(The Center Square) – The average price of a gallon of diesel fuel in the United States climbed almost 40 cents in the last two weeks, reaching a new 2026 high of $5.65 on Wednesday as national inventories declined to a multi-decade low ahead of peak annual consumption in the fall.
The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows national inventories of Ultra-Low Sulfur Distillate Fuel, which powers everything from farm machinery to railways, trucking and shipping fleets, dropped this week to 103.6 million barrels, about 13% below the five-year average level for this time of year and the lowest since 2003.
Agricultural demand for diesel peaks in the fall during the harvest season while truckers are the busiest hauling freight in the months before Christmas, so national demand tends to rise from late summer into December.
“Diesel is the cost base of everything. Every container, every tractor, every locomotive, every mine truck – you get the idea,” commodities analyst and former Carlyle Chief Strategy Officer Jeff Currie wrote on X last week. Currie added: “That pass-through will reach into trucking, food and producer prices, and it is barely getting started.”
Aaron Decker, chief executive officer of commercial fuel payment network operator Multi-Service Fuel Card, said in an interview with FreightWaves that national inventories are low because U.S. exports are at record levels while international buyers look to replace supplies from refineries in Russia, China and other countries.
“We’re not in a crude crisis, we’re in a refining crisis,” Decker told FreightWaves.
While the demand for diesel is expected to increase significantly in the weeks ahead, international producers have scaled back production by choice or because of damage from drone and missile strikes.
Russia, the second-biggest global supplier of diesel fuel in recent years, is set to extend an export ban through September in the face of persistent shortages as many of the nation’s refineries remain idle following repeated Ukrainian drone attacks. China, another top global diesel exporter, has restricted its refineries’ overseas sales since the war began to ensure that domestic supplies are sufficient to meet demand.
While the nation’s refineries are operating at about 97% of their capacity, a level higher than the typical 90% to 92%, according to Energy Department data, U.S. exports of diesel and related fuels are up by around 28% compared with the same time last year.
The United States, the world’s largest exporter of distillates since 2011, shipped 1.79 million barrels per day in the most recent week, agency data shows.
The all-time record high price for U.S. diesel was $5.81 per gallon in June 2022, about 19 cents a gallon more than today. The price of U.S. diesel is up almost $2.00 in the last year, Energy Department data shows.
Days of Supply – a measure of how long the nation’s distillate stockpiles can supply domestic demand without new refinery production—dropped to 25 days in the most recent week, Energy Department data shows. Typically, domestic inventories sit at about 32-to-35 days of supply range.
