Rents are dropping where ICE is busiest — DHS says that’s no coincidence

BS BULLETIN:

DHS says some cities and states cooperating heavily with ICE are also seeing substantial rent declines.
The agency pointed to San Antonio, Austin, Dallas, Houston, Miami, Phoenix, Atlanta, Nashville and New Orleans.
Federal Reserve research supports the broader premise that unauthorized immigration can push local rents higher — but the latest rent declines have other drivers too.

Rent is dropping in a number of American cities, and the Department of Homeland Security says immigration enforcement deserves some of the credit.

DHS made the case Friday, pointing to Texas in particular.

“DHS is reducing your rent, especially in states that cooperate with @ICEgov,” the department said.

According to figures cited by DHS, Texas accounted for roughly a quarter of ICE arrests in July while several of its major cities recorded significant rent declines. San Antonio was down 4.8 percent, Austin 4.3 percent, and Dallas and Houston roughly 3 percent.

DHS is reducing your rent, especially in states that cooperate with @ICEgov.

Texas accounted for about a quarter of ICE arrests in July and posted the country’s sharpest rent drops, with San Antonio down 4.8%, Austin 4.3%, Dallas and Houston about 3%.
Miami’s average rent is…

— Homeland Security (@DHSgov) September 25, 2026

The department also highlighted declines of 2.6 percent in Miami, 4.2 percent in Phoenix, 3.2 percent in Atlanta, 5.3 percent in Nashville and 8 percent in New Orleans.

DHS tied the numbers to research showing that unauthorized immigration increases demand for housing. There is evidence for that broader argument.

A March working paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas examined the surge in unauthorized immigration between 2021 and 2024 and found that unauthorized immigrant inflows increased local rents and home prices without producing a corresponding increase in housing supply.

Texas accounted for around 25% of ICE arrests in July and led the nation in rent DROPS:

San Antonio: -4.8%
Austin: -4.3%
Dallas & Houston: ~3%

Deportations = increased affordability for Americans.

— Lance Gooden (@Lancegooden) September 25, 2026

A separate Brookings paper released this week found that the broader post-pandemic immigration surge raised rents by an estimated 1.4 to 1.6 percent. But that doesn’t establish that ICE activity alone produced the rent declines DHS highlighted.

The rental market was already cooling. Realtor.com reported this month that August marked the 37th consecutive month of year-over-year rent declines for studio through two-bedroom properties in the country’s 50 largest metropolitan areas. Increased apartment supply, vacancies and landlord concessions have also been putting downward pressure on rents.

Still, immigration matters to the equation for a fairly uncomplicated reason: people need somewhere to live.

Reducing population growth reduces some housing demand, just as adding millions of residents increases it. The argument now is over how much of the recent rent relief can legitimately be credited to immigration enforcement.

MY QUICK TAKE

For years, Washington discussed immigration as though millions of additional people could arrive without affecting the number of apartments, jobs, classrooms or hospital beds Americans were competing for.

Now we have actual research showing that the immigration surge did increase rents. That doesn’t mean every falling rent check should be mailed to ICE headquarters.

But perhaps “millions of additional people need millions of additional places to live” shouldn’t have required a Federal Reserve working paper to enter the conversation.