During the 2020 campaign, a confident Joe Biden appeared in an interview with Charlamagne tha God on ‘The Breakfast Club’ and said, ‘Well, I tell you what, if you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t Black.’
Democratic politicians like Biden have taken Black voters for granted.
Biden got 87% of the Black votes in 2020, which helped him win key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin for electoral college victory. Kamala Harris wants to be sure she can perform as well as Biden and is trying.
At her Atlanta rally, Harris’s campaign had Megan Thee Stallion twerk and prance to highlight the campaign’s joy. More recently, Harris suddenly adopted a southern drawl in her speech. But are these tactics working? Recent TIPP Polls suggest otherwise.
First, let us take our national poll, which shows that only 69% of Blacks support her compared to 89% for Clinton in 2016 and 87% for Biden in 2020. Meanwhile, Trump’s support among Blacks has surged from 8% in 2016 to 24%, underscoring Harris’s uphill battle. 2016 and 2024 results are from CNN’s exit polls.
The same pattern is repeated in our recent battleground polling for American Greatness in Wisconsin and Michigan.
In Wisconsin, Trump’s support increased from 6% in 2016 to 24% in 2024. At the same time, support has declined twenty points from 92% for Clinton in 2016 to 72% for Harris in 2024.
In Michigan, Clinton got 92% of Black votes in 2016, while Harris gets only 82% in 2024. Meanwhile, Trump’s support increased from 6% in 2016 to 14% in 2024.
A significant share of Blacks are color-blind and will base their vote solely on policies and performance. They associate Harris with the failed Biden-Harris policies, not her identity, and many are increasingly attracted to Trump. This trend mirrors the growing discontent around specific issues.
Black Americans Key Concerns
Many Black Americans live paycheck-to-paycheck and are struggling to make ends meet. Thirty-seven percent picked the economy as the country’s most important issue, followed by immigration and border security at 22 percent.
Health care (20%) and homelessness (19%) are also significant concerns. Seventeen percent cited three issues: abortion, crime, and home affordability.
Due to high food prices, which increased 21% under Biden-Harris, nearly 20% are skipping meals. The chart below shows how Black Americans are coping with the situation.
Further, Black Americans are experiencing elevated financial stress. The RCM/TIPP Financial Stress Index, the only measure of its kind, for Black Americans in September is 58.7, 4% higher than its historical average of 54.8.
Immigration
Nearly two-thirds of Blacks say that migrants crossing the border have been a problem in their communities. About a third (37%) view it as a very big problem, and another 27% as a moderate problem.
The unintended consequence of uncontrolled immigration is hurting Democrats. We saw it starting to hurt Biden, and now it’s hurting Harris, too.
Cities are redirecting resources to migrants, slashing budgets, and drastically lowering the quality of life. Crime is rising, and much of it is linked to migrants. Just last week, police reports showed that illegal immigrants accounted for 75% of arrests in midtown Manhattan for assault, robbery, and domestic violence.
Black voters who left Biden over this issue see it as part of the Biden-Harris track record—and they’re not likely to return to Harris’s fold.
Job Sensitivity
Forty-four percent of Black households have at least one person looking for full-time employment, compared to 34% of White households (job seekers).
Also, 36% of Black households are concerned about a member losing their job in the next 12 months, compared to 30% for Whites (job concerned).
We classify any household that fits either of these definitions as job-sensitive. A majority (57%) of Black households are job-sensitive, compared to 46% of Whites.
The Biden-Harris track record over the past 3+ years does not ease their concerns about meeting basic economic needs.
Trump’s Outreach
Trump has been actively reaching out to Black voters, and the results are showing. Both candidates have track records, which helps Blacks realize they enjoyed better economic times under Trump than Biden-Harris. Further, Trump’s growth message resonates with Black voters: 87% consider American economic growth important, 84% consider American prosperity important, and another 88% value opportunity.
While Trump’s message of economic growth has been consistent and clear, Harris’s joy-based campaign is not delivering what Black voters want. They are looking for authenticity and results, not gimmicks and fake joy.
