We are proud to share our 2024 performance with our readers. The TIPP Poll is the only national poll to correctly identify the winners of the last six presidential elections. By various measures, it consistently ranks as the most accurate. Here, we provide the data to substantiate this claim.
2024 Presidential Election
TIPP’s final call was Trump +1 vs. Actual results – Trump +1.6
2020 Presidential Election
TIPP’s final call was Biden +4 vs. Actual results – Biden +4.5
Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results
2016 Presidential Election
TIPP was one of only two polls to call Donald Trump’s victory in 2016—a bold prediction that went against the tide when ten other pollsters confidently pointed to Clinton. We weren’t afraid to go out on a limb because we trusted our data and our methods. While others played it safe, we stuck to what we saw and were right. Critics can nitpick about the popular vote, but the Electoral College decides the presidency, and we called it. Ultimately, being bold and unafraid to stand apart made all the difference.
The IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump’s victory in 2016, as noted by Fox News. In fact, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.
Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016
“The gold standard going forward.” — The Hill
“IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates.” — USA Today
“Investor’s Business Daily was the best poll.” — Bill O’Reilly, The O’Reilly Factor
“This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right.” — Investor’s Business Daily
“Mayur’s firm Technometrica conducts the Investor’s Business Daily Poll, which was rated the “most accurate” poll of the three prior elections. Make that four.” — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)
“Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur.” — The Record (NorthJersey.com)
“IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster.” — Mediaite
2012 Presidential Election
The IBD/TIPP Poll earned the distinction of being the most accurate national presidential poll in the 2012 election from news organizations such as The New York Times and Investor’s Business Daily.
The Little-Known Pollster That Bested All The Others — Bloomberg Businessweek
Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race — The New York Times
Record After 2012 Vote Shows – Again – IBD/TIPP Poll Is Nation’s Best — Investor’s Business Daily
2008 and 2004 Presidential Elections
Our poll got the 2008 election precisely correct. In the 2004 presidential election, the IBD/TIPP Poll came closer than any other national poll to mirroring the actual popular vote margin. An analysis of the polling results from Investor’s Business Daily can be found here.
We deeply appreciate your trust and support as we continue to deliver the accuracy and excellence you’ve come to expect. Thank you for allowing us to be a part of your journey to stay informed.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Security Concerns Prompt United Nations To Suspend Food Aid Into Gaza – UPI
Two recent convoys have been looted by armed gangs near the Kerem Shalom crossing, and officials called on Israel to maintain law and order, according to UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini.
Kerem Shalom is the main route used to deliver aid to the more than 2 million people in Gaza, which is said to be on the brink of famine. The announcement of the pause in deliveries at Kerem Shalom follows the deaths of three people employed by World Central Kitchen, a food charity, and two others in an Israeli strike Saturday.
2. U.S. Blames Al-Assad’s Reliance On Russia, Iran For Loss Of Aleppo Control – AFP
Syria’s “reliance on Russia and Iran,” along with its refusal to move forward with a 2015 peace process outlined by the UN Security Council, “created the conditions now unfolding,” National Security Council spokesman Sean Savett said in a statement.
He added: “At the same time, the United States has nothing to do with this offensive, which is led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a designated terrorist organization.”
3. Russian Warplanes Bomb Aleppo Rebels; Iran Says Consulate Attacked – RFE/RL
The air strikes came a day after Islamists and their Turkish-backed allies breached Syria’s Aleppo in a surprise offensive against forces of the President Bashar al-Assad in the battle-torn Middle East nation.
The Russian and Iranian foreign ministers expressed support for longtime ally Syria, according to Iranian state media, which quoted Iran’s Abbas Araqchi as telling Russia’s Sergei Lavrov in a call that the attacks were part of an Israeli-U.S. plan to destabilize the region.
4. Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Wants To Retake Occupied Land By Diplomacy – Kyodo News
In an interview with Kyodo News at the presidential palace in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said support for his country from its partners is “not enough” and urged NATO to invite Kyiv for membership talks with the transatlantic military alliance as soon as possible.
Responding to all questions in Ukrainian, he frankly admitted it is difficult to retake by force some of the Russian-occupied parts of the country, including Crimea that Russia annexed in 2014.”We do have to find diplomatic solutions,” he said.
