BS BULLETIN:
- Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger acknowledged placing prediction-market trades on whether Joe Biden would issue preemptive pardons — including one specifically on whether Kinzinger himself would receive one.
- Biden ultimately did pardon Kinzinger and the other members of the Jan. 6 committee before leaving office.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is now investigating the trades. Kinzinger says he had no inside information and made just $823.
There are political bets.
And then there is betting on whether the president of the United States is going to pardon you.
Former Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over trades he made on prediction market Kalshi in late 2024 and early 2025.
One market asked whether President Joe Biden would issue preemptive pardons before leaving office.
The other involved a slightly more personally relevant question:
Would Biden pardon Adam Kinzinger?
Kinzinger’s answer, apparently, was worth putting money on.
He told reporters he made roughly 25 trades during that period and provided screenshots showing he ultimately made $823 on the pardon-related wagers.
And then, on Jan. 20, 2025, Biden issued preemptive pardons to Kinzinger and the other members and staff of the House Jan. 6 committee, saying they should be protected from what he described as unjustified prosecutions by the incoming Trump administration.
Kinzinger insists there was nothing improper about his trades.
He says he had no nonpublic information, never spoke with anyone about whether he would be pardoned and was no longer a member of Congress when he placed the bets.
“I had no inside information.”
The amount involved was also hardly Wall Street territory.
Kinzinger says he made $823.
Still, Kalshi reportedly flagged the activity and referred the matter to the CFTC, which subsequently opened an investigation.
The regulatory question matters because Kalshi’s rules restrict trading by people who are direct participants in the event being wagered upon, and federal rules prohibit trading based on material nonpublic information.
No finding of wrongdoing has been announced, and the existence of an investigation does not establish that Kinzinger violated either rule.
There is also a rather spectacular footnote.
Kinzinger has publicly warned about the dangers of prediction markets and political corruption.
Now federal regulators are examining his own prediction-market activity.
Not because he wagered on who would win Iowa.
Not because he picked an interest-rate move.
He wagered on whether Adam Kinzinger would receive a presidential pardon.
You have to admire politics for continually inventing sentences nobody previously realized needed to exist.
MY QUICK TAKE
Eight hundred twenty-three dollars.
That’s it.
Imagine having your name appear in the sentence: “Federal regulators are investigating his bets on his own presidential pardon…”
…and the financial upside is $823.
That doesn’t establish wrongdoing. Kinzinger says he knew nothing in advance, and regulators have not announced otherwise.
But as political optics go, this one arrived gift-wrapped.
You served on the Jan. 6 committee.
You wondered whether Biden might pardon you.
And apparently at some point the thought occurred: “Can I get odds on that?”
Las Vegas couldn’t invent this stuff.
DBS WIRE SOURCES
- Twitchy — Feds probe Adam Kinzinger for placing bets on his own pardon
- CNN report — Federal regulator probing Kinzinger over pardon bet
- New York Magazine — Trump critic faces probe over Biden-pardon bets
- The Washington Sun — Former Rep. Kinzinger under investigation for Kalshi trades
- Decrypt — CFTC investigating Kinzinger over Kalshi pardon bets
