A few days ago, two Iranian warships, IRIS Makran and IRIS Dena, docked in Rio de Janeiro after Brazilian President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva’s government granted the necessary permissions. One was a destroyer equipped with a range of defense and attack systems. The docking of the warships sparked concern among the international community that has been trying to isolate the right-wing Iranian regime.
But Brazil’s move is not unexpected. Last month, Reuters reported that the Brazilian government had bowed to U.S. pressure and declined requests for the Iranian vessels to call on the country as it coincided with Lula’s visit to Washington. Now that the visit is over, Rio is courting Tehran and playing up its neutral card.
President Lula is pursuing diplomacy with Iran as part of his efforts to boost Brazil’s standing on the international stage. Lula and Tehran go way back. More than a dozen years ago, he met with Iran’s then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to broker a nuclear deal between Tehran and Washington. President Lula has also strongly opposed U.S.-backed sanctions against Iran for failure to adhere to the nuclear deal.
The Brazilian president has made it clear that he will endeavor to build closer ties with the U.S., unlike his far-right predecessor Jair Bolsonaro. At the same time, he plans to pursue and protect Brazil’s interests in the face of the West’s criticism and displeasure. Granting permission for warships to call on a Rio port is a symbolic gesture of support for Iran, particularly in the face of international pressure.
Brazil is a key ally of the U.S. in the south. China’s growing influence in the Southern Hemisphere has been marked as a cause of “concern.” America is actively pursuing diplomatic and military channels to counter the threat. With its vast coastline and strategic geographic location, Brazil has a crucial role in resisting China’s domination plans.
But with the docking of the warships, there are fears that Iran’s use of Rio’s ports could pose a security threat. And such fears are not far-fetched. The Iranian regime’s support for extremist groups like Hezbollah is well documented. The U.S. has designated the group as a terrorist organization. The group has been accused of acting as a proxy militia for Tehran and carrying out attacks against Israel and other U.S. allies. Rio is too close to home to ignore Iranian naval vessels’ activities completely. Further, in January, the newspaper La Estrella de Panama reported that Tehran had plans to position warships in the Panama Canal as part of its campaign to boost its presence in Latin America. More than 14,000 vessels sailed through the 50-mile waterway in 2022, and the Panama Canal accounts for 5% of world maritime trade.
Ironically, America’s “key ally,” which is extending a warm welcome to Iran, is also a member of the BRICS. The intergovernmental organization has Russia, India, China, and South Africa as its other four members. The geopolitical bloc has steadily coordinated multilateral policies and increased cooperation across domains. Such initiatives among emerging economies have posed new challenges to traditional world powers, the U.S., the UK, and Europe. The growing influence of non-traditional powers has led to the emergence of new alliances, though informal, and the flouting of international sanctions at crucial junctures.
Despite America’s dissatisfaction, Brazil looked the other way and allowed Iran to dock its ships. The episode illustrates the waning U.S. influence in various parts of the world under the leadership of the Biden administration.
The emerging world order points to a multi-polar world where countries cooperate on common agendas and pursue national interests instead of blindly aligning with a bloc. The new dynamic calls for mutually beneficial alliances based on equality and shared interests. Rather than pressure or unilateral sanctions, partnerships may be the way forward.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics And Geoeconomics
#1. Russia Says It Will Only Renew Grain Deal If Its Own Exports Are Unblocked – Reuters
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered by the UN and Turkey last year, expires on March 18 and cannot be extended unless all parties agree. Russia is unhappy with aspects of the deal.
Russia’s agricultural exports have not been explicitly targeted by Western sanctions. Still, Moscow says restrictions on its payments, logistics, and insurance industries are a “barrier” to exporting its grains and fertilizers.
#2. Ukraine Clings On In Bakhmut Despite Relentless Russian Attacks – Al Jazeera
Ukrainian forces were hanging onto their positions in the devastated eastern city of Bakhmut amid constant attacks as Russian troops pushed to claim their first significant victory for over half a year.
Russia says seizing the salt-mining town of Bakhmut, now the site of the longest and bloodiest battle since Moscow invaded its neighbor just over a year ago, would put it on a path to securing full control of the rest of the strategic Donbas industrial region, one of its main objectives.
#3. Finland Begins Building Fence On Border With Russia As MPs Vote To Join NATO – RFI
Finland has begun constructing a 200-kilometer fence on its border with Russia to prevent Moscow from using migrant flows for political purposes.
This comes as Finnish MPs voted overwhelmingly to join NATO, ahead of ratifications from Hungary and Turkey.
Finland’s borders are secured primarily by light wooden fences, mainly designed to stop livestock from wandering to the wrong side.
Fearing that Moscow could use migrants to exert political pressure on Helsinki, NATO candidate Finland in July passed new amendments to its Border Guard Act to facilitate the erection of sturdier fences.
#4. U.S. Seeks Allies’ Backing For Possible China Sanctions Over Ukraine War – Sources – Reuters
According to U.S. officials and other sources, the U.S. sounds out close allies about the possibility of imposing new sanctions on China if Beijing provides military support to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
The consultations, which are still preliminary, are intended to drum up support from a range of countries, especially those in the wealthy Group of 7 (G7), to coordinate support for any possible restrictions.
It was not clear what specific sanctions Washington would propose. The conversations have not been previously disclosed.
#5. China’s Growth Target, Stimulus In Focus For New Leadership – Bloomberg
Economists expect Premier Li Keqiang — who will deliver his last government work report on Sunday at the annual National People’s Congress to outline a target GDP growth higher than 5% for 2023.
That’s after the economy expanded just 3% last year, missing the official goal by a wide margin.
