.”

Czech President Petr Pavel and outgoing EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell argued publicly on August 30 for abandoning restrictions on how Ukraine can use donated weapons.

8. Taiwan’s Chips Industry ‘Invitation’ For World To Protect Island: Lai – RFA

Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te said the island can use its semiconductor industry to promote the development of its economy and as an invitation to the world to protect it.

Commenting on a rumor circulating in the U.S. that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry could be the very reason for China to decide to attack Taiwan, Lai said he would try his best to protect the island’s security.

9. Final Statement Of Pacific Islands Forum Scrubs Taiwan After China Complaint – RFI

After five days of talks in Tonga, a “cleared” communique was released Friday that reaffirmed a 30-year-old agreement allowing Taiwan to take part in the Pacific Islands Forum.

But the wording immediately angered Chinese diplomats, who pressured Pacific leaders to amend the document. The forum reissued the communique without explanation Saturday morning, conspicuously deleting the paragraph concerning the bloc’s “relations with Taiwan.”

10. German Far Right Hails ‘Historic’ Election Victory In East – BBC

Germany’s anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) is celebrating a “historic success” with a big victory for the far-right party in the eastern state of Thuringia.

The AfD won almost a third of the vote, nine points ahead of the conservative CDU and far ahead of Germany’s three governing parties. Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the results were “bitter” and called on other mainstream parties to form state governments without the far right.

11. Japan Chip Equipment Makers Look Beyond China For Growth – Nikkei Asia

Despite strong Chinese demand, leading Japanese chip-making equipment producers want to diversify their sales channels into countries like India to ensure long-term growth amid the risk of heightening tensions between Beijing and the U.S.

Japanese chip equipment sales will increase by 15% in 2024 and continue growing by double digits, the Semiconductor Equipment Association of Japan predicts. Tokyo Electron, Screen Holdings, and Advantest all upgraded their full-year forecasts when announcing April-June results, with an eye on stronger-than-expected demand.

12. Record $59-B Budget For Japan Defense Eyed – A.P.

The Japanese Defense Ministry ministry’s request for 2025 marks the third year of Japan’s rapid five-year military buildup plan under the government’s current security strategy.

Japan aims to spend 43 trillion yen ($297 billion) through 2027 to double its annual military spending to about 10 trillion yen, making it the world’s third-largest military spender after the United States and China.

13. Trump Says ‘Getting Along’ With North Korea Is A ‘Good Thing’ – RFA

“I got along with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. Remember I walked over … the first person to ever walk over from this country,” Trump said during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania.

Trump’s remarks came after his Democratic rival Kamala Harris vowed not to “cozy up to” dictators like Kim. Trump spearheaded an unprecedented diplomatic push on North Korea when he was president to get it to abandon its nuclear and missile programs.

14. Pope Embarks On Longest, Farthest, And Most Challenging Trip To Asia, With China In The Background – A.P.

Pope Francis will travel 20,390 miles by air during his Sept. 2-13 visit to Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, and Singapore. This is far surpassing any of his previous 44 foreign trips and making it one of the longest papal trips ever, both in terms of days on the road and distances traveled.

Francis’ visit to Singapore, where three-quarters of the population is ethnically Chinese, and Mandarin is an official language, will give him yet another opportunity to reach out to Beijing as the Vatican seeks improved ties for the sake of China’s estimated 12 million Catholics.

15. East Timor Marks 25 Years After Self-Rule Vote – AFP

East Timor’s head of government thanked the international community as his country celebrated the 25th anniversary of its referendum on independence from Indonesia. Visiting United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the world to do more to support the young nation.

Guterres said that after 25 years, the former Portuguese colony still struggled to provide essentials like food, education, and health care, adding that international support had been insufficient.

16. As September Puts Focus On Ovarian Cancer, Experts Stress Early Detection – UPI Health

September is Ovarian Cancer Awareness Month, and again this year, efforts to raise awareness about the difficult-to-detect disease will be held across the country, starting with a presidential proclamation issued Friday.

One of the most confounding things about ovarian cancer is that if it is detected in its early localized stages, the five-year survival rate for patients is 91%, according to the National Cancer Institute.

17. Billions Of People Are Deficient In Essential Micronutrients – HealthDay News

A new study says more than half of people worldwide aren’t getting enough micronutrients essential to human health, including calcium, iron, and vitamins C and E.

These deficiencies are contributing to global malnutrition, as well as health problems like blindness, increased vulnerability to infections, and pregnancy complications, researchers said in The Lancet Global Health.

Republished with permission from TIPP Insights