5. Putin Signs Record Russian Budget, One-Third For Defense – UPI
More than 32% of the nation’s 2025 spending plan, or about $126 million, is earmarked for defense, a record. That amounts to 13.5 trillion rubles, up about 4% from this year’s military budget.
Putin signed the spending plan as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskty, who has been on a nearly non-stop world fundraising tour, met with European Union officials who have traveled to Ukraine to offer Zelensky support.
6. China Blasts U.S. Arms Sale To Taiwan, President Lai’s Visit To Hawaii – Al Jazeera
China has pledged “resolute countermeasures” following the United States’ decision to approve more arms sales to Taiwan, just hours before the island’s President William Lai Ching-te made a transit through the state of Hawaii, which further angered Beijing.
In a statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the U.S. arms sale to Taiwan sends “a wrong signal” to the island’s Taiwan independence forces and undermines U.S.-China relations.
7. China Plans Big Data Warning System To Prevent Public Killings – RFA
China’s Communist Party is stepping up the use of big data to predict people’s behavior in a bid to identify “social risks” and prevent violent attacks on members of the public in the wake of the car killings in Zhuhai earlier this month.
Citing President Xi Jinping’s instructions to officials in the wake of the Nov. 11 fatal vehicle attack that left 35 dead in Zhuhai, party law enforcement czar Ting Bai told officials that authorities should start responding to potential threats with preventive action “in a graded and classified manner.”
8. Boss Of Car Making Giant Stellantis Abruptly Quits – BBC
Carlos Tavares, the boss of car-making giant Stellantis, which owns brands including Chrysler, Vauxhall, Jeep, Fiat, and Peugeot, has stepped down with immediate effect.
Tavares’ abrupt exit comes two months after Stellantis issued a profit warning. In a statement announcing Mr. Tavares’ departure, Henri de Castries, Stellantis’ senior independent director said “in recent weeks different views have emerged which have resulted in the Board and the CEO coming to today’s decision.”
9. Negotiators Fail To Agree On UN Treaty To Curb Global Plastic Pollution – Al Jazeera
Countries negotiating a global treaty to curb plastic pollution have failed to reach an agreement, with more than 100 nations advocating for a cap on plastic production and a handful of oil-producing countries only willing to target plastic waste.
The fifth United Nations Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee (INC-5) meeting in Busan, South Korea was intended to be the final session. It was hoped the meeting would produce a legally binding global treaty.
10. U.S. Money Supply Recently Did Something Not Observed Since the Great Depression – and It Historically Signals a Big Move in Stocks – The Motley Fool
The two most common measures of the U.S. money supply are M1 and M2. The former accounts for cash and coins in circulation, along with travelers’ checks and demand deposits from a checking account.
The M2 money supply takes everything from M1 and adds in money market accounts, savings accounts, and certificates of deposit (CDs) below $100,000. This is still money that consumers have access to and can spend, but it requires more effort to access.
Looking back to the start of 1870, there have been only five instances where M2 fell by 2% or more year-over-year: 1878, 1893, 1921, 1931-1933, and 2023. The four prior instances all correlate with periods of depression for the U.S. economy and double-digit unemployment.
11. Coinbase Policy Chief Expects Speedy Approval Of Crypto Laws Following Trump’s Victory – CNBC
Faryar Shirzad, Coinbase’s chief policy officer, said he sees crypto legislation passing Congress “fairly quickly” following President-elect Donald Trump’s win.
“I think we have the most pro-crypto Congress ever history,” Shirzad told CNBC in an interview but noted there’s only a “small” chance the crypto legislation is considered in the so-called “lame duck” post-election period.
Despite this, he expects “significant movement and hopefully passage of both market structure legislation and stablecoin legislation” in 2025.
12. 208 Million Americans Are Classified As Obese Or Overweight, According To New Study – The Conversation
Nearly half of adolescents and three-quarters of adults in the U.S. were classified as being clinically overweight or obese in 2021. The rates have more than doubled compared with 1990.
Without urgent intervention, the study forecasts that more than 80% of adults and close to 60% of adolescents will be classified as overweight or obese by 2050. Obesity has slowed health improvements and life expectancy in the U.S. compared with other high-income nations.
Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