Biden-Harris Administration’s Lawfare
Biden’s lawfare and numerous Trump convictions at the state and federal levels have helped develop a bond between some Black men and Trump. They share the fact that they are unfairly targeted using the law.
Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) noted this dynamic:
As an African American born and raised in the Deep South who had concerns about our justice system as it relates to race, I’m now seeing it play out from a partisan perspective.
The Black men-Trump connection has developed over the past few years, and it is difficult for Harris to break this connection and get them back into her fold.
Black Women
Harris’s position on abortion may not be acceptable to a segment of Black women voters. For example, Madeleine Brame, a Black woman who appeared as a guest on The Ingraham Angle Show on Fox News, says:
I’m not supporting Kamala Harris because I don’t believe in the continued genocide of black babies in the womb through abortion, where she’s pushing tooth and nail, even to the third trimester. You know, I don’t believe in that, and I don’t support that, and I don’t believe that most of the, especially black women in the black community support that.
Unyielding To Pressure
MSNBC’s Joy Reid, took to TikTok and recently warned Black voters:
You’re going to look real crazy being on the other side of that line, particularly as a person of color, but really as anyone who claims to have any connection to the culture, you’re gonna look real weird and real lonely on that side.
Sorry, Ms. Reid. Good try. But for many Blacks, skin color is no criterion. They won’t vote for Harris just because you, Obama, or Oprah say so. They want to decide who is the best based on track record and their policies. That’s the new trajectory. They want real results—not endorsements from the elite.
According to the Daily Mail, Deborah Mattinson, one of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s top advisers, will reportedly travel to the U.S. to brief the Harris 2024 campaign on the party’s winning strategy. Hopefully, Mattinson encourages Harris to be authentic and win back disaffected Black voters.
With Trump gaining ground and Black voters increasingly looking for results over rhetoric, Harris faces an uphill battle to regain their trust. Democrats may find their longstanding support among Black voters eroding significantly in 2024.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Gaza Enters Second School Year Without Education, Heavy Cost For Kids’ Future – A.P.
As Gaza enters its second school year without schooling, most of its children are caught up helping their families in the daily struggle to survive amid Israel’s devastating campaign.
Children trod barefoot on the dirt roads to carry water in plastic jerricans from distribution points to their families living in tent cities teeming with Palestinians driven from their homes. Others wait at charity kitchens with containers to bring back food.
2. Hundreds Of Thousands March Across Israel To Demand Return Of Hostages – UPI
Massive demonstrations demanding a deal to return the remaining Jewish hostages held by Hamas broke out across Israel as protesters flooded into the streets 11 months after the start of the war in Gaza.
One of the largest demonstrations was in Tel Aviv, where videos showed what appeared to be many thousands of protesters choking Begin Road as family members of some of the estimated 101 remaining hostages implored Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike a cease-fire deal with Hamas to gain their release.
3. Zelenskyy Meets Meloni In Italy, Presses For More Arms – AFP
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, her office said, as he presses allies for more weapons in his country’s fight against Russia.
The pair met on the margins of the European House-Ambrosetti forum. Zelenskyy also met German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The gatherings came as Moscow’s forces advanced in the eastern Ukrainian region of Donbas. Russian President Vladimir Putin has declared that capturing the region was his “primary objective” in the conflict.
4. Kyiv Denounces Russian Voting In Occupied Crimea Region – RFE/RL
Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry has denounced Russia’s elections in the occupied Ukrainian region of Crimea, noting that the procedure is a violation of international law.
The ministry added that those involved in “the preparation and holding of the so-called ‘elections’” will be prosecuted. From September 6-8, Russia’s de facto authorities in the occupied region are holding voting for the Russian-imposed Crimean parliament, the municipal legislature of the port city of Sevastopol, and deputies of local councils. Russia has occupied the region since 2014.
