From TIPP Insights:
A report of the CSIS International Security Program, released last week, put forth possible outcomes should China launch an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) developed a wargame involving various scenarios and ran it twenty-four times. While the report stated, “In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan.” But the crushing cost of such a conflict prompted the authors to note, “Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.”
Today’s visit by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Washington is a significant step in strengthening measures to check China’s unbridled expansionist desires in the Pacific Ocean. The island nation recently took the historic step to raise its defense spending to two percent of its GDP. The country is gradually moving away from its pacifist constitution and attaining robust deterrence and first-strike capabilities.
Besides Beijing’s threatening military power and its “right to use force” to unify Taiwan, Japan is also caught in the crosshairs of Pyongyang’s nuclear missile program. The threat is so real that the Japanese Prime Minister said, “Ukraine today may be Asia tomorrow.”
The island nation’s efforts to bolster security and defense have a broader impact. China’s aggressive attempts to dominate the South China Sea and the international shipping routes crisscrossing the Pacific have led to skirmishes with its neighbors far and near, from Australia to the Philippines. The U.S. has long maintained that international waters must remain safe and accessible for all.
A Japan with a well-trained military, advanced systems, sophisticated weapons capable of striking enemy territories, and enhanced intelligence sharing is an asset to American efforts to maintain peace in the Pacific. For this, Tokyo will likely request Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 1,000 miles. The long-range strike capability that brings the Chinese mainland within striking range of Japan is certain to deter the communist nation.
Japan also has a crucial role in America’s defense of Taiwan. The reshuffling of U.S. Marines into a Marine Littoral Regiment, on Okinawa, on the southern end of the Japanese islands not far from Taiwan, bolsters America’s ability to defend Taipei. Japan’s location in the Pacific makes it a critical base to launch operations, should they become necessary.
Beyond defense ties, strong economic relations between Tokyo and Washington are necessary to thwart China’s hold over the global economy. Technological cooperation, especially in semiconductors and biotechnology, will likely be furthered. Japan has expressed “in principle” willingness to tighten export controls to impede China’s chip-making industry. A concerted international effort is necessary to thwart Beijing’s plans to dominate critical sectors.
Washington’s open and clear support for Japanese military enhancement and greater economic cooperation in key areas is likely to send a strong message to many. Prime Minister Kishida can expect greater cooperation and fewer “concerns” at home to pursue his ambitious plans to secure Japan’s territory. On the other hand, Beijing will view the stronger ties as a deterrent to its military ambitions. A concerted economic strategy will also topple China’s place in the global supply chain and threaten its position of dominance over technologies of the future.
Close ties between Washington and Tokyo, alert to the common threat posed by China, are the need of the hour.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