This year’s congress also takes on an added significance as it will usher in a new set of leaders responsible for economic policy — like the premier and economic czar — who are now closely tied to President Xi Jinping.
Analysts are watching for any possible policy shifts.
#6. China On Track To Dominate Development Of Critical Future Technologies, ASPI Report Says – ABC News
The report says the U.S. is the leading innovator in only seven technologies — including quantum computing and vaccines — and ranks second to China in most other categories.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) “critical tech tracker” found China is beating the U.S. in 37 of 44 technologies likely to propel innovation, growth, and military power in coming decades, including artificial intelligence, robotics, biotechnology, advanced manufacturing, and quantum technology.
ASPI’s Jamie Gaida, who co-authored the report, said while China’s research edge did not translate into technological superiority right now, Beijing had built the foundations to position itself as the world’s leading science and technology power.
#7. Taiwan Sees Second Chinese Air Incursion As U.S. Agrees Arms Sale – Al Jazeera
Taiwan reported a large-scale Chinese air force incursion for a second day running, just as the U.S. approved the potential sale of $619m in weapons – including hi-tech missiles for Taiwan’s F-16 fighter jets.
China has not commented on its recent military activities near Taiwan. In January, Beijing said it staged combat drills around the island to “resolutely counter the provocative actions of external forces and Taiwan independence separatist forces.”
Washington’s announcement of the potential sale of almost $620m in hi-tech arms to Taiwan will further heighten tensions between the U.S. and Beijing.
#8. At G20 Meeting, India’s Modi Says ‘Global Governance Has Failed’ – Al Jazeera
Speaking at the Group of 20 (G20) foreign ministers’ meeting opening in New Delhi, Indian PM Narendra Modi said that countries should acknowledge that multilateralism is currently “in crisis.”
“The experience of the last few years – financial crisis, climate change, pandemic, terrorism, and wars – clearly shows that global governance has failed,” Modi said in a recorded statement.
India holds the G20 presidency this year. But New Delhi’s longstanding security ties with Moscow have put the host of Thursday’s meeting in an awkward position.
As a major buyer of Russian armaments and energy, India has not directly condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
#9. U.S. Condemns Smotrich’s ‘Repugnant, Disgusting’ Call For Israel To Wipe Out Huwwara – Middle East Eye
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price called on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other top officials to “publicly and clearly” disavow Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s comments.
Earlier on Wednesday, Smotrich, who in addition to being finance minister is responsible for Israel’s civil administration in the occupied West Bank, said Israel should “wipe out” the Palestinian village of Huwwara in the wake of a violent rampage by settlers on Sunday.
“The Palestinian village of Huwwara should be wiped out. The state needs to do it and not private citizens,” he said.
#10. Iranian President Calls For Probe As More Schoolgirls Fall Ill – RFE/RL
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has ordered an investigation into a wave of reported illnesses at girls’ schools across the country.
Some have alleged that the attacks are retaliation for students and women leading anti-government protests.
Raisi assigned Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani Fazli to head the probe after hundreds of girls have reported falling ill at school since November.
The first incident is believed to have occurred in November, when 18 schoolgirls in the city of Qom were taken to a hospital after complaining of symptoms that included nausea, headaches, coughing, breathing difficulties, heart palpitations, and numbness and pain in their hands or legs.
It is unclear what may be causing the illnesses, though some affected have said they smelled chlorine or cleaning agents, while others said they thought they smelled tangerines in the air.
#11. Saudi Arabia, UK Sign Defense Agreement – Al Arabiya
Saudi Arabia’s Defense Minister, Prince Khalid bin Salman met with Britain’s Defense Minister, Ben Wallace, in the Saudi capital Riyadh.
During the meeting, a declaration of intent regarding the Kingdom’s participation in the Future Combat Air System (FCAS) program was signed, according to the Saudi Press Agency (SPA).
The Future Combat Air System (FCAS), first announced in 2017 by French President Emmanuel Macron and then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, is designed to replace the Eurofighter and the Dassault Rafale with a combination of manned and unmanned aircraft from 2040.
#12. Myanmar Junta Sentences Nearly 2,400 People In February Alone – RFA
The monthly total doubles the total imprisoned since the 2021 coup to nearly 4,700.
Statistics from the Thailand-based Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, or AAPP, showed that between the coup and Jan. 31, 2023, the junta had sentenced 2,299 people, but in February 2023 alone, it sentenced 2,384.
Government opponents said the surge in imprisonments is an attempt by the junta to instill fear among the public, many of whom remain resistant to accepting junta rule more than two years after the military ousted the country’s democratically elected government.
#13. North Korean Leader Calls For Attaining Grain Production Goal Amid Reports Of Severe Food Shortages – Yonhap
NK leader Kim Jong-un called on all farms nationwide to focus on stepping up their grain production and meeting their goals for this year “without fail,” ending a four-day session of a key party meeting.
Pyongyang kicked off the meeting as its food situation seems to be worsening amid deepening economic challenges caused by border lockdowns to combat the COVID-19 pandemic and global sanctions on its nuclear and missile programs.
Observers said the North’s rare move to convene a meeting on grain output appears intended to allay public grievances amid reports of famine in the poverty-stricken country.
#14. Aboriginal Spears Taken By Captain James Cook To Be Returned To Australia – BBC
Aboriginal spears taken by British explorer James Cook and his landing party when they first arrived in Australia in 1770 will be returned to the local Sydney clan.
The four spears are believed to be the last remaining of dozens collected by the first colonialists.
Cambridge’s Trinity College in the UK, where they are kept, has agreed to return them after a 20-year campaign by Indigenous people.
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Republished with permission from TIPP Insights