5. U.S., UK Spy Chiefs Warn Of Threat To World Order – AFP
Writing in a Financial Times op-ed, Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director William Burns and Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) chief Richard Moore said, “We have no more trusted or esteemed allies” than each other, adding that the partnership would be vital as they “face an unprecedented array of threats.”
The joint article comes just days before UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s visit to Washington on September 13, when President Joe Biden will receive him. The meeting takes place at a time when the two nations’ stances on Israel are diverging.
6. China Calls For Elections To Defuse Myanmar Civil War – Geopolitical Monitor
Myanmar’s Junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, has promised elections in 2025, and China has pledged its support. However, this move by Beijing is one of expediency, not benevolence.
China’s interest in Myanmar has always been primarily economic, with significant investments in infrastructure through the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor, part of the Belt and Road Initiative. This corridor connects China’s southern Yunnan province with Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.
7. UK And Ireland Seek To ‘Reset’ Relations After Starmer Visit – D.W.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer became the first British leader to visit Ireland in five years. Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said: “Today we’re in Dublin to flesh out what a reset actually looks like in a practical sense for our citizens on both islands.”
Britain’s withdrawal from the EU in 2020 following a 2016 referendum created a land border between the UK and the EU on the island of Ireland — namely between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and Ireland, which remained in the EU.
8. France: Thousands Rally Against Barnier’s Appointment As PM – D.W.
Tens of thousands of demonstrators took to the streets of Paris and other French cities to protest Michel Barnier’s appointment as France’s new prime minister.
President Emmanuel Macron appointed Barnier two months after the legislative election delivered a hung parliament. Barnier is a member of Les Républicains, or the Republicans, which came in fourth. No grouping won an overall majority.
9. Venezuela’s Opposition Leader Leaves Country For Spain – BBC
The Venezuelan government has said opposition presidential candidate Edmundo González has left the country, seeking asylum in Spain.
Mr González has been in hiding, and a warrant was issued for his arrest after the opposition disputed July’s presidential election result – in which the government-controlled National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Nicolás Maduro the winner.
10. Argentina Calls On ICC To Order Arrest Of Venezuela’s Maduro – D.W.
The Argentinian Foreign Ministry argues that the actions taken by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s government since the ballot could constitute crimes against humanity.
The disputed results of the July election have plunged Venezuela into a state of turmoil. At least 23 people have died, dozens injured, and thousands detained in the protests that have since ensued.
11. U.S. Confirms First Human Bird Flu Case With No Known Animal Exposure – BBC
The patient, who is from Missouri, was treated in a hospital and has since recovered, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said.
It is the 14th human case of bird flu in the U.S. in 2024 and the first without a known occupational exposure to infected animals, according to the CDC. The agency said that, based on their current data, the risk to the general public remains low.
Bird flu is a viral disease that primarily affects birds and other animals. Human infections are rare.
12. Study: Nearly 1 In 4 U.S. Adults Under 40 Have High Blood Pressure – HealthDay News
Nearly a quarter of people ages 18 to 39 have high blood pressure, with readings above the healthy level of 130/80, the first among a pair of studies found.
According to the second study, blood pressure is even a problem for school-age children, with nearly 14% of children aged 8 to 19 having elevated or high blood pressure.
“A healthy diet and regular exercise are important to reducing the risk of high blood pressure,” said researcher Ahlia Sekkarie. “Ensuring that youth are eating a healthy diet and getting enough physical activity is crucial to helping prevent heart disease and stroke.”
13. Voluntary Recall Of Apple Juice With High Levels Of Arsenic Expands – UPI Health
According to a U.S. Food and Drug Administration notice provided by Walmart, 133,500 cases of apple juice made by Refresco Beverages sold at Walmart, Aldi, Walgreens, and other retail outlets have now joined an earlier voluntary recall of nearly 10,000 cases issued last month for Walmart.
Exposure to inorganic arsenic is associated with adverse human health effects, including cancer, diabetes, adverse birth outcomes, and cardiovascular and neurodevelopmental effects.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
