BS BULLETIN:

• Bill O’Reilly says Republicans have a “major problem” in Texas as Democrat James Talarico threatens GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton.
• Recent polling has shown Talarico running ahead of or even with Paxton in a state Republicans haven’t lost statewide in more than three decades.
• Republicans are now pouring tens of millions of dollars into Texas to help Paxton survive.

Bill O’Reilly has looked at the numbers coming out of Texas, and he’s sounding the alarm.

“This is a major problem for the GOP,” O’Reilly wrote Monday as he assessed Republican Ken Paxton’s increasingly uncomfortable U.S. Senate race against Democrat James Talarico.

The problem, according to O’Reilly, is pretty simple: President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton; Trump-backed candidates have overwhelmingly prevailed in Republican primaries this year — and yet Paxton is struggling against Talarico as November approaches. Recent polling has shown Talarico either leading Paxton or locked in a virtual tie. Texas Republicans haven’t lost a statewide election in more than three decades.

O’Reilly did find one reason for conservatives not to head for the bunker just yet.

“Despite the polling, the Republicans are actually getting a break because James Talarico is a nut,” he wrote.

But Republicans clearly aren’t treating Texas like the safe red-state layup it once was.

Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC launched a $10 million advertising campaign to boost Paxton earlier this month. Now a group connected to the Senate Leadership Fund has booked more than $51 million in Texas television advertising. That’s an extraordinary amount of political firepower being deployed to defend a Senate seat in Texas.

Paxton has also been badly outraised byTalarico. The Washington Post reported last week that public polling showed Paxton tied or slightly behind his Democratic opponent while trailing him financially by tens of millions of dollars.

Trump himself has jumped directly into the rescue operation. At last week’s Republican midterm convention in Dallas, the president urged supporters to rally behind Paxton and promised to help him win — even while repeatedly ribbing the attorney general from the stage.

“I don’t really like the way he looks,” Trump joked before quickly adding that Paxton “was our greatest attorney general and he deserves to go to the United States Senate.”

Behind the jokes, however, Republicans know what is at stake.

Losing a Senate race in Texas wouldn’t merely cost the GOP one seat. It would be an electoral earthquake in a state that has served as one of the party’s most dependable anchors for decades — and could help determine control of the Senate for the final two years of Trump’s presidency.

DBS WIRE SOURCES:

• Mediaite — Bill O’Reilly warns Republicans they have a ‘major problem’ in Texas
• Washington Post — Republicans try to aid Paxton in his tight Texas Senate race
• Axios — Trump taps massive war chest to help embattled Paxton in Texas
• Texas Tribune — Senate Republicans mobilize big money for Ken Paxton
• Texas Tribune — GOP midterm convention comes to Dallas as Texas race tightens